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December 21, 2004

The Law of Gravity Sucks, Maybe

Or at least maybe it needs to be tweaked:

It was in 1980 that John Anderson first wondered if something funny was going on with gravity.
The Jet Propulsion Laboratory physicist was looking over data from two Pioneer spacecraft that had been speeding through the solar system for nearly a decade.

Only something was off base. The craft weren't where they were supposed to be.

Rather than traveling at a constant velocity of more than 25,000 mph toward the edge of the solar system, Pioneers 10 and 11 were inexplicably slowing down. Even factoring in the gravitational pull of the sun and its other planets couldn't explain what he was seeing.

How could that be?

At first, Anderson figured there must be a simple explanation. Maybe there was a malfunction on board the spacecraft. Maybe his calculations were wrong.

Shy, bookish and soft-spoken, Anderson was not the type to call a news conference to announce that two U.S. spacecraft appeared to be disobeying the physical laws of the universe.

"I assumed something was going on that I didn't understand," said Anderson, now 70. "So I just kept at it."

For years.

It was a lonely, often comfortless pursuit. Some critics pounded away at him for daring to question the conventional wisdom about the force that keeps our feet on the ground and the stars on their appointed rounds. Others questioned his math.

Two decades later, Anderson's work on what is now called the Pioneer Anomaly may finally be paying off.

In October, a European Space Agency panel recommended a space mission to determine whether Anderson had found something that could rewrite physics textbooks. Some cosmologists even speculate the Pioneer Anomaly might help unravel some of the thorniest problems in theoretical physics, such as the existence of "dark matter" or mysterious extra-dimensional forces predicted by string theory.

...

"There are two possible explanations," Turyshev said. "The most plausible is systematics."

The second possibility is new physics.

"If it's new physics, the implications are truly tremendous," he said.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So what would be the implications?

One possibility is that invisible, so-called dark matter is holding the spacecraft back. Some cosmologists believe that dark matter exists because only 10% of the expected mass of the universe has been found. If 90% of the universe's mass and energy is invisible, maybe it could exert gravitational pull on spacecraft.

Another possibility, even more fanciful, is that invisible dimensions of space are tugging at the Pioneers. This idea has its origin in string theory, an idea that suggests we are surrounded by far more than the three dimensions we know about. Some versions of string theory suggest there may be as many as 11 dimensions, most of which are curled up and hidden from us.

As with dark matter, no hard evidence has been found proving the existence of vibrating strings far tinier than the smallest known particles.

A third possibility is that gravity has been hiding secrets that three centuries of research have failed to uncover.

NASA doesn't seem interested in a launch to test if the anomaly is real. Seems to be one of the cheaper projects it could fund-- just send a big radio transceiver into space, without all that fooferall needed to land on a planet.

But at least until 2015, there'll be no tests. Shame.

posted by Ace at 03:29 PM

Comments

Vernor Vinge wrote a very good book that speculated on the ramifications of non-local physics. I think it was "A Fire Upon the Deep." A great read.

Posted by: TallDave on December 21, 2004 03:36 PM

As long as I'm plugging books, there's a couple non-fiction by Brian Greene - "Fabric of the Cosmos" and "The Elegant Universe" that are excellent for laypeople. I've read both of them several times, and each time through I'm amazed and fascinated anew.

"Elegant Universe" has by far the best examples of the double-slit experiment and relativity I've ever read.

Sorry, posted this in the wrong thread the first time.

Posted by: TallDave on December 21, 2004 03:42 PM

Both "A Fire Upon the Deep" and its sorta-prequel "A Deepness in the Sky" are great books. I slightly prefer "Fire," personally, but I think it's just a matter of taste.

The cosmology stuff only comes into play in the first novel (the second takes place almost entirely around one star), and it's on a galactic scale.

Posted by: Jeff Harrell on December 21, 2004 03:49 PM

There's a reason they still call it the "theory" of gravity.

Posted by: Joe R. the Unabrewer on December 21, 2004 04:10 PM

Wow--not only did he write the country hits "Swingin'" and "Money in the Bank", but John Anderson is also an astrophysicist? Quite the renaissance man!

Posted by: see-dubya on December 21, 2004 04:38 PM

Actually, we are all on the back of a turtle floating in a cosmic pond and the pond is drying up because of global warming caused by decades of the release of very toxic Liberal-Hot-Air-Gases into the atmosphere. And as the Pioneer spacecraft neared the edge of the pond, their ability to float was impeded by overgrown prehistoric alcohol-soaked Pondscum with Oldsmobiles like Ted Kennedy. Yes indeed!

Posted by: 72VIRGINS on December 21, 2004 04:39 PM

"Shy, bookish and soft-spoken, Anderson was not the type to call a news conference to announce that two U.S. spacecraft appeared to be disobeying the physical laws of the universe."

Or maybe because that would be stupid? Really, do reporters think that's how science is done, by press conference? They might be shocked to find that hundreds of thousands of scientists work around the world every day and none of them feel the need to be blessed by the great journalist elite.

Also, this 'dark matter' concept that the press keeps peddling is getting a little tired. Dark matter need be no more 'invisible' than my coffee cup is right now, since it's in the washer and I can't see it. Dark matter simply refers to the matter that we're pretty sure is out there (to balance the equations) but that we can't see anywhere with our telescopes. It's not a single kind of matter or some kind of frickin Ultratonium.

Posted by: Tom on December 21, 2004 04:51 PM

"If it's new physics, the implications are truly tremendous," he said.

I can not understate the gravity of the situation.

(/got nuffin')

PS - 72Virgins... channeling Rincewind, I see?

Posted by: Xoxotl on December 21, 2004 06:29 PM

Joe R. There's a reason they still call it the "theory" of gravity.

Yes. That would be because it's a theory. That is, a detailed and thoroughly tested mathematical model of a physical process.

Tom: Really, do reporters think that's how science is done, by press conference?

Yes.

Posted by: Pixy Misa on December 21, 2004 07:31 PM

Great post, Ace!

Since Pioneer though, we have sent out many long range space probes with degrees greater locational position signalling. Most recently Cassini. Perhaps dark matter, string theory can be gleaned from them. I am convinced after watching the Rovers move about for what seems like a year with more to come, and other probes - that more, far more, can be gained for each dollar spent, by robotic probes vs. the human Astronaut going to the same place for 1,000 times the cost, planting a flag, and leaving after a few days.

If those probes don't answer the Pioneer Anomoly, maybe a new one, like a prototype nuclear-ion engine driven one aimed at achieving 3-10% lightspeed might do the trick....

Posted by: Cedarford on December 21, 2004 08:42 PM

Jeff,

I read Deepness first, and I thought Fire was a much better and more insightful novel. I found the whole concept of superluminal thought and its implications utterly captivating, as well as the descriptions like "Now every hour it experienced was as long as all the time that had preceded it."

Might have to bring that one on the Christmas flight again...

Posted by: TallDave on December 22, 2004 10:35 AM

Baryonic dark matter is only one possibility, wimp. You equivocate "dark"--from their usage to your own. Also, "press keeps peddling" is not accurate in light of the fact scientists are continuing the debate over these very issues.

Dark matter simply refers to the matter that we're pretty sure is out there (to balance the equations) but that we can't see anywhere with our telescopes. It's not a single kind of matter or some kind of frickin Ultratonium.

A swaggering, macho position. If it's not a single kind of matter, then why mention only your coffee cup? And how do you would you ever prove the wimpiness of ultratonium? By proclaimation?

Posted by: rdbrewer on December 23, 2004 01:35 AM

The simplest explanation might be, "rocket science is hard."

The Pioneer probes all had close flybys with various planets to get a gravitational slingshot accelleration. Small deviances in these maneuvers could have resulted in unexpected changes in trajectory. These differences may be small, but would be exagerated over time. Like flying from New York to Los Angeles using only a compass and a stopwatch, a 1 degree error in your heading will cause an enormous position error by the time you hit the west coast.

It's a complicated problem with a lot of variables, and everything is being observed at extreme distances. Add to the mix that you have an extremly small sample of observations, and the chances of error are enormous.

More study and additional probes are necessary to provide additional data, but i wouldn't be rewriting physics text books just yet. This might be the 'cold fusion' equivalent for cosmology. Looks interesting at first blush, but falls apart upon further examination.

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Funniest thing I've read about the Virginia mess. Back when they were hustling the referendum through the assembly both Senators, Warner and Kaine, advised them to go slow and play by the rules. Louise Lucas said she respected them but didn't need advice from the "cuck chair" in the corner. The gerrymandering was overturned and Louise is heading for the big house. Edward G. Robinson voice "where's your cuck now?"
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Somebody else holds your heart, yeah
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TJM wonders about world building in stories, mostly The Hunger Games

"It's f**king f**ked."
-- reportedly a genuine comment offered by a "senior Labour source"
Correction: I wrote that Labour is losing 88% (now 87%) of the seats it is "defending." I think that's wrong. The right way to say it is the seats they are contesting -- that is, they don't necessarily already hold these seats, but they have put up a candidate to run for the seat. It's still very bad but not as bad as losing 87% of the seats they already held.

Basil the Great
@BasilTheGreat

🚨ED MILIBAND [a Minister in Starmer's government] SAYS KEIR STARMER WILL RESIGN AS PRIME MINISTER

He has reportedly reassured Labour MP's that Starmer will be resigning following the disastrous results tonight

It's over

"The end of the two party system in the UK" as first the Fake Conservatives and now Labour chooses political suicide rather than simply STOPPING THE INVASION
Incidentally, the only reason this didn't already happen in the US is because of the Very Bad Orange Man (who is right on 85% of all policy calls and extremely, existentially right on 15% of them)

No political party that is NOT also a doomsday religious cult would EVER choose a cataclysmic loss -- and possible extinction as a party -- to support a toxically unpopular favoritism of NON-CITIZEN ILLEGAL MIGRANTS over actual citizen voters.

Only a cult does this.

Now they've lost 84%.

Annunziata Rees-Mogg
@zatzi
If this continues Labour loses 2,148 seats tonight.

That is much worse than the worst case predictions I’ve seen.

Cataclysmic

Update: They've now lost 88% of the seats they're defending. As I mentioned earlier, I think I heard that London will not bail them out, as many of those Labour seats will probably flip to "Muslim Independent" or Green. Detroit's 5am vote will not save them.

Yup, Labour is losing 80% of its seats...

The British Patriot
@TheBritLad

🚨 BREAKING: Labour have lost 80% of all seats contested as of 2:25 AM.<
br> If this continues, Keir Starmer will be out of office next week.

Reform has surged and projected to pick up between 1700-2100 seats.

Wow, up to 1700-2100 seats. It's not incredible that this is happening. It's incredible that the Davos crowd is so absolutely determined to privilege Muslim "migrants" over the actual native population who elects them, no matter how loudly the natives scream that they want to be prioritized, that they will gladly self-extinguish as a party rather than simply representing the interests of their own voters. Astonishing.
Remember, when they call other people "cultists" -- they are the ones so imprisoned in their social reinforcement and discipline bubbles that they will choose political death rather than dare upset the Karen Enforcement Officers of their cult.
Update: Now they've lost 83% of the seats they were defending.

(((Dan Hodges)))
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Reform are basically wiping Labour out in the North. It's not a defeat. It's not even a rout. Labour are simply ceasing to exist.

Nick Lowles
@lowles_nick

Tonight’s results are calamitous for Labour. Not just for Keir Starmer's leadership, but for the very future of the party

STARMERGEDDON: In early returns, Reform gains 135 seats, Labour loses 90, the Fake Conservatives lose 36 (and I didn't even know they could fall any further), the Lib Dems lose 4, and the Greens gain 6. Note that the only other party gaining seats is the Greens and they're only gaining a handful of seats.
Update: Reform now up 145, Labour down 98.
Labour projected to lose Wales -- where they've ruled for 27 years.
Fulton County Georgia just discovered 400 boxes of ballots for Labour
Update: REF +156, LAB -107, CON -45
Brutal: In four out of five council seats where Labour is defending, they've lost. 80%.
I'm sure it's not this simple, but Reform is straight taking Labour's and the "Conservatives'" seats. They've lost almost exactly what Reform gained. If understand this right (and warning, I probably don't), all of London's council seats are up for election, and Labour might lose hugely there, as their old voters abandon them for Reform, Muslim Indenpendents, and the Greens.
REF +190, LAB -134, CON -56.

Updates on the Labour collapse in council elections -- which wags are calling #Starmergeddon -- from Beege Welborne. There are about 5000 seats up for grabs, Labour is expected to lose 1,800, Reform will probably gain 1,580, up from... zero. So this would be more than that.
People claim that while Labour has adopted the Sharia Agenda to appeal to the million Muslims it allowed to migrate to the country, those voters are ditching Labour to vote for the Muslim Independent Party or the Greens. Delicious. This shadenfreude is going straight to my thighs.
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