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October 30, 2004

A Moveable Feast: Bush Gets Fat on "Moveable Voters," 52-33

Only 8 percent of the electorate remains in play, but it seems late deciders are breaking for the incumbent:

Oct. 29, 2004 -- A better showing among movable voters has helped put George W. Bush back at the 50 percent mark, with 47 percent support for John Kerry among likely voters as the 2004 presidential campaign enters its closing days.
...

The ABC News tracking poll shows no impact from the controversy over missing munitions in Iraq.

...

This poll is based on interviews Monday through Thursday; results from last Saturday and Sunday, which were two of Kerry's three best days since this tracking poll began Oct. 1, have rolled out of the average. The results the past four days have been quite stable — a small numerical advantage for Bush, within the margin of error, each night.

...

Movables in today's results favor Bush by 52-33 percent, a change from 46-36 percent in Kerry's favor as of Sunday. It's a small group — eight percent of likely voters, down from 14 percent when tracking began — but in a close race, an important one.

Kim Richards?

Is there any doubt?

Other polling news ranges from mixed to light Kim Richards.

Zogby will claim that Kerry is up by one in tomorrow's poll.

The Cleveland Plain Dealer will show Bush up by 3, 48-45, in Ohio.

The "conservative" FoxNews poll-- which has generally tended to be one of Bush's worst polls -- now shows him with a five-point lead nationally:

October 30, 2004 -- President Bush jumped to a 5-point nationwide lead in a Fox News poll out yesterday amid growing — but very cautious — optimism among Republicans that the president will win Florida and the swing state of Iowa.
Nationally, Bush was at 50 percent to Kerry's 45 with Ralph Nader under 1 percent in the Fox poll conducted Wednesday and Thursday evening. It has an error margin of 3 percentage points.

...

The ABC national tracking poll also had Bush moving ahead to a 50-47 percent lead, but the Zogby national tracking poll had a tie at 47 percent each. Unlike the others, which show a pro-Bush trend, Zogby showed a slight trend toward Kerry.

The article notes the obvious-- Bush can lose Ohio, but then he'd have to pick up a couple of Gore states to win.

Damnit, Curt Schilling has backed out of campaigning with Bush in NH.

The Rocky Mountain News shows Bush with a suspiciously-big lead in Colorado, 51-42.

Real Clear Politics' summary looks good for Bush, but just barely so:

ABC/Wash Post: Bush 50, Kerry 47, Nader <1

FOX/Op Dyn: Bush 50, Kerry 45, Nader <1 | Bush JA @ 49

Battleground (w/leaners | 10/25-10/28): Bush 51, Kerry 46 | Bush JA @ 53

Rasmussen: Bush 50, Kerry 48 |

Zogby: Bush 47, Kerry 47, Nader 1

TIPP: Bush 46, Kerry 46, Nader 2 | Bush 45, Kerry 45

Kick the dog and brew the coffee, it's going to be a long Tuesday Night.

posted by Ace at 03:24 AM

Comments

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"Yee Gawds!"
Her?
Oh, just flashback my ass!

(And Schilling was told by the Boston brass to shut the fuck up.)

Posted by: TC-LeatherPenguinl on October 30, 2004 03:53 AM

Woo-hoo! This means I don't have to vote!

Kidding, kidding. I want my vote to slice like an fucking hammer. No, screw that. I want my vote to slice like fucking mjolner! (Sorry to non-geek readers. Thor's hammer and all.)

I just wish Arnold was campaigning for Bush out here in California. It might make a difference EC-wise. I mean, did anybody else see the Columbus, OH rally on the teevee? The crowd was gi-nomous and they were going apeshit with enthusiasm!

Posted by: Sean M. on October 30, 2004 04:31 AM

I wonder if there's something in Schilling's contract about avoiding actions that might negatively impact his team's business prospects. Anyway, backing out just might be more effective than appearing would have been if it gets more press coverage so more swing-able voters hear about it and learn he was planning to back Bush. At a Bush rally, he would mostly have been preaching to the choir.

It will be interested to see the polls taken Saturday and Sunday, assuming folks have had a chance to absorb the cumulative impact of the two terrorist statements/threats. One plus for the RNC: it seems unlikely the OBL tape will leave enough media oxygen to sustain explosivesgate.

Posted by: Lastango on October 30, 2004 04:39 AM

Big news here is that Bush is at or over 50% in 3 of 5 tracking polls for first time...if he can maintain that thru Monday, look for BIG win on Tuesday.

Posted by: superhawk on October 30, 2004 06:20 AM

Whatever happened to Kim Richards, anyway? Damn she was HOOOOT in "Tuff Turf" with James Spader. Christ, that was what, in 1985 or so... I'm getting old.

Posted by: Roy in Illinoisq on October 30, 2004 07:24 AM

Curt Schilling! Censorship! Ashkkkroft! Gitmo! Patriot Act! Speaking truth to power!

Hope you've got the giant hi-res split-beaver shot of Kim Richards ready to go for Tuesday night.

Posted by: Paul Zrimsek on October 30, 2004 10:00 AM

Well I'm in liberal-infested Connecticut, which is firmly in the bag for Kerry *spit*

-but I will vote anyway, and I hope that my fellow Constitution State Conservatives turn out the vote too, just to make it closer than usual and see the complacent libbies crap their diapers like they did in the '02 midterm elections.

Posted by: lauraw on October 30, 2004 10:42 AM

I think either MSNBC or one of the news papers uses the Mason Dixon poll. They are probably the most accurate historically, at least in the 2002 elections they missed only 1 race. Zogby is was supposedly WAY off in 2002. I like mason dixon, they do not have a new poll every 3 days. they do it every few weeks which i think shows less of the jumping around.

Kerry Spot did a bit on this a while back about the history of the polls.

Posted by: Jennifer on October 30, 2004 10:58 AM

Zogby did you say? Oh, you mean the guy whose brother leads a Muslim American organization that has endorsed Kerry.

But that won't change anything in his professional work. wink, wink, nod

Bush's JA is +50 and he's polling over 50%. End. Of. Story.

And I already mailed mine. Everybody else drag somebody to the polls on Tuesday!!

Posted by: Birkel on October 30, 2004 11:06 AM

Schilling was on crutches getting into the parade boat today.

Unfortunately, the injury may have finally caught up to him...to bad for W.

But the endorsement stands, nevertheless.

Posted by: sonofnixon on October 30, 2004 11:16 AM

BTW, Red Sox co-owner Tom Werner (who dates Katie Couric) held a Kerry rally last week at the Sox farm club's stadium in Lowell, MA.

So, it would be very hypocritical for Sox brass to proclaim: "No campaigning"

Besides, I do not believe that Schilling would accept such a order.

Posted by: sonofnixon on October 30, 2004 11:20 AM

I've forgiven Schilling for leaving the Phillies.

Posted by: Joe R. the Unabrewer on October 30, 2004 11:55 AM

We will know this election has broken wide open for W when Ace proclaims that "Bush is getting Oliver Willis fat" on undecided voters....

Posted by: senator philabuster on October 30, 2004 12:20 PM

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In response to someone asking why the video tape doesn't show Tyler Robinson's face (PS, it does, but it's crappy video so it's blurry):

Candace Owens
@RealCandaceO

Because as I demonstrated on my show, there were MANY young men that all woke up and decided to dress in Maroon shirts and light shorts on the day of the Charlie's assassination.

The footage can be any one of these young men and in my opinion is likely multiple of them.

If Tyler Robinson's defense would like to contact me-- I'd be happy to supply them the folder of the maroon boys that I began archiving when I noticed the bizarre fashion trend.

I have thus far ID'd two of them, but will focus on IDing the rest of them when I am back on air.

I have maintained that the Feds had multiple decoy maroon boys on the ground that day. Without a clear image, they certainly cannot declare it is Tyler Robinson which is why all the Zionist influencers are hoping they can simply hypnotize the public into trusting blurry images and videos.

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Blake Neff
@BlakeSNeff

BREAKING: Lance Twiggs says that Robinson admitted to him in-person on Sept. 11 that the message he had sent the night before (presumably, messages sent while he was trying to retrieve his rifle the night of Sept 10) was true. He says Robinson told him "He wishes he hadn't done it."

Fenix Ammunition
@FenixAmmunition

Photos of the ammunition recovered from Tyler Robinson.

Remington headstamp on the case and despite the somewhat low resolution on the photo you can see the somewhat blunted nature of the projectile's tip.

This is a Remington Cor-Lokt soft point round. It's SPECIFICALLY designed to deform, slow down, and prevent an exit wound. Available at literally every single gun store and sporting goods store that sells ammunition.

In fact, 16 out of the 17 .30-06 varieties manufactured by Remington use some type of expanding, deforming, or fragmenting bullet. Only ONE of their products uses a full metal jacket projectile that could/would be expected to leave an exit wound.

Here's a clip of them sitting in my desk.

This has been the most easily debunked claim of their entire web of lies and it's really mind blowing considering this is exactly what you would choose for an assassination.

But yeah, definitely keep getting all your information from the DEI hire and the Portland pizza boy. I'm sure they know more about this than I do.

Post here, showing Tyler Robinson's ammunition, matching this guy's own box. And it is an expanding-tip hollow-point round.

Boy these Internet Experts (TM) sure do get a lot of things wrong.

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She always smiled for the people she'd meet
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