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October 30, 2004

A Moveable Feast: Bush Gets Fat on "Moveable Voters," 52-33

Only 8 percent of the electorate remains in play, but it seems late deciders are breaking for the incumbent:

Oct. 29, 2004 -- A better showing among movable voters has helped put George W. Bush back at the 50 percent mark, with 47 percent support for John Kerry among likely voters as the 2004 presidential campaign enters its closing days.
...

The ABC News tracking poll shows no impact from the controversy over missing munitions in Iraq.

...

This poll is based on interviews Monday through Thursday; results from last Saturday and Sunday, which were two of Kerry's three best days since this tracking poll began Oct. 1, have rolled out of the average. The results the past four days have been quite stable — a small numerical advantage for Bush, within the margin of error, each night.

...

Movables in today's results favor Bush by 52-33 percent, a change from 46-36 percent in Kerry's favor as of Sunday. It's a small group — eight percent of likely voters, down from 14 percent when tracking began — but in a close race, an important one.

Kim Richards?

Is there any doubt?

Other polling news ranges from mixed to light Kim Richards.

Zogby will claim that Kerry is up by one in tomorrow's poll.

The Cleveland Plain Dealer will show Bush up by 3, 48-45, in Ohio.

The "conservative" FoxNews poll-- which has generally tended to be one of Bush's worst polls -- now shows him with a five-point lead nationally:

October 30, 2004 -- President Bush jumped to a 5-point nationwide lead in a Fox News poll out yesterday amid growing — but very cautious — optimism among Republicans that the president will win Florida and the swing state of Iowa.
Nationally, Bush was at 50 percent to Kerry's 45 with Ralph Nader under 1 percent in the Fox poll conducted Wednesday and Thursday evening. It has an error margin of 3 percentage points.

...

The ABC national tracking poll also had Bush moving ahead to a 50-47 percent lead, but the Zogby national tracking poll had a tie at 47 percent each. Unlike the others, which show a pro-Bush trend, Zogby showed a slight trend toward Kerry.

The article notes the obvious-- Bush can lose Ohio, but then he'd have to pick up a couple of Gore states to win.

Damnit, Curt Schilling has backed out of campaigning with Bush in NH.

The Rocky Mountain News shows Bush with a suspiciously-big lead in Colorado, 51-42.

Real Clear Politics' summary looks good for Bush, but just barely so:

ABC/Wash Post: Bush 50, Kerry 47, Nader <1

FOX/Op Dyn: Bush 50, Kerry 45, Nader <1 | Bush JA @ 49

Battleground (w/leaners | 10/25-10/28): Bush 51, Kerry 46 | Bush JA @ 53

Rasmussen: Bush 50, Kerry 48 |

Zogby: Bush 47, Kerry 47, Nader 1

TIPP: Bush 46, Kerry 46, Nader 2 | Bush 45, Kerry 45

Kick the dog and brew the coffee, it's going to be a long Tuesday Night.

posted by Ace at 03:24 AM

Comments

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"Yee Gawds!"
Her?
Oh, just flashback my ass!

(And Schilling was told by the Boston brass to shut the fuck up.)

Posted by: TC-LeatherPenguinl on October 30, 2004 03:53 AM

Woo-hoo! This means I don't have to vote!

Kidding, kidding. I want my vote to slice like an fucking hammer. No, screw that. I want my vote to slice like fucking mjolner! (Sorry to non-geek readers. Thor's hammer and all.)

I just wish Arnold was campaigning for Bush out here in California. It might make a difference EC-wise. I mean, did anybody else see the Columbus, OH rally on the teevee? The crowd was gi-nomous and they were going apeshit with enthusiasm!

Posted by: Sean M. on October 30, 2004 04:31 AM

I wonder if there's something in Schilling's contract about avoiding actions that might negatively impact his team's business prospects. Anyway, backing out just might be more effective than appearing would have been if it gets more press coverage so more swing-able voters hear about it and learn he was planning to back Bush. At a Bush rally, he would mostly have been preaching to the choir.

It will be interested to see the polls taken Saturday and Sunday, assuming folks have had a chance to absorb the cumulative impact of the two terrorist statements/threats. One plus for the RNC: it seems unlikely the OBL tape will leave enough media oxygen to sustain explosivesgate.

Posted by: Lastango on October 30, 2004 04:39 AM

Big news here is that Bush is at or over 50% in 3 of 5 tracking polls for first time...if he can maintain that thru Monday, look for BIG win on Tuesday.

Posted by: superhawk on October 30, 2004 06:20 AM

Whatever happened to Kim Richards, anyway? Damn she was HOOOOT in "Tuff Turf" with James Spader. Christ, that was what, in 1985 or so... I'm getting old.

Posted by: Roy in Illinoisq on October 30, 2004 07:24 AM

Curt Schilling! Censorship! Ashkkkroft! Gitmo! Patriot Act! Speaking truth to power!

Hope you've got the giant hi-res split-beaver shot of Kim Richards ready to go for Tuesday night.

Posted by: Paul Zrimsek on October 30, 2004 10:00 AM

Well I'm in liberal-infested Connecticut, which is firmly in the bag for Kerry *spit*

-but I will vote anyway, and I hope that my fellow Constitution State Conservatives turn out the vote too, just to make it closer than usual and see the complacent libbies crap their diapers like they did in the '02 midterm elections.

Posted by: lauraw on October 30, 2004 10:42 AM

I think either MSNBC or one of the news papers uses the Mason Dixon poll. They are probably the most accurate historically, at least in the 2002 elections they missed only 1 race. Zogby is was supposedly WAY off in 2002. I like mason dixon, they do not have a new poll every 3 days. they do it every few weeks which i think shows less of the jumping around.

Kerry Spot did a bit on this a while back about the history of the polls.

Posted by: Jennifer on October 30, 2004 10:58 AM

Zogby did you say? Oh, you mean the guy whose brother leads a Muslim American organization that has endorsed Kerry.

But that won't change anything in his professional work. wink, wink, nod

Bush's JA is +50 and he's polling over 50%. End. Of. Story.

And I already mailed mine. Everybody else drag somebody to the polls on Tuesday!!

Posted by: Birkel on October 30, 2004 11:06 AM

Schilling was on crutches getting into the parade boat today.

Unfortunately, the injury may have finally caught up to him...to bad for W.

But the endorsement stands, nevertheless.

Posted by: sonofnixon on October 30, 2004 11:16 AM

BTW, Red Sox co-owner Tom Werner (who dates Katie Couric) held a Kerry rally last week at the Sox farm club's stadium in Lowell, MA.

So, it would be very hypocritical for Sox brass to proclaim: "No campaigning"

Besides, I do not believe that Schilling would accept such a order.

Posted by: sonofnixon on October 30, 2004 11:20 AM

I've forgiven Schilling for leaving the Phillies.

Posted by: Joe R. the Unabrewer on October 30, 2004 11:55 AM

We will know this election has broken wide open for W when Ace proclaims that "Bush is getting Oliver Willis fat" on undecided voters....

Posted by: senator philabuster on October 30, 2004 12:20 PM

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Top Headlines

Whoops! I posted about Dan Goldman losing the NY congressional primary. He might do that, but it won't be tonight -- the primary isn't held until June 23.

One race to keep an eye on: the Levi's heir nepo baby and egregious "Designated Liar" Dan Goldman -- one of the Democrats from a safe district Democrats send out to spread their most indefensible lies -- may actually lose his lower Manhattan/Brooklyn set due to, get this, antisemitism in the Democrat primary electorate.
Antisemitism? In the anti-Nazi Democrat Party? Sounds crazy, I know, but apparently the anti-Nazi Party wants to eliminate Jews.

Henry Rosoff
@HenryRosoff

🚨EXCLUSIVE POLL:

Brad Lander is 34-pts ahead of Congressman Dan Goldman with #NY10 Democratic Primary voters. @ZohranKMamdani is backing the former Comptroller.

@bradlander: 57%

@danielsgoldman: 23%

Poll by @PIX11News & @EmersonPolling.

MORE: http://pix11.com

Oh my Totenkopf Tattoo, that is a DRUBBING!
I'm usually very anti-antisemitism but if the Communist Antisemite Jihadists can pull this one off, Go Communist Antisemite Jihadists, Go!

Democrat Senator Rueben Gallego, who served his wife with divorce papers when she was nine months pregnant so that he could marry his side-piece, counsels us that we should not judge Graham Platner for his infidelity because these things are personal matters, Racists:

Sahil Kapur
@sahilkapur

Sen. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., on Platner: "We know that Graham has lived not your typical political experience. He's been very clear and open with his wife, and they worked through whatever they worked through. At the end of the day, this man has had 60 more town halls than Susan Collins has. He's winning the polls, he's willing to accept that he has grown as a person, and I think we should accept that."

Gallego says the drip-drip of revelations won't harm Platner's campaign.

"I think you guys are all in a bubble here right now. The drip, drip that's actually happening is Americans are really, really hurt the fact that gas is still high, food is still high, they can't buy a home, you can't afford rent. They're not going to care about text messages and everything else like that that happened years ago, especially when it was worked out between spouses."

I like that he says that it's okay that Graham Platner sexted 12 different women within months of marrying the woman to sponge off her because he wasn't then "living a political life" -- the clear meaning being, "We all cheat, we just don't cheat when we're running for office, and he didn't know he was running for office when he was sending dicpics to half the women he ran into."
Except he was running: His own wife turned the sexts over to his campaign.
And obviously Reuben Gallego didn't let his "political life" get in the way of his extramarital dating life:

Podcast: CBD goes solo in a short segment...talking about Iran, the nativist issues surrounding Reform and Restore in the UK, and the delicious pain of an imploding Democrat Party, courtesy of Talerico and Platner!

TJM ranks all of John Ford's films. All of them. TJM is very tired.

Funny -- if you don't mind clicking on TikTok. "Amy.Pranks.22" set up an AI scam-call screener which replies to a foreign scammer trying to get her bank information with Trumpian bluster. This might be fake because I don't see how a program can respond in real time, but it's funny.

Food Thread Pizza Dough Recipe

The ULA rocket just launched
Thanks to Joyenz
The rocket's enormous engines are fueled by "the volcanic heterosexual lust between James Talarico and his Neighbor With a Uterus 'girlfriend'"
I hope Amazon's rocket works better than the Amazon Prime app does as far as allowing people to watch the black and white version of "Spider-Noir"

From the CA Post:

Spencer Pratt is now Karen Bass' biggest headache.

A bombshell California Post poll conducted with McLaughlin & Associates shows the reality TV star-turned-mayoral candidate has surged to a statistical tie with the incumbent mayor.

And voters blame homelessness, affordability and the direction of Los Angeles as the reason for turning on Bass.

Pratt now leads the field with 30.1% support, compared with 29.5% for Bass, setting up a razor-thin race heading into next week's primary.

Socialist councilwoman Nithya Raman sits in third place at 23.4%.

Thanks to beckster

Just like "Spartacus" Corey Booker, now that James Talarico is running for a higher office, he unveils his previously-unknown "girlfriend" and hooboy, it just so happens she used to work for him, and, get this, likes to "dance the night away" at gay bars
Gee I wonder where they might have met
Oh and she's a vegan
When Corey Booker needed a "girlfriend," he conjured up known LGBTQ activist Rosario Dawson. How convenient that when these guys need a girlfriend to show off to the normies that just happen to find an activist with a strong history of and interest in Supporting Gay Men
But seriously, this James Talarico romance with a Neighbor with a Uterus is a love story for the ages. The passion of their lovemaking is hotter than a blue star with a core of Primordial Sex Atoms created in the Big Bang

"Journalists" are all drunks, criminals, sex-pests, and liars, exhibit #25,239,331

And just like that, #PunchANazi became Punch a Ballot for a Nazi

Was the "transatlantic accent" favored by stage and screen actors of the 40s and 50s "fake"? This linguist says no, it was a real accent

"Teen" charged with five counts of attempted murder after attempting to run down police officers with his car in yet another "teen takeover" permitted by woke racist incompetent Chicago mayor Brandon Johnson
Johnson's response to the "teen takeovers" of streets and businesses that he refuses to make arrests to stop is to go after social media companies for not deleting messages to coordinate the "teen takeovers." Um, they're supposed to find these messages and delete them in real time?
It makes no sense but he has to offer an "alternative" plan to just arresting lawbreakers -- which he absolutely refuses to do, saying we "can't arrest our way out" of rampant crime.

The Babylon Bee's crack AI team uses AI crack to simulate the first woman president

TJM explores the world of John Ford movies.

Future Tucker Carlson guest James Talarico:

James Talarico
@jamestalarico

Black Americans in a church.

Mexican Americans in a store.

Asian Americans in a spa.

Radicalized white men are the greatest domestic terrorist threat in our country.

He's referring to three mass attacks committed by white men in, oh, the past six or eight years. There were a huge number of mass shootings and bombings he had to skip over to cherry pick three committed by white men. Which kind of makes me think that "white men" are not the greatest terrorist threat in our country.
No, I doubt he'll be a guest on Tucker Carlson. The only thing that Tucker clings to that he claims makes him "conservative" is a palpable hatred of gays. Any time there's a communist enslaving their population and executing dissenters and conservatives, Tucker praises that dictator by saying "at least he represses the homos!"

Podcast: CBD and J.J. Sefton discuss the newest iteration of the Iranian negotiations, with the hope that the President will stick to his guns and get rid of the nuclear material, Minneapolis mayor Frey is scum, and an idiot, Artificial Intelligence, and more!

Polls close in Texas at 7pm local (8pm for the East Coast). Vote the RINO out.

TJM celebrates Memorial Day the only way he knows how.