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February 27, 2005

Paradigm Shift: The Meme Spreads

Just because several pundits choose to write about the same topic in the same week doesn't mean anybody knows what the hell they're talking about.

But... when three influential pundits are all saying virtually the same thing on the same day, it's likely they will at least shape media (and therefore public) perceptions.

David Brooks wrote about the new optimism in geopolitics -- "Why not freedom here?" -- in a must-read column yesterday. (Excerpted at the end of this post if you don't read the Times on general principles.)

Now Thomas Friedman and Michael Barone write essentially the same story: that, whether you wish to give Bush credit or not, the world has changed since the Iraqi elections of 30 January.

Thomas Friedman, realizing he's been beaten to the punch by fellow Timesman Brooks, avoids mention of Kuhnian paradigm shifts and speaks instead of "tipping points":

he other night on ABC's "Nightline," the host, Ted Koppel, posed an intriguing question to Malcolm Gladwell, the social scientist who wrote the path-breaking book "The Tipping Point," which is about how changes in behavior or perception can reach a critical mass and then suddenly create a whole new reality. Mr. Koppel asked: Can you know you are in the middle of a tipping point, or is it only something you can see in retrospect?
...

Mr. Koppel was raising the question because he wanted to explore whether the Iraqi elections marked a tipping point in history. I was on the same show, and in mulling over this question more I think that what's so interesting about the Middle East today is that we're actually witnessing three tipping points at once.

Which he identifies as the Iraqi elections, the Lebanese uprising against Syria, and the possibility of a real Israel-Palestinian peace. After the obligatory and obvious (and word-count padding) disclaimers about how anything can go to hell at any time, he concludes:

Nevertheless, what's happened in the last four weeks is not just important, it's remarkable. And if we can keep all three tipping points tipped, it will be incredible.

Michael Barone also uses the term "tipping point" as a hook (citing, actually, Friedman's appearance on Nightline), noting that minds are changing in a column called, uhhh, Minds Are Changing. He confesses to have been previously over-optimistic about the pace of change in Iraq...

But the spectacle of 8 million Iraqis braving terrorists to vote on January 30 seems to have moved things up to breakneck speed. Evidence abounds. Consider what is happening in Lebanon...
[R]eporting from Beirut last week, [the Washington Post's David Ignatius] wrote movingly of "the movement for political change that has suddenly coalesced in Lebanon and is slowly gathering force elsewhere in the Arab world."

Ignatius interviewed Walid Jumblatt, the Druze leader long a critic of the United States. Jumblatt's words are striking: "It's strange for me to say it, but this process of change has started because of the American invasion of Iraq. I was cynical about Iraq. But when I saw the Iraqi people voting three weeks ago, 8 million of them, it was the start of a new Arab world. The Syrian people, the Egyptian people, all say that something is changing. The Berlin Wall has fallen. We can see it."

...

Or read Claus Christian Malzahn in Der Spiegel. "Maybe the people of Syria, Iraq, or Jordan will get the idea in their heads to free themselves from their oppressive regimes just as the East Germans did," he writes. "Just a thought for Old Europe to chew on: Bush might be right, just like Reagan was."

It is often said that the press is lazy and prone to herd-thinking, simply parroting the received wisdom of the elite urban caste.

And while the media's favorite narrative is the one they've simply repeated ad nauseum for years -- after all, that's the easiest one -- their second-favorite narrative is one of Major Change With Serious Implications.

Perhaps Brooks, Barone, and Friedman will together produce another stampede of media group-think.

And if they do, we shouldn't think necessarily that they're right; they'll just be mindlessly repeating the new buzzwords "Kuhnian paradigm shifts" and "tipping points" as they were previously repeating "quagmire" and "exit strategy" a month ago.

The evidence is still out as to whether we will see a real paradigm shift in world geopolitics; but there is a fair chance of a paradigm shift in media groupthink.

And I wouldn't complain too much about that.

A lazy, soft-headed media is still a lazy, soft-headed media, but it's about time they were soft-headed towards the possibility-- the possibility, mind you-- that freedom works.

Fourth Time a Charm? Actually, the first time, as NRO Corner writer Mark Krikonian wondered Thursday morning if 2005 might not witness a bubble of revolutions not seen since 1848.

posted by Ace at 02:02 AM

Comments

Naah -- this is just a prelude to the 'it was inevitable' narrative they've long tried to pull on us about winning the Cold War.

But we remember Reagan, and will remember Bush.

Posted by: someone on February 27, 2005 03:01 AM

As a corrolary to what "someone" said above, we can expect the "yes, but" crowd to start chiming in any time now. That is, if they haven't already.

Posted by: Sean M. on February 27, 2005 05:46 AM

Freedom is on the march!

I agree we may be witnessing a "tipping poiny"on the GWOT. See my comment at Roger L. Simon's and follow the links to this story:

Titans of the Blogos vs. the Mad Mullahs of Iran

The end is near forthe women hating Mad Mullahs of Iran:

Posted by: on February 27, 2005 05:48 AM

Good post bringing together an emerging meme, Ace. Just one thing:

It's BARONE. ONE "R."

People always get that wrong and I never know why. It's like those people who switch out "lose" and "loose."

Lose shit here, Ace, lose shit.

Posted by: Jeff B. on February 27, 2005 09:17 AM

Posted by: rdbrewer on February 27, 2005 09:26 AM

That was the secret, coded version of:

Grinning
My
Face
Off

Posted by: rdbrewer on February 27, 2005 09:28 AM

I wonder if this freedom "tipping point" will make it into Europe.

Posted by: rdbrewer on February 27, 2005 09:30 AM

The impact on the Democrats and their media should be fascinating.

Some will join Friedman, claiming they were on our side all along. Easy for him to say - he was on both sides all along. Hillary will line up over there.

Others will remain like MoDo, clueless unto dotage, increasingly hysterical about smaller and smaller affronts, until she's convinced that GW Bush is poisoning her 47 cats.

Posted by: lyle on February 27, 2005 10:27 AM

Re "Freedom is on the March!"

Link is bad. Here's the full URL:

http://www.rogerlsimon.com/mt-archives/2005/02/et_tu_hosni.php#c39842

Posted by: Ron Wright on February 27, 2005 10:32 AM

The Europeans, and more particularly the French, seem to only recognize tipping points when they are smacked in the face with them. I think it took the sight of Hitler's armies marching through Paris for the French to finally say to themselves, "You know, I think we might have reached a tipping point here." They are always a day late and a dollar short and that's why no one interested in national survival would be wise to trust their judgment in those matters. They'll only figure out there's a problem during the next crisis after Paris is a smoking ruin.

Posted by: kcom on February 27, 2005 10:44 AM

With all due respect, Mr. Friedman doesn't understand the concept of tipping points. All three of these events are one and the same effect, which in reality, began as soon as the planes hit the twin towers, and the U.S. became actively, physically present in the Mid-east as a force for freedom and democracy.

Posted by: ProfShade on February 27, 2005 11:03 AM

Maybe, just maybe:

Maybe there is a "tipping point" in the MSM.
Maybe they are doing some introspection and seeing that what they have been espousing all along has serious flaws.
Maybe they see some merit in what over half of the American populace believes
. . .

. . . Nah

Posted by: 2klb-o-fun on February 27, 2005 11:41 AM

Ace--

Have you considered the implications of your theory?

You're alleging that there is a groupthink mentality in the MSM.

Which, interestingly enough, is the same mentality astute observers of the internet like Ted Rall and Bill Moyers accuse the right-leaning blogosphere of having. The whole "hive mind talking points" angle.

Well, I for one would be quite pleased if the MSM starts exhibiting the same behavior. Alas, if pointed out to the Bill Moyers of the world, it'll just be yet another instance of conservative domination of the media and/or the MSM pundits' fear of being silenced by BushHitler's Waffen SS.

As to whether the actual subject matter is solid and has any legs, I refer you to Charles Krauthammer's WaPo editorial this week. His new reasons given for the "paradigm shift" between the Israelis and Palestinians are his *old* reasons-- the security fence.

I don't read Friedman much anymore, but has he ever praised the fence? Or does it make Dreamland Tommy cry that Palestinians can't take the bus to Haifa to use Israeli internet cafes to surf Napster?

I'm just curious.

Cheers,
Dave at Garfield Ridge

Posted by: Dave at Garfield Ridge on February 27, 2005 01:08 PM

I think we're about to see a reverse TET offense effect. Since the MSM has always been against the GWOT their constant negitive coverage hasn't had much effect on the hard core supporters of the GWOT. Howerer having the MSM switch from a long standing negitive viewpoint to a more optimastic viewpoint could bring over a large segiment of th middle to being a lot more supportive of the GWOT.

Posted by: Thomas on February 27, 2005 01:19 PM

I'm cynical enough to buy into the scenario in the first comment--within the next six months, some MSM pundit is going to point out that the Middle East was so messed up that things had to change for the better. In this view, Smirky McHitler's Excellent Iraqi Adventure was just a pointless expenditure of blood and treasure to achieve a goal that would have happened anyway if we'd just been more nuanced and invertebrate and generally European.

In another Cold War parallel, the collapse of Communism didn't magically solve the problems of the old Soviet bloc. I'm hoping our policy in the new Middle East will be a little better thought out.

Posted by: utron on February 27, 2005 02:47 PM

You might even say freedom is on the march, so to speak.

Posted by: TallDave on February 27, 2005 04:49 PM

Eeek. The MSM has been so damned lousy at recognizing and interpreting geopolitical trends.

I think I'd actually be more optimistic if they kept shrieking QUAGMIRE.

Posted by: lauraw on February 27, 2005 09:08 PM

"it's about time they were soft-headed towards the possibility-- the possibility, mind you-- that freedom works." Not a chance! They want us to lose and one salient thing about Liberals is their foolish consistency. They are totally incapable of ever admitting they were wrong because basically they don't care. Many still claim that Sacco and Vansetti and Alger Hiss were innocent, McCarthy was wrong that there were Communists in the State Department, J. Edgar Hoover was a transvestite, and Stalin didn't steal the atomic bomb, all despite irrefutable evidence from Soviet archives.

Posted by: 72VIRGINS on February 28, 2005 11:54 AM

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Funniest thing I've read about the Virginia mess. Back when they were hustling the referendum through the assembly both Senators, Warner and Kaine, advised them to go slow and play by the rules. Louise Lucas said she respected them but didn't need advice from the "cuck chair" in the corner. The gerrymandering was overturned and Louise is heading for the big house. Edward G. Robinson voice "where's your cuck now?"
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Chris
@chriswithans

"Ahhhhh ahh I put my career on the line for Louise Lucas and Jay Jones thinking they'd vault me into presidential contention and we ended up costing Democrats 20 House seats and unleashing a Reverse Dobbs ahhhhh ahhh"

Forgotten 80s Mystery Click That Sums Up the Democrat Communist Party Today
Something is wrong as I hold you near
Somebody else holds your heart, yeah
You turn to me with your icy tears
And then it's raining, feels like it's raining

TJM wonders about world building in stories, mostly The Hunger Games

"It's f**king f**ked."
-- reportedly a genuine comment offered by a "senior Labour source"
Correction: I wrote that Labour is losing 88% (now 87%) of the seats it is "defending." I think that's wrong. The right way to say it is the seats they are contesting -- that is, they don't necessarily already hold these seats, but they have put up a candidate to run for the seat. It's still very bad but not as bad as losing 87% of the seats they already held.

Basil the Great
@BasilTheGreat

🚨ED MILIBAND [a Minister in Starmer's government] SAYS KEIR STARMER WILL RESIGN AS PRIME MINISTER

He has reportedly reassured Labour MP's that Starmer will be resigning following the disastrous results tonight

It's over

"The end of the two party system in the UK" as first the Fake Conservatives and now Labour chooses political suicide rather than simply STOPPING THE INVASION
Incidentally, the only reason this didn't already happen in the US is because of the Very Bad Orange Man (who is right on 85% of all policy calls and extremely, existentially right on 15% of them)

No political party that is NOT also a doomsday religious cult would EVER choose a cataclysmic loss -- and possible extinction as a party -- to support a toxically unpopular favoritism of NON-CITIZEN ILLEGAL MIGRANTS over actual citizen voters.

Only a cult does this.

Now they've lost 84%.

Annunziata Rees-Mogg
@zatzi
If this continues Labour loses 2,148 seats tonight.

That is much worse than the worst case predictions I’ve seen.

Cataclysmic

Update: They've now lost 88% of the seats they're defending. As I mentioned earlier, I think I heard that London will not bail them out, as many of those Labour seats will probably flip to "Muslim Independent" or Green. Detroit's 5am vote will not save them.

Yup, Labour is losing 80% of its seats...

The British Patriot
@TheBritLad

🚨 BREAKING: Labour have lost 80% of all seats contested as of 2:25 AM.<
br> If this continues, Keir Starmer will be out of office next week.

Reform has surged and projected to pick up between 1700-2100 seats.

Wow, up to 1700-2100 seats. It's not incredible that this is happening. It's incredible that the Davos crowd is so absolutely determined to privilege Muslim "migrants" over the actual native population who elects them, no matter how loudly the natives scream that they want to be prioritized, that they will gladly self-extinguish as a party rather than simply representing the interests of their own voters. Astonishing.
Remember, when they call other people "cultists" -- they are the ones so imprisoned in their social reinforcement and discipline bubbles that they will choose political death rather than dare upset the Karen Enforcement Officers of their cult.
Update: Now they've lost 83% of the seats they were defending.

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges

Reform are basically wiping Labour out in the North. It's not a defeat. It's not even a rout. Labour are simply ceasing to exist.

Nick Lowles
@lowles_nick

Tonight’s results are calamitous for Labour. Not just for Keir Starmer's leadership, but for the very future of the party

STARMERGEDDON: In early returns, Reform gains 135 seats, Labour loses 90, the Fake Conservatives lose 36 (and I didn't even know they could fall any further), the Lib Dems lose 4, and the Greens gain 6. Note that the only other party gaining seats is the Greens and they're only gaining a handful of seats.
Update: Reform now up 145, Labour down 98.
Labour projected to lose Wales -- where they've ruled for 27 years.
Fulton County Georgia just discovered 400 boxes of ballots for Labour
Update: REF +156, LAB -107, CON -45
Brutal: In four out of five council seats where Labour is defending, they've lost. 80%.
I'm sure it's not this simple, but Reform is straight taking Labour's and the "Conservatives'" seats. They've lost almost exactly what Reform gained. If understand this right (and warning, I probably don't), all of London's council seats are up for election, and Labour might lose hugely there, as their old voters abandon them for Reform, Muslim Indenpendents, and the Greens.
REF +190, LAB -134, CON -56.

Updates on the Labour collapse in council elections -- which wags are calling #Starmergeddon -- from Beege Welborne. There are about 5000 seats up for grabs, Labour is expected to lose 1,800, Reform will probably gain 1,580, up from... zero. So this would be more than that.
People claim that while Labour has adopted the Sharia Agenda to appeal to the million Muslims it allowed to migrate to the country, those voters are ditching Labour to vote for the Muslim Independent Party or the Greens. Delicious. This shadenfreude is going straight to my thighs.
Oh, and if Starmer loses about as badly as expected, Labour will toss him out of a window Braveheart style and replace him. He will announce he is resigning to spend more time with his Gay Ukrainian Male Prostitutes.

Media bias and senationalism are as old as, well, the media:

That was written by Denny O'Neill and illustrated by, get this, Frank Miller. Editor to the Stars Jim Shooter was in charge at the time.
I always thought the gag was original to the comic book, but in fact the "Threat or Menace" headline was a satirical joke about media bias and sensationalism for a long while. The Harvard Lampoon used it in a parody of Life magazine: "Flying Saucers: Threat or Menace?"

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