If George Bush loses to J F'n Kerry, then the ABB crowd was right: Bush is a total idiot.

Alan Keyes could beat John Kerry, especially in light of Cambodia-gate.

I think all "predictions" are pretty much worthless because of the great variable: another terrorist attack. Because the effect on the electorate of an explosion in, for example, downtown Las Vegas (man am I glad I moved here) can easily go either way, the election can go either way.

And I disagree with Mark that Cambodia-gate is so devastating that Bush losing means he's an idiot. Bush has a chance - a very strong chance - but the people who are voting for Kerry simply do not care about Cambodia. They don't care what the Swift Boat Veterans have to say. They aren't interested in economic numbers. They aren't swayed by stories of heroism of success in Iraq. They don't care what Bush v. Gore actually says.

It's all about the mantra - Anybody But Bush.

Incidentally, I disagree with Aaron Burr's conclusion that Bush is committed to the high road. I think he and his advisers know how to play in the mud. And I think Bush is basically biding his time to maximize the effectiveness of the anti-Kerry wing of his campaign. Just keep feeding Kerry that rope...

Sobek, I concur, however as always, elections come down to swing voters. Just gotta nail your base first.

Sobek, the Bush-haters do not constitute 50%+ of the electorate. I doubt even 40%. The Bush-haters would never vote Republican in the first place. This election will come down to whether the Bush campaign can connect with swing voters and counteract the incredible media bias. It won't take much since Kerry is such a weak candidate.

Marks says, "... the Bush-haters do not constitute 50%+ of the electorate."

I completely agree, but there is an important distinction between "electorate" (i.e. the voting-age public in general) and people who are actually going to get out there and vote.

"The Bush-haters would never vote Republican in the first place."

Some would have, pre-9/11, but there are also avowed liberals who are voting Bush on the security issue alone (celebrity e.g. Dennis Miller). But I suspect that's a small number, and I think you're basically right.

"This election will come down to whether the Bush campaign can connect with swing voters..."

As is true in every campaign.

"...and counteract the incredible media bias."

Media bias is a reality - I will grant you that. And it is incredible. And it is probably more incredible now than it ever has been before (NOTE: I haven't been interested in politics long enough to speak from personal experience, so I rely on other commentators who note the unusually tense political atmosphere).

But there is something starkly real about a terrorist attack that media bias cannot cut through. Granted, the NYT might report something like "Bush Fails to Prevent Attack on Las Vegas - SobekPundit Turned into Charcoal" - but the response, I think, will not be colored much by the media so much as by intensely personal reactions. Either people will say, "Hey, the War on Terror didn't end with Afghanistan and Iraq. I really need to get behind this administration!" or else they will say, "What was the point of all that war in Iraq and Afghanistan if it didn't even stop another attack? I really need to vote Bush out!"

And I think the swing voters will reflect this phenomenon most starkly. I think we can predict how ABB people will react. I think we can predict how Bush-supporting conservatives will react. It's the swing voters, or the marginally liberal and marginally conservative voters, whose attitudes are most likely to change in the face of another attack (or else a highly publicized prevention).

Sobek:

Not sure we disagree about much.

If Bush loses it will be because of media bias. Ray Fair's econometric model, which has predicted very well in the past, has Bush in a landslide, and that's assuming we are not at war. If you assume we are at war, his model would predict 60%+ for GW.

This presidential election will be the liars' (mainstream media)last hurrah hopefully. Think of where blogging may be in another 4 years...The media is the only reason Kerry is in this thing, but he is just too much of a dork to be elected. Swing voters don't like dorks.

"Not sure we disagree about much."

I disagree.

"The media is the only reason Kerry is in this thing, but he is just too much of a dork to be elected."

Okay, I definitely can't disagree with you about that.

In Aaron's third point, he says "Bush intends to be most un-savage in return.", having laid out truth in the two points above it.

Looking in the last year's rear-view mirror, that's clearly true. If it remains true, then he doesn't deserve re-election. Remember, though - he was, during 41's campaign, the velvet fist in the iron glove, and can run a mean race. Perhaps he'll do so again, eventually, to the mewling and caterwauling of those on the left who don't see the hack-minded untruth of their many claims against him and will attempt to simply shout down any truth he tries to get in front of the American people.

I find it absurd that so many of the slings and arrows of the past year have been met with the other cheek by the Republicans. If, for instance, Bush had listened to McCain's fuck-headed demand that he disavow the Swift Boat Vets, I'd have tuned out on politics for the rest of the year. There's a limit to the benefits of being nice and attempting to argue the issues like adults, when the majority of the left feels uncompelled to do so.

The gloves need to come off, soon, or Aaron's guess will be correct.

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