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October 15, 2004
Bush Up By Four Points According to... Zogby?!48-44. Inside the MoE, of course. Still-- Zogby? I would link the blog from which I picked up this gem, but, alas, the blog in question defends transparent plays for the homophobic vote and thus conscience compels me to shun him.
posted by Ace at 01:51 PM
CommentsActually, Zogby's tracking poll today (with Nader) shows Bush with a 4-point lead! http://realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_hth.html Posted by: Cynical Nation on October 15, 2004 01:54 PM
Sorry, wrong link. Try this one. Posted by: Cynical Nation on October 15, 2004 01:56 PM
Dammit, I'll get it right yet! Ace, feel free to edit these. There!! Posted by: Cynical Nation on October 15, 2004 01:57 PM
I agree that 48-46 is 2%, but all the Zogby numbers I've seen for 10/14 show 48-44 Bush-Kerry. That'd be, um, let's see, yup +4%. Hope it gets bigger, too! Posted by: duh on October 15, 2004 02:28 PM
Ace, this is random and has nothing to do with this post, but just curious if you heard they're making Miami Vice into a movie. Michael Mann writing/directing and Jamie Foxx as Tubbs... couldn't find any casting info for Crockett. Just a heads up if you haven't heard. Posted by: Chad on October 15, 2004 02:45 PM
Yes, actually, several posters pointed that out. Posted by: ace on October 15, 2004 02:46 PM
While you are in the update mode, note that 4 is OUTSIDE the MoE (2.9). Yeah, I know you'll grumble a little at all the work, but inside, you'll be singing. Posted by: Phil on October 15, 2004 03:11 PM
The most recent thought is that Zogby (the liberal pollster) is cooking the books in order to make it look like bush is ahead, if only to draw out democrats to vote in larger numbers. //removes tinfoil hat Not sure I buy it - this guy has no vested interest in either candidate, and his whole reputation could be shot to shit with a CBS-like move like that. However, all it takes is one pro-bush insider to catch whiff of something like that an *poof* there goes a credibility bubble. Food for thought. Posted by: fat kid on October 15, 2004 03:11 PM
Yeah, I know you'll grumble a little at all the work, but inside, you'll be singing. But the MoE is for each candidate. To find the MoE for the spread, double the MoE. Posted by: ace on October 15, 2004 03:12 PM
Actually, the MOE for the difference between two samples in NOT double the MOE of the individual samples. I don't have the formula on me, but a rule of thumb (hat tip, American Statistical Society)is to multiply the MOE of one sample by 1.7. Hence, the MOE for the delta between the two samples is approximately 4.9%. I found a good primer by the ASA at: http://www.amstat.org/sections/srms/brochures/margin.pdf distributed intelligence - a beautiful thing Posted by: David on October 15, 2004 04:51 PM
Don't forget the weekend effect in 3-day tracking polls. Every Sunday, Monday and Tuesday poll will reflect the over-polling of Dems on weekends. Wednesday, Thursday and Friday will always reflect more honest polling. Project for people: Go review the swings in Rasmussen. The weekend effect is obvious. And Ace, "several posters" have mentioned it. Can a brotha get a shout out? Posted by: Birkel on October 15, 2004 05:17 PM
The above last question was a joke, in case it wasn't obvious. Thanks for all the previous shout outs. Posted by: Birkel on October 15, 2004 05:18 PM
Why is everyone so negative on POE ?? Why couldnt Bush's lead be 8 pts.. Hmmm??? or split the difference and say 6 pts. Why should we assume all errors will benefit Kerry?? Just a thought. Posted by: JIm on October 15, 2004 08:15 PM
What we are doing when we look at margin of error is saying that there is a 95% chance the true difference is the measured difference +/- MOE. The 95% is the convention that scientists use, but it is essentially arbitrary. In ballpark terms, there is probably a 90% chance that the Zogby poll measures a true lead for Bush over Kerry. For non-scientists, them's pretty good odds. The big problem with the polls, of course, is not MOE but methodology. Does their sample represent a true random sample of teh electorate that will vote on election day? If it doesn't then the MOE doesn't really mean a damn thing. Posted by: David on October 16, 2004 01:20 AM
Posted by: poker me up on December 29, 2004 02:37 PM
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What? Skeleton of the most famous Musketeer, D'Artagnan, possibly discovered in Dutch church closet.
Dumas picked four names of real musketeers out of a history book, D'Artagnan, Athos, Aramis, and Porthos. So there was an actual D'Artagnan, though he made most of the story up. (Or, you know, all of it.)* Charles de Batz de Castelmore, known as d'Artagnan, the famous musketeer of Kings Louis XIII and Louis XIV, spent his life in the service of the French crown. A lot of Dumas's stories are based on bits of real history. The plot of the >Three Musketeers, about trying to recover lost diamonds from the queen's necklace, was cribbed from the then-almost-contemporaneous Affair of the Queen's Necklace. And the Man in the Iron Mask is based on real accounts of a prisoner forced to wear a mask (though I think it was a velvet mask). * Oh, I should mention, Dumas says all this, about finding the names in an old book, in the prologue to his novel. But authors lie a lot. They frequently present fictions as based on historic fact. The twist is, he was actually telling the truth here. At least about these four musketeers having actually existed and served under Louis XIV. Fun fact: You know the beginning of A Fistful of Dollars where the local gunslingers make fun of Clint Eastwood's donkey and Eastwood demands they apologize to the donkey? That's lifted from The Three Musketeers. Rochefort mocks D'Artagnan's old, brokedown farm horse and D'Artagnan is incensed.
A commenter asked which should be read first, The Hobbit of LOTR?
Easy, no question -- read The Hobbit first. It's actually the start of the story and comes first chronologically. It sets up some major characters and major pieces in play in LOTR. Also, the Hobbit is Beginner-Friendly, which LOTR isn't. The Hobbit really is a delightful book, and a fast read. It's chatty, it's casual, it's exciting, and it's funny. In that dry cheeky British humor way. I love that the narrator is constantly making little asides and commentary, like he's just sitting next to you telling you this story as it occurs to him. LOTR is a very long story. Fifteen hundred pages or so. The Hobbit is relatively short and very punchy and easy to read. If you don't like The Hobbit, you can skip out on LOTR. If you do like it, you'll be primed to read LOTR. Oh, I should say: The Hobbit is written as if it's for children, but one of those smart children's stories that are also for adults. Don't worry, there's also real fighting and violence and horror in it, too. LOTR is written for adults. (It's said that Tolkien wrote both for his children, but LOTR was written 17 years later, when his children were adults.) Some might not like The Hobbit due to its sometimes frivolous tone. Me, I love it. I find it constantly amusing. Both are really good but there is a starkly different tone to both. LOTR is epic, grand, and serious, about a world war, The Hobbit is light and breezy, and about a heist. Though a heist that culminates in a war for the spoils.
The Hobbit Challenge: Read two more chapters. I didn't have much time. Bilbo got the ring.
I noticed a continuity problem. Maybe. Now, as of the time of The Hobbit, it was unknown that this magic ring was in fact a Ring of Power, and it was doubly unknown that it was the Ring of Power, the Master Ring that controlled the others. But the narrator -- who we will learn in LOTR was none of than Bilbo himself, who wrote the book as "There and Back Again" -- says this about Gollum's ring: "But who knows how Gollum had come by that present [the Ring], ages ago in the old days when such rings were still at large in the world? Perhaps even the Master who ruled them could not have said." In another passage, the ring is identified as a "ring of power." I don't know, I always thought there was a distinction between mere magic rings and the Rings of Power created by Sauron. But this suggests that Bilbo knew this was a ring of power created by Sauron. Now I don't remember when Bilbo wrote the Hobbit. In the movie, he shows Frodo the book in Rivendell, and I guess he wrote it after he left the Shire. I guess he might have added in the part about the ring being a ring of power created by "the Master" after Gandalf appraised him of his research into the ring. I never noticed this before. I know Tolkien re-wrote this chapter while he was writing LOTR to make the ring important from the start. And also to make Gollum more sinister and evil, and also to remove the part where Gollum actually offers Bilbo the ring as a "present" -- Bilbo had already found it on his own, but Gollum was wiling to give it away, which obviously is not something the rewritten Gollum would ever do. But I had no memory of the ring being suggested to be The Ring so early in the tale.
Finish the job, Mr. President!
Melanie Phillips lays out the case for the total destruction of the Iranian government and armed forces. [CBD]
Oh, I forgot to mention this quote from Pete Hegseth, reported by Roger Kimball: "We are sharing the ocean with the Iranian Navy. We're giving them the bottom half."
Batman fires The Batman
Batman is disgusted by the Joachim Phoenix version of Joker Batman tries to fire Superman Batman is still workshopping his Bat-Voice
Forgotten 80s Mystery Click: Red Leather Suit and Sweatband Edition
And I was here to please I'm even on knees Makin' love to whoever I please I gotta do it my way Or no way at all
Tomorrow is March 25th, "Tolkien Reading Day," because March 25th is the day when the Ring is destroyed in the book. I think I'm going to start the Hobbit tomorrow and read all four books this time.
The only bad part of the trilogy are the Frodo/Sam chapters in The Two Towers. They're repetitive, slow, and mostly about the weather and terrain. But most everything else is good. Weirdly, the Frodo-Sam chapters in Return of the King are exciting and action-packed and among the best in the trilogy. (Though the chapters with everyone else in Return of the King get pretty slow again. Mostly people talking about marching towards war, and then marching towards war.)
Sec. Army recognizes ODU Army ROTC cadets for their bravery and sacrifice in private ceremony
[Hat Tip: Diogenes] [CBD]
Forgotten 80s Mystery Click
One day I'm gonna write a poem in a letter One day I'm gonna get that faculty together Remember that everybody has to wait in line Oh, [Song Title], look out world, oh, you know I've got mine
US decimation of Iran's ICBM forces is due to Space Force's instant detection of launches -- and the launchers' hiding places -- and rapid counter-attack via missiles
AI is doing a lot of the work in analyzing images to find the exact hiding place of the launchers. Counter-strikes are now coming in four hours after a launch, whereas previously it might have taken days for humans to go over the imagery and data.
Robert Mueller, Former Special Counsel Who Probed Trump, Dies
“robert mueller just died,” trump wrote in a truth social post on march 21. “good, i’m glad he’s dead. he can no longer hurt innocent people! president donald j. trump.”
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Canada and the UK are neck and neck in the race to become the first western country to fall to Islam [CBD] Recent Comments
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