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« Evan Thomas: Yeahp, Media Still "Absolutely" Want Kerry to Win | Main | German Economy Ailing; Frenchmen Nervous, Begin Trying to Make Nice-Nice With Americans and Brits »
October 19, 2004

Bush Lead Solidifies Nationally and in Ohio

Contrary to liberal suspicions, the FoxNews OpinionDynamics poll have actually been more favorable to Kerry than most other national polls, but the latest one shows Bush with a 48 to 43 edge. And that's without Nader.

I don't know why they keep asking the question that way. The man IS running, right? With Nader, Bush beats Kerry comfortably, 49-42.

Meanwhile, he leads Kerry by five, 49-44, in almost-must-have Ohio.



posted by Ace at 05:15 PM
Comments



I don't understand.

When Nader joins the race, more people vote for Bush in the national poll. 48 without him, 49 with him. That shouldn't make a difference.

One percent were either Kerry supporters or undecided without Nader. This one percent of the voters are like, "Nader's running? Well, then, I'm switching to Bush!"

I DON'T GET IT. IS THIS A JOKE?

Either the poll is wack or the sample has inconsistent preferences.

Posted by: See-Dubya on October 19, 2004 05:33 PM

What I don't get is how mad Alarming News gets when I just post polling information.

IS THIS SARCASTIC? IF SO, YOU SURE LOST ME.

Posted by: ace on October 19, 2004 05:39 PM

Ace, I don't understand the Alarming News reference-sorry.

I asked a political science guy, who works for a major political science company, we're talking Fortune 500, what could explain that. I'm not sure I understand his reply:

"So Nader is only included when he's actually on
the ballot in your state, so my guess is that these are sub-samples (i.e.,
Bush only has 48% support in Nader states, 49% in non-Nader states, so Bush
is slightly more popular in non-Nader states due to, for example, the fact
that Nader's not on the ballot in the South). Or possibly that Nader manages
to draw ~1% from both candidates (note Kerry and Bush are one point higher
in the second item). My guess is the former."

Posted by: SeeDub on October 19, 2004 07:43 PM

Oh, Alarming News is another blog that says it hates me because I post either encouraging or discouraging polls.

Posted by: ace on October 19, 2004 08:24 PM

I think it all comes down to Ohio. Win there, and take the entire Viking-tamale.

Posted by: Terry Notus on October 19, 2004 08:54 PM
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