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June 23, 2004

Ask Not For Whom the Cowbell Tolls; It Tolls for John Kerry

The booming economy is forcing Democrats to attempt to better balance their message between "specious claims" and "total fucking bullshit":

...Democrats are edging away from their charges that President Bush is presiding over a "jobless recovery," which has been a staple of their campaign rhetoric. That argument is giving way to the line of attack that working America is suffering a "middle-class squeeze."

Certainly the new version of the economic debate is harder for Democrats to win. Voters are less likely to turn out an incumbent if they see the economy broadly improving, even if they still have some specific pocketbook complaints.

The changed terrain increasingly has Bush advisers comparing their candidate to Bill Clinton, a politician they're usually loath to invoke. Mr. Clinton launched his 1996 re-election campaign amid doubts about the strength of the economy, but by that November, voters were widely persuaded a solid boom was under way.

The Kerry strategy "is similar to what Bob Dole tried to do in 1996," says Bush campaign strategist Matthew Dowd, referring to Mr. Clinton's Republican challenger. "At first Dole thought he was going to run on the economy, but when it started turning strong, he switched his message to 'middle-class squeeze.' " By November, Mr. Dole was left to wonder on the stump, "where's the outrage?" as he pulled just 41% of the vote.

...

The current reality is a mixed picture. Forecasters expect the economy to grow by 4.7% this year, according to a survey by Blue Chip Economic Indicators, the fastest pace since Ronald Reagan won re-election in a landslide in 1984. Employers have created 1.2 million jobs since August, and the unemployment rate is 5.6%, down from a peak during Mr. Bush's term, last year, of 6.3%.

...

Yesterday, a statistical duel broke out between the two campaigns, with Bush aides releasing a two-page "policy memo" comparing the U.S. economy in 1996 and 2004, purporting to show that conditions were about as good as they were during Mr. Clinton's re-election bid. The list showed numbers like short-term job growth about comparable, while the Bush era registered more money spent at restaurants, per capita, and more passengers taking cruises. Four hours later, the Kerry campaign shot back with its own data page accusing their rivals of "misleading statistics" and slower wage growth and faster tuition growth under Mr. Bush than Mr. Clinton.

A USAToday editorial, meanwhile, calls "shenanigans" on Kerry's "Middle-Class Misery Index":

Kerry's downbeat economic talk may be inevitable for a candidate challenging an incumbent's record in the wake of a recession. But as the economy blooms, his index's credibility is wilting...

By talking down the economy, Kerry may hope to pick up votes in economically struggling states where the November election may be decided. But in doing so, he risks sounding out of touch with millions of Americans who see signs of an improving economy — and want a president with a sunnier outlook. The recent death of former president Ronald Reagan recalls just how powerful an optimistic message can be.

Exaggerating the nation's economic misery is not wise policy or politics. The nation is looking for an upbeat problem-solver, not a gloomy naysayer.

And a tangible political upshot to all this is Kerry's frighteningly small lead over Bush in New Jersey, 46-40, despite Al Gore's 16 point margin in 2000. Furthermore 54% of New Jerseyans think the Iraq War was wrong. So why isn't Kerry doing better in New Jersey?

Perhaps it has something to do with the fact that New Jersey is one of the states doing best under The Bush Boom.

New Jersey could be a leading indicator of what the rest of the nation will be feeling come November. And that doesn't bode well for John Kerry.

Here's a small factory-refurbished cowbell I was able to get at a discount price:

Update: This guy's worth reading, too:

Forgive me while I leak information vital to our national security: The economy is kicking butt.

I assume this must be closely guarded information because you have to go deep undercover to find it in The New York Times or The Washington Post.

posted by Ace at 04:18 PM

Comments

Football ain't never gonna be played the same way again, the way these people move the goalposts on a daily basis.

Posted by: Brian B on June 23, 2004 04:49 PM

I think Kerry is thisclose to falling back on Al Gore-style class warfare. When all else fails, just run on the simple, "I'll take THEIR money away and give it to you" campaign.

At least it's honest.

Posted by: Scout on June 23, 2004 05:00 PM

Wish I still had the article, but NJ just raised taxes on "millionaires" (which they define as people earning more than $500,000/year - go figure). NJ now ranks as one of the highest taxing states. Also, despite the "shitty economy", they just upped their annual budget to the tune of approximately $13 BILLION. I'll go back and try to find that article, either way, maybe Jersey-ites are a getting sick of their Dem leadership.

Posted by: fat kid on June 24, 2004 02:01 PM

Fat Kid,

Thanks for the info. I read that stuff, too, but thanks for reminding me. McGreevey really is taxing until their eyeballs bleed.

Posted by: Smitty on June 24, 2004 02:36 PM

And, by the way, I'll be adding you to my blogroll shortly.

I just keep delaying it because I have a bunch of people I need to add, and it's really such a pain in the ass.

Posted by: Smitty on June 24, 2004 02:47 PM

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TJM talks John Boorman, director of Excalibur

Good rickroll

What? Skeleton of the most famous Musketeer, D'Artagnan, possibly discovered in Dutch church closet.
Dumas picked four names of real musketeers out of a history book, D'Artagnan, Athos, Aramis, and Porthos. So there was an actual D'Artagnan, though he made most of the story up. (Or, you know, all of it.)*

Charles de Batz de Castelmore, known as d'Artagnan, the famous musketeer of Kings Louis XIII and Louis XIV, spent his life in the service of the French crown.
The Gascon nobleman inspired Alexandre Dumas's hero in "The Three Musketeers" in the 19th century, a character now known worldwide thanks to the novel and numerous film adaptations.
D'Artagnan was killed during the siege of Maastricht in 1673, and there is a statue honoring the musketeer in the city. His final resting place has remained a mystery ever since.

A lot of Dumas's stories are based on bits of real history. The plot of the >Three Musketeers, about trying to recover lost diamonds from the queen's necklace, was cribbed from the then-almost-contemporaneous Affair of the Queen's Necklace. And the Man in the Iron Mask is based on real accounts of a prisoner forced to wear a mask (though I think it was a velvet mask).
* Oh, I should mention, Dumas says all this, about finding the names in an old book, in the prologue to his novel. But authors lie a lot. They frequently present fictions as based on historic fact. The twist is, he was actually telling the truth here. At least about these four musketeers having actually existed and served under Louis XIV.
Fun fact: You know the beginning of A Fistful of Dollars where the local gunslingers make fun of Clint Eastwood's donkey and Eastwood demands they apologize to the donkey? That's lifted from The Three Musketeers. Rochefort mocks D'Artagnan's old, brokedown farm horse and D'Artagnan is incensed.

A commenter asked which should be read first, The Hobbit of LOTR?
Easy, no question -- read The Hobbit first. It's actually the start of the story and comes first chronologically. It sets up some major characters and major pieces in play in LOTR.
Also, the Hobbit is Beginner-Friendly, which LOTR isn't. The Hobbit really is a delightful book, and a fast read. It's chatty, it's casual, it's exciting, and it's funny. In that dry cheeky British humor way. I love that the narrator is constantly making little asides and commentary, like he's just sitting next to you telling you this story as it occurs to him.
LOTR is a very long story. Fifteen hundred pages or so. The Hobbit is relatively short and very punchy and easy to read. If you don't like The Hobbit, you can skip out on LOTR. If you do like it, you'll be primed to read LOTR.
Oh, I should say: The Hobbit is written as if it's for children, but one of those smart children's stories that are also for adults. Don't worry, there's also real fighting and violence and horror in it, too.
LOTR is written for adults. (It's said that Tolkien wrote both for his children, but LOTR was written 17 years later, when his children were adults.) Some might not like The Hobbit due to its sometimes frivolous tone. Me, I love it. I find it constantly amusing. Both are really good but there is a starkly different tone to both. LOTR is epic, grand, and serious, about a world war, The Hobbit is light and breezy, and about a heist. Though a heist that culminates in a war for the spoils.

The Hobbit Challenge: Read two more chapters. I didn't have much time. Bilbo got the ring.
I noticed a continuity problem. Maybe. Now, as of the time of The Hobbit, it was unknown that this magic ring was in fact a Ring of Power, and it was doubly unknown that it was the Ring of Power, the Master Ring that controlled the others.
But the narrator -- who we will learn in LOTR was none of than Bilbo himself, who wrote the book as "There and Back Again" -- says this about Gollum's ring:
"But who knows how Gollum had come by that present [the Ring], ages ago in the old days when such rings were still at large in the world? Perhaps even the Master who ruled them could not have said."
In another passage, the ring is identified as a "ring of power."
I don't know, I always thought there was a distinction between mere magic rings and the Rings of Power created by Sauron. But this suggests that Bilbo knew this was a ring of power created by Sauron.
Now I don't remember when Bilbo wrote the Hobbit. In the movie, he shows Frodo the book in Rivendell, and I guess he wrote it after he left the Shire. I guess he might have added in the part about the ring being a ring of power created by "the Master" after Gandalf appraised him of his research into the ring.
I never noticed this before. I know Tolkien re-wrote this chapter while he was writing LOTR to make the ring important from the start. And also to make Gollum more sinister and evil, and also to remove the part where Gollum actually offers Bilbo the ring as a "present" -- Bilbo had already found it on his own, but Gollum was wiling to give it away, which obviously is not something the rewritten Gollum would ever do.
But I had no memory of the ring being suggested to be The Ring so early in the tale.

Finish the job, Mr. President!
Melanie Phillips lays out the case for the total destruction of the Iranian government and armed forces. [CBD]

TJM acts like he knows anything about John Wick and screenwriting. It's embarrassing, really.

Podcast: Sefton and CBD talk about how would a peace treaty with Iran work, Democrats defending murderers and rapists, The GOP vs. Dem bench for 2028, composting bodies? And more!

Oh, I forgot to mention this quote from Pete Hegseth, reported by Roger Kimball: "We are sharing the ocean with the Iranian Navy. We're giving them the bottom half."

Batman fires The Batman
Batman is disgusted by the Joachim Phoenix version of Joker
Batman tries to fire Superman
Batman is still workshopping his Bat-Voice

Forgotten 80s Mystery Click: Red Leather Suit and Sweatband Edition
And I was here to please
I'm even on knees
Makin' love to whoever I please
I gotta do it my way
Or no way at all

Tomorrow is March 25th, "Tolkien Reading Day," because March 25th is the day when the Ring is destroyed in the book. I think I'm going to start the Hobbit tomorrow and read all four books this time.
The only bad part of the trilogy are the Frodo/Sam chapters in The Two Towers. They're repetitive, slow, and mostly about the weather and terrain. But most everything else is good. Weirdly, the Frodo-Sam chapters in Return of the King are exciting and action-packed and among the best in the trilogy. (Though the chapters with everyone else in Return of the King get pretty slow again. Mostly people talking about marching towards war, and then marching towards war.)

Sec. Army recognizes ODU Army ROTC cadets for their bravery and sacrifice in private ceremony
[Hat Tip: Diogenes] [CBD]

TJM gives you a brief tour of his movie collection.

Forgotten 80s Mystery Click
One day I'm gonna write a poem in a letter
One day I'm gonna get that faculty together
Remember that everybody has to wait in line
Oh, [Song Title], look out world, oh, you know I've got mine

US decimation of Iran's ICBM forces is due to Space Force's instant detection of launches -- and the launchers' hiding places -- and rapid counter-attack via missiles
AI is doing a lot of the work in analyzing images to find the exact hiding place of the launchers. Counter-strikes are now coming in four hours after a launch, whereas previously it might have taken days for humans to go over the imagery and data.

Robert Mueller, Former Special Counsel Who Probed Trump, Dies

“robert mueller just died,” trump wrote in a truth social post on march 21. “good, i’m glad he’s dead. he can no longer hurt innocent people! president donald j. trump.”

TJM has thoughts on Superheros and Iconography

Canadian School Designates Cafeteria And Lunchroom As "No Food Zones" For Ramadan
Canada and the UK are neck and neck in the race to become the first western country to fall to Islam [CBD]

Chuck Norris, Action Icon and 'Walker Texas Ranger' Star, Dies at 86