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February 26, 2005

Clock Ticking Softly For Damascus?

Overstated, perhaps, but two interesting stories suggest that Syria might have made its last consequence-free mistake.

From World Net Daily:

'U.S. will get Syria out by May'
Former Lebanese PM says war in Iraq will allow his country to be free

By Aaron Klein

JERUSALEM -- The U.S. led war against terrorism and its advances in Iraq and Afghanistan have enhanced the climate in the Middle East and will enable the international community to force Syria to withdraw its troops from Lebanon likely by May, former Lebanese Prime Minister Michel Aoun told WorldNetDaily today in an exclusive interview.

"The U.S. and EU are backing us in our movement to free Lebanon," said Aoun, speaking to WND from France. "They are interfering through diplomacy and threats of sanctions, and the situation is such today that Syria must comply. If the U.S. and Europe follow through, Syria will be obliged to withdraw before Lebanese elections in May."

Without offering a timeline, Syria announced Wednesday it will withdraw its troops from Lebanon to the eastern Bekaa Valley....

"The U.S. efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan have changed the Middle East. Not only the attacks to oust the rulers of those countries, but the consequences of the attacks changed things as well. They are democratizing the region and this will put pressure on [Syrian President Bashar] Assad to follow through," said Aoun.

"All these changes in the Middle East make obsolete the previous ways of Syria in dealing with Lebanon and Syria's involvement with political terrorism, which is not accepted anymore."

Meanwhile, a reader of TKS says...

...that the Iraqi forces are being built up to eventually take action against Syria. He adds the military action would be associated with Syria's refusal to police the border with Iraq to prevent terrorists and Baathists from entering Iraq.

This oddly echoes Kevin McCullough’s Pentagon source who said yesterday, “Likely, Syria's meddling in Iraq and the upcoming Lebanese elections will provide sufficient trigger for some "coalition" action. That action may well have an "Iraqi" face.”

The liberals may bleat, but a couple of points:

1) Europe actually seems to give a rat's ass about Lebanon's freedom, largely because France has always viewed itself as the protector of Lebanon's Christians. They might even pony up peace-keepers to keep order as the Syrian army departs.

2) It would not take a land invasion to drive Syria from Lebanon, should it come to that. Airstrikes on their troops should encourage them to depart as soon as humanly possible.

3) We wouldn't have to invade or occupy Syria, which we don't consider a threat like Iraq or Iran at this point; simply driving Syrian from Lebanon, and perhaps hitting military targets within Syria, would be enough. Not all military action needs to be a full-scale Iraq-style invasion and occupation (and reconstruction); American airpower can make life miserable for an intransigent regime.

I don't agree with Pat Buchanan much these days, but I do agree with his critique that Bush has to stop "warning" countries and threatening consequences unless he's actually prepared to do so-- unless he wants to see his credibility fall to nearly UN-levels.

Perhaps Bush agrees, and is putting out these sorts of low-key, unofficial threats out there to let Damascus know we're serious... or that we soon might be.

Related: David Brooks catches a bad case of optimism in a must-read column:

This is the most powerful question in the world today: Why not here? People in Eastern Europe looked at people in Western Europe and asked, Why not here? People in Ukraine looked at people in Georgia and asked, Why not here? People around the Arab world look at voters in Iraq and ask, Why not here?

Thomas Kuhn famously argued that science advances not gradually but in jolts, through a series of raw and jagged paradigm shifts. Somebody sees a problem differently, and suddenly everybody's vantage point changes.

"Why not here?" is a Kuhnian question, and as you open the newspaper these days, you see it flitting around the world like a thought contagion. Wherever it is asked, people seem to feel that the rules have changed. New possibilities have opened up.

...

Stephen Sestanovich of the Council on Foreign Relations wrote an important essay for this page a few weeks ago, arguing that American diplomacy is often most effective when it pursues not an incrementalist but a "maximalist" agenda, leaping over allies and making the crude, bold, vantage-shifting proposal - like pushing for the reunification of Germany when most everyone else was trying to preserve the so-called stability of the Warsaw Pact.

I was skeptical of Bush's full-throated call to place freedom and democracy at the heart of American foreign policy, and I guess I remain so.

But I guess we'll just have to see, won't we?

Read the whole thing. I don't think I've excerpted the best parts, because most of the essay is "best parts."


posted by Ace at 02:15 AM
Comments



Spit on hands, hoist flag, etc. etc.. Go get em.

Posted by: CL on February 26, 2005 04:04 AM

One thing's for sure Ace, we can't let this story die. I think the first chance MSM gets to kill it, they will. Don't think they can handle too many Lebanese politicians wondering out loud: "Iraq was an earthquake in the Arab world.!"

Posted by: Hans on February 26, 2005 05:13 AM

From Jihand Watch the AP reports:

The bearded man in a gray jacket...appeared on... Iraqi state television station Wednesday had a stark message about the insurgency -- he was Syrian intelligence officer who helped train people to behead others and build card bombs to attack American and Iraqi troops.

"My name is Anas Ahmed al-Essa... I am from Syria... "What's you're job?" he was asked by someone off-camera. "I am a lieutenant in intelligence." Then a second question. "Which intelligence?" The reply: "Syrian intelligence." And so began a detailed 15-minute confession broadcast by al-Iraqiya TV...

see jihadwatch

or see

Posted by: Ledger1 on February 26, 2005 05:29 AM

Ace--

You're slightly more optimistic about military action than I am. Firstly, because of the technical limits of airpower. This coming from an airpower zealot-- airstrikes without intelligence on the ground (or mobile forces flushing the enemy out of hiding) is a difficult business. We could be bombing for a LONNNG time before we start to see the effects we want to see-- all the while exposed to more worldwide criticism (none of which admittedly means much in the end, but never underestimate the power of mass media to inflate the minor into the major, and to incrementally but inevitably shift military strategy in a negative direction).

As for the political considerations, if all we were doing was parking the Sixth Fleet off of Beirut and letting 'em have it, I'd agree 100%. However, unlike decades past Syria has the means to directly retaliate against us, this time against our forces in Iraq.

So far, their aid to the Jihadis has mostly been hinted at, rarely confirmed (at least not to Euro-trash "impossible" standards). If, however, we openly took action against Damascus, the gloves could come off quite quickly, with open (and full) Syrian support for the Jihadis in Iraq.

I don't know if it would make much of a military difference in Iraq in the long run, but having an active state sponsor of the Jihadis would probably increase the violence significantly in the short run.

Until Iraq is secure-- or, secure "enough"-- it remains our Achilles heel in the region. It not only sucks up our available ground strength, thus eliminating our most potent option; Iraq has the potential to generate a two-front war against both Syria and Iran.

I'm not saying this isn't going on right now with Iran & Syria; I'm just saying that any decision to use military force against either country has to consider their retaliatory response to our forces in Iraq, not to mention the free Iraqi forces.

But I'm sure my bosses are thinking about that right now.

I hope.

Cheers,
Dave at Garfield Ridge

Posted by: Dave at Garfield Ridge on February 26, 2005 08:24 AM

I know we all like making jokes at the expense of the French; guilty as charged. However, I believe in this case the French have some nuisance value. Nothing like a former colony to pique their interest. I also believe that the French know they can make a whole lot more money off a freed Lebanon than one controlled by the Syrians. In their quest to please the rest of the Arab world, they may not have cared so much, but if the rest of the Arab world is willing to throw Little Assad to the wolves, heck, even the French can spoil for a good fight.

"En garde!"

Posted by: Ron on February 26, 2005 09:29 AM

I doubt very much the premise of the WND article claiming that Syria could be forced to leave Lebanon through diplomacy and sanctions. The US does very little trade with Syria and the rest of the world has shown many times that they don't give a rat's ass what scum they trade with as long as they can make a buck. They won't go along with sanctions.

I believe it'll take some military action, which I would expect some time within the next through months. And, that'll just put another nail in the coffin of the Democratic Party as Bush's foreign policy is proven to be correct again.

Posted by: on February 26, 2005 10:27 AM

It's rarely considered the responsibility of a nation to patrol it's border to police those leaving, people leaving rarely are a threat. Border security concentrates on those entering. I want Syria out of Lebanon more than mostbut that's not a valid reason to force them out. I don't understand why it has taken all these years to finally draw some attention to the problem and they nned to use this as the reason for threats of action. The fact that Syria is allowing terrorist activities inside Lebanon and is an oppressive occupying force and has done both for years should be enough for action. I notice that noone is calling for action against Syria IN Syria for the same problems yet, and that's the root of the whole problem. I say ask them to leave Lebanon, throw them out if necessary and sanction them until they clean up their act inside their own nation, or force them at the point of a gun if sanctions fail. Set up some Iraqi training bases along the border and let Iraq assume responsibility for policing people coming in. If there is a better place for training recruits and better conditions for building morale than protecting your own border I sure don't know what it would be. From everything I've seen the majority of new Iraqi troops are based in the cities of Iraq where the personal conflict of bearing arms against fellow Iraqis must have an effect on them. It seems to me if they could train against a clearly defined enemy they would adapt more readily and if they can cut off the flow of arms, money, and so-called insurgents that are nothing more than invading terrorists the training and the actions afterward would feel like an accomplishment rather than the way it must feel now. The Iraqi population in general would view them more as defenders instead having mixed feelings about them like they do now.

Posted by: bullwinkle on February 26, 2005 11:26 AM

Syria may not be a direct threat to the US (yet), but they are very much a threat to our two key allies in the region, Israel and Iraq. If we want a stable Iraq, we have to get Assad in line, which will very possibly mean sticking him in a cell next to Saddam's.

Posted by: Van Helsing on February 26, 2005 04:55 PM

it would be sweet if, while bombing said troops, we dropped a bomb or two on some Hezbollah camps in the Bekka Valley.

"Whoops. How did that happen?"

Posted by: sonofnixon on February 26, 2005 06:43 PM

Here's a bit of irony. If Bush's implied plan works - ie, if a Democratic Iraq makes despotic regimes like Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Iran untenable each of which then collapses from its own weight with support from Special Forces and not US Army regulars - then America will have spread freedom throughout the Mideast while only fighting 2 synchronous conflicts.

Think of the savings in human life, property, infrastructure. Think of the spread of freedom. What if Iraq is not a quagmire, but the keystone in a dam that's needed to burst? What if Iraq was not about WMDs at all, but about gaining the center of the chessboard in the Middle East? And Rumsfeld would be vindicated - smaller mobile military units operating independently and asynchronously become the new political weapon of war - the best response to rogue states and rogue WMDs.

And what are the eventual payoffs to America? Bases for our troops, democratic protection of our oil supply, friendly regimes seeking to establish credibility against the remaining despotic regimes of Russia and China. And don't forget the freedom brought to millions in the process.

The irony to all of this is that not only will Bush have succeeded, but it will be at a ridiculously low cost. Every criticism leveled against him these last 4 + years will fall on its face. Finally, he will have succeded in utterly dismantling the entire framework on which leftist foreign policy is based in America, whereby America is an invisible hand leading the world quietly to soc-ialism and Marxism. Instead freedom, capitalism, and democratic republics will be not only viable and available, but also the best route forward. It will be Reagan's victory vs. the Soviet Union rewritten in an age of Asynchronous warfare and post-modernist Marxism.

It would be a good thing.

Posted by: John on February 26, 2005 09:04 PM

I like the way you think John.
I'm an optimist too.

For an interesting, yet depressing counterpoint, check out Allah's blog.

Posted by: lauraw on February 26, 2005 09:33 PM
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Funniest thing I've read about the Virginia mess. Back when they were hustling the referendum through the assembly both Senators, Warner and Kaine, advised them to go slow and play by the rules. Louise Lucas said she respected them but didn't need advice from the "cuck chair" in the corner. The gerrymandering was overturned and Louise is heading for the big house. Edward G. Robinson voice "where's your cuck now?"
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"Ahhhhh ahh I put my career on the line for Louise Lucas and Jay Jones thinking they'd vault me into presidential contention and we ended up costing Democrats 20 House seats and unleashing a Reverse Dobbs ahhhhh ahhh"
Forgotten 80s Mystery Click That Sums Up the Democrat Communist Party Today
Something is wrong as I hold you near
Somebody else holds your heart, yeah
You turn to me with your icy tears
And then it's raining, feels like it's raining
"It's f**king f**ked."
-- reportedly a genuine comment offered by a "senior Labour source"
Correction: I wrote that Labour is losing 88% (now 87%) of the seats it is "defending." I think that's wrong. The right way to say it is the seats they are contesting -- that is, they don't necessarily already hold these seats, but they have put up a candidate to run for the seat. It's still very bad but not as bad as losing 87% of the seats they already held.
Basil the Great
@BasilTheGreat

🚨ED MILIBAND [a Minister in Starmer's government] SAYS KEIR STARMER WILL RESIGN AS PRIME MINISTER

He has reportedly reassured Labour MP's that Starmer will be resigning following the disastrous results tonight

It's over
"The end of the two party system in the UK" as first the Fake Conservatives and now Labour chooses political suicide rather than simply STOPPING THE INVASION
Incidentally, the only reason this didn't already happen in the US is because of the Very Bad Orange Man (who is right on 85% of all policy calls and extremely, existentially right on 15% of them)
No political party that is NOT also a doomsday religious cult would EVER choose a cataclysmic loss -- and possible extinction as a party -- to support a toxically unpopular favoritism of NON-CITIZEN ILLEGAL MIGRANTS over actual citizen voters.

Only a cult does this.
Now they've lost 84%.
Annunziata Rees-Mogg
@zatzi
If this continues Labour loses 2,148 seats tonight.

That is much worse than the worst case predictions I’ve seen.

Cataclysmic

Update: They've now lost 88% of the seats they're defending. As I mentioned earlier, I think I heard that London will not bail them out, as many of those Labour seats will probably flip to "Muslim Independent" or Green. Detroit's 5am vote will not save them.
Yup, Labour is losing 80% of its seats...
The British Patriot
@TheBritLad

🚨 BREAKING: Labour have lost 80% of all seats contested as of 2:25 AM.<
br> If this continues, Keir Starmer will be out of office next week.

Reform has surged and projected to pick up between 1700-2100 seats.


Wow, up to 1700-2100 seats. It's not incredible that this is happening. It's incredible that the Davos crowd is so absolutely determined to privilege Muslim "migrants" over the actual native population who elects them, no matter how loudly the natives scream that they want to be prioritized, that they will gladly self-extinguish as a party rather than simply representing the interests of their own voters. Astonishing.
Remember, when they call other people "cultists" -- they are the ones so imprisoned in their social reinforcement and discipline bubbles that they will choose political death rather than dare upset the Karen Enforcement Officers of their cult.
Update: Now they've lost 83% of the seats they were defending.
(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges

Reform are basically wiping Labour out in the North. It's not a defeat. It's not even a rout. Labour are simply ceasing to exist.


Nick Lowles
@lowles_nick

Tonight’s results are calamitous for Labour. Not just for Keir Starmer's leadership, but for the very future of the party
STARMERGEDDON: In early returns, Reform gains 135 seats, Labour loses 90, the Fake Conservatives lose 36 (and I didn't even know they could fall any further), the Lib Dems lose 4, and the Greens gain 6. Note that the only other party gaining seats is the Greens and they're only gaining a handful of seats.
Update: Reform now up 145, Labour down 98.
Labour projected to lose Wales -- where they've ruled for 27 years.
Fulton County Georgia just discovered 400 boxes of ballots for Labour
Update: REF +156, LAB -107, CON -45
Brutal: In four out of five council seats where Labour is defending, they've lost. 80%.
I'm sure it's not this simple, but Reform is straight taking Labour's and the "Conservatives'" seats. They've lost almost exactly what Reform gained. If understand this right (and warning, I probably don't), all of London's council seats are up for election, and Labour might lose hugely there, as their old voters abandon them for Reform, Muslim Indenpendents, and the Greens.
REF +190, LAB -134, CON -56.
Updates on the Labour collapse in council elections -- which wags are calling #Starmergeddon -- from Beege Welborne. There are about 5000 seats up for grabs, Labour is expected to lose 1,800, Reform will probably gain 1,580, up from... zero. So this would be more than that.
People claim that while Labour has adopted the Sharia Agenda to appeal to the million Muslims it allowed to migrate to the country, those voters are ditching Labour to vote for the Muslim Independent Party or the Greens. Delicious. This shadenfreude is going straight to my thighs.
Oh, and if Starmer loses about as badly as expected, Labour will toss him out of a window Braveheart style and replace him. He will announce he is resigning to spend more time with his Gay Ukrainian Male Prostitutes.
Media bias and senationalism are as old as, well, the media:
spidermanthreatormenace.jpg

That was written by Denny O'Neill and illustrated by, get this, Frank Miller. Editor to the Stars Jim Shooter was in charge at the time.
I always thought the gag was original to the comic book, but in fact the "Threat or Menace" headline was a satirical joke about media bias and sensationalism for a long while. The Harvard Lampoon used it in a parody of Life magazine: "Flying Saucers: Threat or Menace?"
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