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October 04, 2004
ABC/WaPo Poll: Bush By 5?Geraghty says that the ABC/WaPo poll might have Bush up by five points tomorrow. If true, then it looks pretty good for Bush. That would mean that his support is currently strong enough to resist a poor debate showing (and a good one by his opponent), and there's little that's likely to move more votes between now and election day. (Barring a terrorist attack, etc.) I don't think we have the full story yet -- the full impact of the debate may yet to be felt -- but this just may be a case of the old rule that debates just don't move many votes. Kerry's performance was clearly stronger than Bush's -- but that's still just a performance. No one would vote for Bush just because he could win a game of horse; only a small number of people might become Kerry supporters just because he performed better in a verbal sparring match. It brings to mind a debate that was held at the New School (I think) a long time ago. I think either Hitchens or Sullivan or both defended the war -- before the war, that is -- while some hack leftists gave the Give Peace a Chance spiel. Hitchens/Sullivan were clearly the superior debaters, and clearly had the better arguments and better command of the facts, and yet I'm guessing that that New School audience of very liberal/outright leftist New York intellectuals didn't change their opinion just because Hitchens/Sullivan handed the competition their lunch. People have opinions on these matters already. A good debate performance is good to move some opinions, but most opinions are already firm and only new facts -- not new arguments -- will move them. This brings up my peeve with the LLM always instructing us in that condescendingly pious manner of theirs that "this election ought to be about the issues." I think they say this because they believe that most of us are ignorant and/or stupid, and that if we merely have enough good liberal pedagogy on "the issues," with Dan Rather and Tom Brokaw and Katie Couric patiently explaining to us all the myriad ways in which we are wrong/retarded, we'll suddenly slap our collective hand to our collective forehead and say, "Voila! Now I see what a stupid dick I've been, all along." There's a reason that questions about lying, hypocrisy, inconsistency, etc. -- "character issues" -- are important. It's not because they're necessarily more important than "the real issues" I keep hearing so much about. It's that, contrary to the beliefs of the liberal legacy media and the DNC, the American public already has a fairly good idea where it stands on the "real issues." And so arguing over the "real issues" can only move so many votes -- it's all already baked into the cake. None of these arguments, no matter how well made or eloquently delivered, are new information which can change many minds. Whereas "character issues," such as the SwiftVets charges, are actually a specie of new information. The SwiftVets' charges were new data the public had to process (despite the media's insistence that the public ignore the data entirely). But rehashing "the war was wrong" -- everyone already knows where they stand on this, pretty much. Even the "undecided voters," who pollsters like Frank Luntz usually say are already pretty much decided. They just like calling themselves "undecided," because it makes them feel open-minded and important. Update: The poll is now out. It shows the rumored 51-46-1 split. Bush lost some of his "very enthusiastic" support and Kerry gained some such support. But the horse race continues to show a good Bush lead. posted by Ace at 06:33 PM
CommentsAce, Your earlier pessimism may yet prove well-founded, but I kinda doubt it. If not, aren't all the points you've made in this post exactly the points we optimists have tried to show you ever since the debate? Posted by: Brian B on October 4, 2004 06:51 PM
Your earlier pessimism may yet prove well-founded, but I kinda doubt it. I think my earlier "pessimism" was already well-founded. I called a 2-3 point Kerry bump in the polls, perhaps more, and that's what's come to pass -- a 2-3 point Kerry bump in the polls, perhaps more. I think Bush lost the debate. I don't think there's any question about that. If not, aren't all the points you've made in this post exactly the points we optimists have tried to show you ever since the debate? I don't know. I've said over and over that I don't think that Bush lost the race or anything-- but that public sentiment had shifted. Which I think it has. As far as other arguments, I don't know. I actually haven't read much arguing about the debates. Partly that was because I don't like dwelling on bad news. Posted by: ace on October 4, 2004 07:01 PM
Aww, I really liked Andrew Sullivan before he got off on his gay marriage snit!! If Bush is against gay marriage, could he at least come out in favor of unprotected (bareback as Andy rapturously described it) gay anal sex? It would bring Andrew back into the Big Tent! Posted by: Cedarford on October 4, 2004 07:41 PM
The glowing media coverage of Kerry's debate performance has been eerily similar to the coverage of the Democratic convention. We all know how effective that was. Posted by: Larry Jones on October 4, 2004 07:42 PM
Ace, Quit pulling a Hoke and reach down between your legs and pull your head outta yer rear. People will vote FOR something long before they will vote AGAINST something. Al queri's own people don't like him. They are just against Bush. Come election day the red states will turn out, the blue staters will stay home and drink mad dog. Buck up! Posted by: Midaz on October 4, 2004 08:11 PM
Yeah. The LLM is going to pull every stop for this election, but its not going to matter because people are leaving them in droves. Posted by: Iblis on October 4, 2004 10:48 PM
While Bush is often verbally awkward, and the press loves to quote the latest "Bushism," considser this quote from Senator Kerry (as extracted from a news article): Posted by: Dave Chiriboga on October 5, 2004 09:22 AM
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Yacht or Nyacht?
With a combined score of 49.5 on Yacht or Nyacht, I'd say this one is a "Nyacht." No Hoe Snow snap. Not bouncy. Pretty dreary. No smooth groove. You won't be able to snort cocaine out of the cleavage of a "Naval Mabel" or "Poopdeck Patty." Or even if you do, it will be half-hearted at best.
From Instapundit, a Free Beacon Fact Check:
Joe Biden, nominal president of the United States, sat down with the ladies of The View for an interview on Wednesday. "It's like having one of the Beatles at the table," co-host Sarah Haines said as the audience roared and her colleagues cackled. I guess that's true if you're talking about the Beatles. But individual members of the Beatles did some decent stuff in the 80s. Kyrsten Sinema
Classics of Yacht Rock Mystery Click
Oh but it's all right Once you get past the pain You'll learn to find your love again So keep your heart open This is a fantastic (casual) driving song, when you're actually driving a little below the speed limit because you don't really have anywhere to be. Going forward, if we have any arguments about what is or what is not Yacht Rock, we can just consult the Yacht or Nyacht? website, which has ranked hundreds of songs according to their Yacht Quotient (YQ). I can see this website stopping arguments, fistfights, and formal duels.
In solidarity with the MSM, Rich Lowry and National Review vilified the Covington Kids as racist agitators back in 2019. Now, it’s Rich Lowry being canceled for an accidental slip of the tongue that sounded like a forbidden word. There’s a lesson here for the Polite Right, but they won’t learn it. [Buck]
Forgotten 70s Mystery Click: Pop Princess Edition
'Cause it gets me nowhere to tell you no/ And it gets me nowhere to make you go From the same album
Are Lebanese citizens making up songs praising the #pager bombs?
Olympics judo star Nemanja Majdov banned for 5 months after making sign of cross at Paris Games [CBD]
The Lost Classics of Yacht Rock
You know you can't fool me I've been loving you too long It started so easy You want to carry on I'm not sure this is even Yacht Rock. This might just be very soft rock. I can't see myself sniffing cocaine from a Boat Hoe's cleavage to this song, which is the primary criterion of Yacht Rock. But I think this song more crosses from the shallows of soft rock to the cresting majesty of Yacht Rock. This is definitely bouncy enough for Hoe Snow. Very smooth, a little folky, a little jazzy. It's got that Hoe Snow snap.
From Andycanuck: Hezballah members reporting for work today, a little bit skittish about entering the code on an electronic keypad lock
I don't know if this is real. It's certainly accurate -- no one in Hezballah is happy to be handling any kind of electronic device today.
FAA fines SpaceX $633K for acting without its permission "These fines therefore are simply because FAA management has hurt feelings because SpaceX wouldn't wait for it to twiddle its thumbs for a few more weeks. The fines also suggest that FAA management is either being pressured to hinder SpaceX's commercial operations by higher ups in the White House, or that management itself is trying to exert more power over the company, for apparently very petty reasons." [CBD]
1) Individuals, on camera and audio, stating what they saw is "unconfirmed" with "no specific reports"
Rep. James Comer writes letter to criminal Christopher Wray, seeking information about Tim Walz's many, many suspicious trips to China
The FBI investigated whether Trump was a Russian agent based upon... nothing. Think they're investigating Walz, or nah?
Sopranos vs. Star Trek
Thanks to "NYT c*cksuckers" Recent Comments
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Thanksgivingmanship: How to Deal With Your Spoiled Stupid Leftist Adultbrat Relatives Who Have Spent Three Months Reading Slate and Vox Learning How to Deal With You You're Fired! Donald Trump Grills the 2004 Democrat Candidates and Operatives on Their Election Loss Bizarrely I had a perfect Donald Trump voice going in 2004 and then literally never used it again, even when he was running for president. A Eulogy In Advance for Former Lincoln Project Associate and Noted Twitter Pestilence Tom Nichols Special Guest Blogger Rich "Psycho" Giamboni: If You Touch My Sandwich One More Time, I Will Fvcking Kill You Special Guest Blogger Rich "Psycho" Giamboni: I Must Eat Jim Acosta Special Guest Blogger Tom Friedman: We Need to Talk About What My Egyptian Cab Driver Told Me About Globalization Shortly Before He Began to Murder Me Special Guest Blogger Bernard Henri-Levy: I rise in defense of my very good friend Dominique Strauss-Kahn Note: Later events actually proved Dominique Strauss-Kahn completely innocent. The piece is still funny though -- if you pretend, for five minutes, that he was guilty. The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility The Dowd-O-Matic! The Donkey ("The Raven" parody) Archives
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