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October 14, 2004

Polls Understate Republican Turnout?

I hate having to pin my hopes on the idea, but KerrySpot has the evidence.


posted by Ace at 12:41 PM
Comments



Problem is, 2002 and 2003 were off-year elections, when only highly-motivated and dedicated voters turned out in numbers. These situations have traditionally favored Republicans. There was no presidential race, no massive registration drives, no fuckin' P-Diddy "Vote or Die!" bullshit....

Posted by: Cynical Nation on October 14, 2004 12:54 PM

Have you really lost your nerve? This is piteous to watch.

Posted by: someone on October 14, 2004 01:36 PM

Clearly, this is anecdotal but I worked the post-debate Bush appearance last night at Bank One Ballpark in Phoenix. It was an absolute madhouse. The line went along for blocks, nobody expected the turn-out on that scale. Anyway, I was very encouraged by it.

Posted by: Golden Boy on October 14, 2004 01:40 PM

I wanted to do a post on this issue, but didn't even have this many facts, yet. Great link. IMO the media and the polls have yet to adjust to a post 9/11 electorate. Not just Republicans, but perhaps moderate and conservative democrats have been more engaged sinjce 9/11. Just look at the TV numbers for last night's debate. Amazing, especially with two playoff games going on. If you look at Howard's win in Australia, you see the same things. Polls and media say close, election isn't. Could be they are working off old voter model patterns based on several elections; few of which have taken place after 9/11, Afghanistan and Iraq.

Posted by: Dan on October 14, 2004 02:38 PM

Not like I've been saying this for months or anything....

Posted by: The Black Republican on October 14, 2004 04:05 PM

The media and the polls have been swinging everything in favor of Kerry. I no longer even bother to look at the polls. We'll find out what people REALLY think on election day, and I predict it will be Australia all over again.

Posted by: Elisa on October 14, 2004 04:33 PM

Australia, or 2002, or the recall (only dedicated voters turned up for -that-!? -- uh, no)...

Posted by: someone on October 14, 2004 05:37 PM

One thing to remember about all these telephone 'polls'.

*NONE* of them take into account the 'cellular phone only' voter.

I wonder what the demographics are on that bunch???

Posted by: Dave on October 15, 2004 10:40 AM
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