Check out the post at BillHobbs.com for a better perspective on the job numbers, especially the total number of people working now as opposed to when President Bush took office. I am optimistic about the econonmy and job growth; however, today's job numbers are going to hurt the president.

"If the number of people signing up for unemployment benefits keeps dropping, doesn't that suggest that more people are finding work?"

Not necessarily. It could mean people failing to find work _plus_ giving up on the dole (or running out of entitlement) so that they disappear from the ranks of the officially "unemployed".

Not saying that's the case, just another possible interpretation.

Unemployment down and new job creation allegedly down is indeed odd. The 32,000 number is from the corporate survey. The BLS report, however, includes a household survey as well, and those numbers showed a jump of almost 700,000.

The variance could be, as Doug mentions, people giving up and falling off the list. But I don't think so - the unemployment percentage isn't just for people still entitled to the dole. It's far broader than that.

Also, "discouraged workers" is standard response to drops in unemployment % from those who are politically inconvenienced by improvements in that number (not Doug, by the way - just generally). It's a fuzzy number, unsupported by hard statistics. So, oddly enough, is the number of people who fall of the unemployed list by starting their own businesses as 1099 contractors and the like. I tend to ignore both numbers, since they're both put forth by people trying to prove a political point, and neither is supportable. And, if you ignore both, the simple fact remains:

Unemployment is down, by more than the 32,000 number would come close to indicating. The truth is something higher, and the market will realize that as early as next week, in my humble opinion.

what if any significance does this have on your assesment.

"Total employment rose by 629,000 to 139.7 million in July, ...."

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

any? or it it still dire?

Crudele is FOS--he hasn't been right about anything in so long it's a wonder the Post continues to publish him. Also, the household survey still looks good, and a lot of folks are dropping out of the workforce. I know a few--they simply don't have to work. Their spouses are making good coin and taxes are lower.

I refuse to believe people are getting discouraged and leaving the labor pool--it's simply counter-intuitive. The want-ads are healthy and in Bergen County there are Help Wanted signs everywhere.

Hell, I can't find anybody to clean my pool or polish my spats!

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