The Morning Rant: AI-Driven Redistricting?

Gee, has anyone noticed that federal legislative districts are in the news? Well, we have been screwing with them for the last 184 years, when The Apportionment Act of 1842 was passed. Some states were still electing at-large representatives, some states had multiple member districts, and it was a bit of a mess. Some states continued their wayward ways and there were other apportionment acts passed.

Oh...wait! Elbridge Gerry (of Gerrymander fame!) was screwing with them in 1812, and I am sure there were manipulations before then. The real issue is that there are no laws governing the creation of legislative districts that can rein in the base instincts of politicians. Partisan manipulation of districts has been found by the courts to be permissible, and that has overwhelmed the demands of "compactness," and maintaining political subdivisions like counties, cities, and neighborhoods within rational districts.

"Compactness?" That's a joke. Look at dozens of districts across America and the contortions the mapmakers went through to create, preserve, or destroy particular districts for partisan gain. Hell, the entirety of New England has zero members of the House of Representatives. That is insulting to our republican form of government, and even to our nonexistent but sound-bite-creating "democracy!"

So how can it be fixed, and what would it look like if it were?

Enter AI, which makes the creation of legislative maps a relatively easy process. It is by no means perfect, because the various systems are nowhere near intelligent enough to do what is requested. For instance, it took several iterations to explain to ChatGPT that Wyoming has only one legislative district, it is Republican, and Colorado doesn't get to snake one of theirs into Wyoming! It's actually an excellent way to see the many shortcomings of AI, and how far it needs to go. To be fair, my version of ChatGPT does not have access to the some of the data, like census blocks, and some of the more sophisticated GIS.

Here is a map that has some interesting restrictions. I began with rules that districts must emanate from the center of major cities, must respect "compactness," and city and county borders. I continued to tweak it, reminding the AI over and over that it must obey the specified rules. Some of the mistakes were marvelous! Pittsburgh was solidly Republican for a few iterations, and the Florida panhandle was Democrat. Yeah...AI is not smart.

This was based on 2024 voting patterns, and is probably a bit optimistic, but it shows a solid Republican majority, even with what seems to be under-representation in the major cities. The breakdown by state is illuminating, in part because smaller states are difficult to balance politically, but the larger states are also hamstrung by their large Democrat majorities in the cities.

This is an intellectual exercise, and will never be enacted by any state legislature. There is simply too much at stake. But it does expose the difficulties of creating reasonable legislative districts that represent the people, rather than the entrenched interests in the various statehouses.

[Crossposted at CutJibNewsletter and X/Twitter]. If you folks who are on X/Twitter would follow us it would be much appreciated!

posted by CBD at 10:58 AM

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