The polls are still not juicy at this point. Kerry should be in a better position at the start of his convention. He should be ahead by 5-10 points in the polls by next week. The support level of both candidates tells me that people will start to pay attention after labor day. Information will be better as we approach late October. This is not new, it is usually like this.I cannot call it yet, but a challenger has to convince voters why they should vote for them.

I dunno...According to Wonkette, Sen. Kerry's "big snake" may have helped him get his hands on Teresa's billions.

Went to see Spidey 2 yesterday, and saw a trailer for Anacondas: The Hunt for the Blood Orchid. Which is the answer to the question "Is it possible for a movie to get worse by removing JLo from the cast?"

From the trailer, that answer is yes.

A 70 foot anaconda? Didn't Marlon Perkins have a show on one of those?

Jim? Jim? You ok?

We'll be right back to watch more about this fascinating creature, but first, a word from the nice folks at Mutual of Omaha.

jim??

You know a few months ago, I was sure that it would be a Bush blowout. The idea of a "President Kerry," made me laugh. When Kerry started to dominate the primaries, I was practically giddy. Sure, it wasn't quite as fun as a Howard Dean ticket would have been, but I remember the last time the Dems put a liberal Mass politician on the ballot against a popular, "cowboy" president. Can you say Dukakis?

But although Bush should be blowing it out at this point, and maybe if he'd actually led on some of the important domestic issues he would be. But instead he tried to pull off the sneaky triangulation shit, which was a complete failure. Clinton could pull it off, because his constitutents are liberals, which is just a fancy way of saying "crack whores who keep smiling as long as they're getting their bennies."

Now I'm just trying to think of the upside of a Kerry presidency. Maybe the Republicans in the Senate will somehow locate their balls, and stop fretting about which D.C. cocktail parties they are or are not being invited to, and actually do something to stop the democrats from controlling things, even though they're (technically) in the minority. Maybe spending will go down. Maybe the federal government will shut down again (that was fun the last time around). Sure, we won't have control of the judicial nominations, but even when they were in control of both the legislative and executive branches, the Pubs still couldn't figure out a way to get the conservative judges through (repeat after me . . . FILIBUSTER, and not the girlie-man, gentlemen's version, but the actual, phone-book-reading, keep-Ted-Kennedy-away-from-his-cocktail-hour version).

Did Karl Rove suddenly lose all ability to run a campaign? I don't think so, either. Lance Armstrong knows how to prepare for the Tour de France so he peaks at just the right time, and I think Karl Rove knows how to do that for President Bush, as well.
Look, we handed over the govt of Iraq less than a month ago. We just got major evidence supporting Bush's 16 words and discrediting several major sources for Bush detractors...and news sources are slowly acknowledging it.
President Bush has time to hit all these things hard after labor day, and Kerry's campaign managers don't seem skilled enough to get him to respond quickly to defuse the hits Bush is gonna get in.
Heck, I think Kerry is going to permanently lose 3-5 points every time he debates Bush, but he can't get elected if he refuses to debate.
No, Kerry's problems are legion; it's a target-rich environment for Karl Rove. Just like in fishing, you let 'em run the line out so you can set the hook deeper, and Karl is letting Kerry and the liberal press yank plenty of rope out with which to hang themselves. It's gonna be brilliant.

Ace,
Dude...you've got this all wrong. The reason the Jon Voit thing is so hopeful is because his daughter is the VERY HOT Angelina Jolie. And if 30 years of survey research has revealed anything, it is that children usually identify with their parents political leanings.

Ergo, Angelina Jolie is probably a HOT, LUSCIOUS, SUPPLE, [insert adjectives] Republican.

Time to change the sidebar photo again.

But wasn't the coal mining Jon Voight of Zoolander a portrayal of a Robert "KKK" Byrd dimmocrat?

Jon Voight also played an enterprising young Republican in Urban Cowboy.

As far as "What the hell do you do with a 70 foot long anaconda?" goes, putting aside the mom joke for a second, I would imagine a 70 foot anaconda would be worth a hell of a lot of money.

Normal-sized snakes fetch up tp $20,000, for 18' rarities. I would imagine that the world's biggest and rarest snake could fetch half a mill.

You can't be serious. You can get a half a mill for a snake?

To do what with it?

This election is a test of the media's impact on election. An incumbent Republican with a booming economy should win in a landslide. Bush is probably not going to do that.

Still, if Bush wins handily we can discount the media's effect. If the election is close, or if Kerry wins, then all of us bloggers, despite our best efforts, were in no way able to balance the propaganda coming from the mainstream press.. (and/or Bush and Rove really are idiots. No fucking way this should be close.)

If Bush loses, the only thing Republicans should concern themeselves with over the next 4 years is how to counter the media bias.

You can't be serious. You can get a half a mill for a snake?

To do what with it?

(Still avoiding a mom joke)

Michael Jackson paid a shitload of money for a pet giraffe, if that puts you on the right learning track of why people will pay a lot of money for the biggest snake in the world.

Yeah, so we got John Voight on our side. Hell of a lot of good he did them in Deliverance. Just sat there and watched the hillbillies go after poor Ned Beatty...

I'm sure there's a political analogy here somewhere. Wonkette?

Seriously, though I had heard somewhere he was a nutball liberal. I think there is some serious cyncial triangulation going on to sell the Manchurian Candidate--including a hillaryesque character and advertising on right-wing blogs (like IMAO). But the recent review Drudge had up called it more (left)partisan than Fear&hate 911. And Streep confirms it's a Bush-bash.

I call it the Passion effect--Hollywood now realizes conservatives spend money and go to the movies. So rather than ignoring us completely, they now try to trick our money out of us. Same thing appened recently with that Christian high-school movie they wrote about in the Weekly Standard. It was marketed as a pro-religion movie, even though it wasn't. That's progress, folks!

You can get a Leno and Letterman appearance, sure, but it's not as if you can get rich by owning a big snake.

John Holmes disagrees. Or rather, the ghost of John Holmes does.

Margaret: Kerry will never be ten points ahead of Bush. There aren't ten points to be had. If Kerry hits a perfect fly ball over the center-field wall he can walk away with five. But if he pulls it left he'll never recover and if he sends it right he will be in for alot of Naderite damage control. Bush is the only one who can walk away from his convention with ten points and I'm pretty confident he will. People underestimate Bush. Always. It's part of his strategy. Go back and read the editorials and reportage on Bush v Gore. Before the debates Bush was a no-hoper. After the debates he was a solid contender. We all know who won. Add to this that the map has changed since then and Bush has an even better chance now. And then there's Rove. The guy is a fucking genius in both strategy and tactics. He has helped Bush to play a HOSTILE press during his entire administration. Don't forget these folks voted for Gore and they are just as pissed as he is. I could go on and on about this for hours so here's the bottom line. November 3 - Bush electoral landslide; Popular majority.

Also: Matthew Dowds memo about a fifteen point lead for Kerry after his coronation is an attempt to lock the election up before August. It was a long shot and the press didn't bite like Rove wanted them to, but it tells me they're confident this thing is already won. Like in chess: Mate in three, do you want to play again?

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