I had a friend from Hungary tell me about 6 months ago that China would be our next big problem. She had NO doubt.

This looks pretty bad.

I've spent some time working in Taiwan, have had an opportunity to listen to views on China and their future.

Opinions seems evenly split between those who favor separation, and those who favor leaving everything just the way it is.

It's troubling to see China's aggressive espionage, and it is as dangerous as you suggest.

The biggest problem China faces in pulling in the diamond of Taiwan is how to assert control without destroying the economic engine that makes it so valuable.

Probably why China has thrown lots of money (including Taiwanese investment) into building their industries. They'd love to replicate Taiwan's success. They can probably do it too.

It would be nice if we had a competent intelligence agency, wouldn't it?

I take some consolation in the knowlege that whereas intelligence is a tactical advantage, it's not generally the deciding factor. Long term, a broken system like China's cannot defeat a functional system like America's, no matter how good their spies are. The USSR had better intelligence than us, too.

I'm not trying to dismiss all this as trivial. In fact, it's terrifying. But we're not all doomed, either.

Total war with China would be unbelievably bad. We would all suffer immensely. It's hard to imagine what it would be like.

We obviously can't let China just mess up the entire world. So, there are some lines that they cannot cross without war breaking out. (War which they would lose, but at immense cost to us.) But the scary thing is that we don't really know where those lines are, and neither do they.

Are we willing to go to war for Taiwan? Are you? Am I? I don't really know. We've made the threat, and none of us really knows whether or not we actually mean it. Let's hope that China decides that we absolutely do mean it, because if they ever decide that we don't, it's either goodbye to Taiwan or goodbye to our peaceful American lifestyles, depending on whether or not China read us correctly.

I dunno, maybe I am not up to date on fascist military technology, but I am pretty sure that China doesn't have enough of the good stuff to do anything. It would be different if their army could swim further than 25 meters.

Again, based on my own limited guesswork, I don't see how China has a realistic expectation of invading Taiwan. Or if they get pissed at us, what they would do. What, invade North Korea or Russia? Maybe swim to Japan too?

Is Taiwan worth it? I am inclined to protect the few real democracies out there. Especially one that has a vibrant capitalist market.

Yeah, it's that damn island that's fuckin everything up.

I'm not one of those that sees China's emergence as a threat. Frankly, it'd be a boon to have one billion plus people come online in the world economy, with all the research and technical advancements that many capitalist brains can give. We're all better off.

The problem, though, is that they're still a fascist state. That's not an empty slur. Do a cool headed examination and it's the most appropriate word. Behind the talk of nighclubs, and growing consumer culture, they're still a one-party state, tossing people in prison, executing people for their dangerous bad thoughts and speech.

People like that Barnett guy say, essentially, give 'em Taiwan. China's capitalaist growth will necessiatate freedom.

I agree with that last part. I'm not down with that cynical-sophisticate line where China is supposedly finding it's own way, that their population may well settle on go-go capiltalism under fascism in the long term. I doubt it. A taste of freedom changes what you're satisfied with elsewhere in your life.

But does that mean we turn our back on Taiwan? Say screw you, screw your freedom? Stability and the long term uber alles? I thought we were done with that Realpolitik shit. I hoped we were.

Still though? Nuclear war with China over Taiwan? There ain't no answers on this one.

First off, it's Nationalist China, not Taiwan.
They're the ones who will return to power when the ChiCom system finally collapses. They are worth backing and protecting.
Secondly, we should treat the Red Chinese as the enemy that they are. A very public political and economic stand will assist the internal foes of the regime. Communism cannot long survive with the capitalism that's going on there.
Thirdly, everyone at the CIA needs to be sent to re-education camp to be reminded for whom they work.

Dr. Symes,

Yes, we are going to war, even nuclear if necessary, over Taiwan. It will be rough, but the PRC will cease to exist and in its place a new Warring States period will replace it.

If the US lets Taiwan get overrun, you'll get the same problems as the French are having in the Parisian suburbs and the New Orleans government got when they let looters loot. The Chinese Communist Party, no stranger to killing millions of people at a time, would feel unrestrained and run amok in East Asia. Our ally Japan would slide into neutralism and South Korea will swing to the PRC. These are bad things even if unsustainable by the PRC in the long run.

I won't even get into the inspiration it would provide to the Islamofascists...

Not to be paranoid or anything, but our enemies wherever they are, are waiting for the moment we show weakness. Letting a successful democracy fall to the Red Chinese, no matter how capitalistic they have become, would make our situation much more complicated and dangerous.

Therefore, an invasion of Taiwan is practically an automatic casus belli.

Didn't we used to execute people for this sort of thing? Rosen-something?

I've been thinking a bit lately on how inappropriate the comparisons of Bush to Reagan have been. His presidency has seemed much closer to Truman's in most ways. And here comes another parallel event. It would be a poor comment on what decades of leftist influence have done to us if we fail to respond decisively to this kind of espionage once it has been detected.

It would be different if their army could swim further than 25 meters.

A major focus of the PRC order of battle for the past 10 years has been rectifying their long standing troop transport/amphibious problem. To a large degree they have been successful.

Today, they probably have enough transport capability to launch an invasion.

The USA desperately needs about 10 small titanium hulled diesel/electric subs in its inventory. Right now, we have zero and the nukes are too noisy.

Thank you, Bill Clinton. Burn in hell.

OT -

A
club that has our name written all over it. Check out Wisconsin. Lol!

To those who thought Billy Bub was prudent in stifling the CIA into nothingness and cutting back all phases of the military (especially R & D), I concur completely with "someone". I hope he has not crippled our country beyond repair.

Then there's the next thought: Hillary in '08? I think not, since she probably goaded Billy Bub into his hits on intelligence and military because his thought stream was concentrated on cigars and blue dresses...

Anyone know a good chinese-language learning course?
As a member of the US Military, I'm very sure I'm gonna need it before I retire.
I just hope they let us finish in the middle east first.
-And Europe is in for a rude wake-up call because when the Dragon Slipper Drops, Their bases will close as the whole US Military is relocated to SouthEast Asia.

Got just the place for you EbeneezerSquid! My Alma Mater; North Vietnam language class of '73-'74 :)

This is a very bad situation. China could probably take Taiwan now, in an amphibious/airborne invasion without too much trouble. Even without these espionage revelations, we would have had a very hard time stopping them. Now I am not sure that we can protect Taiwan at all, at least not without using nukes.

Let's have all of our electronics and computer parts manufactured in their sphere of influence. That way they can manufacture the hardware with something like a Y2K bug, say the middle earth 4Q USA bug. That'll fool em! Another worm of Clintonian proportions.

how much the Clintons make on these deals?

To EricTheRed21:

Hi I'm from SouthEast Asia and quite frankly I think you're just a paranoid asshole. The Chinese Communist Party, no stranger to killing millions of people Where the fuck you get that from? How about your ally Japan? Or is it more convenient to leave that out cuz they're your ally?

And have you ever been to Tawian? Do you really think they prefer to break away from China? I mean, have you ever been to the ground at all? I have, and the Taiwanese people -- peasants, villagers, taxi-drivers et al -- would rather keep the status quo than throw confetti at the American troops. Just because your media tend to portray a one-sided view doesn't mean the real thing. What do you really know about ASIA? Nothing.

And to EbeneezerSquid:

Oh, so after you lot are done conquering the Middle east, you're gonna park your warring asses in Asia?

Uncle Sam is in the middle of two wars, has his warships all over the planet, and here he is scared stiff of China's emergence; Rumsfeld can only harp on China's increasing military spending insead of checking his own balance sheet.

Let me tell you something: Asia -- maybe except maybe the Japanese -- is much more comfortable with China's rise than America's dominance of the region. We're just waiting for that day when we can do away with you lot.

I'm not even from China but like the rest of the world I think you guys are really pissing us off. Badly.

Oh yeah and please stuff that 'liberation of lesser countries' back down your throats. (Or is that expanding your sphere of influence by wars and aggressive actions)

Democracy is not a populist whore, ya know?

Kai says " I think you're just a paranoid asshole" and then finishes with "We're just waiting for that day when we can do away with you lot." Hmmmm, interesting...

"We're just waiting for that day when we can do away with you lot."

It's funny how Americans don't feel this way about SE Asians who come to America in droves. What are you, Kai, racist against whites? Do you actually support the Chinese totalitarian state (like how they interrgate, er ,beat to death, Christians and imprison the fulong gong?

I have never been to SE Asia, but I did speak with a diplomat from Taiwan once who said that most Taiwanese would hate to be part of the PRC and how they find the American presence more preferrable.

Love how the tough talk manages to ignore that the US economy is kept going by the Chinese contribution to the $2 BILLION /DAY borrowed by the US.

Republican borrow-and-spend recklessness is tilting the balance of power -- toward China.

Thanks, George, thanks Grover, thanks to all the Bush team.

Like Reo, I don't think China has to be feared, but a little dose of reality on the part of the US in adapting to a multi-polar world would NOT be a bad thing.

The Chinese Communist Party, no stranger to killing millions of people Where the fuck you get that from?

Right here, dipshit. 40 million killed by Mao and his stooges, not counting 2.5 million in the Chinese civil war and another half million or more in Tibet.

The Chinese Communists have more blood on their hands than any other group in history. Though if you add Hitler and Stalin together, they come close.

Nice smack down Pixy. Kai might be forgiven for his ignorance if he grew up in a country that rewrote history as a matter of government policy. Tubino, on the other hand, is just an ignorant asshat who either chose not to learn any history or just chooses to ignore it so it doesn't interfer with his worldview. I suspect the latter.

Very Nice, Pixy. One other thing Mao had in common with Stalin was that he was so certain in the 'rightness' of his Marxist worldview that he didn't care about how many he killed or died under his power since it all would be for the better in the long run. So Stalin allowed 5-6 million Ukrainians to starve to death in the 1930s, and in the 1960s, Mao allowed 20 million Chinese to starve to death when he tried to collectivize the economy.

Granted, Mao's successors are not nearly as bad as Mao. But what makes China such a threat is that there is no political mechanism in place (that I know of) that will prevent another Mao from gaining power in China. In America, you have democracy, checks and balances, separation of powers, term limits, the Bill of Rights, etc. China has none of these.

Andy: It's interesting how you refer to only the first and last sentence of what I said, and then draw your conclusion. Do you read only the first and last paragraph of every book or news article or do you even read at all?

fasterplease: Oh that so? Do you have any SE Asian friends? But anyway if Americans don't feel that way about us, maybe it's becuz we're almost always gainfully employed, and that we also don't impose our ideologies on whoever, wherever we go?

Also, in case you didn't notice, I was speaking in terms of security and troops, not Americans per se or even whites. So don't be so quick to dish out your racist accusations -- your great 'equalizer' -- if you can't read properly.

Like I said, I'm not from China and I do not have any overt affection for her. . but hey didn't your gov't do exactly the same thing (interrgate, beat to death, muslims in some cases) in Gitmo?! What right have you to comment on China's totalitarianism? Because you really, er, dig human rights and your brand of democracy? So why don't you do what you preach, hang out some placards and start protesting somewhere for the Gitmo prisoners?

And so you did speak with a Taiwanese DIPLOMAT (note: not civilian) probably from the incumbent party who likely never have integrated themselves with their communities, and told you what he thought? Of course if I were to speak with Bush now, he'd probably tell me the war in Iraq was going great, wouldn't he?

Oh by the way, from what I see, you guys don't have to worry about any intelligence leaks in your country; you've got your Cheneys and Roves for that.

Pixy: Thanks, bitch. I know that's really alot compared to how many POWs were starved and killed by American troops, and how many will be in the future. Keep it up! You'll be nearly there.

Kai might be forgiven for his ignorance if he grew up in a country that rewrote history as a matter of government policy.

Fuck off, brewfan. I'm not even from China. But that just exacerbates the anti-American sentiments brewing here in Asia, and the rest of the world, doesn't it. And I suspect it's due to ignorant rednecks like you.

Rewrote history?

You guys mean China's -- and Japan's? But of course we should just close an eye on Japan's war-time actrocities becuz they're America's wonderful and subservient ally and they keep coming up with those wonderful cars and gadgets.

China? They're only good at producing cheap stuff and labor and causing budget deficits in the US when you guys have 0% savings.

Kai
"we also don't impose our ideologies on whoever, wherever we go." I'm sure there are a lot of Christians and Tibetans who wouldn't agree with that.

Anyway, as far as your lame Gitmo analogy goes, something happened on September 11, 2001. Not sure if you remember, but our country was attacked. We are at war. The vast majority of people detained at Gitmo were illegal aliens anyway. Which means we had the legal right to detain or deport them before 9-11. Many of them also are terrorists or people who planned to do harm to the US. Further, many of those folks are treated a heck of a lot better than people in Chinese prisons. Didn't you hear about the Chechnians prisoners who wrote home about how they DIDN'T want to leave Gitmo because they were treated better there than in the home countries? Or the innocent Afghani youth who was imprisoned there, released, and sent home bragging that the Americans taught him to read? Please send me similar heartwarming stories coming from any of the PRC dungeons.

Also, Christians are oppressed in China en masse and they never slammed airliners into buildings. These are innocent folks the PRC wants to squelch whereas many of the people in Gitmo are not so innocent.

No one is denying that the Japanese were bastards before and during WWII. It's just that now they are a parliamentary democracy and an free society to boot. I really respect the Japanese for what they've done in such a short time.

Finally, if America is so onerous, why is it that so many of your gainfully employed Chinese choose to come to America whereas very very few Americans choose to live in China? Answer: America is a better and more free country than China. Do your homework, pal.

You obviously can't run with the big doggies, so all you can do is sit on your porch and bark.

So, this worthless fucking BOLO is going to come here and tell us all how it is. O.K., kai, I'll bite:

When confronted with numbers that prove your utter stupidity, you retort with, "I'm sure that Americans have killed just as many P.O.W.'s. Really? PROVE IT. I want to see a fucking link to a statistic, ANY STATISTIC that shows where American troops STARVED P.O.W.'s. Any. And as for the statement about Gitmo, do you have any idea what the FUCK you are even talking about?

But I guess your little head cannot comprehend things like facts and logic, so I'll give you a free lesson:

America: Holds suspected terrorists for questioning in a place where they are given three hots and a cot, a copy of the Q'uaran, (which is even ceremoniously clensed before offered to the detainee), and a prayer message played over the loudspeaker 5 FUCKING TIMES A DAY so as not to anger the poor Islamist. After these poor terrorists have settled in, interrogators begin questioning, in which the detainee is subjected to horrifying things like Christina Aguellara's voice, wearing underwear on their head, and having to answer questions by a..(My god, the HORROR) A WOMAN!

PRC: Never even presumed anything but guilty, these poor bastards are lucky enough to experience Chinese interrogation

Yeah, kai. I see what you mean. We Amerikkkans are soo cruel. Why can't we be more like SE Asia?

Veritas

Why can't we get a decent class of troll in here? I've been hoping for a step up, but Kai is several rungs down. If Tubino had any intellectual honesty, *he* would be hammering on Kai as well.

Geoff,
God gave tubby a choice between intellectual honesty and a direct telepathic link to Kos' talking points.

I think we know which one he chose.

Republican borrow-and-spend recklessness is tilting the balance of power -- toward China.

Who is holding whose money? The power tilts in the opposite direction, stud.

Kai:

How about your ally Japan? Or is it more convenient to leave that out cuz they're your ally?

Back when Japan was killing large numbers of people, they were not our allies. We dropped some nuclear bombs on them to make them stop.

We freed SE Asia from Japanese imperialism.

I have, and the Taiwanese people -- peasants, villagers, taxi-drivers et al -- would rather keep the status quo than throw confetti at the American troops.

Guess what? The American people don't want war with China, either. We prefer the status quo, too. But if the status quo comes to an end, it won't be because of us; it'll be because China invades Taiwan. And in that case, it'll be a choice between throwing confetti at American liberators or Chinese conquerors. The Taiwanese have made their preference in that matter quite clear.

Let me tell you something: Asia -- maybe except maybe the Japanese -- is much more comfortable with China's rise than America's dominance of the region. We're just waiting for that day when we can do away with you lot.

This is just silly. It may be true in some circles of university students, there as it is here, but it is completely untrue about Asian societies at large. The democratic SE Asian nations enter defense and intelligence-sharing agreements with America, not China. As far as trade goes, America trades with China, too. So?

And skip the silly "you don't know anything about Asia!" nonsense. You don't speak for all Asians. I used to live in SE Asia, and I know from firsthand experience that you're spouting nonsense.

I love it when you guys bring the smack down.

"Do you have any SE Asian friends?"

Try family members. ASShat.

Kai,

OK, since you addressed me directly I'll bite.

First of all, I endorse practically everything said regarding your specific criticisms. Thanks to all for their insightful comments.

Second, no, I haven't been to Taiwan, but I have a hard time believing that an invasion by the PRC would be welcomed. You see, friends and family would be killed in the ensuing combat, thus starting "a cycle of violence," that will most probably end in PRC failure. I do not underestimate the Taiwanese military's ability to defend their country especially since the Chinese have little practical experience with amphibious warfare and will be up against a first-class foe.

Third, I believe that the unification of China should be a political matter and not a military one, something that I would think the Taiwanese people would agree with. Whether a majority would support unification over the status quo or outright independence is not clear to me and not really my concern. But I do think they should be allowed to make their own choices; the PRC's actions to date suggest that if the Taiwanese decide a certain way, they would force them to change their minds. America shouldn't let the PRC be the last word in the self-determination of Taiwan. I would be shocked to think that any freedom-loving person would believe that the PRC should be allowed to have the last word on such a subject.

As for the relative balance between the PRC and the US, I don't really worry about it. The US has the most dynamic and powerful economy in the world. Even after 9/11, liberating two countries thousands of miles away, and going through the bursting of the tech bubble, the US still has the world's leading economy. The PRC is still learning the ropes with their somewhat more open markets, and, with the CCP in charge, it is guaranteed that corruption and accounting games on a horrendous scale are going on. For all of the talk of a multipolar world, I find it interesting that no one looks to China for help in the wake of a disaster, and instead looks to the Great Satan.

I would be shocked to think that any freedom-loving person would believe that the PRC should be allowed to have the last word on such a subject.

freedom-loving? This Kai person is obviously redder than chairman Mao.

Gawd, not again! Every freaking minority ethnic group with dual citizenship and a math/science graduate degee, Jew, Indian, Paki, Chinese, Korean, and Japanese, is a threat to our national security.

How much longer are we going to spend US money giving these chumps PhDs and pay the even bigger price when they go south for their "homeland", their "people", and their "nation".

F*ck 'em all. None of them can be trusted.

I was going to come back and smack Kai around some more, but all you guys left for me was some grease stains and a nasty smell. Rats.

Kai, I lived in Hong Kong for a year. Half of it spent with a Taiwanese family. Trust me, they don't want the PRC taking over.

I get a real kick out of these people here blaming Clinton for this. Don't forget that these guys came here and started spying under Reagan.

Yeah...do you know what I get a kick out of?

Dogs in costumes, man.

They crack me up.