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October 15, 2004
Bush Up By Four Points According to... Zogby?!48-44. Inside the MoE, of course. Still-- Zogby? I would link the blog from which I picked up this gem, but, alas, the blog in question defends transparent plays for the homophobic vote and thus conscience compels me to shun him.
posted by Ace at 01:51 PM
CommentsActually, Zogby's tracking poll today (with Nader) shows Bush with a 4-point lead! http://realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_hth.html Posted by: Cynical Nation on October 15, 2004 01:54 PM
Sorry, wrong link. Try this one. Posted by: Cynical Nation on October 15, 2004 01:56 PM
Dammit, I'll get it right yet! Ace, feel free to edit these. There!! Posted by: Cynical Nation on October 15, 2004 01:57 PM
I agree that 48-46 is 2%, but all the Zogby numbers I've seen for 10/14 show 48-44 Bush-Kerry. That'd be, um, let's see, yup +4%. Hope it gets bigger, too! Posted by: duh on October 15, 2004 02:28 PM
Ace, this is random and has nothing to do with this post, but just curious if you heard they're making Miami Vice into a movie. Michael Mann writing/directing and Jamie Foxx as Tubbs... couldn't find any casting info for Crockett. Just a heads up if you haven't heard. Posted by: Chad on October 15, 2004 02:45 PM
Yes, actually, several posters pointed that out. Posted by: ace on October 15, 2004 02:46 PM
While you are in the update mode, note that 4 is OUTSIDE the MoE (2.9). Yeah, I know you'll grumble a little at all the work, but inside, you'll be singing. Posted by: Phil on October 15, 2004 03:11 PM
The most recent thought is that Zogby (the liberal pollster) is cooking the books in order to make it look like bush is ahead, if only to draw out democrats to vote in larger numbers. //removes tinfoil hat Not sure I buy it - this guy has no vested interest in either candidate, and his whole reputation could be shot to shit with a CBS-like move like that. However, all it takes is one pro-bush insider to catch whiff of something like that an *poof* there goes a credibility bubble. Food for thought. Posted by: fat kid on October 15, 2004 03:11 PM
Yeah, I know you'll grumble a little at all the work, but inside, you'll be singing. But the MoE is for each candidate. To find the MoE for the spread, double the MoE. Posted by: ace on October 15, 2004 03:12 PM
Actually, the MOE for the difference between two samples in NOT double the MOE of the individual samples. I don't have the formula on me, but a rule of thumb (hat tip, American Statistical Society)is to multiply the MOE of one sample by 1.7. Hence, the MOE for the delta between the two samples is approximately 4.9%. I found a good primer by the ASA at: http://www.amstat.org/sections/srms/brochures/margin.pdf distributed intelligence - a beautiful thing Posted by: David on October 15, 2004 04:51 PM
Don't forget the weekend effect in 3-day tracking polls. Every Sunday, Monday and Tuesday poll will reflect the over-polling of Dems on weekends. Wednesday, Thursday and Friday will always reflect more honest polling. Project for people: Go review the swings in Rasmussen. The weekend effect is obvious. And Ace, "several posters" have mentioned it. Can a brotha get a shout out? Posted by: Birkel on October 15, 2004 05:17 PM
The above last question was a joke, in case it wasn't obvious. Thanks for all the previous shout outs. Posted by: Birkel on October 15, 2004 05:18 PM
Why is everyone so negative on POE ?? Why couldnt Bush's lead be 8 pts.. Hmmm??? or split the difference and say 6 pts. Why should we assume all errors will benefit Kerry?? Just a thought. Posted by: JIm on October 15, 2004 08:15 PM
What we are doing when we look at margin of error is saying that there is a 95% chance the true difference is the measured difference +/- MOE. The 95% is the convention that scientists use, but it is essentially arbitrary. In ballpark terms, there is probably a 90% chance that the Zogby poll measures a true lead for Bush over Kerry. For non-scientists, them's pretty good odds. The big problem with the polls, of course, is not MOE but methodology. Does their sample represent a true random sample of teh electorate that will vote on election day? If it doesn't then the MOE doesn't really mean a damn thing. Posted by: David on October 16, 2004 01:20 AM
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Few people remember that Norm MacDonald began his career as a ventriloquist
MacDonald's old partner Adam Egot revealed that MacDonald repurposed a bit with one of his ventriloquist dolls -- that he was a "bad guy" who "didn't believe the Holocaust happened" -- for the Norm MacDonald show, in which he claimed Egot didn't believe in the Holocaust. Funniest thing I've read about the Virginia mess. Back when they were hustling the referendum through the assembly both Senators, Warner and Kaine, advised them to go slow and play by the rules. Louise Lucas said she respected them but didn't need advice from the "cuck chair" in the corner. The gerrymandering was overturned and Louise is heading for the big house. Edward G. Robinson voice "where's your cuck now?" I posted his post on twitter and it's gotten 25K views so far. Thanks, Smell the Glove Chris
Forgotten 80s Mystery Click That Sums Up the Democrat Communist Party Today
Something is wrong as I hold you near Somebody else holds your heart, yeah You turn to me with your icy tears And then it's raining, feels like it's raining
"It's f**king f**ked."
-- reportedly a genuine comment offered by a "senior Labour source" Correction: I wrote that Labour is losing 88% (now 87%) of the seats it is "defending." I think that's wrong. The right way to say it is the seats they are contesting -- that is, they don't necessarily already hold these seats, but they have put up a candidate to run for the seat. It's still very bad but not as bad as losing 87% of the seats they already held. Basil the Great
"The end of the two party system in the UK" as first the Fake Conservatives and now Labour chooses political suicide rather than simply STOPPING THE INVASION
Incidentally, the only reason this didn't already happen in the US is because of the Very Bad Orange Man (who is right on 85% of all policy calls and extremely, existentially right on 15% of them)
No political party that is NOT also a doomsday religious cult would EVER choose a cataclysmic loss -- and possible extinction as a party -- to support a toxically unpopular favoritism of NON-CITIZEN ILLEGAL MIGRANTS over actual citizen voters.
Only a cult does this.
Now they've lost 84%.
Annunziata Rees-Mogg Update: They've now lost 88% of the seats they're defending. As I mentioned earlier, I think I heard that London will not bail them out, as many of those Labour seats will probably flip to "Muslim Independent" or Green. Detroit's 5am vote will not save them.
Yup, Labour is losing 80% of its seats...
The British Patriot Wow, up to 1700-2100 seats. It's not incredible that this is happening. It's incredible that the Davos crowd is so absolutely determined to privilege Muslim "migrants" over the actual native population who elects them, no matter how loudly the natives scream that they want to be prioritized, that they will gladly self-extinguish as a party rather than simply representing the interests of their own voters. Astonishing. Remember, when they call other people "cultists" -- they are the ones so imprisoned in their social reinforcement and discipline bubbles that they will choose political death rather than dare upset the Karen Enforcement Officers of their cult. Update: Now they've lost 83% of the seats they were defending. (((Dan Hodges))) Nick Lowles
STARMERGEDDON: In early returns, Reform gains 135 seats, Labour loses 90, the Fake Conservatives lose 36 (and I didn't even know they could fall any further), the Lib Dems lose 4, and the Greens gain 6. Note that the only other party gaining seats is the Greens and they're only gaining a handful of seats.
Update: Reform now up 145, Labour down 98. Labour projected to lose Wales -- where they've ruled for 27 years. Fulton County Georgia just discovered 400 boxes of ballots for Labour Update: REF +156, LAB -107, CON -45 Brutal: In four out of five council seats where Labour is defending, they've lost. 80%. I'm sure it's not this simple, but Reform is straight taking Labour's and the "Conservatives'" seats. They've lost almost exactly what Reform gained. If understand this right (and warning, I probably don't), all of London's council seats are up for election, and Labour might lose hugely there, as their old voters abandon them for Reform, Muslim Indenpendents, and the Greens. REF +190, LAB -134, CON -56.
Updates on the Labour collapse in council elections -- which wags are calling #Starmergeddon -- from Beege Welborne. There are about 5000 seats up for grabs, Labour is expected to lose 1,800, Reform will probably gain 1,580, up from... zero. So this would be more than that.
People claim that while Labour has adopted the Sharia Agenda to appeal to the million Muslims it allowed to migrate to the country, those voters are ditching Labour to vote for the Muslim Independent Party or the Greens. Delicious. This shadenfreude is going straight to my thighs. Oh, and if Starmer loses about as badly as expected, Labour will toss him out of a window Braveheart style and replace him. He will announce he is resigning to spend more time with his Gay Ukrainian Male Prostitutes.
Media bias and senationalism are as old as, well, the media:
![]() That was written by Denny O'Neill and illustrated by, get this, Frank Miller. Editor to the Stars Jim Shooter was in charge at the time. I always thought the gag was original to the comic book, but in fact the "Threat or Menace" headline was a satirical joke about media bias and sensationalism for a long while. The Harvard Lampoon used it in a parody of Life magazine: "Flying Saucers: Threat or Menace?"
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