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« Tom Daschle May Have Forfeited His South Dakota Domicile, and Therefore His Right to Serve as or Run for Senator | Main | Ministry of Silly Links »
October 15, 2004

Bush Up By Four Points According to... Zogby?!

48-44. Inside the MoE, of course.

Still-- Zogby?

I would link the blog from which I picked up this gem, but, alas, the blog in question defends transparent plays for the homophobic vote and thus conscience compels me to shun him.


Update! Okay, so I don't know how to read a simple chart. It's FOUR points, not two. Thanks to Cynical Nation and the appropriately named "duh" for pointing that out to me.


posted by Ace at 01:51 PM
Comments



Actually, Zogby's tracking poll today (with Nader) shows Bush with a 4-point lead!

http://realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_hth.html

Posted by: Cynical Nation on October 15, 2004 01:54 PM

Sorry, wrong link. Try this one.

Posted by: Cynical Nation on October 15, 2004 01:56 PM

Dammit, I'll get it right yet! Ace, feel free to edit these.

There!!
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews886.html

Posted by: Cynical Nation on October 15, 2004 01:57 PM

I agree that 48-46 is 2%, but all the Zogby numbers I've seen for 10/14 show 48-44 Bush-Kerry. That'd be, um, let's see, yup +4%. Hope it gets bigger, too!

Posted by: duh on October 15, 2004 02:28 PM

Ace, this is random and has nothing to do with this post, but just curious if you heard they're making Miami Vice into a movie. Michael Mann writing/directing and Jamie Foxx as Tubbs... couldn't find any casting info for Crockett. Just a heads up if you haven't heard.

Posted by: Chad on October 15, 2004 02:45 PM

Yes, actually, several posters pointed that out.

Posted by: ace on October 15, 2004 02:46 PM

While you are in the update mode, note that 4 is OUTSIDE the MoE (2.9).

Yeah, I know you'll grumble a little at all the work, but inside, you'll be singing.

Posted by: Phil on October 15, 2004 03:11 PM

The most recent thought is that Zogby (the liberal pollster) is cooking the books in order to make it look like bush is ahead, if only to draw out democrats to vote in larger numbers.

//removes tinfoil hat

Not sure I buy it - this guy has no vested interest in either candidate, and his whole reputation could be shot to shit with a CBS-like move like that. However, all it takes is one pro-bush insider to catch whiff of something like that an *poof* there goes a credibility bubble.

Food for thought.

Posted by: fat kid on October 15, 2004 03:11 PM

Yeah, I know you'll grumble a little at all the work, but inside, you'll be singing.

But the MoE is for each candidate. To find the MoE for the spread, double the MoE.

Posted by: ace on October 15, 2004 03:12 PM

Actually, the MOE for the difference between two samples in NOT double the MOE of the individual samples. I don't have the formula on me, but a rule of thumb (hat tip, American Statistical Society)is to multiply the MOE of one sample by 1.7. Hence, the MOE for the delta between the two samples is approximately 4.9%.

I found a good primer by the ASA at:

http://www.amstat.org/sections/srms/brochures/margin.pdf

distributed intelligence - a beautiful thing

Posted by: David on October 15, 2004 04:51 PM

Don't forget the weekend effect in 3-day tracking polls. Every Sunday, Monday and Tuesday poll will reflect the over-polling of Dems on weekends.

Wednesday, Thursday and Friday will always reflect more honest polling.

Project for people: Go review the swings in Rasmussen. The weekend effect is obvious.

And Ace, "several posters" have mentioned it. Can a brotha get a shout out?

Posted by: Birkel on October 15, 2004 05:17 PM

The above last question was a joke, in case it wasn't obvious.

Thanks for all the previous shout outs.

Posted by: Birkel on October 15, 2004 05:18 PM

Why is everyone so negative on POE ?? Why couldnt Bush's lead be 8 pts.. Hmmm??? or split the difference and say 6 pts. Why should we assume all errors will benefit Kerry?? Just a thought.

Posted by: JIm on October 15, 2004 08:15 PM

What we are doing when we look at margin of error is saying that there is a 95% chance the true difference is the measured difference +/- MOE. The 95% is the convention that scientists use, but it is essentially arbitrary. In ballpark terms, there is probably a 90% chance that the Zogby poll measures a true lead for Bush over Kerry. For non-scientists, them's pretty good odds.

The big problem with the polls, of course, is not MOE but methodology. Does their sample represent a true random sample of teh electorate that will vote on election day? If it doesn't then the MOE doesn't really mean a damn thing.

Posted by: David on October 16, 2004 01:20 AM
Posted by: poker me up on December 29, 2004 02:37 PM
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