Ace,

Leave that Rasmussen crap alone. Check out The Horserace Blog and come into enlightenment.

Man, you are more emotional than a teenage girl going through puberty.

Well, when I'm watching the Giants, they're either "great" or they're "total fucking assholes," and that goes back and forth a couple of times per quarter.

So, I guess I have to cop to that one.

There is definitely oddness afoot with Rasmussen. I'm not calling shenanigans, but I do believe that this weekends' data represented a statistical anomaly. Up til now, Rasmussen's tracking poll had been quite stable, and not prone to the wild and unrealistic swings we'd seen elsewhere.

Looking at the past few days, however, I can only conclude that Sunday's raw data represented an abrupt spike in Kerry's popularity. Given the lack of obvious news to drive such a move, I suspect it's just noise. This is reinforced by the fact that today we have a tie. That must mean that yesterday's raw data represented and even *bigger* spike for Bush, to create a tie for the three-day rolling average (Rasmussen claimed Kerry also led in Saturday's sample.)

Meanwhile, Zogby's tracking poll rolls steadily on, even opening a wider lead for Bush.

I've noticed that Bush tends to fair poorly on Mondays in the Rasmussen tracking poll. I suspect it's because Republicans work for a living, and are more protective of their precious weekend time, and have no patience to speak with pollsters. Perhaps this effect is augmented during a World Series weekend?

Can somebody please hit Ann Coulter with a few nmore pies? She's still talking.

Ace, you should seriously consider some medicinal marijuana.

I've said this before, but Rassmussen's been in the tank for Kerry ever since Kerry saved him from drowning in Vietnam.

Don't know where I read it, but I believe I saw yesterday that Rasmussen asked a question this weekend about the "draft" and Bush (that of course is not going to frickin' happen) and that might have run Bush's numbers down in that poll.

Rasmussen = robot polling = most people hanging up = a shitty sample.

Please don't waste your time with that poll. As Jay Cost at the Horserace blog says the real results are usually 24% Bush 24% Kerry and 52% hanging up.

I assume that the uncertainty is no more than .5 %, otherwise the decimal point is meaningless in this poll's figures. I could not do it now without much study, but I had to propagate uncertainties in my research in graduate school in physics with large matrices of data. It irritates me that there is precision implied which is not justified in these polls. I did not see the confidence level or the level of uncertainty for these figures but at least 3% is typical at what I assume is the 95% confidence level for most of the polls that I have seen. I think that I can more reliably believe that the arrival times of the photons that I studied were randomly distributed than any political polling results. There is much more reason to think that real errors exist either through bias or poor technique with polling (rather than purely statistical uncertainties which can only be ameliorated with more data).

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