Intermarkets' Privacy Policy
Support


Donate to Ace of Spades HQ!


Contact
Ace:
aceofspadeshq at gee mail.com
Buck:
buck.throckmorton at protonmail.com
CBD:
cbd at cutjibnewsletter.com
joe mannix:
mannix2024 at proton.me
MisHum:
petmorons at gee mail.com
J.J. Sefton:
sefton at cutjibnewsletter.com


Recent Entries
Absent Friends
Captain Whitebread 2026
Jon Ekdahl 2026
Jay Guevara 2025
Jim Sunk New Dawn 2025
Jewells45 2025
Bandersnatch 2024
GnuBreed 2024
Captain Hate 2023
moon_over_vermont 2023
westminsterdogshow 2023
Ann Wilson(Empire1) 2022
Dave In Texas 2022
Jesse in D.C. 2022
OregonMuse 2022
redc1c4 2021
Tami 2021
Chavez the Hugo 2020
Ibguy 2020
Rickl 2019
Joffen 2014
AoSHQ Writers Group
A site for members of the Horde to post their stories seeking beta readers, editing help, brainstorming, and story ideas. Also to share links to potential publishing outlets, writing help sites, and videos posting tips to get published. Contact OrangeEnt for info:
maildrop62 at proton dot me
Cutting The Cord And Email Security
Moron Meet-Ups

Texas MoMe 2026: 10/16/2026-10/17/2026 Corsicana,TX
Contact Ben Had for info





















« Another "Suspiciously Timed" Intelligence Coup | Main | The Secret Martyrdom of Margaret Cho »
August 06, 2004

Jobs Figures: Garbage In, Garbage Out?

The payroll jobs survey isn't just a raw survey. It's actually adjusted to a degree by seasonal/monthly modifications in an effort to "tune out" predictable cyclical noise. Those adjustments are, of course, based on assumptions. If the assumptions fail, the numbers won't be accurate.

This guy has been complaining about these adjustments for a while, and not just when they hurt Bush. I remember reading him some time ago arguing that Bush's big-growth numbers in the Spring were also partly phatasmal, based on sketchy adjustments which might or might not bear any relationship to reality. Hack that I am, I discounted him at the time; I didn't need him raining on my cowbell parade.

But he predicted yesterday that these adjustments would "make" July a bad job-growth month, at least on paper, just as they had last July. (January, too, is always adjusted into a poor-job-growth month.)

I'm not sure what to make of all this. Do we really have any good idea at all how many jobs are being created or lost at any given time? How much of this is all just back-of-the-envelope guesswork?

We do know, with nearly perfect accuracy, how many people are signing up for jobless benefits at any time. That's not a poll; that's just counting.

If the number of people signing up for unemployment benefits keeps dropping, doesn't that suggest that more people are finding work?

Hat tip to Kausfiles.

Bill Quick has a more rigorous analysis of this phenomenon.


posted by Ace at 04:21 PM
Comments



Check out the post at BillHobbs.com for a better perspective on the job numbers, especially the total number of people working now as opposed to when President Bush took office. I am optimistic about the econonmy and job growth; however, today's job numbers are going to hurt the president.

Posted by: Dittybopper on August 6, 2004 05:49 PM

"If the number of people signing up for unemployment benefits keeps dropping, doesn't that suggest that more people are finding work?"

Not necessarily. It could mean people failing to find work _plus_ giving up on the dole (or running out of entitlement) so that they disappear from the ranks of the officially "unemployed".

Not saying that's the case, just another possible interpretation.

Posted by: Doug on August 6, 2004 05:50 PM

Unemployment down and new job creation allegedly down is indeed odd. The 32,000 number is from the corporate survey. The BLS report, however, includes a household survey as well, and those numbers showed a jump of almost 700,000.

The variance could be, as Doug mentions, people giving up and falling off the list. But I don't think so - the unemployment percentage isn't just for people still entitled to the dole. It's far broader than that.

Also, "discouraged workers" is standard response to drops in unemployment % from those who are politically inconvenienced by improvements in that number (not Doug, by the way - just generally). It's a fuzzy number, unsupported by hard statistics. So, oddly enough, is the number of people who fall of the unemployed list by starting their own businesses as 1099 contractors and the like. I tend to ignore both numbers, since they're both put forth by people trying to prove a political point, and neither is supportable. And, if you ignore both, the simple fact remains:

Unemployment is down, by more than the 32,000 number would come close to indicating. The truth is something higher, and the market will realize that as early as next week, in my humble opinion.

Posted by: Patton on August 6, 2004 09:32 PM

what if any significance does this have on your assesment.

"Total employment rose by 629,000 to 139.7 million in July, ...."

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

any? or it it still dire?

Posted by: James Caldera on August 6, 2004 11:26 PM

Crudele is FOS--he hasn't been right about anything in so long it's a wonder the Post continues to publish him. Also, the household survey still looks good, and a lot of folks are dropping out of the workforce. I know a few--they simply don't have to work. Their spouses are making good coin and taxes are lower.

I refuse to believe people are getting discouraged and leaving the labor pool--it's simply counter-intuitive. The want-ads are healthy and in Bergen County there are Help Wanted signs everywhere.

Hell, I can't find anybody to clean my pool or polish my spats!

Posted by: spongeworthy on August 9, 2004 10:34 AM
Posted by: Roy on November 4, 2004 07:44 AM
Post a comment
Name:


Email Address:


URL:


Comments:


Remember info?








Now Available!
The Deplorable Gourmet
A Horde-sourced Cookbook
[All profits go to charity]
Top Headlines
Funniest thing I've read about the Virginia mess. Back when they were hustling the referendum through the assembly both Senators, Warner and Kaine, advised them to go slow and play by the rules. Louise Lucas said she respected them but didn't need advice from the "cuck chair" in the corner. The gerrymandering was overturned and Louise is heading for the big house. Edward G. Robinson voice "where's your cuck now?"
Posted by: Smell the Glove

I posted his post on twitter and it's gotten 25K views so far. Thanks, Smell the Glove
Chris
@chriswithans

aaahahaa.jpg


"Ahhhhh ahh I put my career on the line for Louise Lucas and Jay Jones thinking they'd vault me into presidential contention and we ended up costing Democrats 20 House seats and unleashing a Reverse Dobbs ahhhhh ahhh"
Forgotten 80s Mystery Click That Sums Up the Democrat Communist Party Today
Something is wrong as I hold you near
Somebody else holds your heart, yeah
You turn to me with your icy tears
And then it's raining, feels like it's raining
"It's f**king f**ked."
-- reportedly a genuine comment offered by a "senior Labour source"
Correction: I wrote that Labour is losing 88% (now 87%) of the seats it is "defending." I think that's wrong. The right way to say it is the seats they are contesting -- that is, they don't necessarily already hold these seats, but they have put up a candidate to run for the seat. It's still very bad but not as bad as losing 87% of the seats they already held.
Basil the Great
@BasilTheGreat

🚨ED MILIBAND [a Minister in Starmer's government] SAYS KEIR STARMER WILL RESIGN AS PRIME MINISTER

He has reportedly reassured Labour MP's that Starmer will be resigning following the disastrous results tonight

It's over
"The end of the two party system in the UK" as first the Fake Conservatives and now Labour chooses political suicide rather than simply STOPPING THE INVASION
Incidentally, the only reason this didn't already happen in the US is because of the Very Bad Orange Man (who is right on 85% of all policy calls and extremely, existentially right on 15% of them)
No political party that is NOT also a doomsday religious cult would EVER choose a cataclysmic loss -- and possible extinction as a party -- to support a toxically unpopular favoritism of NON-CITIZEN ILLEGAL MIGRANTS over actual citizen voters.

Only a cult does this.
Now they've lost 84%.
Annunziata Rees-Mogg
@zatzi
If this continues Labour loses 2,148 seats tonight.

That is much worse than the worst case predictions I’ve seen.

Cataclysmic

Update: They've now lost 88% of the seats they're defending. As I mentioned earlier, I think I heard that London will not bail them out, as many of those Labour seats will probably flip to "Muslim Independent" or Green. Detroit's 5am vote will not save them.
Yup, Labour is losing 80% of its seats...
The British Patriot
@TheBritLad

🚨 BREAKING: Labour have lost 80% of all seats contested as of 2:25 AM.<
br> If this continues, Keir Starmer will be out of office next week.

Reform has surged and projected to pick up between 1700-2100 seats.


Wow, up to 1700-2100 seats. It's not incredible that this is happening. It's incredible that the Davos crowd is so absolutely determined to privilege Muslim "migrants" over the actual native population who elects them, no matter how loudly the natives scream that they want to be prioritized, that they will gladly self-extinguish as a party rather than simply representing the interests of their own voters. Astonishing.
Remember, when they call other people "cultists" -- they are the ones so imprisoned in their social reinforcement and discipline bubbles that they will choose political death rather than dare upset the Karen Enforcement Officers of their cult.
Update: Now they've lost 83% of the seats they were defending.
(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges

Reform are basically wiping Labour out in the North. It's not a defeat. It's not even a rout. Labour are simply ceasing to exist.


Nick Lowles
@lowles_nick

Tonight’s results are calamitous for Labour. Not just for Keir Starmer's leadership, but for the very future of the party
STARMERGEDDON: In early returns, Reform gains 135 seats, Labour loses 90, the Fake Conservatives lose 36 (and I didn't even know they could fall any further), the Lib Dems lose 4, and the Greens gain 6. Note that the only other party gaining seats is the Greens and they're only gaining a handful of seats.
Update: Reform now up 145, Labour down 98.
Labour projected to lose Wales -- where they've ruled for 27 years.
Fulton County Georgia just discovered 400 boxes of ballots for Labour
Update: REF +156, LAB -107, CON -45
Brutal: In four out of five council seats where Labour is defending, they've lost. 80%.
I'm sure it's not this simple, but Reform is straight taking Labour's and the "Conservatives'" seats. They've lost almost exactly what Reform gained. If understand this right (and warning, I probably don't), all of London's council seats are up for election, and Labour might lose hugely there, as their old voters abandon them for Reform, Muslim Indenpendents, and the Greens.
REF +190, LAB -134, CON -56.
Updates on the Labour collapse in council elections -- which wags are calling #Starmergeddon -- from Beege Welborne. There are about 5000 seats up for grabs, Labour is expected to lose 1,800, Reform will probably gain 1,580, up from... zero. So this would be more than that.
People claim that while Labour has adopted the Sharia Agenda to appeal to the million Muslims it allowed to migrate to the country, those voters are ditching Labour to vote for the Muslim Independent Party or the Greens. Delicious. This shadenfreude is going straight to my thighs.
Oh, and if Starmer loses about as badly as expected, Labour will toss him out of a window Braveheart style and replace him. He will announce he is resigning to spend more time with his Gay Ukrainian Male Prostitutes.
Media bias and senationalism are as old as, well, the media:
spidermanthreatormenace.jpg

That was written by Denny O'Neill and illustrated by, get this, Frank Miller. Editor to the Stars Jim Shooter was in charge at the time.
I always thought the gag was original to the comic book, but in fact the "Threat or Menace" headline was a satirical joke about media bias and sensationalism for a long while. The Harvard Lampoon used it in a parody of Life magazine: "Flying Saucers: Threat or Menace?"
CJN podcast 1400 copy.jpg
Podcast: Starting a new season, CBD and Sefton discuss their personal journeys to conservative principles, is Nick Shirley the beginning of a trend?, Iran trying to reignite the war, the Left attacks itself, even on "Best Guitarist" lists, and more!
Recent Comments
Huck Follywood: "Robert Allerton Cushman III, the son of a Harvard- ..."

[/b][/i][/u][/s]I used to have a different nic: "[i]Monica Crowley, the U.S. government's chief of ..."

San Franpsycho: "The entire leftist project is an effort to satisfy ..."

Mumbling under my breath : "Maybe women judges aren't such a great idea. ..."

Tom Servo: "Trump appears to have truly believed this would al ..."

fd - I Am Enough: ""Erroneously. And you can believe that if you want ..."

Rev. Wishbone: "I'd bet if you gave Tucker a good slap, he wouldn' ..."

Smell the Glove: "AOC doesn't want to be president she wants to be s ..."

NaCly Dog: "Smell the Glove This is happening a [i]lot[/i] ..."

VDH - Cruelty Rating Systems: "Good morning, J.J. Good morning, Horde. ..."

[/b][/i][/u][/s]I used to have a different nic: "[i]IRS Erroneously Awarded Millions in Tax Breaks ..."

Smell the Glove: "The white woman who prosecute her attacker because ..."

Bloggers in Arms
Some Humorous Asides
Archives