Intermarkets' Privacy Policy Support
Donate to Ace of Spades HQ! Contact
Ace:aceofspadeshq at gee mail.com Buck: buck.throckmorton at protonmail.com CBD: cbd at cutjibnewsletter.com joe mannix: mannix2024 at proton.me MisHum: petmorons at gee mail.com J.J. Sefton: sefton at cutjibnewsletter.com Recent Entries
Tuesday Overnight Open Thread - July 1, 2025 [scampydog]
Big Cats Cafe Quick Hits The Fake Republicans in the Senate Screwed Us and the Fake Republicans in the House Are Complaining They Didn't Screw Us Enough Kristi Noem: We Are Investigating CNN for Promoting an App That Allows Radicals and Criminals to Track Indivdual ICE Agents' Movements Poll: Thomas Massie Would Lose to a Republican Challenger? Trump Tours "Alligator Alcatraz;" Agrees to Let DeSantis Deputize National Guardsmen as Immigration Judges to Speed Up Deportations Jaguar's Sales Drop by 97.5% After Bizarre Gender-Blender Rebranding Campaign Big Unbeautiful Bill Passes Senate with Vance's Tie-Breaking Vote The Morning Rant: Minimalist Edition Absent Friends
Jay Guevara 2025
Jim Sunk New Dawn 2025 Jewells45 2025 Bandersnatch 2024 GnuBreed 2024 Captain Hate 2023 moon_over_vermont 2023 westminsterdogshow 2023 Ann Wilson(Empire1) 2022 Dave In Texas 2022 Jesse in D.C. 2022 OregonMuse 2022 redc1c4 2021 Tami 2021 Chavez the Hugo 2020 Ibguy 2020 Rickl 2019 Joffen 2014 AoSHQ Writers Group
A site for members of the Horde to post their stories seeking beta readers, editing help, brainstorming, and story ideas. Also to share links to potential publishing outlets, writing help sites, and videos posting tips to get published.
Contact OrangeEnt for info:
maildrop62 at proton dot me Cutting The Cord And Email Security
Moron Meet-Ups
|
« Who Wrote It? |
Main
| It Was a Pen »
October 04, 2004
ABC/WaPo Poll: Bush By 5?Geraghty says that the ABC/WaPo poll might have Bush up by five points tomorrow. If true, then it looks pretty good for Bush. That would mean that his support is currently strong enough to resist a poor debate showing (and a good one by his opponent), and there's little that's likely to move more votes between now and election day. (Barring a terrorist attack, etc.) I don't think we have the full story yet -- the full impact of the debate may yet to be felt -- but this just may be a case of the old rule that debates just don't move many votes. Kerry's performance was clearly stronger than Bush's -- but that's still just a performance. No one would vote for Bush just because he could win a game of horse; only a small number of people might become Kerry supporters just because he performed better in a verbal sparring match. It brings to mind a debate that was held at the New School (I think) a long time ago. I think either Hitchens or Sullivan or both defended the war -- before the war, that is -- while some hack leftists gave the Give Peace a Chance spiel. Hitchens/Sullivan were clearly the superior debaters, and clearly had the better arguments and better command of the facts, and yet I'm guessing that that New School audience of very liberal/outright leftist New York intellectuals didn't change their opinion just because Hitchens/Sullivan handed the competition their lunch. People have opinions on these matters already. A good debate performance is good to move some opinions, but most opinions are already firm and only new facts -- not new arguments -- will move them. This brings up my peeve with the LLM always instructing us in that condescendingly pious manner of theirs that "this election ought to be about the issues." I think they say this because they believe that most of us are ignorant and/or stupid, and that if we merely have enough good liberal pedagogy on "the issues," with Dan Rather and Tom Brokaw and Katie Couric patiently explaining to us all the myriad ways in which we are wrong/retarded, we'll suddenly slap our collective hand to our collective forehead and say, "Voila! Now I see what a stupid dick I've been, all along." There's a reason that questions about lying, hypocrisy, inconsistency, etc. -- "character issues" -- are important. It's not because they're necessarily more important than "the real issues" I keep hearing so much about. It's that, contrary to the beliefs of the liberal legacy media and the DNC, the American public already has a fairly good idea where it stands on the "real issues." And so arguing over the "real issues" can only move so many votes -- it's all already baked into the cake. None of these arguments, no matter how well made or eloquently delivered, are new information which can change many minds. Whereas "character issues," such as the SwiftVets charges, are actually a specie of new information. The SwiftVets' charges were new data the public had to process (despite the media's insistence that the public ignore the data entirely). But rehashing "the war was wrong" -- everyone already knows where they stand on this, pretty much. Even the "undecided voters," who pollsters like Frank Luntz usually say are already pretty much decided. They just like calling themselves "undecided," because it makes them feel open-minded and important. Update: The poll is now out. It shows the rumored 51-46-1 split. Bush lost some of his "very enthusiastic" support and Kerry gained some such support. But the horse race continues to show a good Bush lead. posted by Ace at 06:33 PM
CommentsAce, Your earlier pessimism may yet prove well-founded, but I kinda doubt it. If not, aren't all the points you've made in this post exactly the points we optimists have tried to show you ever since the debate? Posted by: Brian B on October 4, 2004 06:51 PM
Your earlier pessimism may yet prove well-founded, but I kinda doubt it. I think my earlier "pessimism" was already well-founded. I called a 2-3 point Kerry bump in the polls, perhaps more, and that's what's come to pass -- a 2-3 point Kerry bump in the polls, perhaps more. I think Bush lost the debate. I don't think there's any question about that. If not, aren't all the points you've made in this post exactly the points we optimists have tried to show you ever since the debate? I don't know. I've said over and over that I don't think that Bush lost the race or anything-- but that public sentiment had shifted. Which I think it has. As far as other arguments, I don't know. I actually haven't read much arguing about the debates. Partly that was because I don't like dwelling on bad news. Posted by: ace on October 4, 2004 07:01 PM
Aww, I really liked Andrew Sullivan before he got off on his gay marriage snit!! If Bush is against gay marriage, could he at least come out in favor of unprotected (bareback as Andy rapturously described it) gay anal sex? It would bring Andrew back into the Big Tent! Posted by: Cedarford on October 4, 2004 07:41 PM
The glowing media coverage of Kerry's debate performance has been eerily similar to the coverage of the Democratic convention. We all know how effective that was. Posted by: Larry Jones on October 4, 2004 07:42 PM
Ace, Quit pulling a Hoke and reach down between your legs and pull your head outta yer rear. People will vote FOR something long before they will vote AGAINST something. Al queri's own people don't like him. They are just against Bush. Come election day the red states will turn out, the blue staters will stay home and drink mad dog. Buck up! Posted by: Midaz on October 4, 2004 08:11 PM
Yeah. The LLM is going to pull every stop for this election, but its not going to matter because people are leaving them in droves. Posted by: Iblis on October 4, 2004 10:48 PM
While Bush is often verbally awkward, and the press loves to quote the latest "Bushism," considser this quote from Senator Kerry (as extracted from a news article): Posted by: Dave Chiriboga on October 5, 2004 09:22 AM
Post a comment
| The Deplorable Gourmet A Horde-sourced Cookbook [All profits go to charity] Top Headlines
NeverTrump Nebraska Congressman Don Bacon throws in the towel, won't seek reelection in 2026
I wonder if he's the one who complained about the BBB imposing work requirements on able-bodied adults without children for Medicaid.
Ever Wonder How The Woke Left Can Be So Obviously Hypocritical And Automatically Reject All Opposing Facts? Below are four short 5 minute videos of author Melanie Phillips explaining why.
The Disturbing Logic Of The Left.***
The Psychology Behind Why the WOKE Left Can't Win Arguments.***
The Bizarre Union of Woke and Jihad.***
Truth is a Right Wing Concept. [dri]
Wow, Katie Perry is having a rough couple of years: like her career, her engagement to Orlando Bloom is now over
The Trump Curse strikes again. She went from an apolitical ditz to a Hillary Clinton Crusader in 2016 and her career bottomed out like Hillary Clinton's blood sugar level after a weekend of vodka and self-pity. The Trump Curse even follows you into space, yo. Or at least into the lower upper atmosphere.
Forgotten 80s Mystery Click, I Can't Believe It's Not Night Ranger Edition
If you would just be sensible You'd find me indispensable I pray deep down to destiny That it places you with me Whoa, wanting you here in the sheets Wandering around incomplete Waiting so long I'm pretty sure I've linked this before but it's a banger.
Republican running for Mitch McConnell's seat literally trashes him in new ad
It's the anniversary of the Biden debate debacle.
Biden's senility becomes undeniable. The Democrats pronounced that he had clearly triumphed in the debate. How CNN reported Biden's "intense" debate prep before the debate and then after. Amy Klobuchar predicted victory. The Washington Examiner looks back at the Night of Great Stuttering.
Kari Lake, just when I think you couldn't get any dumber, you pull a stunt like this, and totally redeem yourself!!!
I think the Democrat is arguing that the political appointees should exercise no control over their rabidly communist VOA employees. This is what they're always arguing -- they stock the bureaucracy with literal communists and then claim that the voters should have no control over these unfirable radicals. Lake offers a for-instance that will appeal to this Democrat of allegedly-suspect bedroom guests.
Senator Rounds invites Trump to "an appreciation event like you've never seen" at the Sturgis Bike Rally
Obviously Trump should go. LOS ANGELES (AP) -- Lalo Schifrin, the composer behind the iconic 'Mission: Impossible' theme and many more film and TV scores, dies at 93. This post will self-destruct in five seconds.
Chuck Schumer hospitalized after experiencing "lightheadness" while attempting to diagram a Kamala Harris sentence
Wait, it says he was supposedly working out at the gym. Sure, whatev's. Maybe he had a fight with Harry Reid's exercise bands. Recent Comments
NemoMeImpuneLacessit[/i][/b][/u][/s]:
"205 [i]so there's an Honest Trailer for Spaceballs ..."
Piper: " 190 Huskies are all drama and yodeling, and once ..." Captain Fantastic : "RIP Jimmah Swagert. It was Jimmah that taught me e ..." mindful webworker - artificially ignorant: "I can't remember where I find things online. Did s ..." gKWVE: "so there's an Honest Trailer for Spaceballs ..." tankdemon : "203 Is a spaceship launch a “shot”? P ..." NemoMeImpuneLacessit[/i][/b][/u][/s]: "Is a spaceship launch a “shot”? ..." Iris: "199 I could generally tell what was AI and what wa ..." Soothsayer: " They remade The Running Man? Arnold ruined so ..." RickZ: "[i]I thought they went teets up in the 80's. Post ..." NemoMeImpuneLacessit[/i][/b][/u][/s]: "I could generally tell what was AI and what was re ..." Ciampino - No brrrrrs: " Did you see the rocket? BEEERRRRRRIES all the ..." Bloggers in Arms
RI Red's Blog! Behind The Black CutJibNewsletter The Pipeline Second City Cop Talk Of The Town with Steve Noxon Belmont Club Chicago Boyz Cold Fury Da Goddess Daily Pundit Dawn Eden Day by Day (Cartoon) EduWonk Enter Stage Right The Epoch Times Grim's Hall Victor Davis Hanson Hugh Hewitt IMAO Instapundit JihadWatch Kausfiles Lileks/The Bleat Memeorandum (Metablog) Outside the Beltway Patterico's Pontifications The People's Cube Powerline RedState Reliapundit Viking Pundit WizBang Some Humorous Asides
Kaboom!
Thanksgivingmanship: How to Deal With Your Spoiled Stupid Leftist Adultbrat Relatives Who Have Spent Three Months Reading Slate and Vox Learning How to Deal With You You're Fired! Donald Trump Grills the 2004 Democrat Candidates and Operatives on Their Election Loss Bizarrely I had a perfect Donald Trump voice going in 2004 and then literally never used it again, even when he was running for president. A Eulogy In Advance for Former Lincoln Project Associate and Noted Twitter Pestilence Tom Nichols Special Guest Blogger Rich "Psycho" Giamboni: If You Touch My Sandwich One More Time, I Will Fvcking Kill You Special Guest Blogger Rich "Psycho" Giamboni: I Must Eat Jim Acosta Special Guest Blogger Tom Friedman: We Need to Talk About What My Egyptian Cab Driver Told Me About Globalization Shortly Before He Began to Murder Me Special Guest Blogger Bernard Henri-Levy: I rise in defense of my very good friend Dominique Strauss-Kahn Note: Later events actually proved Dominique Strauss-Kahn completely innocent. The piece is still funny though -- if you pretend, for five minutes, that he was guilty. The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility The Dowd-O-Matic! The Donkey ("The Raven" parody) Archives
|