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« Pravda: Condi Rice's Anti-Russian Stance Due To "Sexual Problems" | Main | Another member of the coalition of cowards is set to be unemployed. »
January 11, 2006

More Iran: Will Have Usable Nukes By 2007; Israeli Readies Strike Plans

We have some small amount of time, but no dicking-around time.

Israel is updating plans for a pre-emptive strike on Iran's nuclear facilities which could be launched as soon as the end of March, according to military and intelligence sources.

...

The Israeli raids would be carried out by long-range F-15E bombers and cruise missiles against a dozen key sites and are designed to set Tehran's weapons programme back by up to two years.

Pilots at the Israeli air force's elite 69 squadron have been briefed on the plan and have conducted rehearsals for their missions.

The prime targets would be the uranium enrichment plant at Natanz, 150 miles south of Tehran, a heavy-water production site at Arak, 120 miles south-west of the capital, and a site near Isfahan in central Iran which makes the uranium hexafluoride gas vital to the arms manufacturing process.

Here's the kicker:

Sources say one, possibly two airfields in Kurdish northern Iraq have been earmarked as launch-points to reduce flying time over Iran.

Sweet.


posted by Ace at 01:01 PM
Comments



Sorry, totally OT - But this goes to yesterday's thread on finding unwritten parts of the constitution. It's from Canada, so I know you'll have trouble staying awake, but here is the end result of that kind of constitutional thinking:


"The rule of law requires judges to uphold unwritten constitutional norms, even in the face of clearly enacted laws or hostile public opinion ... There is certainly no guarantee or presumption that a given list of constitutional principles is complete, even assuming the good faith intention of the drafters to provide such a catalogue."

Posted by: holdfast on January 11, 2006 01:18 PM

would these be secret plans, by any chance? I mean, how the hell do they expect to launch a surprise attack when they have given away the surprise?

Posted by: wiserbud on January 11, 2006 01:19 PM

More power to the Kurds (if true), but I wonder how this will play out in terms of Kurdish solidarity in Iraq. Not that the Sunnis will shed many tears about an invasion of Shi'ite Iran, but the Kurds could face some serious backlash from Iraqi Shi'ites and other Muslims groups over letting the Israelis use their airbases to hit Muslims. After all, as much as Sunnis and Shi'ites hate one another, they can at least agree on Joooooooo-hating.

Posted by: Sobek on January 11, 2006 01:30 PM

It's going to be interesting to see how this all plays out. Will negotiations actually work or in the end does it come down to stomping the crap out of them? Only time will tell and it seems there is little of that left.

Posted by: morning wood on January 11, 2006 01:30 PM

..airfields in Kurdish northern Iraq have been earmarked as launch-points to reduce flying time over Iran.

Babylon the great is fallen, is fallen, and is become the habitation of devils
Therefore shall her plagues come in one day, death, and mourning, and famine; and she shall be utterly burned with fire

Ripped from the headlines, as it were.

Posted by: Joe Mama on January 11, 2006 01:32 PM

Wiserbud, you are bang on! This is tantamount to Admiral Yamamoto writing to the New Tokyo York Times with his game plan just before hauling anchor for Pearl Harbor. It is BS on stilts.......

Unless,,,,,, the Israeli`s know that the Persians consider ANYTHING published by ACE to be disinformation; then it could work......

Posted by: Western Union Telegraph on January 11, 2006 01:32 PM

"Pilots at the Israeli air force's elite 69 squadron..." 69? *snicker*

Kurds helping Israel? Wow. Just...wow.

I guess enemy of my enemy is my friend kind of deal. But, still, this would be a major black eye for Iran. Actual Muslims helping Israel prevent Iran from getting nukes. Right next door, too. Would put a major damper on any of Iran's or Syria's unpleasant programs, if they realize the US and Iran have a cooperate ally so close to them. Which makes sense: the US has done more for them than anyone else (except G-d, who created them).

If there is a backlash, I actually fear for the Arab Sunnis. I believe Assyrians also live in the north, and they don't like the Arab Sunnis very much either. It would be difficult to constrain Kurds, Assyrians, and Shiites from engaging in extrajudicial measures against militant/armed Arab Sunnis.

Strangely enough, I feel better about the whole Iran situation now. Even if there are no plans being put in place, and this was leaked just to rattle Iran, it might just get people worked up enough to actually, y'know, do something about it. If it's genuine - woohoo! Irani nukes delayed! Which is better than nothing.

Although...I think the UN might not be pleased. Might pass a resolution condemning Israel. Oh my.

Posted by: Muslihoon on January 11, 2006 01:41 PM

Not that the stock market is anywhere close to right all the time, but a Dow at 11,000 is not a market that is counting on anybody taking out Iran anytime soon.

Posted by: steve sturm on January 11, 2006 01:48 PM

Come on guys, you think that the nation, Israel, which handily defeated the combined forces of the rab nations is going to worry about any advance notice of their intent? Besides there are a lot of Kurds in the areas of Iran adjacent to the Kurdish area of Iraq. What side do you think they will support?

All this aside, there probably is still a hope that the threat of military action will bring Iran to its senses on the nuclear proliferation issue.

Posted by: docdave on January 11, 2006 01:49 PM

Yet another reason--if we needed another one--to support the war in Iraq.

To me, Israel's right to a secure existence is one of those things called a basic inarguable premise.

Posted by: dulce on January 11, 2006 02:21 PM

dulce: I disagree. It has become abundantly clear that one must question every state's right to exist. This is practically demanded by the international community.

I therefore question Iran's right to exist. Oh, and Syria. And, don't forget Sudan.

(Now will the international people be happy? See how we've adopted their theories?)

Posted by: Muslihoon on January 11, 2006 02:32 PM

I don't remember there being this much discussion prior to the Osirak strike. In fact, that one seemed to surprise everyone, which was its beauty.

Posted by: Rittenhouse on January 11, 2006 02:46 PM

"Besides there are a lot of Kurds in the areas of Iran adjacent to the Kurdish area of Iraq. What side do you think they will support?"

I suspect that's one motivation for the Iraqi Kurds letting Israel use the bases. They might not like Israelis, but they don't like Iran, and they do like Iranian Kurds.

Posted by: on January 11, 2006 02:53 PM

And they still belong to the UN remmeber?

Posted by: spurwing plover on January 11, 2006 03:10 PM

Actually the Israelis have provided the Kurds with a lot of assistance over the years. Despised minorities gotta hang together.

Posted by: holdfas on January 11, 2006 03:15 PM

So we're going to provide bases. Good.

I feel somewhat comforted that Bush & Co have the balls to do what is right, rather than prattle like whores for the politically correct media pimps that otherwise pull their strings.

Go Israel! (we don't seem to have the balls to do it ourselves)

Posted by: Mussolini on January 11, 2006 04:05 PM

Wisebud: You're right, but there's not much secrecy left to lose. It's now a whole year since Seymour Hersh leaked the fact that US special forces teams had been inside Iran to mark potential targets. Either his CIA pals were using him as a conduit for DISinformation, or--thanks a heap, Sy!
As happened with Saddam, diplomats desperate to believe deals can be made with duplicitous thugs, and reporters who put helping their own careers and/or the enemy ahead of US national security (what's that? we're internationalists!) have handed the Iranians acres of time in which to bury, disperse and protect their nuke facilities.
Sobek: As to the Kurds, there is no love lost between them and the Iranians. Iranian agents have assassinated Kurdish leaders, and as recently as 1996, Iranian forces invaded Iraqi Kurdistan.
Nevertheless, to quote Thomas Jefferson: It! Could! Work!

Posted by: elly on January 11, 2006 04:19 PM

maybe they could still have the element of surprise if they've got everyone waiting around til the end of march?

Posted by: ramms on January 11, 2006 04:32 PM

Hmmm. Could Iraqi Kurds invade northern Iran and "liberate" their brother Kurds, creating a new state from Iraqi and Iranian Kurdistan?

I think an Israeli invasion plan as described would be a bad idea, if it is the only action taken. It would set back Iran's nuke plans, true, but without some kind of followup action, we'd just have a whole lot (more) of pissed Muslims waging jihad against the West. It isn't a sufficient step by itself.

Posted by: lmg on January 11, 2006 04:35 PM

"Could Iraqi Kurds invade northern Iran and "liberate" their brother Kurds, creating a new state from Iraqi and Iranian Kurdistan?"

It would piss off the Turks, the Iranians and the Syrians, but (a) I don't care about the Iranians and Syrians, and (b) the Turks tend to be fair-weather friends anyway, so screw them, too.

Much as I'd hate to see the Lefties gloating about Iraq fracturing in favor of independent Kurdistan, it would be all kinds of cool to see them get a country, especially since they would be like another Israel in terms of mid-east allies.

Posted by: on January 11, 2006 04:57 PM

It could be a real plan leaked by some asshat in State/CIA. It could be some sharp fella's way to see which Iranian sites start buzzing like anthills in anticipation of a rumored attack. It could be a complete rope-a-dope to get Iran looking the wrong way and not catch an attack coming from the Gulf, or across the mountains from the East (kind of like the rumored amphibious landings in Gulf I). I have no idea. Incompetence, treason from the left & the press, and the usual fog of war make anything I could offer here less useful than a Magic 8-Ball.

Posted by: Russ from Winterset on January 11, 2006 06:51 PM

Umm, the Israelis aren't going to stage from northern Iraq.

Posted by: Dave in VA on January 11, 2006 08:36 PM

"Umm, the Israelis aren't going to stage from northern Iraq."

Why not? What are they going to do then?
Israel cannot allow Iran to get the bomb.
The question is, do we participate, or just stand and watch like the Europeans?

Posted by: Log Cabin on January 11, 2006 08:48 PM

They're going to fly from Israel nonstop and do the job. They're not going to ask our permission, they're not going to waste time or opsec with some crap strip in Kurdistan, and they're not going to be opposed on the return leg of the flight once they leave Iranian airspace.


Posted by: Dave in VA on January 11, 2006 09:09 PM

If the Israeli's were really serious, they would launch a raid with commandos parachuted in. This would allow them to thoroughly destroy the targets and then retrieve their people. An additional target must be the compounds where the scientists/engineers are housed to kill as many as possible regardless of their nationality. This would take the Iranians out of action for quite some time. It would be a mission with little chance of survival, but when the survival of one's homeland is in the balance, a nation's patriots must do what is necessary.
Just thinkin out loud...

Posted by: Jimmy Ed on January 11, 2006 11:13 PM

They're going to fly from Israel nonstop and do the job. They're not going to ask our permission, they're not going to waste time or opsec with some crap strip in Kurdistan, and they're not going to be opposed on the return leg of the flight once they leave Iranian airspace.

I don't see the Israelis getting into a ground war in Iran but I do think that the Israelis will not do an independent air strike without first notifying the USA. As possible evidence of their restrain, they held back retaliation to Iraqi missile attacks during the first gulf war at our request. If a ground war in Iran is warranted, I'm afraid that it is us again with what ever coilition we can get.


Posted by: docdave on January 12, 2006 02:50 PM
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