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October 14, 2004
Polls Understate Republican Turnout?I hate having to pin my hopes on the idea, but KerrySpot has the evidence. posted by Ace at 12:41 PM
CommentsProblem is, 2002 and 2003 were off-year elections, when only highly-motivated and dedicated voters turned out in numbers. These situations have traditionally favored Republicans. There was no presidential race, no massive registration drives, no fuckin' P-Diddy "Vote or Die!" bullshit.... Posted by: Cynical Nation on October 14, 2004 12:54 PM
Have you really lost your nerve? This is piteous to watch. Posted by: someone on October 14, 2004 01:36 PM
Clearly, this is anecdotal but I worked the post-debate Bush appearance last night at Bank One Ballpark in Phoenix. It was an absolute madhouse. The line went along for blocks, nobody expected the turn-out on that scale. Anyway, I was very encouraged by it. Posted by: Golden Boy on October 14, 2004 01:40 PM
I wanted to do a post on this issue, but didn't even have this many facts, yet. Great link. IMO the media and the polls have yet to adjust to a post 9/11 electorate. Not just Republicans, but perhaps moderate and conservative democrats have been more engaged sinjce 9/11. Just look at the TV numbers for last night's debate. Amazing, especially with two playoff games going on. If you look at Howard's win in Australia, you see the same things. Polls and media say close, election isn't. Could be they are working off old voter model patterns based on several elections; few of which have taken place after 9/11, Afghanistan and Iraq. Posted by: Dan on October 14, 2004 02:38 PM
Not like I've been saying this for months or anything.... Posted by: The Black Republican on October 14, 2004 04:05 PM
The media and the polls have been swinging everything in favor of Kerry. I no longer even bother to look at the polls. We'll find out what people REALLY think on election day, and I predict it will be Australia all over again. Posted by: Elisa on October 14, 2004 04:33 PM
Australia, or 2002, or the recall (only dedicated voters turned up for -that-!? -- uh, no)... Posted by: someone on October 14, 2004 05:37 PM
One thing to remember about all these telephone 'polls'. *NONE* of them take into account the 'cellular phone only' voter. I wonder what the demographics are on that bunch??? Posted by: Dave on October 15, 2004 10:40 AM
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| The Deplorable Gourmet A Horde-sourced Cookbook [All profits go to charity] Top Headlines
Former Republican liberal Ben Sasse announces that he has stage IV metastasized pancreatic cancer: "I'm gonna die"
It's not just a "death sentence," as he says, but a rapidly coming one. I hope he can put his affairs in order and make sure his family is in a good as a position as they can be.
Brown killer takes the coward's way out. Naturally.
Still not identified, for some reason. Per Fox 25 Boston, the killer was a non-citizen permanent legal resident It continues to be strange that the police are so protective of his identity.
Fearful French cancel NYE concert on Champs-Élysées as migrant violence grows
The time is now! France must fight for its culture! [CBD]
Megyn Kelly finally calls out Candace Owens
Whoops, I meant she bravely attacks Sydney Sweeney for "bending the knee." (Sweeney put out a very empty PR statement saying "I'm against hate." Whoop-de-doo.) Megyn Kelly claims she doesn't want to call people out on the right when asked about Candace Owens but then has no compunctions at all about calling people out on the right. As long as they're not Candace Owens. Strangely, she seems blind and deaf to anything Candace Owens says. That's why this woman calls her "Megyn Keller." She's now asking her pay-pigs in Pakistan how they think she should address the Candace Owens situation, and if they think this is really all about Israel and the Jews.
The World Must Stop Ignoring What Iranians Already Know: The Regime Is on the Brink
Isn't it pretty to think so? [CBD]
I have happily forgotten what Milo Yiannopoulos sounds like, but I still enjoyed this impression from from Ami Kozak.
More revelations about the least-sexy broken relationship in media history
I'd wanted to review Parts 2, 3, and 4 of Ryan Lizza's revenge posts about Olivia Nuzzi, but they're all paywalled. I thought about briefly subscribing to get at them, but then I read this in Part 2: Remember the bamboo from Part 1? Do I ever! It's all I remember! Well, bamboo is actually a type of grass, and underground, it's all connected in a sprawling network, just like the parts of this story I never wanted to tell. I wish I hadn't been put in this position, that I didn't have to write about any of this, that I didn't have to subject myself or my loved ones to embarrassment and further loss of privacy. We're back to the fucking bamboo. Guys, I don't think I can pay for bamboo ruminations. I think he added that because he was embarrassed about all the bamboo imagery from Part 1. He's justifying his twin obsessions: His ex, and bamboo. Which is not a tree but a kind of grass, he'll have you know.
Olivia Nuzzi's crappy Sex and the City fanfic book isn't selling, says CNN (and CNN seems pretty pleased about that)
On Tuesday, the book arrived in stores. At lunchtime, in the Midtown Manhattan nexus of media and publishing, interest in Nuzzi's story seemed more muted. The Barnes and Noble on Fifth Avenue had seven copies tucked into a "New & Notable" rack next to the escalator, below Malala Yousafzai's "Finding My Way." Not many had sold so far, a store employee said. She trashes Ryan Lizza for his "Revenge Porn" here. Emily Jashinsky says that when the Bulwark's gay grifter Tim Miller asked why she didn't report on the (alleged) use of ketamine by RFKJr., she broke down in tears and asked to end the interview.
Canada Euthanized a Record 16.4K People Last Year
Aktion T4, now with Poutine! [CBD]
Trump's DOT Drops the Hammer: Thousands of CDL Trainers Shut Down
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