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« A Moveable Feast: Bush Gets Fat on "Moveable Voters," 52-33 | Main | Update on SwiftVets Rally »
October 30, 2004

Newsweek: Breaking for Bush

A six point lead, 50-44. But that's not the fun part. The fun part is watching hyperliberal Newsweek attempt to claim that "anything less than a nine point lead" is a "statistical tie," and that a six point lead really means nothing with a four point MoE, etc.

Let them coccoon.

The coccoon gets ripped open on Tuesday.

Update: Cranky Neocon previews Newsweeks upcoming Conventional Wisdom Watch, a feature that jumped the shark back in, oh, 1987 or so.

I Still Know What You Did Last Update: Polls and analysis from Secure Liberty.\

Yet Another Teenage Update: Vegas & the electronic markets break for Bush, too.


posted by Ace at 12:55 PM
Comments



Is this a continuationn of the "movable feast" of filet'o fish that has Dubya surging to an Oliver Willis sized 6 point lead?

Posted by: senator philabuster on October 30, 2004 01:04 PM

I am SO looking forward to the wailing and gnashing of teeth that the far looney left will have to endure on November 2nd. It is going to be sweet after 4 years of such hateful diatribes directed at my president.

We will know who wins on Tuesday. I predict we will know for sure either before or after the polls close in Utah.

Posted by: kdeweb on October 30, 2004 01:17 PM

I'd be more inclined to believe that "this is really just a statistical tie" stuff if the numbers weren't so consistently in favor of Bush, albeit in the "tie" margin.

Posted by: Russell Wardlow on October 30, 2004 01:34 PM

kdweb:

your president?

I always thought we was owned by a couple of over guys.
Those don't blog. Those just enjoy 50$+ a barrel for their texas crude that costs 36$ to pump


Posted by: Sam Miller on October 30, 2004 01:40 PM

There was some great analysis of how to combine the polls and do some meta-analysis but it was really complicated with lots of math and stuff. Long story short: if the polls say pretty much the same thing the margin of error trends toward zero. Then add in the anti-Bush bias and presto--comin' home to pappa.

But don't tell Eleanor Clift about the Newsweek poll. That vein on her neck *will* explode if you do. And that's not cowbell worthy.

Posted by: Birkel on October 30, 2004 01:44 PM

Well, Sam, the reason you thought that is because some moron on DU said so and you believed it.

By the way, the dollar sign goes before the number, not after it.

Posted by: zetetic on October 30, 2004 01:47 PM

How could this possibly be a Kimless moment?

Traditions mean something, man!

Posted by: blaster on October 30, 2004 01:51 PM

screw all these polls! just vote!

Posted by: atomic_amish on October 30, 2004 01:51 PM

Newsweak could not believe how high Bush is polling so they did an arbitrary knockdown of Bush’s numbers. Bush will win by 11 points.

Posted by: on October 30, 2004 01:58 PM

Sweeeeet!

Posted by: Scout on October 30, 2004 02:20 PM

Stay on Target!

Posted by: Iblis on October 30, 2004 02:31 PM

Iowa Electronic Market and Tradesports can show the sentiment amongst two types of gamblers, those investing in stock and those who enjoy a good wager. Not sure how reliable those sectors are when applied to the US voting set.
Fair has a track record with a margin-of-error of 2.4%. Move-the-Rock pushes the Fair forecast. Let's see how his forecast works this time.

Posted by: Tod Resnick on October 30, 2004 03:52 PM

I'm simultaneously loving and hating this.

Loving that the polls are so consistently showing a trend towards Bush owning Tuesday night.

Hating the feeling that perhaps such growing confidence in a Bush victory might lead to complacency and people staying home because they think it's in the bag. 2000 was only a 527 vote difference after all.

Agggh. This waiting for Tuesday is excruciating.

Posted by: Rob on October 30, 2004 05:35 PM

Thanks to early voting laws in Florida, I voted back on October 21st. I'm feeling a little like I've taken an addiction-suppression drug. I still need the fix, but it sure takes the edge off.

Posted by: The Black Republican on October 30, 2004 08:20 PM

I agree with Rob & atomic_amish. Don't trust the polls, and don't let them cause complacency. With all the left has tried to pull the last 4 years and especially this one, I wouldn't put it past them to float false slightly pro-Bush polls to inspire demos and create complacency in Bush supporters.

We don't just need to win ... we need to win by enough to overcome the "dead" vote, (Rember the polls don't include dead people, and other voter fraud that tends to swing left.) and as much as possible, neuter the attempts to contest close races

Posted by: Chuck on October 31, 2004 06:10 AM

BTW Ace, thanks very much for the link!

Posted by: Gordon on October 31, 2004 03:34 PM
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@JustineBateman

Decompressing from walking on eggshells for the past four years.

I have found the last four years to be an almost intolerable period. A very un-American period in that any questioning, any opinions, any likes or dislikes were held up to a very limited list of "permitted positions" in order to assess acceptability. 2/

I've never in my life known that to be an American environment. It's an environment I have encountered in smaller groupings (a church, a private club,a clique), but never before as a national blanket. It has been suffocating. Common sense was discarded, intellectual discussion was demonized. Only "permitted position" behavior and speech was "allowed." Complete intolerance became almost a religion and one's professional and social life was threatened almost constantly. Those that spoke otherwise were ruined as a warning to others.

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