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« Who Wrote It? | Main | It Was a Pen »
October 04, 2004

ABC/WaPo Poll: Bush By 5?

Geraghty says that the ABC/WaPo poll might have Bush up by five points tomorrow.

If true, then it looks pretty good for Bush. That would mean that his support is currently strong enough to resist a poor debate showing (and a good one by his opponent), and there's little that's likely to move more votes between now and election day. (Barring a terrorist attack, etc.)

I don't think we have the full story yet -- the full impact of the debate may yet to be felt -- but this just may be a case of the old rule that debates just don't move many votes. Kerry's performance was clearly stronger than Bush's -- but that's still just a performance. No one would vote for Bush just because he could win a game of horse; only a small number of people might become Kerry supporters just because he performed better in a verbal sparring match.

It brings to mind a debate that was held at the New School (I think) a long time ago. I think either Hitchens or Sullivan or both defended the war -- before the war, that is -- while some hack leftists gave the Give Peace a Chance spiel. Hitchens/Sullivan were clearly the superior debaters, and clearly had the better arguments and better command of the facts, and yet I'm guessing that that New School audience of very liberal/outright leftist New York intellectuals didn't change their opinion just because Hitchens/Sullivan handed the competition their lunch.

People have opinions on these matters already. A good debate performance is good to move some opinions, but most opinions are already firm and only new facts -- not new arguments -- will move them.

This brings up my peeve with the LLM always instructing us in that condescendingly pious manner of theirs that "this election ought to be about the issues." I think they say this because they believe that most of us are ignorant and/or stupid, and that if we merely have enough good liberal pedagogy on "the issues," with Dan Rather and Tom Brokaw and Katie Couric patiently explaining to us all the myriad ways in which we are wrong/retarded, we'll suddenly slap our collective hand to our collective forehead and say, "Voila! Now I see what a stupid dick I've been, all along."

There's a reason that questions about lying, hypocrisy, inconsistency, etc. -- "character issues" -- are important. It's not because they're necessarily more important than "the real issues" I keep hearing so much about. It's that, contrary to the beliefs of the liberal legacy media and the DNC, the American public already has a fairly good idea where it stands on the "real issues." And so arguing over the "real issues" can only move so many votes -- it's all already baked into the cake. None of these arguments, no matter how well made or eloquently delivered, are new information which can change many minds.

Whereas "character issues," such as the SwiftVets charges, are actually a specie of new information. The SwiftVets' charges were new data the public had to process (despite the media's insistence that the public ignore the data entirely).

But rehashing "the war was wrong" -- everyone already knows where they stand on this, pretty much. Even the "undecided voters," who pollsters like Frank Luntz usually say are already pretty much decided. They just like calling themselves "undecided," because it makes them feel open-minded and important.

Update: The poll is now out. It shows the rumored 51-46-1 split. Bush lost some of his "very enthusiastic" support and Kerry gained some such support. But the horse race continues to show a good Bush lead.


posted by Ace at 06:33 PM
Comments



Ace,

Your earlier pessimism may yet prove well-founded, but I kinda doubt it. If not, aren't all the points you've made in this post exactly the points we optimists have tried to show you ever since the debate?

Posted by: Brian B on October 4, 2004 06:51 PM

Your earlier pessimism may yet prove well-founded, but I kinda doubt it.

I think my earlier "pessimism" was already well-founded. I called a 2-3 point Kerry bump in the polls, perhaps more, and that's what's come to pass -- a 2-3 point Kerry bump in the polls, perhaps more.

I think Bush lost the debate. I don't think there's any question about that.

If not, aren't all the points you've made in this post exactly the points we optimists have tried to show you ever since the debate?

I don't know. I've said over and over that I don't think that Bush lost the race or anything-- but that public sentiment had shifted. Which I think it has.

As far as other arguments, I don't know. I actually haven't read much arguing about the debates. Partly that was because I don't like dwelling on bad news.

Posted by: ace on October 4, 2004 07:01 PM

Aww, I really liked Andrew Sullivan before he got off on his gay marriage snit!!

If Bush is against gay marriage, could he at least come out in favor of unprotected (bareback as Andy rapturously described it) gay anal sex?

It would bring Andrew back into the Big Tent!

Posted by: Cedarford on October 4, 2004 07:41 PM

The glowing media coverage of Kerry's debate performance has been eerily similar to the coverage of the Democratic convention. We all know how effective that was.

Posted by: Larry Jones on October 4, 2004 07:42 PM

Ace,

Quit pulling a Hoke and reach down between your legs and pull your head outta yer rear. People will vote FOR something long before they will vote AGAINST something. Al queri's own people don't like him. They are just against Bush. Come election day the red states will turn out, the blue staters will stay home and drink mad dog.

Buck up!

Posted by: Midaz on October 4, 2004 08:11 PM

Yeah. The LLM is going to pull every stop for this election, but its not going to matter because people are leaving them in droves.
The polls aren't changing despite Terry MAC DADDY McAuliffe's best shot and tilting them.
Don't worry about W. Put Rather's head on a pike and make the LLM irrelavent.

Posted by: Iblis on October 4, 2004 10:48 PM

While Bush is often verbally awkward, and the press loves to quote the latest "Bushism," considser this quote from Senator Kerry (as extracted from a news article):
"Sen. John Kerry yesterday stood by the global test for pre-emptive action he described in last week's presidential debate, and called President Bush's attack on it a "pathetic" distortion.
"The test I was talking about is a test of legitimacy — not just in the globe, but elsewhere,"
Now if Kerry was Bush, or Quayle, what do you think the MSM would make of that interesting comment??? That Senator Kerry is in touch with the Great Galactic Empire? Beam me up, Scottie!!

Posted by: Dave Chiriboga on October 5, 2004 09:22 AM
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