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October 30, 2004

A Moveable Feast: Bush Gets Fat on "Moveable Voters," 52-33

Only 8 percent of the electorate remains in play, but it seems late deciders are breaking for the incumbent:

Oct. 29, 2004 -- A better showing among movable voters has helped put George W. Bush back at the 50 percent mark, with 47 percent support for John Kerry among likely voters as the 2004 presidential campaign enters its closing days.
...

The ABC News tracking poll shows no impact from the controversy over missing munitions in Iraq.

...

This poll is based on interviews Monday through Thursday; results from last Saturday and Sunday, which were two of Kerry's three best days since this tracking poll began Oct. 1, have rolled out of the average. The results the past four days have been quite stable — a small numerical advantage for Bush, within the margin of error, each night.

...

Movables in today's results favor Bush by 52-33 percent, a change from 46-36 percent in Kerry's favor as of Sunday. It's a small group — eight percent of likely voters, down from 14 percent when tracking began — but in a close race, an important one.

Kim Richards?

Is there any doubt?

Other polling news ranges from mixed to light Kim Richards.

Zogby will claim that Kerry is up by one in tomorrow's poll.

The Cleveland Plain Dealer will show Bush up by 3, 48-45, in Ohio.

The "conservative" FoxNews poll-- which has generally tended to be one of Bush's worst polls -- now shows him with a five-point lead nationally:

October 30, 2004 -- President Bush jumped to a 5-point nationwide lead in a Fox News poll out yesterday amid growing — but very cautious — optimism among Republicans that the president will win Florida and the swing state of Iowa.
Nationally, Bush was at 50 percent to Kerry's 45 with Ralph Nader under 1 percent in the Fox poll conducted Wednesday and Thursday evening. It has an error margin of 3 percentage points.

...

The ABC national tracking poll also had Bush moving ahead to a 50-47 percent lead, but the Zogby national tracking poll had a tie at 47 percent each. Unlike the others, which show a pro-Bush trend, Zogby showed a slight trend toward Kerry.

The article notes the obvious-- Bush can lose Ohio, but then he'd have to pick up a couple of Gore states to win.

Damnit, Curt Schilling has backed out of campaigning with Bush in NH.

The Rocky Mountain News shows Bush with a suspiciously-big lead in Colorado, 51-42.

Real Clear Politics' summary looks good for Bush, but just barely so:

ABC/Wash Post: Bush 50, Kerry 47, Nader <1

FOX/Op Dyn: Bush 50, Kerry 45, Nader <1 | Bush JA @ 49

Battleground (w/leaners | 10/25-10/28): Bush 51, Kerry 46 | Bush JA @ 53

Rasmussen: Bush 50, Kerry 48 |

Zogby: Bush 47, Kerry 47, Nader 1

TIPP: Bush 46, Kerry 46, Nader 2 | Bush 45, Kerry 45

Kick the dog and brew the coffee, it's going to be a long Tuesday Night.

posted by Ace at 03:24 AM

Comments

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"Yee Gawds!"
Her?
Oh, just flashback my ass!

(And Schilling was told by the Boston brass to shut the fuck up.)

Posted by: TC-LeatherPenguinl on October 30, 2004 03:53 AM

Woo-hoo! This means I don't have to vote!

Kidding, kidding. I want my vote to slice like an fucking hammer. No, screw that. I want my vote to slice like fucking mjolner! (Sorry to non-geek readers. Thor's hammer and all.)

I just wish Arnold was campaigning for Bush out here in California. It might make a difference EC-wise. I mean, did anybody else see the Columbus, OH rally on the teevee? The crowd was gi-nomous and they were going apeshit with enthusiasm!

Posted by: Sean M. on October 30, 2004 04:31 AM

I wonder if there's something in Schilling's contract about avoiding actions that might negatively impact his team's business prospects. Anyway, backing out just might be more effective than appearing would have been if it gets more press coverage so more swing-able voters hear about it and learn he was planning to back Bush. At a Bush rally, he would mostly have been preaching to the choir.

It will be interested to see the polls taken Saturday and Sunday, assuming folks have had a chance to absorb the cumulative impact of the two terrorist statements/threats. One plus for the RNC: it seems unlikely the OBL tape will leave enough media oxygen to sustain explosivesgate.

Posted by: Lastango on October 30, 2004 04:39 AM

Big news here is that Bush is at or over 50% in 3 of 5 tracking polls for first time...if he can maintain that thru Monday, look for BIG win on Tuesday.

Posted by: superhawk on October 30, 2004 06:20 AM

Whatever happened to Kim Richards, anyway? Damn she was HOOOOT in "Tuff Turf" with James Spader. Christ, that was what, in 1985 or so... I'm getting old.

Posted by: Roy in Illinoisq on October 30, 2004 07:24 AM

Curt Schilling! Censorship! Ashkkkroft! Gitmo! Patriot Act! Speaking truth to power!

Hope you've got the giant hi-res split-beaver shot of Kim Richards ready to go for Tuesday night.

Posted by: Paul Zrimsek on October 30, 2004 10:00 AM

Well I'm in liberal-infested Connecticut, which is firmly in the bag for Kerry *spit*

-but I will vote anyway, and I hope that my fellow Constitution State Conservatives turn out the vote too, just to make it closer than usual and see the complacent libbies crap their diapers like they did in the '02 midterm elections.

Posted by: lauraw on October 30, 2004 10:42 AM

I think either MSNBC or one of the news papers uses the Mason Dixon poll. They are probably the most accurate historically, at least in the 2002 elections they missed only 1 race. Zogby is was supposedly WAY off in 2002. I like mason dixon, they do not have a new poll every 3 days. they do it every few weeks which i think shows less of the jumping around.

Kerry Spot did a bit on this a while back about the history of the polls.

Posted by: Jennifer on October 30, 2004 10:58 AM

Zogby did you say? Oh, you mean the guy whose brother leads a Muslim American organization that has endorsed Kerry.

But that won't change anything in his professional work. wink, wink, nod

Bush's JA is +50 and he's polling over 50%. End. Of. Story.

And I already mailed mine. Everybody else drag somebody to the polls on Tuesday!!

Posted by: Birkel on October 30, 2004 11:06 AM

Schilling was on crutches getting into the parade boat today.

Unfortunately, the injury may have finally caught up to him...to bad for W.

But the endorsement stands, nevertheless.

Posted by: sonofnixon on October 30, 2004 11:16 AM

BTW, Red Sox co-owner Tom Werner (who dates Katie Couric) held a Kerry rally last week at the Sox farm club's stadium in Lowell, MA.

So, it would be very hypocritical for Sox brass to proclaim: "No campaigning"

Besides, I do not believe that Schilling would accept such a order.

Posted by: sonofnixon on October 30, 2004 11:20 AM

I've forgiven Schilling for leaving the Phillies.

Posted by: Joe R. the Unabrewer on October 30, 2004 11:55 AM

We will know this election has broken wide open for W when Ace proclaims that "Bush is getting Oliver Willis fat" on undecided voters....

Posted by: senator philabuster on October 30, 2004 12:20 PM

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Top Headlines

Kid punks CNN chump by speaking truth to retard

Podcast: CBD and Sefton talk birthright citizenship, the 14th Amendment and SCOTUS, no boots in Iran, Artemis II and refocusing NASA, the NBA's hatred of everything non-woke, and more!

In more marketing for Project Hail Mary, scientists say they've found the biosigns indicating life growing on an alien planet. It's not proof, just signatures of chemicals that are produced by biological metabolism, and it could be nothing, but scientists think it's a strong sign that this planet is inhabited by something.

In a paper published in the Astrophysical Journal Letters, a team of scientists announced the detection of dimethyl sulfide (along with a similar detection of dimethyl disulfide) in the atmosphere of an exoplanet called K2-18b. This is actually the second detection of dimethyl sulfide made on this planet, following a tentative detection in 2023.
Tons of chemicals are detected in the atmospheres of celestial objects every day. But dimethyl sulfide is different, because on Earth, it's only produced by living organisms.
"It is a shock to the system," Nikku Madhusudhan, first author on the paper, told the New York Times. "We spent an enormous amount of time just trying to get rid of the signal."

He means they tried to prove the signal was caused by things other than dimethyl sulfide but they could not.

Artemis moon shot a go, scheduled for 6:24 Eastern time tonight
Great marketing arranged by Amazon to promote Project Hail Mary. Okay not really but it does work out that way.

TJM talks John Boorman, director of Excalibur

Good rickroll

What? Skeleton of the most famous Musketeer, D'Artagnan, possibly discovered in Dutch church closet.
Dumas picked four names of real musketeers out of a history book, D'Artagnan, Athos, Aramis, and Porthos. So there was an actual D'Artagnan, though he made most of the story up. (Or, you know, all of it.)*

Charles de Batz de Castelmore, known as d'Artagnan, the famous musketeer of Kings Louis XIII and Louis XIV, spent his life in the service of the French crown.
The Gascon nobleman inspired Alexandre Dumas's hero in "The Three Musketeers" in the 19th century, a character now known worldwide thanks to the novel and numerous film adaptations.
D'Artagnan was killed during the siege of Maastricht in 1673, and there is a statue honoring the musketeer in the city. His final resting place has remained a mystery ever since.

A lot of Dumas's stories are based on bits of real history. The plot of the >Three Musketeers, about trying to recover lost diamonds from the queen's necklace, was cribbed from the then-almost-contemporaneous Affair of the Queen's Necklace. And the Man in the Iron Mask is based on real accounts of a prisoner forced to wear a mask (though I think it was a velvet mask).
* Oh, I should mention, Dumas says all this, about finding the names in an old book, in the prologue to his novel. But authors lie a lot. They frequently present fictions as based on historic fact. The twist is, he was actually telling the truth here. At least about these four musketeers having actually existed and served under Louis XIV.
Fun fact: You know the beginning of A Fistful of Dollars where the local gunslingers make fun of Clint Eastwood's donkey and Eastwood demands they apologize to the donkey? That's lifted from The Three Musketeers. Rochefort mocks D'Artagnan's old, brokedown farm horse and D'Artagnan is incensed.

A commenter asked which should be read first, The Hobbit of LOTR?
Easy, no question -- read The Hobbit first. It's actually the start of the story and comes first chronologically. It sets up some major characters and major pieces in play in LOTR.
Also, the Hobbit is Beginner-Friendly, which LOTR isn't. The Hobbit really is a delightful book, and a fast read. It's chatty, it's casual, it's exciting, and it's funny. In that dry cheeky British humor way. I love that the narrator is constantly making little asides and commentary, like he's just sitting next to you telling you this story as it occurs to him.
LOTR is a very long story. Fifteen hundred pages or so. The Hobbit is relatively short and very punchy and easy to read. If you don't like The Hobbit, you can skip out on LOTR. If you do like it, you'll be primed to read LOTR.
Oh, I should say: The Hobbit is written as if it's for children, but one of those smart children's stories that are also for adults. Don't worry, there's also real fighting and violence and horror in it, too.
LOTR is written for adults. (It's said that Tolkien wrote both for his children, but LOTR was written 17 years later, when his children were adults.) Some might not like The Hobbit due to its sometimes frivolous tone. Me, I love it. I find it constantly amusing. Both are really good but there is a starkly different tone to both. LOTR is epic, grand, and serious, about a world war, The Hobbit is light and breezy, and about a heist. Though a heist that culminates in a war for the spoils.

The Hobbit Challenge: Read two more chapters. I didn't have much time. Bilbo got the ring.
I noticed a continuity problem. Maybe. Now, as of the time of The Hobbit, it was unknown that this magic ring was in fact a Ring of Power, and it was doubly unknown that it was the Ring of Power, the Master Ring that controlled the others.
But the narrator -- who we will learn in LOTR was none of than Bilbo himself, who wrote the book as "There and Back Again" -- says this about Gollum's ring:
"But who knows how Gollum had come by that present [the Ring], ages ago in the old days when such rings were still at large in the world? Perhaps even the Master who ruled them could not have said."
In another passage, the ring is identified as a "ring of power."
I don't know, I always thought there was a distinction between mere magic rings and the Rings of Power created by Sauron. But this suggests that Bilbo knew this was a ring of power created by Sauron.
Now I don't remember when Bilbo wrote the Hobbit. In the movie, he shows Frodo the book in Rivendell, and I guess he wrote it after he left the Shire. I guess he might have added in the part about the ring being a ring of power created by "the Master" after Gandalf appraised him of his research into the ring.
I never noticed this before. I know Tolkien re-wrote this chapter while he was writing LOTR to make the ring important from the start. And also to make Gollum more sinister and evil, and also to remove the part where Gollum actually offers Bilbo the ring as a "present" -- Bilbo had already found it on his own, but Gollum was wiling to give it away, which obviously is not something the rewritten Gollum would ever do.
But I had no memory of the ring being suggested to be The Ring so early in the tale.

Finish the job, Mr. President!
Melanie Phillips lays out the case for the total destruction of the Iranian government and armed forces. [CBD]

TJM acts like he knows anything about John Wick and screenwriting. It's embarrassing, really.

Podcast: Sefton and CBD talk about how would a peace treaty with Iran work, Democrats defending murderers and rapists, The GOP vs. Dem bench for 2028, composting bodies? And more!

Oh, I forgot to mention this quote from Pete Hegseth, reported by Roger Kimball: "We are sharing the ocean with the Iranian Navy. We're giving them the bottom half."

Batman fires The Batman
Batman is disgusted by the Joachim Phoenix version of Joker
Batman tries to fire Superman
Batman is still workshopping his Bat-Voice

Forgotten 80s Mystery Click: Red Leather Suit and Sweatband Edition
And I was here to please
I'm even on knees
Makin' love to whoever I please
I gotta do it my way
Or no way at all

Tomorrow is March 25th, "Tolkien Reading Day," because March 25th is the day when the Ring is destroyed in the book. I think I'm going to start the Hobbit tomorrow and read all four books this time.
The only bad part of the trilogy are the Frodo/Sam chapters in The Two Towers. They're repetitive, slow, and mostly about the weather and terrain. But most everything else is good. Weirdly, the Frodo-Sam chapters in Return of the King are exciting and action-packed and among the best in the trilogy. (Though the chapters with everyone else in Return of the King get pretty slow again. Mostly people talking about marching towards war, and then marching towards war.)

Sec. Army recognizes ODU Army ROTC cadets for their bravery and sacrifice in private ceremony
[Hat Tip: Diogenes] [CBD]

TJM gives you a brief tour of his movie collection.

Forgotten 80s Mystery Click
One day I'm gonna write a poem in a letter
One day I'm gonna get that faculty together
Remember that everybody has to wait in line
Oh, [Song Title], look out world, oh, you know I've got mine

US decimation of Iran's ICBM forces is due to Space Force's instant detection of launches -- and the launchers' hiding places -- and rapid counter-attack via missiles
AI is doing a lot of the work in analyzing images to find the exact hiding place of the launchers. Counter-strikes are now coming in four hours after a launch, whereas previously it might have taken days for humans to go over the imagery and data.