Allah blogs again???!!!

Allahu Akbar!!!!

Nothing like seeing Tel Aviv will be nuked before going to bed. Ah sweet dreams.

Let's see...criticize them for their indecisiveness or praise them for their consistency...?

Well, they were right about the lack of WMD last time...

In February, guess who's [coming to dinner] the president-country of the Security Council?

That's right, it's the United States of America.
What does that mean? I have no idea. I just thought it would interest y'all to know.

January's president is the Republic of Tanzania.
The other members of the Security Council include:
Argentina
China
Congo
Denmark
France
Ghana
Greece
Japan
Peru
Qatar
Russian Federation (not associated with Star Trek)
Slovakia
United Kingdom

Each Council member has one vote. Decisions on procedural matters are made by an affirmative vote of at least nine of the 15 members. Decisions onsubstantive matters require nine votes, including the concurring votes of all five permanent members. This is the rule of "great Power unanimity", often referred to as the "veto" power.

Under the Charter, all Members of the United Nations agree to accept and carry out the decisions of the Security Council. While other organs of the United Nations make recommendations to Governments, the Council alone has the power to take decisions which Member States are obligated under the Charter to carry out.

Guys, France has to wait for the check to clear before they can do anything. Don't you know the least bit about international finance? Marianne may be what she is (girl's got needs, ya know?) but she ain't dumb.

France said on Friday that it favours a step-by-step approach over Iran's contested nuclear program and that any sanctions request at this stage would be premature.

France then laughed obnoxiously and jumped a jet for Monaco while snorting coke off a whore's ass with a rolled up hundred Iranian Rial note.

Condi Rice has "backpeddled" in exactly the same way...
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20060113/pl_afp/usirannuclearpoliticsrice

Condi Rice has "backpeddled" in exactly the same way...

I hope that's not the result of some ill-considered arrangement with France that's going to result in them pulling the rug out from under us. Again.

Predictions of a future with Iran? I know one.

Day One - The War With Iran

By Douglas Herman
A Rense.com Exclusive
1-9-5

The war began as planned. The Israeli pilots took off well before dawn and streaked across Lebanon and northern Iraq, high above Kirkuk. Flying US-made F-15 and F-16s, the Israelis separated over the mountains of western Iran, the pilots gesturing a last minute show of confidence in their mission, maintaining radio silence.

Just before the sun rose over Tehran, moments before the Muslim call to prayer, the missiles struck their targets. While US Air Force AWACS planes circled overhead--listening, watching, recording--heavy US bombers followed minutes later. Bunker-busters and mini-nukes fell on dozens of targets while Iranian anti-aircraft missiles sped skyward.

The ironically named Bushehr nuclear power plant crumbled to dust. Russian technicians and foreign nationals scurried for safety. Most did not make it.

Targets in Saghand and Yazd, all of them carefully chosen many months before by Pentagon planners, were destroyed. The uranium enrichment facility in Natanz; a heavy water plant and radioisotope facility in Arak; the Ardekan Nuclear Fuel Unit; the Uranium Conversion Facility and Nuclear Technology Center in Isfahan; were struck simultaneously by USAF and Israeli bomber groups.

The Tehran Nuclear Research Center, the Tehran Molybdenum, Iodine and Xenon Radioisotope Production Facility, the Tehran Jabr Ibn Hayan Multipurpose Laboratories, the Kalaye Electric Company in the Tehran suburbs were destroyed.

Iranian fighter jets rose in scattered groups. At least those Iranian fighter planes that had not been destroyed on the ground by swift and systematic air strikes from US and Israeli missiles. A few Iranian fighters even launched missiles, downing the occasional attacker, but American top guns quickly prevailed in the ensuing dogfights.

The Iranian air force, like the Iranian navy, never really knew what hit them. Like the slumbering US sailors at Pearl Harbor, the pre-dawn, pre-emptive attack wiped out fully half the Iranian defense forces in a matter of hours.

By mid-morning, the second and third wave of US/Israeli raiders screamed over the secondary targets. The only problem now, the surprising effectiveness of the Iranian missile defenses. The element of surprise lost, US and Israeli warplanes began to fall from the skies in considerable numbers to anti-aircraft fire.

At 7:35 AM, Tehran time, the first Iranian anti-ship missile destroyed a Panamanian oil tanker, departing from Kuwait and bound for Houston. Launched from an Iranian fighter plane, the Exocet split the ship in half and set the ship ablaze in the Strait of Hormuz. A second and third tanker followed, black smoke billowing from the broken ships before they blew up and sank. By 8:15 AM, all ship traffic on the Persian Gulf had ceased.

US Navy ships, ordered earlier into the relative safety of the Indian Ocean, south of their base in Bahrain, launched counter strikes. Waves of US fighter planes circled the burning wrecks in the bottleneck of Hormuz but the Iranian fighters had fled.

At 9 AM, Eastern Standard Time, many hours into the war, CNN reported a squadron of suicide Iranian fighter jets attacking the US Navy fleet south of Bahrain. Embedded reporters aboard the ships--sending live feeds directly to a rapt audience of Americans just awakening--reported all of the Iranian jets destroyed, but not before the enemy planes launched dozens of Exocet and Sunburn anti-ship missiles. A US aircraft carrier, cruiser and two destroyers suffered direct hits. The cruiser blew up and sank, killing 600 men. The aircraft carrier sank an hour later.

By mid-morning, every military base in Iran was partially or wholly destroyed. Sirens blared and fires blazed from hundreds of fires. Explosions rocked Tehran and the electrical power failed. The Al Jazeerah news station in Tehran took a direct hit from a satellite bomb, leveling the entire block.

At 9:15 AM, Baghdad time, the first Iranian missile struck the Green Zone. For the next thirty minutes a torrent of missiles landed on GPS coordinates carefully selected by Shiite militiamen with cell phones positioned outside the Green Zone and other permanent US bases. Although US and Israeli bomber pilots had destroyed 90% of the Iranian missiles, enough Shahabs remained to fully destroy the Green Zone, the Baghdad airport, and a US Marine base. Thousands of unsuspecting US soldiers died in the early morning barrage. Not surprisingly, CNN and Fox withheld the great number of casualties from American viewers.

By 9:30 AM, gas stations on the US east coast began to raise their prices. Slowly at first and then altogether in a panic, the prices rose. $4 a gallon, and then $5 and then $6, the prices skyrocketed. Worried motorists, rushing from work, roared into the nearest gas station, radios blaring the latest reports of the pre-emptive attack on Iran. While fistfights broke out in gas stations everywhere, the third Middle Eastern war had begun.

In Washington DC, the spin began minutes after the first missile struck its intended target. The punitive strike--not really a war said the harried White House spokesman--would further democracy and peace in the Middle East. Media pundits mostly followed the party line. By ridding Iran of weapons of mass destruction, Donald Rumsfeld declared confidently on CNN, Iran might follow in the footsteps of Iraq, and enjoy the hard won fruits of freedom.

The president scheduled a speech at 2 PM. Gas prices rose another two dollars before then. China and Japan threatened to dump US dollars. Gold rose $120 an ounce. The dollar plummeted against the Euro.

CNN reported violent, anti-American protests in Paris, London, Rome, Berlin and Dublin. Fast food franchises throughout Europe, carrying American corporate logos, were firebombed.

A violent coup toppled the pro-American Pakistan president. On the New York Stock Exchange, prices fell in a frenzy of trading--except for the major petroleum producers. A single, Iranian Shahab missile struck Tel Aviv, destroying an entire city block. Israel vowed revenge, and threatened a nuclear strike on Tehran, before a hastily called UN General Assembly in New York City eased tensions.

An orange alert in New York City suddenly reddened to a full-scale terror alarm when a package detonated on a Manhattan subway. Mayor Bloomberg declared martial law. Governor Pataki ordered the New York National Guard fully mobilized, mobilizing what few national guardsmen remained in the state.

President Bush looked shaken at 2 PM. The scroll below the TV screen reported Persian Gulf nations halting production of oil until the conflict could be resolved peacefully. Venezuelan president, Hugo Chavez, announced a freeze in oil deliveries to the US would begin immediately. Tony Blair offered to mediate peace negotiations, between the US and Israel and Iran, but was resoundingly rejected.

By 6 PM, Eastern Standard Time, gas prices had stabilized at just below $10 a gallon. A Citgo station in Texas, near Fort Sam Houston Army base, was firebombed. No one claimed responsibility. Terrorism was not ruled out.

At sunset, the call to prayer--in Tehran, Baghdad, Islamabad, Ankara, Jerusalem, Jakarta, Riyadh--sounded uncannily like the buzzing of enraged bees.

----------------------------------------------------

USAF veteran, Douglas Herman correctly predicted the aftermath of the attack on Iraq in his column: Shock & Awe Followed by Block-To-Block. A Rense contributer, he is the author of The Guns of Dallas, available at Amazon.com.

All this talk of sanctions... America's banker, Hu Jintao, will never allow military attacks on China's primary foreign supplier of oil.

It's still about the oil.

I actually have a guy at my site arguing that Iran having nukes would be a good thing. He thinks Israel and Iran would settle down into a mutally assured destruction relationship and since the US wouldn't invade a nuclear Iran, it would usher in a new era of peace. I'm guessing he hasn't read any of the articles lately where the Iranian president thinks that his country's destruction in nuclear fire would pave the way for the return of the Mahdi and the end of the world and all, which for them is a good thing. Also, I'm guessing that he doesn't know that the policy of MAD only works when both sides actually want to live.

I actually have a guy at my site arguing that Iran having nukes would be a good thing.

Another indication of how deeply BDS has affected the left. Could you have imagined any scenario in which they would support nuclear proliferation? And after 30 years of criticizing MAD, now they want to bring it back?

Yeah, that must be liberating, when you have no principles and all. Heh.

I don't get it, what is this a fantasy history site? What am I supposed to learn from all these vaporings?

I don't get it, what is this a fantasy history site? What am I supposed to learn from all these vaporings?

You ought to read Herman's prediction of the attack on Baghdad, which he claimed would parallel the siege on Stalingrad - it's available in the supposedly accurate Shock and Awe Followed by Block to Block essay.

Fergeson's Fantasy, The Great War of 2007, receives the airing out such vaporous musings disguised as deep analysis deserve... See comment #3 by Michael Herdegen.

http://www.rantburg.com/poparticle.php?ID=139802&D=2006-01-15&HC=4

Ferguson claims that a passive treatment of the Iran situation may lead to a much worse confrontation after Iran produces nuclear weapons. Herman claims that an attack on Iran could be very costly for America.

Both cautionary tales could be true, though neither is particularly convincing as written. But Ferguson's, at least, leaves us with a usable theme - diplomacy and negotation may not be the wisest course in a time-critical scenario involving a foe willing to dissemble to advance its cause.

It figures that france would go and do this and then chiraq wonders why he is so low in the polls

Sure, tubino, that's how an attack on Iran would go. If the entirety of CentCom suffered a bout of terminal stupidity.

First off, there hasn't been a single case of an exocet making it through a Phalanx CWIS, much less the newer RAM. Secondly it's going to take quite a bit more than 1 exocet to bring down a carrier. Have you seen one of those things? They're fucking HUGE. Unlike a tanker they're mostly air, and they're designed to be shot at.

Secondly if the US strikes Iran, Israel won't. There will be no need and the political problems of Jews attacking Muslims will make life more difficult. Only if the US does nothing will Israel strike.

Thirdly any strike against Iran will be lead by tomahawk strikes to degrade Iranian air defense. They won't happen at dawn, they'll strike at 3 a.m. By dawn there won't be a single functional airstrip in the country, and most of the radar sites will be offline. The first wave of fighters will be armed with HARM missiles to send down the beampath of anything lighting up US planes. About the same time the tomahawks are launched the US will establish CAP over the straits. The 5th fleet won't abandon the Gulf, but will establish convoys through the bottlenecks, using the Aegis system to mitigate the threat to ASM, whose launching sites will be placed on the priority target list. All US and allied bases in the region will have Patriot block 4 batteries defending them against ballistic missiles (in terminal phase there's no difference between a Sahaab and a Scud).

By the end of 3 days Iran won't have any ability to project power beyond their borders. Then we begin striking their nuclear research sites.

I'm not going to try and predict the political/economic repercussions of these strikes, but given how badly this guy fucked up the military description I don't place any credence in his prognostication abilities. Maybe if he had served in a real branch of the military.

Here's a fine site that features Mr. Herman's work.

Do a google search on this guy, tiny tube.

Take a good look at who your friends are.

I'm really impressed.

Here's a quote from one of his masterpieces:

Are the big Hollywood producers and directors--Jerry Bruckheimer, James Cameron, Steven Spielberg, Michael Bay, Ridley Scott--closely inspecting the scripts for just the right blend of action, suspense and individual acts of heroism, while deleting altogether the details of complicity between government agencies, the dereliction of duty between high officials, the suspicious actions of Israeli "allies," the curious aspect of building collapses, and the inconvenient aspect of Muslim hijackers who never appeared on passenger lists?

Here's a kindred spirit for you, tiny tube:

The Corpse of Joe Vialls

He believes in everything you believe in.
Or at least he did, before he fell off his perch.

If anyone cares, I have bloviated at length upon this subject on my own blog. Sooner or later: it will be war.

So which fantasy gets your little pecker harder, tubino, the one you just quoted, or the idea that the civilized world just does nothing and lets the mullah's obliterate Israel?

Tough call, I know.

Well, they were right about the lack of WMD last time...

ah, no. pre-war French intelligence said Saddam had stockpiles of WMDs.

As did German and Russian intelligence.

Thanks for playing, here's your very own AceofSpadesHQ, the Board Game™.

B Moe: tubino quoting Douglas Herman's scenario is fair enough. It's on topic, and Herman further provides the "sequel" to Ferguson's "2007-2011 War" speculations on how such a war might actually start.

I do wish that Herman hadn't posted it on rense.com, whose front page dabbles in Holocaust denial. Admittedly if it hadn't been published by rense, tubino probably wouldn't have found out about it...

B Moe: tubino quoting Douglas Herman's scenario is fair enough.

I don't think anybody questioned whether quoting Herman was topical (although normally an excerpt is sufficient). We *are* questioning its accuracy, the credentials of its author, and what it is supposed to mean as far as our policy towards Iran goes.

I think Herman's home on rense.com is appropriate. He believes in the Oliver Stone version of the Kennedy assassination, as well as a number of other conspiracy theories. And as far as I can tell, Herman's military predctions are no more accurate than Ace's football predictions.

Herman's military predctions are no more accurate than Ace's football predictions

That's what we call a two-fer, right there.

tubino:

If you are interested, most of the negative effects of striking Iran you seem to be concerned about can be avoided quite easily - by hitting Iran with nuclear weapons before they can hit us. 500 or so nukes on Iran will solve the Iranian problem, and serve to warn other countries what we are capable of.

Damn, Battle of the Pyramids beat me to it.....

War with Iran; Day 1(...a different & shorter version)

0300: One hundred 100 kiloton nuclear missiles inpact Iran.
0300-ad infinitum: No response of ANY sort has been detected from Iran; ......news at eleven.....

(commercial break for advertisement sponsered by Kentucky Fried Chicken.)

If anyone cares, I have bloviated at length upon this subject on my own blog. Sooner or later: it will be war.

FYI, when Monty says "at length," he's not kidding. But even though I don't agree with him, it is a very interesting and informative read.

FYI, when Monty says "at length," he's not kidding

Huhh heh heh u huhh

Tubino, some fucking manners? There is simply no need to post such a long excerpt.

Oy, Monty! You're my hero!

Threats of Angry Stares Withdrawn, Iranians Heave National Sigh of Relief.