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« Ann Coulter Speaks (Kinda) | Main | What Did Andrew Sullivan Expect in the War, Anyway? »
October 27, 2004

Pat Caddell: Undecideds Go For the Incumbent

Pardon me if I keep bringing this up, but I had long heard that undecideds always break for the challenger, until Howard Dean's former campaign manager called that complete bunk during the conventions. So I'm interested to know if it's true; obviously, it's a crucial bit of information for the upcoming election, which will almost certainly be pretty close (if not razor-close).

This site transcribes also Pat Caddell saying the bromide is pure crap:

CADDELL: ... One of the [erroneous] things by the way I'll point out to you, having just listened to you and the Speaker, is that no, the undecideds always break to the incumbent at the end of a Presidential campaign.

CAVUTO: Really?

CADDELL: That is the greatest misnomer I've ever heard, because nobody studies the history of this. Undecided voters, by the middle of October, have not decided to vote for the challenger, they go for the safe choice, the person they have. That is what was moving Carter--

CAVUTO: What does that mean, Pat, go for the safe choice, because--

CADDELL: In other words, if a challenger cannot convince them, it's what I used to call the button problem, it's the war problem. If you're not going to vote for, unless you convince yourself that the challenger will do a better job in protecting the country, or handling particularly foreign policy than will be the incumbent or the incumbent party, then if you haven't made that decision, you stay with what's safe, you stay with what you know, that you're comfortable with. And that's been working for Bush I think coming all along, and it's part of the whole--

CAVUTO: Well why didn't it work for Jimmy Carter, Pat?

CADDELL: It did. It did.

Caddell goes on to explain that undecideds were breaking for Carter in late October 1980, but that a tactical error by Carter ruined all that. But you'll have to click on the link for the end of the story.

Thanks to Kausfiles.


posted by Ace at 02:38 AM
Comments



Posted by: StreetGOP on October 27, 2004 02:56 AM

The tactical error by Carter was running for reelection in the United States and not heading straight for the Candyland board where he now resides. Or didn't you know that the American Revolution was an unnecessary (and presumably illegal) war.

Posted by: Dear Johns on October 27, 2004 04:35 AM

Purely FWIW, which may not be much... but in my workplace I've had conversations with several people about the elections- since we are currently doing early voting. I'm in Texas, but in the LLL epicenter of the state. Those that had already made up their mind were split 50/50 Bush/Kerry, but every single one of the undecideds has said they were going for Bush. Reason? They know what they're getting. Let's hope that's a trend.

Posted by: Jack Grey on October 27, 2004 05:14 AM

Ohhhhhhhhhhh I hope this is right. Undecideds breaking for the challenger is completely common wisdom in polling of races but the only asterick is that they may not in a time of war. Fingers crossed.

Posted by: Karol on October 27, 2004 06:16 PM

Huh. I always thought that the conventional wisdom was that undecideds generally stuck with the incumbent, that's why you have congressmen and senators who only leave office when their corpses are shoveled out of their chairs. Carter's problem was that the "better the devil you know" factor didn't outweigh the gravity distorting incompetence factor with the voters.

Posted by: Alex on October 27, 2004 08:04 PM

I'd always thought undecideds generally broke for the incumbent myself. What about last time, in 2000? Most polls showed Bush with a slight lead going into the election, but the undecideds broke heavily for the (quasi-incumbent) Gore.

Posted by: Cynical Nation on October 27, 2004 08:35 PM
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