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October 23, 2024

In the Democrats' Latest Masculinity Pageant, Democrat Missouri Senate Candidate Lucas Kunce Plays GunBuddies With Noted Heterosexual Adam Kinzinger... and Shoots a Reporter Due to Complete Lack of Safety Training

—Disinformation Expert Ace

manlinessonparade.jpg

The bachelor friends were firing rifles at steel targets at a range of less than 15 or 18 feet.

Those bullets have a lot of momentum in them and if you fire at them from such a short range, there's a good chance a bullet will come ricocheting back and hit you.

Real men know this.

Sissies LARPing at men do not.

Tough Guy Lucas Kunce, who look like he's lovingly stared into another man's balls once or seventy times, did not.

He played Woods Warrior with his pal Adam Kinzinger, blasted a rifle at a steel target only mere yards a way, and plugged a reporter there to helpfully document the Manlinesss Pageant with red hot shrapnel.

kinzigerandkunce.jpg

Sean Davis explains why sissies should not LARP with guns:

Sean Davis @seanmdav

I'm sorry, but this tweet is INSANE. It contains multitudes. The longer you look at the photos, the worse it gets.

1) They are shooting steel at 5-7 yards with rifles, which could've killed somebody given the force with which the bullets will ricochet off the steel targets at the at distance. You would instantly get permanently banned at my range if you did that. Zero questions asked.

2) Kinzinger holds his rifle like a complete ninny, and that will never not be funny to me. And pro-tip for @AdamKinzinger: the eye protection works better when it's on your eyes, not your head. You stupid idiot. Try using your brain for once. You're lucky you still have one after today.

3) Kinzinger is for some reason using a high-powered scope (at least a 3-9x by the looks of it) to shoot a target 5 yards away.

4) There is a bolt action rifle on the table, so presumably someone was also using that to shoot steel at 5 yards. Insane.

5) There are at least two canisters of explosive Tannerite powder on the table, down range from where guns are being fired. That could've potentially killed or seriously injured someone if someone shot it or if someone was stupid enough to be shooting close enough to steel for a ricochet to hit it.

6) At one point the cameraman is down range from all the guns, which--given the violations we've found so far--we can assume are not safe and unloaded. Way to think that one through, dummy.

7) And these morons are so stupid that EVEN AFTER SHOOTING SOMEONE (whose injury was due entirely to negligence), they thought it would be an awesome idea to post the evidence of their idiocy for all the world to see. Lawyer up, dummies, because that reporter you could've killed has you dead to rights.

Absolutely mind-blowing insanity from a candidate for a political party that wants to take away your guns because it claims you can't safely own them.

Lucas Kunce actually had the audacity to tweet: "Great day at the range." Except for the accidental shooting, of course.

Not even Dick Cheney had the gall to claim his accidental shooting was part of a "great day hunting ducks."

Sean answered him: "Great day at the range? You shot someone."

Adam Kinzinger (Slava Ukraini) @AdamKinzinger

Donald Trump hates the military and is a piece of human garbage.

Sean Davis
@seanmdav
You nearly murdered a reporter today while holding a rifle like you were an extra in a Grindr ad.

I'm just so impressed by Democratic men dressing in Hunter Drag to show us how manly they are!

Continue reading


Posted by Disinformation Expert Ace at 04:39 PM Comments


King Harv Imperial Coffee

Pro-Transgenderism-for-Children Partisans Receive $10 Million from Federal Government to Prove Puberty Blockers Help 11-Year-Old Children.
But Now That the Data Show Children Aren't Helped -- and May Be Hurt -- They Refuse to Pubish the Results.

—Disinformation Expert Ace

Via John Sexton.

A radical pro-transgenderism-for-children "researcher" asked the government for around $10 million for a "study." Really, a propaganda effort as we now know.

One single study conducted in the Netherlands claimed that children benefit from being pumped full of sterilizing chemical castration agents.

This claim is widely derided. She wanted to prove that pumping children full of sex-change hormones is good for them.

Well, her study proved that children are not helped by the hormones.

And guess what she did next?

She decided to simply withhold the study that we paid $10 million for, because she doesn't want the study's conclusion to be used against transgender fanatics like herself.

Even the trans-crazy New York Times finds it curious that "science" is now being published or withheld from publication based on the political agenda of the "scientist" involved.



U.S. Study on Puberty Blockers Goes Unpublished Because of Politics, Doctor Says


The leader of the long-running study said that the drugs
did not improve mental health in children with gender distress and that the finding might be weaponized by opponents of the care.

I repeat: We paid $10 million for this attempted propaganda operation and now that the proof is in that transgender drugs are harmful to children, they're locking up the results.

Sue them for the $10 million back and lodge FOIA after FOIA for the results. We fucking paid for them. They have no right to classify them as Top Secret just because the truth is other than what they prayed for.

An influential doctor and advocate of adolescent gender treatments said she had not published a long-awaited study of puberty-blocking drugs because of the charged American political environment.

The doctor, Johanna Olson-Kennedy, began the study in 2015 as part of a broader, multimillion-dollar federal project on transgender youth. She and colleagues recruited 95 children from across the country and gave them puberty blockers, which stave off the permanent physical changes -- like breasts or a deepening voice -- that could exacerbate their gender distress, known as dysphoria.

The researchers followed the children for two years to see if the treatments improved their mental health. An older Dutch study had found that puberty blockers improved well-being, results that inspired clinics around the world to regularly prescribe the medications as part of what is now called gender-affirming care.

But the American trial did not find a similar trend, Dr. Olson-Kennedy said in a wide-ranging interview. Puberty blockers did not lead to mental health improvements, she said, most likely because the children were already doing well when the study began.

No that's not true, as even the New York Time will note later.

So her claim is "there was no improvement because they were already doing swell."

Keep that in mind when they tell you we must give kids transgender drugs and surgeries or else they'll become suicidal and kill themselves.

She's saying the kids were doing great before the procedures!

"They're in really good shape when they come in, and they're in really good shape after two years," said Dr. Olson-Kennedy, who runs the country's largest youth gender clinic at the Children's Hospital of Los Angeles.

That conclusion seemed to contradict an earlier description of the group, in which Dr. Olson-Kennedy and her colleagues noted that one quarter of the adolescents were depressed or suicidal before treatment.

Before the "study:" We need to give these kids transgender surgeries because they're depressed and/or suicidal

After the "study:" Never mind what I said about them being depressed and/or suicidal, their mental health hasn't improved only because their mental health was already swell!

In the nine years since the study was funded by the National Institutes of Health, and as medical care for this small group of adolescents became a searing issue in American politics, Dr. Olson-Kennedy's team has not published the data. Asked why, she said the findings might fuel the kind of political attacks that have led to bans of the youth gender treatments in more than 20 states, one of which will soon be considered by the Supreme Court.

Her findings would prove critics are right, so she's hiding the research she bilked the American taxpayer for.


"I do not want our work to be weaponized," she said. "It has to be exactly on point, clear and concise. And that takes time."

The findings, like the election results from Atlanta and Detroit, need more time to be tabulated.

...

Dr. Olson-Kennedy is one of the country's most vocal advocates of adolescent gender treatments and has served as an expert witness in many legal challenges to the state bans. She said she was concerned the study's results could be used in court to argue that "we shouldn't use blockers because it doesn't impact them," referring to transgender adolescents.

Other researchers, however, were alarmed by the idea of delaying results that would have immediate implications for families around the world.

"I understand the fear about it being weaponized, but it's really important to get the science out there," said Amy Tishelman, a clinical and research psychologist at Boston College who was one of the study's original researchers.

Note that this study was intended to support the tiny Dutch study -- which itself was repudiated by the much more robust Cass Study in the UK.

England's youth gender clinic in 2011 tried to replicate the Dutch results with a study of 44 children. But at a conference five years later, the British researchers reported that puberty blockers had not changed volunteers' well-being, including rates of self-harm. Those results were not made public until 2020, years after puberty blockers had become the standard treatment for children with gender dysphoria in England.

In 2020, Dr. Olson-Kennedy's group described the initial psychological profile of the children enrolled in the U.S. study of puberty blockers, whose average age was 11. Before receiving the drugs, around one quarter of the group reported depression symptoms and significant anxiety, and one quarter reported ever having thoughts of suicide. Eight percent reported a past suicide attempt.

In a progress report submitted to the N.I.H. at that time, Dr. Olson-Kennedy outlined her hypothesis of how the children would fare after two years on puberty blockers: that they would show "decreased symptoms of depression, anxiety, trauma symptoms, self-injury, and suicidality, and increased body esteem and quality of life over time."

That hypothesis does not seem to have borne out.

Now check out this spin:

"They have good mental health on average," Dr. Olson-Kennedy said in the interview with The New York Times. "They're not in any concerning ranges, either at the beginning or after two years." She reiterated this idea several times.


When asked in follow-up emails to clarify how the children could have good initial mental health when her preliminary findings had showed one quarter of them struggling, Dr. Olson-Kennedy said that, in the interview, she was referring to data averages and that she was still analyzing the full data set.

What?

The NIH says it's fine if they take the $10 million grant and bury the report:

An N.I.H. spokesman said that while the agency generally encourages the publication of data supported by its grants, researchers decide how and when to do so.

Note the whole purpose of a study is to take a small but representative sample of the general population, study that sample, and extrapolate the results to the general population. Obviously you can't track the health of every single person. But we have accepted for hundreds of years of medical science research (as well as polling or any other statistical sampling) that a small but representative sample shows what the whole group is experiencing.

In order to justify refusing to release the results, this Dick-Chopping Maniac now says there's no point in studying a small sample, because that tells us nothing about the larger group at all:

Although the N.I.H. studies are large, she said, "these are minuscule compared to the amount of people that we've taken care of."

OUT: "Trust the science"

IN: Fuck the science, we're doing Transgender Justice on the taxpayer's dime!

Fuck you.

Continue reading


Posted by Disinformation Expert Ace at 03:34 PM Comments



Kamala Harris: Trump Is So Old He's "Exhausted" and Cancelling Events
Also Kamala Harris: I'm So Tired of Working a Job for the First Time in My Life I'm Taking Two Consecutive Days Off Just to Memorize Fake Answers in a Fake CNN "Interview"

—Disinformation Expert Ace

Kamala Harris's latest fake narrative is that Trump -- who has been on the trail relentlessly for 52 straight days without a break -- is "exhausted" and "dodging debates" and "cancelling events."

Trump has cancelled no events, despite being targeted by assassins at least twice and maybe a third time.

He's not dodging debates -- he accepted Fox's invitation for a debate, which Kamala refused. She wants another leftwing media rigged fake debate where Trump gets yelled at by frustrated theater kids in make-up.

But this is her line, because she's a liar and a DEI hire who has never achieved anything and has never even been expected to achieve anything.

She's mad at Trump for refusing to take up the White Man's Burden and Position Her for Success:

Kamala Harris @KamalaHarris

Donald Trump is dodging debates and ducking interviews. His campaign team says it's because of "exhaustion."

Well, if he's exhausted on the campaign trail, it raises the question: Is he fit for the toughest job in the world?

So Trump's exhausted, huh?

Well Kamala, who just turned 60 and is no spring chicken and who has never worked hard in her life, is now taking two days off, back-to-back, in the crucial last 12 days before the election:

Greg Price @greg_price11

Kamala is taking all of today off to prepare for two pre-taped interviews with NBC and Telemundo and is taking all day tomorrow off to prepare for a CNN town hall.

President Trump is doing multiple events per day: Rallies, interviews, roundtables. The guy isn't stopping.

This is happening as Kamala's campaign accuses Trump of being "exhausted."

The Comply-or-Die media is pushing Kamala's spin that Orange Man Old. Despite her own inability to work on days when she's sitting down for 30 minute interviews.

A Democrat operative at the Washington Post -- excuse my redundancy -- is married to a leftwing abortion activist who just so happened to clerk at the Supreme Court when the Dobbs draft decision was leaked to the leftwing media.

He's claiming that Trump, who speaks literally six or eight hours a day to the public, is increasingly experiencing verbal "slip-ups." You know -- like Biden, who the left still refuses to admit was cognitively challenged and who only left the race because of "the polling."

So Biden is cognitively sharp, but Trump's in the grips of dementia:


Continue reading


Posted by Disinformation Expert Ace at 02:15 PM Comments

Do I Really Have to Talk About This Bullshit?

—Disinformation Expert Ace

So, Jeffrey Goldberg, who has published lie after lie in the past, and works for a magazine owned by Steve Jobs' ultra-woke widow who's also a bestie of Kamala Harris, publishes John Kelly's latest 11th-hour Shocking Revelation.

Kelly, who worked for Trump the longest of any of his Chief of Staffs, for some reason waited five and a half years to inform us that Trump really liked Hitler's generals.

Why did he never mention this earlier? He hates Trump and has been vomiting up lies about him for years; why did he never mention this one before?

And what did Trump like about Hitler's generals, supposedly? Well, according to serial fabulist and defamer John Kelly, he liked Hitler's generals' loyalty. Now I don't believe a word of this, but I would say that given Trump's experiences with the Deep State constantly unconstitutionally, treasonously plotting against the elected president of the United States, I could understand someone prizing loyalty from his bureaucracy.

But we're all supposed to pretend 1, this has any chance of being true, and 2, that if Trump said something like "I mean, even Hitler's generals showed loyalty, whereas mine scheme against me," we should take this as proof that Trump -- who has Jewish grandchildren -- was a Secret Nazi all along.

Retired Gen. John Kelly, who served as White House chief of staff in the Trump administration, said former President Trump praised Adolf Hitler's generals for their loyalty in a new interview in The Atlantic on Tuesday.

In the interview with editor-in-chief Jeffrey Goldberg, Kelly affirmed reporting from Peter Baker and Susan Glasser's book, "The Divider: Trump in the White House," which quoted Trump asking Kelly, his chief of staff at the time, "Why can't you be like the German generals?"

According to Goldberg's account of Baker and Glasser's reporting, Kelly responded by explaining to Trump that the German generals "tried to kill Hitler three times and almost pulled it off," but Trump reportedly was not swayed by the correction.

Are you kidding? That's it? My guess before reading the quote was the most Trump could have conceivably said was "why can't you show the loyalty to a president that even generals serving under Hitler showed," and that's exactly the claim being made.

The paid attack dog of woke billionaire heiress Laura Powell-Jobs also "reports" an anonymously-offered smear. The claim is that Trump offered to pay for the funeral of a Mexican-American servicemember killed by Biden's incompetence, and then, for some reason, when no one could hear him (except the well-placed Mystery Source), he said "I'm not paying $60,000 to bury a Mexican, don't pay that bill."

Or words to that effect. I'm not going to bother getting the "quote" right because it's fictional in the first place. It's like arguing about whether Darth Vader said "Luke, I am your father" or "No, I am your father." It doesn't matter. It's not real. (Though, as far as the correct fictional quote, it's the latter one. That made-up fictional quote is more important than this one.)

The sister and family and attorney of the dead servicemember say it's a lie and are telling the Marxist Insurrection Media to stop lying and using the dead woman as a prop.

And check out the lame "community note" added by a Kamala Harris partisan -- well, there's no proof he did pay for the funeral.

I think the sister would mention it if he didn't. Don't you?

Continue reading


Posted by Disinformation Expert Ace at 01:14 PM Comments

Whistleblower: The Harris-Biden Administration is Paying NGOs to Fly Unaccompanied Minor Children Around, Knowing They're Being Sexually Trafficked

—Disinformation Expert Ace

Happy Humpday. It's all downhill from here. But in a good way.

James O'Keefe @JamesOKeefeIII

BREAKING: Federal Government Whistleblower Exposes $347M Contract for Transporting Unaccompanied Minors - "What You Know, You Cannot Unknow"

"My line in the sand moment was when I found out that GSA had awarded a contract to a company to transport unaccompanied minors," shared current General Services Administration (GSA) Senior Contract Specialist Clarissa Rippee, revealing shocking details about a $347 million contract awarded to the company responsible for transporting unaccompanied minors across the United States. "It felt like someone kicked me in the gut," Rippee added.

Rippee, who works inside the General Services Administration (GSA), described the unaccompanied minors as being treated like "commodities... like potato chips on a truck." The contract, which she highlights as an enormous "big money business," involves moving children, often separated from their families, under inhumane conditions.

"Once you know, you cannot unknow," Rippee stated, saying that the horrifying conditions she witnessed inspired her to speak out: "It's about the children, and it's my duty now to speak up."

Rippee also noted the troubling normalization of such activities within the government, saying, "It's just an accepted part of the bureaucracy. But the reality is, this is exploitation, and it has to stop." Rippee's revelations come on the heels of Border Patrol Agent Zachary Apotheker (@ZachApotheker) blowing the whistle on the U.S. Customs and Border Protection in the film "Line in the Sand."

Support brave whistleblowers like Rippee and Apotheker by donating to the Citizen Journalist Foundation at https://okeefemediagroup.com/donate/. Your contribution ensures that courageous individuals can step forward and reveal the truth, helping to hold those in power accountable.

Continue reading


Posted by Disinformation Expert Ace at 12:08 PM Comments

Wednesday Morning Rant

—Joe Mannix

mannixape2.jpg

Incomprehensible

When Emperor Hirohito's voice went out over the Japanese airwaves announcing his government's acceptance of the Potsdam Declaration and the Empire's unconditional surrender to the Allies, it was particularly notable for two reasons. First, emperors do not speak to commoners, so it was the first time that most of his subjects had ever heard his voice. Second, Hirohito spoke in an ancient, hidebound dialect that was nearly incomprehensible to his subjects.

Between the courtly classical Japanese dialect and the careful couched language, many of those who heard it were left struggling to understand what, exactly, they had heard. The Emperor said that Japan "accepts the provisions of the Joint Declaration," but what does that mean? Did Japan surrender or not? What was the meaning of those odd words from their God-emperor?

Continue reading


Posted by Joe Mannix at 11:00 AM Comments

Mid-Morning Art Thread

—CBD

Marle dupre.jpg

Study for a portrait of Jean Dupré

Félix Del Marle

Posted by CBD at 09:15 AM Comments

Early Morning Open Thread

—CBD

Sefton is still in computer purgatory. I think his cat used his AoSHQ floppy disk as a chew toy...

Talk amongst yourselves!

Addendum: The United States isn't the only country where free speech is under attack. The Orwellian lunatics on our northern border are skipping gleefully into totalitarianism.
More thought crimes coming to Canada? Calling out Indian mass-graves hoax could become illegal

After three years of chest-beating, church burnings, historical revisionism, and national self-flagellation, the exponents of Canada's mass Indian graves hoax have produced no evidence to support their anti-Christian "blood libel."

But they want to make it illegal to criticize it!

Posted by CBD at 07:01 AM Comments

Daily Tech News 23 October 2024

—Pixy Misa

Top Story

  • The San Francisco MTA is spending $212 million to move its train control system off floppy disks. (GovTech)

    The system was installed in 1998, which is rather late to be using floppy disks that were (assuming it uses 3.5" disks) introduced in 1982. But Compact Flash, the only real alternative at the time that is still supported today, was only introduced in 1994 and was likely not readily available when the project started.

    And given that it's been working for 26 years so far, we can't really blame the designers for being short-sighted.

Continue reading


Posted by Pixy Misa at 04:00 AM Comments

Tuesday Overnight Open Thread (10/22/24)

—Misanthropic Humanitarian

rise-shine-20210629-114.jpg

The Moose out front should have told you it was going to be a compact ONT.


*****


The Quotes of The Day


Quote I

“All tech we are relying on is performing adequately, any issues are immediately addressed, and of course – like any big organization – we have parallel backup systems as a failsafe,” Trump campaign political director James Blair


Quote II

“We have collectively acknowledged that a membership dues increase is needed which is greater than the 25 percent (or $6.25) the National Board has authority to approve in a single triennium,” Girl Scouts of the USA President Noorain Khan and CEO Bonnie Barczykowski wrote in a handbook

Continue reading


Posted by Misanthropic Humanitarian at 10:55 PM Comments

FAFO Theatre Cafe

—Disinformation Expert Ace

I spelled "Theatre" the classy way (TM).

quokkahugs.jpg

Slow news day.

The out-of-controlness of bears can no longer be swept under the rug.

Nice rack.

Mixed meow-tial artist vs. boxer.

Another cat chooses violence.

A little race.

Little dog is a Kamala fan.

Steve Inman FAFO award winners:

Picking a fight with a former Golden Gloves amateur titlist.

Picking a fight with a McDonald's security guard who took the job just for this moment.

Moped bandits in Paraguay get ram-ifications from a truck.

Ram-ifications for actual election thieves in Mexico.

Highway bandits f*** with a guy with a gun who's been training for just this opportunity.

Lizzo dances in traffic during a "street takeover."

Green protesters rage against the machine and the machine rages right back.

Some real content-warning stuff in this one as a some bandits get shot to hell and a cell-phone thief runs out into the middle of the road and meets Knight Bus, the Bus That Fights Crime. Serious caution, the bus really wipes this guy out.

Continue reading


Posted by Disinformation Expert Ace at 07:40 PM Comments

Quick Hits

—Disinformation Expert Ace

The Hill: Maybe Joe Biden was a stronger candidate than Kamala.

With the Nov. 5 election just over a fortnight away, here is an intriguing thought experiment.

By most accounts, the election is still a horse race too close to call.

Um, no. Nice cope, though.

But although Vice President Kamala Harris quickly assumed the presidential mantle from Joe Biden and put in place an impressive start-up, October has not been particularly kind to her. Donald Trump has closed the electoral gaps, and some believe he is actually leading.

No matter who wins, we have to ask: Would President Biden have been a better candidate and choice despite suffering from the effects of age and 81 years? Further, suppose that the disastrous June 27 debate with Trump had not taken place, or that Biden had been firing on all cylinders that night. Would Biden have been forced to withdraw? And whether Harris loses or wins, some will ask whether Biden might still have been a better candidate.

Bob Woodward's new book, "War," might not be dispositive in representing Biden's strengths and weaknesses. The book does add weight to this thought experiment, though. Woodward paints a very positive picture of Biden's ability to lead and to govern despite making mistakes, most notably the disastrous withdrawal from Kabul.

Woodward also reports that Biden's obvious decline was physical and not mental. This was caused in part by prior medical conditions accelerating the effects of age on a body. There were also the strains of high office; the president refused to limit his overworked schedule despite valid criticisms that he was on near-permanent holiday in Delaware or Camp David.

Bob Woodward is a huckster and a fraud.

As I have previously written, Americans may not know the winner right away...

Yes, you're all saying that. Why are you all saying that?

Bob Casey and Tammy Baldwin don't believe Kamala is winning. We know this because they're running ads claiming that they stand with Trump on key issues.

Two Democratic senators facing reelection in battleground states are pouring hundreds of thousands of dollars into adverts that play up their support for Donald Trump and his policies, according to an exclusive analysis of broadcast data.

It suggests they are trying to win over Trump supporters to hold their seats, even if it undermines Kamala Harris' campaign.

In key counties in Pennsylvania, Sen. Bob Casey has shifted the bulk of his TV advertising to a 30-second spot entitled 'Independent' that features a married couple comprising a Republican and Democrat explaining how he 'bucked Biden to protect fracking and he sided with Trump to end NAFTA and put tariffs on China.

'And in Wisconsin, Sen. Tammy Baldwin has made a similar move with an ad that emphasizes how she worked with Trump on ensuring U.S. iron and steel is used in infrastructure projects.

Between them, they spent $650,000 on those two ads in the four days up to Monday, according to an analysis of data collected by AdImpact which monitors election advertising.

'And in Wisconsin, Sen. Tammy Baldwin has made a similar move with an ad that emphasizes how she worked with Trump on ensuring U.S. iron and steel is used in infrastructure projects.

Between them, they spent $650,000 on those two ads in the four days up to Monday, according to an analysis of data collected by AdImpact which monitors election advertising.

The move is most distinct in Pennsylvania.

From Monday, 'Independent' was the only advert Casey's campaign was running in the Erie, Harrisburg, Johnstown and Pittsburgh areas, according to the analysis.

Yet in the deep blue Democratic areas of Wilkes-Barre and Philadelphia his campaign is running a different ad, entitled 'Selling Out America,' which attacks his opponent.

'It is like he is running two campaigns, which is not a stupid thing to do,' said a person familiar with political ad buying.

'But it is also fair to say that in much of the state his closing message is a pro-Trump message.'

The ad includes a 2017 headline linking the Democrat to Trump's policies. 'Casey supports Trump's trade order,' it says.

The race is finely poised. A slew of recent polls shows that Republican Dave McCormick has eaten into Casey's lead.

On Monday, the Cook Political Report moved the race from 'lean Democratic' to 'toss up.'

Bob Casey voted with Biden more than almost any other Democrat Senator -- but now, two weeks before the election, he's an "independent" and almost Trump's running mate, huh?

Nate Silver wrote a list of 24 reasons why Kamala "might" -- or will, I'd say -- lose.

Harris is the favorite to win the popular vote, but the Electoral College bias favors Republicans by about 2 percentage points. In an era of intense partisanship and close elections, this is inherently difficult for Democrats to overcome.

Inflation hit a peak of 9.1 percentage points in June 2022. It has abated now, but prices remain much higher than when Joe Biden took office, and voters are historically highly sensitive to inflation. Democrats can also plausibly be blamed for it given intensive increases in government spending during COVID recovery efforts.

...

Incumbent parties worldwide are doing very poorly, and the historical incumbency advantage has diminished to the point where it may now be an incumbency handicap instead given perpetually negative perceptions about the direction of the country.

...

Illegal/unauthorized immigration increased substantially during the first few years of the Biden/Harris administration amid a rising global backlash to immigration.

Harris ran far to her left in 2019, adopting many unpopular positions, and doesn't really have a viable strategy for explaining her changing stances.

The cultural vibes are shifting to the right, and the left continues to pay a price for the excesses of 2020 on COVID, crime, "wokeness," and other issues.

Voters have nostalgia for the relatively strong economic performance in the first three years of Trump's term and associate the problems of 2020 with Democrats, even though they weren't in charge at the time.

Dude, Fauci and Birx were in control of this country's covid policy and they are obviously hardcore authoritarian leftists.

...

Many men, especially young men, feel lost amidst declining college enrollment, contributing to a rightward shift and a growing gender gap.

...

Harris is seeking to become the first woman president. In the only previous attempt, undecideds broke heavily against Hillary Clinton, and she underperformed her polls.

Trust in media continues to fall to abysmal levels. One can debate how to attribute blame for this between longstanding conservative efforts to discredit the media, a secular decline in trust in institutions, and various overreaching and hypocrisy in the press. But it's hard for even legitimate Trump critiques to penetrate the mass public. Trump's conviction on a series of felony charges hardly made any difference, for instance.

...


Foreign policy might not matter much to voters, but the world has become more unstable under Biden's tenure. There has been a decline in democracy worldwide and an increase in interstate conflict, crises in the Middle East and Ukraine, deteriorating US-China relations, increasing immigration flows because of global instability, and a pullout from Afghanistan that negatively impacted Biden's popularity.

The Israel-Hamas war split the Democratic base in a way no comparable issue has split the GOP base.

There are more left-leaning third-party candidates than right-leaning ones, and the former leading third-party candidate (RFK Jr.) endorsed Trump and undermined Harris's post-convention momentum.

The richest man in the world, Elon Musk, has become a huge Trump stan and is doing everything in his power to tip the election to him. Twitter/X remains an influential platform among journalists but has shifted far to the right. Elon and Silicon Valley have also created a permission structure for other wealthy elites to advocate for Trump explicitly and provided a new base of money and cultural influence.

Trump was very nearly killed in an assassination attempt, and then there was a second one against him. The first attempt was closely correlated with an increase in favorability ratings for Trump, and polling shows he's considerably more popular and sympathetic than in 2016 or 2020.

Oh right, that little thing the media has done its best to pretend out of existence.

Harris has been running on vibes and has failed to articulate a clear vision for the country. It might have been a good strategy if the "fundamentals" favored her, but they don't.

"Media reporter" Brian Stelter (who is a potato) claims that it's the right making the McDonald's stop a "three day story," and not the left for raving about it in their latest bout of hysteria:

Continue reading


Posted by Disinformation Expert Ace at 06:40 PM Comments

Surprise! Kamala Harris Took Advantage of an Affirmative Action Program for "Disadvantaged Children" Despite Being the Daughter of Two Well-Off Professors

—Disinformation Expert Ace

She is the worst example of DEI anti-meritocracy.

She got into a very meh law school named Hastings.

And she didn't even get in on her own merits.

She wasn't an honors student at Howard. There is no information on what Kamala Harris scored on her LSAT. We do know that she didn't pass the Bar on the first try when 80 percent of her classmates did pass. So how did a run-of-the-mill student, and daughter of a "privileged" upbringing get into Hastings School of Law?

Easy -- she fudged her application. Harris was admitted under a program called LEOP. According to the University:

UC Hastings created the Legal Education Opportunity Program (LEOP) in 1969 to make an outstanding legal education accessible to those who come from disadvantaged economic and educational backgrounds.

Students are encouraged to submit a "separate LEOP statement describing the adversity they faced and its impact on their academic preparedness for law school. Diagnostic reports documenting disabilities and/or accommodations can be submitted as addenda."

In a Politico article from 2021, the author describes Harris at Hastings:

In the fall of 1986, Harris arrived on campus at Hastings a week before most of her classmates. She was part of the pre-orientation Legal Education Opportunity Program (LEOP), which had been founded in 1969 to help law students from disadvantaged communities navigate the stringent demands of the first-year curriculum. Harris had come to a predominantly white institution after four years at a historically Black university. Beyond introducing students to Socratic pedagogy, case-briefing and exam-taking, the pre-orientation also gave students of color a sense of community and a hamlet of solidarity in a cut-throat environment.

Harris, the daughter of two college professors, who grew up attending private schools in Canada, was not, in the least, economically or socially disadvantaged. But there she is, claiming she was.

Further evidence she's a DEI hire? She's a plagiarist.

I don't just mean the extensive plagiarism in "her" book, "Smart" on Crime. We covered that last week.

But there are new charges that she plagiarized almost the entire speech of an attorney general. One part she didn't plagiarize, though: she took a fictitious example of a sex crime, changed the city the imaginary incident occurred in, and presented it a real.

That part, presenting a fake "for example" scenario as real? That was Pure Kamala.

But apart from simply making up a lie for the speech, she stole the rest of it.

On April 24, 2007, Kamala Harris testified before Congress in support of the John R. Justice Prosecutors and Defenders Incentive Act of 2007. The bill, which was introduced that year but never passed the upper chamber, would have created a student loan repayment program for state and local prosecutors, and Harris, then the district attorney of San Francisco, argued it would draw top legal talent to offices like hers.


In a written statement to the House Judiciary Committee, she described how debt-addled prosecutors often decamp to the private sector a few years into the job, lured by the prospect of higher pay that could be used to pay off law school debt. That dynamic had left many district attorneys' offices short-staffed, she said, forcing them to put rookie attorneys on complex cases.

"There are numerous criminal cases that are particularly difficult because of the dynamics involved," Harris wrote. "To name just a few--child abuse, elder neglect, domestic violence, identity theft and public corruption. The stakes are simply too high to allow any attorney other than experienced prosecutors to handle these matters."

By repaying the loans of prosecutors and public defenders, Harris argued, the bill, which had been introduced with bipartisan support, would provide an incentive for lawyers to enter public service, or at least diminish the incentive to leave it.

The statement was simple and pragmatic. But Harris wasn't the first person to make it.

Virtually her entire testimony about the bill was taken from that of another district attorney, Paul Logli of Winnebago County, Illinois, who had testified in support of the legislation two months earlier before the Senate Judiciary Committee. Both statements cite the same surveys, use the same language, and make the same points in the same order, with a paragraph added here or there. They even contain the same typos, such as missing punctuation or mistaken plurals. One error--a "who" that should have been a "whom"--was corrected in Harris's transposition.

Go to the Free Beacon's article to see the speeches side-by-side. They're virtually identical.

The main difference between their testimonies is that Logli submitted his to the Senate instead of the House. And unlike Harris, Logli is a Republican.

Harris, who also testified about two other bills that day, devoted approximately 1,500 words to the John R. Justice Act. Nearly 1,200 of them--or 80 percent--were copied verbatim from the statement Logli submitted to the Senate Judiciary Committee on February 27, 2007, two months before Harris delivered her testimony.

...

The passages are some of the most striking cases in which Harris, a former senator and state attorney general, appears to have plagiarized in her capacity as a government official, lifting large chunks of texts from other attorneys--and in one case from Wikipedia--without attribution, according to a Washington Free Beacon review of her work.

...

[A]s California attorney general, she didn't just copy boilerplate language without attribution. In one of the lengthier passages reviewed by Free Beacon, she lifted a fictionalized story about a victim of sex trafficking--and presented it as a real case.

The story came from Polaris Project, a nonprofit that runs the National Human Trafficking Hotline. By June 2012, the project had posted a series of vignettes on its website that were "representative of the types of calls" the hotline receives and "meant for informational purposes only," according to an archived webpage. To preserve confidentiality, the project said, key details like "names, locations, and other identifying information" had been changed.

But in November 2012, Harris included one of those vignettes in a report she published on the state of human trafficking in California. Though she said that the story was "courtesy of" the hotline, she copied it verbatim and did not acknowledge that it contained fictionalized material.

The only detail she changed was the location. The Polaris Project described a young woman, "Kelly," who had been forced to engage in prostitution and was rescued by law enforcement in Washington, D.C. But in Harris's telling, Kelly had conveniently been found in San Francisco.

The change effectively gave Harris credit for a rescue that never occurred, at least in her state, and reflects what Skinner, the former solicitor general, said was a common perception of Harris among legal officials at the time.

"She was never viewed in the Attorney General community as being an intellectual leader," he said. "It is very on-brand with that reputation to hear now that she was repackaging stories from other locations as though they happened in California."

The story from the hotline wasn't a one-off. In a 2010 report on organized crime, Harris copied several passages from Bill Lockyer, one of her predecessors as California attorney general, without attribution.

In the 2012 report on human trafficking, she copied a paragraph from Wikipedia.

And in a 2014 report on transnational gangs, she copied several sentences from Roger McDonough, a New York State judge, as well as McDonough's footnotes.

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Posted by Disinformation Expert Ace at 05:39 PM Comments

Polls: Trump Winning Latinos 49-38%, Has Historic 29% Share of Black Vote

—Disinformation Expert Ace

One big caveat: When a poll of, let's say, 1000 people claims a margin-of-error rate of 3%, that's for the whole 1000 people.

When you start digging into sub-groups, the margin of error get much bigger because the fewer people you poll, the worse the margin of error. If you ask 1000 people about voting intentions, you might wind up with 130 black voters. The margin of error for that is big.

Indeed, the margin of error shown below for Latinos is 9%. And that mean that Kamala's share of Latino voters could be as high as 47%, and Trump's as low as 40%.

But that's still nearly even! And the poll on black voters is from Fox, who uses a notoriously Democrat-skewing pollster!

The poll on Latinexexes comes via Suffolk.

latinosfortrump.jpg

blackvotersfortrump.jpeg

Someone on Twitter made the point that it's even worse for Kamala because very liberal, Democrat-voting Hispanics tend to be in blue states like California, while Hispanics in swing-states are more pro-Trump.

And the 29% figure for black voters? Huge, obviously. That will help offset all the AWFLs in the suburbs voting with their vaginas.


A Democrat panelist on Crooked CNN is wondering, Hey, maybe we should lay off calling Hispanics "Latinx" as if they're majority-transgender. They don't seem to like that.

And apparently Kamala Harris agrees. She "copy-pasted her plan for black men and changed "black" to "Latino."" But she is suddenly saying "Latino" instead of "Latinx."

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Posted by Disinformation Expert Ace at 04:25 PM Comments

Madison Cornbread Accused of Perjury-- Again

—Disinformation Expert Ace

The newest charge of perjury concerns a note that was written about what Trump should say to the protesters on January 6th. Trump's lawyer says he wrote the note, which urged calm. Madison Cornbread claims that she wrote the note.

Let's compare the handwriting on the note to Madison Cornbread's actual handwriting. Can you tell which one was written by an older man, and which was written by womanchild?

Here's the note that Madison Cornbread claimed under oath that she wrote herself:

madisoncornbreadhandwriting1.jpg

That looks like a mannish kind of scrawl, but perhaps Princess Pumpkinspice writes with a mannish hand herself. Let's check an example of her handwriting:

madisoncornbreadhandwriting2.jpg


I'm no handwriting expert, but it's my non-expert opinion that those two notes were written by the exact same hand. I mean, obviously!

By the way, you're probably wondering: Is this a joke? Did someone make up a fake Madison Cornbread note and write in fat, rounded little-girl letters and close it with a peace sign, a heart, and a smiley face?

But no: It's real.

And the January 6th committee claimed a "handwriting expert" -- unnamed, uncited -- certified both were written by the same person.

A handwriting expert consulted by Congress says, get this, the first note was written by Trump's lawyer -- just as he testified -- and that Madison Cornbread perjured herself again.

Handwriting analysis expert catches Cassidy Hutchinson in apparent false testimony

This is not the first instance of Hutchinson's key testimony being contradicted by other witnesses or new facts.

A handwriting analysis of a tweet draft is the latest piece of evidence contradicting the testimony of star Jan. 6 witness Cassidy Hutchinson who has come under fire from House Republicans for her role in the investigation led by the Democrat-controlled Jan. 6 Select Committee.

In her public testimony before the special committee in June 2022, Hutchinson told Congress, under oath, that she wrote the note for a proposed tweet as her boss, President Donald Trump's Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, and Eric Herschmann, a personal attorney to Trump, dictated it to her.

Immediately after her public testimony, Herschmann disputed Hutchinson's claim, according to the House Republicans.

Now, the House Administration Subcommittee on Oversight said it ordered a handwriting analysis from an expert who determined was consistent with Herschmann's writing, not Hutchinson's.

"This new evidence provided by an independent, Certified Questioned Document Examiner, not only contradicts Ms. Hutchinson's numerous claims that she penned the note, but also exposes the Select Committee's willingness to accept all her testimonies without corroboration or further investigation," Chairman Barry Loudermilk said in a press release.

During its investigation, the Jan. 6 Select Committee, Loudermilk's committee says, did not contact Herschmann to confirm who wrote the note despite his public insistence Hutchinson was not the author.

In a footnote to its final report, the select committee claimed to have conducted a handwriting analysis of its own, finding it consistent with Hutchinson's writing, despite citing no authority on the matter.

See the article for Madison Cornbread's previous perjuries.

It amazes me how much the liars lie about Trump being a lying liar when they're the lying liars from Liarsburg who sits on thrones of lies made from coconuts

Posted by: The Unvaxxed and Unmasked Ranger - Longing to Lie in Zooey Deschanel's Bosom for Comfort

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Posted by Disinformation Expert Ace at 03:20 PM Comments

Former Abercrombie and Fitch CEO and Two Associates Arrested for Sex Trafficking

—Disinformation Expert Ace

I would have indicted him based on just the fact that he looks like Outrageously-Gay Gary Busey.


michael-s-jeffries-chairman-ceo-92144551.jpg


His plastic surgery is on-point. I can't even tell he's had work done.

But, may I ask: Have you considered an eye-lift, sir? That could give you that "wide awake on coke at 4am" look that's so hot right now.

Former Abercrombie & Fitch CEO and accused serial sexual predator Mike Jeffries was arrested Tuesday as part of a sex-trafficking investigation.

The 80-year-old disgraced fashion-giant boss -- whose twisted antics allegedly led to more than 100 men being abused -- was nabbed in West Palm Beach, Fla.

His "romantic partner," Matthew Smith, 61, as well as a business associate, James Jacobson, 71 -- previously described by accusers as a middleman who is missing his nose and covers the spot with a snakeskin patch, according to the BBC -- were also arrested in the case, authorities and sources told The Post.

What?

The arrests come roughly a year after the FBI started probing claims Jeffries allegedly orchestrated elaborate sex events to exploit and sexually abuse young male models during his 22-year tenure at the brand.

The claims first surfaced as part of an explosive BBC News report last year in which 12 men alleged they were lured to events at Jeffries' upscale New York residence or luxury hotels in the world's fashion capitals between 2009 to 2015.

...

In the wake of the BBC report, a class-action civil suit was filed in New York last year alleging that more than 100 men had been abused and that the fashion juggernaut turned a blind eye to Jeffries' alleged misconduct.

David Bradberry, the lead plaintiff in the case and one of the dozen men who spoke to the BBC, alleged he felt pressured into having sex with Jeffries at one of his parties in his Hamptons mansion.

Bradberry, then 23 and an aspiring model, told the outlet that he "didn't feel safe to say 'no' or 'I don't feel comfortable with this'" because of the home's "secluded" location and presence of Jeffries' staff -- who all dressed in a uniform of head-to-toe A&F.

I bet this doesn't even hurt the brand. They know who their customers are.

Jeffries was largely credited for the brand's boost in popularity among teens in the early nineties with its slew of advertising campaigns featuring bare-chested young male and female models.

The brand became a darling of turn-of-the-millennium teen mall culture with its stores pumped full of cologne.


Abercrombie and Fitch more like NAMBAcrombie and Bitch amirite

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Posted by Disinformation Expert Ace at 02:18 PM Comments

Kamala Was Drunk At Her Fake "Town Hall," As Usual

—Disinformation Expert Ace

Kamala Harris was clearly drunk at a public event, yet again.

Listen to the drunken pronunciation of words. Listen to the well-lubricated "ck" sounds in the back of her well-traveled throat, the classic drunken insistence ("you have to believe me, I love you man") on silly nonsense, the slow deliberate speech as she attempts to cover for her slurring.

Why would she show up to so many public events clearly drunk? I have a theory that she has either social anxiety or panic disorder. She drinks to ameliorate her stage fright. She might be taking pills in addition to the booze, like xanax for anxiety and klonopin for panic. I don't know about xanax, but I do know, from having taken it for years, that klonopin is a depressant and doubles or trebles the effects of alcohol. So her speech impairment could be due to "just" two or three drinks plus a pill that increases the impact of booze.

One time, when I was on klonopin, I drank enough to get drunk. I was so addled by the combination of the drugs that when I stumbled into a taxi to go home, I could not remember my home address. My GF at the time had to guess the general vicinity until eventually she coaxed it out of me with hints like "It has a 3 in it it, doesn't it?"

Even if this is the case: She's unfit for office. Even if she's "merely" drinking to self-medicate her stage fright, anxiety, or panic, she's still an alcoholic. If you "need" booze just to get through the day, you have an alcohol problem.

The president has to speak in public a lot. Almost every single day (until Joe Biden said, "Hold muh beer" and decided to go on vacation 40% of his "presidency").

If Kamala's excuse for frequent public intoxication is that she has uncontrolled anxiety or panic, she still can't be president. We cannot afford a president who is lazy, dumb, and dependent on getting half-sloshed every single day just to get through the day.

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Posted by Disinformation Expert Ace at 01:11 PM Comments

Liz Cheney: Anti-Abortion Laws in the States Have Gone Too Far, We Have To Give Women the "Care They Need"

—Disinformation Expert Ace

Well.

Not unexpected. It's good to have one's intuitions confirmed.


Josh Kraushaar
@JoshKraushaar

Questions from town hall with Harris/Cheney in Malvern, PA this afternoon sounds like they're coming from typical partisan Democrats, not from cross-pressured Nikki Haley acolytes.

Josh Kraushaar @JoshKraushaar

Another example of this: Cheney, who has always been a pro-lifer throughout her political career, said the Dobbs decision went too far during the PA event.

Via Twitchy, the Guardian writes that Cheney is telling people to support Kamala Harris to protect women against anti-abortion laws.

Liz Cheney, a former Republican congresswoman and longtime opponent of abortion rights, on Monday condemned Republican-imposed bans on the procedure and urged conservatives to support Democrat Kamala Harris for US president.

Cheney was speaking during three joint events with the vice-president in three swing states aimed at prising suburban Republican voters away from party nominee Donald Trump. She has become the Democrat's most prominent conservative surrogate and is rumoured to be in contention for a seat in a potential Harris cabinet.

Via SamJ. of Twitchy, Charles Cooke tweeted about what an incredible volte face this is for Cheney, who previously demanded an absolute ban on abortion at the federal level from "the moment of fertilization."

Andrew Egger of cuckblog The Bulwark attempts to femsplain Cheney's incredible flip-flop from 100% absolutist pro-life to claiming we need to roll back state limitations so that women can get "the care they need."

Andrew Egger @EggerDC

But Cheney didn't say Dobbs went too far. She disapproved of some of the state-level bans which followed. ("Dobbs went too far" is sort of a nonsensical statement--all it did was change the regulatory environment.)

So the claim of the NeverTrump liberals (they're neither conservative nor Republican and it's beyond time they stopped pretending otherwise) is that Cheney doesn't oppose Dobbs itself, but merely abortion limits (limits, not bans) that Dobbs allowed the states to pass.

If she's against the states limiting abortion, then she's actually against Dobbs. If she is demanding that states simply encode the Roe v. Wade regime through their own laws, then what the hell is her objection to Roe v. Wade in the first place? She just wants states to protect abortion instead of the federal government?

I mean, there is an argument about proper constitutional procedure there, but that argument is not about the substance of abortion itself. I guess the NeverTrumpers just want pro-abortion laws but passed by the states.

But Cooke isn't having this lame femsplanation from the very effeminate Egger and very liberal California Democrat Patterico:

Charles C. W. Cooke @charlescwcooke

But this position doesn't make any sense, either, given that, just a couple of years ago, Cheney co-sponsored a bill that banned abortion nationally from "the moment of fertilization," and did so on the grounds that the Constitution mandated such a rule.

And now she's complaining at Kamala Harris rallies about the less-strict-than-that rules that some states passed after the issue was returned to the states--which she said she wanted but also apparently didn't because she tried to pass a national ban? Come on.

I simply do not understand why she didn't just say "I'm pro-life in the most comprehensive way possible--I think the 14th Amendment mandates a from-conception ban--but I think we need to elect Kamala Harris because Trump is unfit for office." The temptation was too great.

Joe Gabriel Simonson @SaysSimonson


Cheney saying she thinks Dobbs went too far is like the opposite side of the Trump coin. Trump never really cared about abortion but is pretty honest about it. Cheney, who once told voters fetuses have a constitutional right to life, never cared all along either.

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Posted by Disinformation Expert Ace at 12:11 PM Comments

What to Expect [Dave_in_Fla]

—Open Blogger

Disclaimer: The following analysis accounts for cheating that occurred in 2020. But, I can't predict Maduro style cheating, where the results are simply ignored.

***

As we approach November 5th, there is an election scenario that is firming up as the most likely result. I personally view the following as 80% likely to be the final result:

Trump wins the popular vote by 1%
Trump wins 312 Electoral Votes

312EV.JPG

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Posted by Open Blogger at 11:00 AM Comments

Mid-Morning Art Thread

—CBD

Ray Fortune1.jpg


La Fortune

Man Ray

Posted by CBD at 09:30 AM Comments






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