as an amateur Iraq political analyst, I seemed to notice something about the Iraqis I met: they either liked the guys with the American flags on our shirts, or they didn't. wasn't much ambivalence.

I've been hearing about this civil war that was supposed to happen in 2003, while I was still there, then in the fall, when there was that vote, then in January...then there was supposed to be another one a few days ago. and, as I predicted in 2002, there still ain't another civil war.

there won't be a civil war 'til there's no US troops there. I'll be really surprised if there is, because there's nothing happier that a TC who has freedom to call his own shots.

now, about the party politics...yeah? and? that's EXACTLY what politics is about.

I think the Iraqi civil war is another myth of the left. Something that sounds ominous and hinting towards our eventual defeat and current impotence to do things right. Sorta like the draft...

Anyway, I think the Iraqis have had enough war and death. They will be able to get along well enough. This is based on the idea that most of the bad stuff going on is committed by foreigners. But who knows, maybe the idea of driving across the desert to kill Sunnis appeals to people.

Second, these guys who are Islamists (even though Iraq was so secularist that Al Qaeda never operated there) elected politicians with Islamic beliefs. Not to sound flippant, but there are many types of religious politicians. You got the "I go to black churches" type like Kerry, you got the "religion means a lot to me, but I got a country to run" like Bush, and then you got Ayatollahs. I imagine that, just like most countries, these politicians are not head choppers or Shariasts. Maybe, they just happen to reflect that they are in an Islamic country and are therefore followers of Islam?

Having lost on the battle-field, our enemies are now going to try to destroy Iraq from within the political system. They won't succeed, but they will try, and we need to expect it and understand it.