Poll: Thomas Massie Would Lose to a Republican Challenger?

Thomas Massie votes against all spending bills because he wants to be able to fundraise off of that questionable honor.

And now Trump and Musk are on opposite sides of Massie's reelection. Musk wants the House to vote against the Big Bloated Bill, and Trump wants them to vote in favor of it.

Musk says he will support Massie if he's primaried:

Tesla CEO and former Trump administration special employee Elon Musk says he'll back Rep. Thomas Massie in his 2026 primary race after President Donald Trump vowed to fund a primary challenger for the Kentucky Republican.

"Every member of Congress who campaigned on reducing government spending and then immediately voted for the biggest debt increase in history should hang their head in shame! And they will lose their primary next year if it is the last thing I do on this Earth," Musk, who led the administration's Department of Government Efficiency, posted Monday on X.

Former Michigan GOP Rep. Justin Amash replied to Musk, asking whether he'd support Massie after he came out against Trump's "big beautiful bill" over concerns of it adding to the deficit.

"I will," Musk responsded.

Trump is highlighting a new poll showing that Massie is on thin ice.

Not just for the budget dispute, but for opposing Trump's strike on Iran.

Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie is losing support among Republican primary voters in his own district, a new Kaplan Strategies poll shows. He now trails challenger Nicole Lee Ethington as voters turn on him for opposing major parts of President Trump's agenda.

Key Details:

Only 19% of likely GOP voters in Kentucky's 4th Congressional District say they would vote to reelect Massie no matter who challenges him -- a number that drops to 14% if Trump endorses an opponent.

In a head-to-head matchup, Massie trails Ethington 31% to 19%, with a majority of voters still undecided.

Massie's unfavorable rating stands at 62%, while Trump's favorability among respondents hits 89%.

Diving Deeper:

Congressman Thomas Massie is entering his 2026 reelection bid with little margin for error, according to a new poll from Kaplan Strategies released Monday. The poll, conducted June 23--24 among 368 likely Republican primary voters in Kentucky's 4th District, shows Massie lagging well behind challenger Nicole Lee Ethington in early support -- and facing sharp disapproval over several key votes.

Ethington, a registered nurse, currently leads Massie 31% to 19% in a hypothetical primary matchup. A significant 50% of voters remain undecided, but the underlying numbers signal deep dissatisfaction with Massie's record. Just 23% of respondents view him favorably, compared to a commanding 62% who view him unfavorably. President Donald Trump, by contrast, enjoys 89% favorability in the same poll -- and a Trump endorsement would drop Massie's support to just 14%.

The poll highlights a growing rift between Massie's libertarian-leaning approach and the prevailing MAGA sentiment in the GOP base. According to Kaplan Strategies, large majorities of voters expressed concern with Massie's past votes:

72% say they're less likely to support him because he opposed Trump's tax cuts and budget,

69% disapprove of his vote against the Take it Down Act, which would criminalize deepfake revenge porn,

58% are less likely to vote for him due to his opposition to Trump's pro-Israel policy stance.

Hey, it's a slow news day. Give me a break. I've got to put up anything close to newsy.

posted by Ace at 03:30 PM

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