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« A Dukakian Fall? | Main | Top Ten Signs That Zell Miller is On Frickin' Fire »
September 02, 2004

No Cowbell on Friday?

Over at FreeRepublic, someone said that Jeff Greenfield reported the rumor -- just a rumor -- that Friday's August job figures would be bad. As in, bad for the country. Bad for Bush.

That could just be a planted rumor, designed to lower expectations. But now I'm worried.

One might even say I'm outraged, chagrined, sick to my stomach, "gob-smacked," appalled, horrified, and filled with "heart-ache" that I can't "quite dislodge from my consciousness."

A source tells me:

But seriously, I'm not sure if you knew this or not, but President Bush
will have the August employment data before he gives his speech tonight.
Common practice is for the Bureau of Labor Statistics to send a scrambled fax
to the Council of Economic Advisers on Thursday afternoon, ahead of the
Friday morning release. The CEA then of course gets it to the President,
SecTreas, and Fed Chairman ASAP, and so they are all in the know.

I don't have a story to point you to, unfortunately. This is something
that I have picked up from economics research I read as part of my job.

The questions:
1) Does Bush 'shade' his speech tonight depending on the jobs data?
2) Since this is common knowledge (that Bush will have the data ahead of time), how will the lefties spin it?

I wonder if some of the speakers (especially Dick Cheney) already knew the numbers when they spoke. I'm not sure how early this stuff gets circulated among the administration (I just wrote back to ask). If it only gets released the night before, then ignore what comes next.

I'm fearing that we've already seen "shading" that may indicate a stinker of a jobs report.

None of the speakers, to my knowledge, has mentioned Bush's recent job creation*; to the extent they mention the economy, they mention low interest rates, expanding manufacturing, and home ownership. The fact that they seem to be avoiding mentioning jobs at all tells me they don't want to emphasize that particular datum, which means they might be expecting bad news on that front tomorrow morning.

As my personal hero Dan Rather says:

Courage.


* Someone may have mentioned it. I haven't watched gavel-to-gavel. If any of the featured, prime-time speakers mentioned it, they didn't do so very prominently, because I just have no recollection of it at all.

Unrelated Rumor Update: FreeRepublic is quite the rumor mill.

This is just a rumor, and we've heard this crap before, and there's no sourcing here whatsoever.

I think it's bullshit. I'm posting it, however, because I'm irresponsible and attention-craving.

Update: Questions Answered.

Morpheus:

The CEA gets the fax late Thursday afternoon from the BLS (again, this is standard practice - I'm not sure if they might 'break' from that practice and give the admin an even earlier heads-up) so I doubt they have the actual numbers in front of them yet. It does take some work by the BLS to compile the data into usable statistics. However, some of the data this week, such as the ISM manufacturing survey, the Chicago PMI, and today's jobless claims numbers, have been a bit softer and point to possible disappointment for the August payroll numbers.

The Republicans may have used these stats as reason to shade away from job creation as a theme.

Larry Jones:

The White House receives the numbers on the Thursday evening before the Friday release. They're not floating around anywhere before that. Second, while Greenfield may end up being correct, he has no clue what he's talking about. There is absolutely no way for him to know what's going to happen tomorrow.

Answered, but not perfectly consistent. Morpheus thinks there's a chance that the numbers may have been circulated earlier, although that's not the practice, and Larry seems to rule that possibility out.

Either way, though, it seems like Jeff Greenfield doesn't know what he's talking about.

It's reassuring to have one's deeply-held beliefs ocassionally reassured like that.

Update: Larry clarifies: He said no way, he meant no way.


posted by Ace at 02:37 PM
Comments



Ace,

The CEA gets the fax late Thursday afternoon from the BLS (again, this is standard practice - I'm not sure if they might 'break' from that practice and give the admin an even earlier heads-up) so I doubt they have the actual numbers in front of them yet. It does take some work by the BLS to compile the data into usable statistics. However, some of the data this week, such as the ISM manufacturing survey, the Chicago PMI, and today's jobless claims numbers, have been a bit softer and point to possible disappointment for the August payroll numbers.

The Republicans may have used these stats as reason to shade away from job creation as a theme.

Posted by: morpheus on September 2, 2004 03:20 PM

I'm so saturated with Bucephalus Marshall's horseshit that I almost hope the Bin Laden isn't true.

Posted by: Allah on September 2, 2004 03:23 PM

Not me, Allah. I'd love it if they announce Bin Laden's capture right before the President speaks.

1) It'll drive the Democrats into a fit of Rumplestilskinean proportions (i.e., they may just stamp their feet and disappear into the earth forever).

2) Some people won't question the timing and will vote for Bush.

3) Some people will question the timing and vote for Bush anyway. If he can control events like that, damn straight we better keep him as President. Either he's a genius or fortune smiles on him like nobody in history. (There's also the possibility, of course, that he's sold his soul to the devil, and I guess that could be a downside but maybe just for him personally.)

Posted by: Nicholas Kronos on September 2, 2004 03:35 PM

The biggest problem I have with believing the link is that I don't think ObL can be in the Pakistani tribal areas. It is accepted that ObL requires dialysis, so he can't be in some cave. Neither can he be constantly moving himself, his posse and his big ass dialysis machine on a daily basis. He has to restrict himself to places with predictable electircal power to run the machine. I don't think that the Pakistani FATA meet these conditions, and even if they did I don't think he could hide himself and his dialysis machine.

I think ObL is in a villa in Saudi Arabia.

Posted by: Dave Pasquino on September 2, 2004 03:49 PM

The White House receives the numbers on the Thursday evening before the Friday release. They're not floating around anywhere before that. Second, while Greenfield may end up being correct, he has no clue what he's talking about. There is absolutely no way for him to know what's going to happen tomorrow.

Posted by: Larry Jones on September 2, 2004 04:03 PM

Again, there is absolutely no way that the numbers are floating around right now. Wall Street and the global financial markets would be going haywire if the data were out. Remember, they don't keep these data so incredibly secure because of politics, they do it because of their potential effects on financial markets.

Posted by: Larry Jones on September 2, 2004 04:40 PM

After all, this is an August jobs report, so the earliest the White House could get any indication from the BLS of what the number will be would be Sept. 1, right?

Posted by: morpheus on September 2, 2004 04:51 PM

I find the way these numbers are generated more than a little misleading. They leave out completely the considerable number of people who now earn a living off the books thanks to the Internet. Try to figure just how many people peope are making a living on eBay without ever registering a DBA or going through much of the other formalities. Heck, in the year 1999 most of my gross revenue for the year was from eBay and I wasn't doing anywhere near the numbers of a serious eBay maven.

Posted by: Eric Pobirs on September 2, 2004 05:15 PM

All this talk of receiveng the numbers early reminds me of the Orange futures from "Trading Places."
Could be ripe for a satire piece...?

Posted by: Nathan on September 2, 2004 06:29 PM
Posted by: Harlan Pepper on September 3, 2004 08:58 AM
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