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October 10, 2004

Going Into the Fourth Quarter with a Four-Point Lead

Don't accuse me of breaking open the champagne. I'm not. I don't even like champagne.

Everyone knows what the polls say and what I'm going to say is freaking obvious, but I'm going to say it anyway, because it's pleasing to say.

Even after the very best debate performance John Kerry could have hoped for, and the worst performance from Bush he could have wished for, the man still seems to be behind by 3 or 4 points. This new ABCNews polls says 4.

Whatever it is from 1 to 4 points -- Bush has a persistent, thusfar unerodable advantage over Kerry, and he can't seem to lose that advantage, even when he very nearly tries to.

posted by Ace at 04:25 PM

Comments

I am looking at things exactly as you.The thing that ASTOUNDS me though is how the drones out there think that Kerry won that debate on Friday.He came across to me as a condescending,morally suspect,pandering,un-centered,POLITICIAN.
OK I'm biased,but the man is not muy sympatico on any real level.And yet the loons feel he is wonderful only because they can see nothing but GWB.They seem to exist only to hate Bush,and can never be reasoned with or expected to think rationally.That social illness is the ONLY reason that Kerry will not suffer a massive blowout which would be the result at any other time in history.

Posted by: dougf on October 10, 2004 04:58 PM

I pray what you say is true. But frankly, this election looks a lot closer than I thought it would be a month ago. What I find shocking is the open campaigning of the MSM. CBS, now ABC with their Halprien memo. And they have NO shame. Brokaw and Jennings coming to the defense of Rather's use of forged documents. ABC, aparently saying today(10/10) that the Halprien memo is just fine with them. JUST WHAT IS GOING ON?

Swiftboat charges remain from last summer, no one seems to take an interest. UN food for oil is an open scandal, I don't see the MSM even appearing interested. Kerry's 19 year record in the Senate is an unmentionable. The only person being held to his past is Bush, and that's being done with forged memos (fake but true?). The New York Times, Wash Post, and other liberal papers are clearly in the tank. WHERE'S their shame? Is the liberal media/university/cultural establishment THAT corrupt. I guess the answer is YES. But where does this leave us?

Posted by: kjo on October 10, 2004 05:05 PM

'Is the liberal media/university/cultural establishment THAT corrupt. I guess the answer is YES. But where does this leave us?'---kjo

With the majority of the people who despite what the media spins,just know'in their gut',when a man is a dangerous poseur at a time when REAL steadfastness is required.
That is why Kerry will lose.

Posted by: on October 10, 2004 05:44 PM

I hold to the theory that you should add five points or so to the Republican's poll numbers to get an accurate reading. Conservative candidates tend to be undercounted for some reason.

The recent Howard election in Australia for instance; it was said to be a hair-thin lead for Howard but ended with a blowout.

Posted by: Brian on October 10, 2004 05:59 PM

I think also that Kerry has run a bad campaign and made endless boo-boos.

The comments about 'I only see 3 people here' who would make over 200K, giving nuclear fuel to Iran, saying Saddam was and wasn't a danger in the same debate, essentially saying Bush/Cheney were cowards regarding the war despite his defence of Clinton, and his own record, the 'I don't fall down' comments, the 'I've never heard of Botox' comment which if made made Bush would be evidence of his stupidity.

I have to ask myself if I am biased, and try to think of individual statements that Bush has made which are at the same level of being not just political talk where the truth is skewed, but just outright stupid, elitist or offensive.

Maybe the dems are just testing the loyalty of their base by putting the worst candidate out there and watching while the left squirms as they defend and vote for him.

Posted by: DelphiGuy on October 10, 2004 06:09 PM

While the current polls are good news, we need to redouble the efforts.

It seems to be true the Republican votes are often undercounted in polls. However, traditionally the Democrats do a better job of getting out the vote, even if that means the dead vote in Chicago.

This year the Republican Party is doing a better job of the GOTV effort in the last 72 hours. You can help by signing up with your local Republican Party or with RNC in Washington.

People with professional licenses are being put to special use. As an attorney I will be traveling from my home in Indiana to Ohio to deal with issues relating to voter access and voter fraud. Indiana currently shows the president up by 70% 30% so I am not needed here.

Why the huge edge inb Indiana? The Democrat running for governor (Joe Kernan) is a former Viet Nam POW. He passed on the DNC convention finding that he needed to stay home for some reason. We are trying like the dickens to get him to say something about John Kerry. So far he has been quieter than the Sphinx.

But then the key to the solution of one of Sherlock Holmes famous stories was the dog that did not bark.

Posted by: Allan Yackey on October 10, 2004 06:15 PM

Kerry/Edwards are the "champaign" ticket - both are frauds and shams, and if elected will inflict great pain on the US and our allies.

No champaign for me - I won't drink their koolaid.

Posted by: Frank_Reality on October 10, 2004 06:21 PM

Oh shoot - brain fart champaign,well is spelled champagne.

BTW If you drink something, go for a nice sparkling wine - we don't want to aid the French, do we?

Posted by: Frank_Reality on October 10, 2004 06:25 PM

Further to the comment by kjo above (and this is something many others have noted): when you consider the glaring bias, and indeed the blatant campaigning, of the MSM in favour of the Dems (or more properly, against Bush) over the last four years, the astonishment is not that Kerry has managed to apparently keep pace, but rather that Bush is even in the race.

With the pummelling he has taken from the media, he should have been so low in public approval at Christmas that he should have been considered a dead duck with the Repubs needing a new candidate. The fact that he is not only surviving but actually leading is testament to his own virtues, to the determination of at least half the US electorate to see the war through to victory, and finally to the accelerating loss of influence of the MSM.

And that latter item is of massive benefit to all of us.

Posted by: Doug on October 10, 2004 06:47 PM

Popular vote polls are not where it is at.

Battleground States, folks... Battleground State polls. That's where this will be decided. It appears Bush is starting to rebound there, too. But, this is the key.

My concern is that the Dems are already laying the groundwork in these states to stage another 2000 fiasco, because the results will not be what they want.

Posted by: Gary Lewis on October 10, 2004 07:01 PM

Kerry the Pooh on the "nuisance" of terrorism prior to 9/11 (see his interview published today):

Leon Klinghoffer discovered what a nuisance it is to be a wheelchair bound American who is pushed off a cruise ship by a terrorist who discovered he was Jewish.

The twelve American diplomats and hundreds of others murdered and injured in the Kenya embassay bombing must have found the whole thing ...well, downright irritating.

The six dead and thousand injured in the 1993 WTC bombing must have been annoyed no end by the whole thing.

Viewed in this Kerry-esque perspective, it is easy to see why he voted against intervention when Saddam invaded Kuwait at the time of the first gulf war: having a genocidal dictator taking over a neighbouring state with vast oil wealth, emerging empowered, emboldened and enriched, and in a better position than ever to work on his WMD programs - well that was a bother, but not worth getting all worked up over.

Ditto Saddam's assembling a decade letter a coalition of the bribed to escape from the sanctions regime and renew his chemical weapons project.

And as for Iran, with its insane and anti-semitic leadership getting the bomb - hokey smokes, after Kerry supplies them with peaceful nuclear technology and they go and make a bomb anyway - just like North Korea - you can count on Kerry getting a bit tetchy, but not enough to act rashly.

Kerry the Pooh: "another mass murder by terrorists. Oh bother. Let's have a smackerel of honey and take a nice nap."

Kery the Pooh, Kerry the Pooh....

Docpro.

Posted by: docpro on October 10, 2004 07:52 PM

I love the part where Kerry answered the question that, in its formation, equated abortion to murder. I thought the distinguished senator was going to burst into flames on the spot.

As for Hillary, right after the debate, I'm on to her. She's not going anywhere. And if she thinks she's going to originate the first ever "Deichstag" at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave, she's crazy. Wait a minute, she IS crazy.

Posted by: kbeam on October 10, 2004 09:32 PM

I'm thinking it may be another "post-election" election. If it isn't a landslide, watch the lawyers pounce on certain states. Maine and Colorado may have their electoral vote allocations taken up in lawsuits. Lots of charges on both sides of voter fraud, disenfranchising stupid people who can't vote properly, questions on new electronic voting machines.

The Loi-yahs on both sides stand ready....

And, Ruminations on the Ruminant (The Hildebeast)

My, the lady is doing well, tactically. One of the few leading Dems not to poison her 2008 chances by being wrong about what she says about Iraq 4 years from now. Keeping her mouth shut - avoiding other Teddy Kennedy type liberal "flames". Not out busting her copiously spread butt campaigning for Kerry, but pulled the Clintonistas back in to give some help to Kerry. So if Kerry wins, he must be most grateful to the leading Dem fundraiser and bailer-out. Perhaps with a SCOTUS seat, with Bubba taking over her Senate Seat. If Kerry loses, the Dems are grateful for all she did and she gets to run in 2008 with a REAL co-president.

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Funniest thing I've read about the Virginia mess. Back when they were hustling the referendum through the assembly both Senators, Warner and Kaine, advised them to go slow and play by the rules. Louise Lucas said she respected them but didn't need advice from the "cuck chair" in the corner. The gerrymandering was overturned and Louise is heading for the big house. Edward G. Robinson voice "where's your cuck now?"
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I posted his post on twitter and it's gotten 25K views so far. Thanks, Smell the Glove

Chris
@chriswithans

"Ahhhhh ahh I put my career on the line for Louise Lucas and Jay Jones thinking they'd vault me into presidential contention and we ended up costing Democrats 20 House seats and unleashing a Reverse Dobbs ahhhhh ahhh"

Forgotten 80s Mystery Click That Sums Up the Democrat Communist Party Today
Something is wrong as I hold you near
Somebody else holds your heart, yeah
You turn to me with your icy tears
And then it's raining, feels like it's raining

TJM wonders about world building in stories, mostly The Hunger Games

"It's f**king f**ked."
-- reportedly a genuine comment offered by a "senior Labour source"
Correction: I wrote that Labour is losing 88% (now 87%) of the seats it is "defending." I think that's wrong. The right way to say it is the seats they are contesting -- that is, they don't necessarily already hold these seats, but they have put up a candidate to run for the seat. It's still very bad but not as bad as losing 87% of the seats they already held.

Basil the Great
@BasilTheGreat

🚨ED MILIBAND [a Minister in Starmer's government] SAYS KEIR STARMER WILL RESIGN AS PRIME MINISTER

He has reportedly reassured Labour MP's that Starmer will be resigning following the disastrous results tonight

It's over

"The end of the two party system in the UK" as first the Fake Conservatives and now Labour chooses political suicide rather than simply STOPPING THE INVASION
Incidentally, the only reason this didn't already happen in the US is because of the Very Bad Orange Man (who is right on 85% of all policy calls and extremely, existentially right on 15% of them)

No political party that is NOT also a doomsday religious cult would EVER choose a cataclysmic loss -- and possible extinction as a party -- to support a toxically unpopular favoritism of NON-CITIZEN ILLEGAL MIGRANTS over actual citizen voters.

Only a cult does this.

Now they've lost 84%.

Annunziata Rees-Mogg
@zatzi
If this continues Labour loses 2,148 seats tonight.

That is much worse than the worst case predictions I’ve seen.

Cataclysmic

Update: They've now lost 88% of the seats they're defending. As I mentioned earlier, I think I heard that London will not bail them out, as many of those Labour seats will probably flip to "Muslim Independent" or Green. Detroit's 5am vote will not save them.

Yup, Labour is losing 80% of its seats...

The British Patriot
@TheBritLad

🚨 BREAKING: Labour have lost 80% of all seats contested as of 2:25 AM.<
br> If this continues, Keir Starmer will be out of office next week.

Reform has surged and projected to pick up between 1700-2100 seats.

Wow, up to 1700-2100 seats. It's not incredible that this is happening. It's incredible that the Davos crowd is so absolutely determined to privilege Muslim "migrants" over the actual native population who elects them, no matter how loudly the natives scream that they want to be prioritized, that they will gladly self-extinguish as a party rather than simply representing the interests of their own voters. Astonishing.
Remember, when they call other people "cultists" -- they are the ones so imprisoned in their social reinforcement and discipline bubbles that they will choose political death rather than dare upset the Karen Enforcement Officers of their cult.
Update: Now they've lost 83% of the seats they were defending.

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges

Reform are basically wiping Labour out in the North. It's not a defeat. It's not even a rout. Labour are simply ceasing to exist.

Nick Lowles
@lowles_nick

Tonight’s results are calamitous for Labour. Not just for Keir Starmer's leadership, but for the very future of the party

STARMERGEDDON: In early returns, Reform gains 135 seats, Labour loses 90, the Fake Conservatives lose 36 (and I didn't even know they could fall any further), the Lib Dems lose 4, and the Greens gain 6. Note that the only other party gaining seats is the Greens and they're only gaining a handful of seats.
Update: Reform now up 145, Labour down 98.
Labour projected to lose Wales -- where they've ruled for 27 years.
Fulton County Georgia just discovered 400 boxes of ballots for Labour
Update: REF +156, LAB -107, CON -45
Brutal: In four out of five council seats where Labour is defending, they've lost. 80%.
I'm sure it's not this simple, but Reform is straight taking Labour's and the "Conservatives'" seats. They've lost almost exactly what Reform gained. If understand this right (and warning, I probably don't), all of London's council seats are up for election, and Labour might lose hugely there, as their old voters abandon them for Reform, Muslim Indenpendents, and the Greens.
REF +190, LAB -134, CON -56.

Updates on the Labour collapse in council elections -- which wags are calling #Starmergeddon -- from Beege Welborne. There are about 5000 seats up for grabs, Labour is expected to lose 1,800, Reform will probably gain 1,580, up from... zero. So this would be more than that.
People claim that while Labour has adopted the Sharia Agenda to appeal to the million Muslims it allowed to migrate to the country, those voters are ditching Labour to vote for the Muslim Independent Party or the Greens. Delicious. This shadenfreude is going straight to my thighs.
Oh, and if Starmer loses about as badly as expected, Labour will toss him out of a window Braveheart style and replace him. He will announce he is resigning to spend more time with his Gay Ukrainian Male Prostitutes.

Media bias and senationalism are as old as, well, the media:

That was written by Denny O'Neill and illustrated by, get this, Frank Miller. Editor to the Stars Jim Shooter was in charge at the time.
I always thought the gag was original to the comic book, but in fact the "Threat or Menace" headline was a satirical joke about media bias and sensationalism for a long while. The Harvard Lampoon used it in a parody of Life magazine: "Flying Saucers: Threat or Menace?"

Hamas is Humiliating Trump's 'Board of Peace'
[Hat Tip: TC] [CBD]

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Podcast: Starting a new season, CBD and Sefton discuss their personal journeys to conservative principles, is Nick Shirley the beginning of a trend?, Iran trying to reignite the war, the Left attacks itself, even on "Best Guitarist" lists, and more!

TJM definitively ranks the films of Billy Wilder, like Some Like It Hot

TJM talks about Billy Wilder