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« Light Blogging Advisory/Open Thread | Main | Weird »
September 02, 2005

Unemployment At 4.9%, A Four Year Low

Even bad-news weeks sometimes end with the soothing clang of cowbell.

The 4.9 percent unemployment rate reported for August was down a notch from July's 5 percent rate and was the lowest since August 2001.

...

In Friday's report, U.S. employers added 169,000 jobs in August, reflecting increased employment in industries, including construction, professional and business services, health care and education, and financial activities. But manufacturers shed jobs for the third straight month, reflecting the industry's sometimes bumpy road to recovery from the 2001 recession.

Also encouraging was that payroll gains were revised up for both June and July. Employers in July added 242,000 jobs, an improvement from the government's initial estimate of 207,000 net job gains. For June, 175,000 jobs were added, up from a previous estimate of a 166,000 jobs gain.

The payroll gain of 169,000 reported for August was less than the 190,000 new jobs some economists were forecasting before the release of the report. Economists were predicting the unemployment would hold steady at July's 5 percent rate.

Over and over the job-creation numbers are underestimated. If the pattern holds so will August's.

But Katrina and soaring oil prices may finally stop the economic boom, just when people may have started to notice it all:

Many economists believe the hurricane's fallout will slow overall economic growth in the months ahead as higher energy prices crimp consumers' and businesses' appetite to spend. Some believe growth in the final quarter of this year could come in at an anemic pace of around 2 percent.

Such a scenario could make businesses more cautious in their hiring, which could raise the nation's unemployment rate.

Isn't it usually the case that devastating storms actually help employment? There sure are going to be a lot of construction workers and other tradesmen hired shortly.


posted by Ace at 09:25 AM
Comments



On CNN today, they pointed this out, but were quick to jump on the negative - saying basically we're all doomed.

Posted by: Slublog on September 2, 2005 09:33 AM

Yeah, while this boom was nice (*I* noticed at least), methinks it's over for a little while. New Orleans and the surrounding areas simply affect too many sectors of the economy (POL products and shipping are gonna hurt bad). Eventually, the rebuilding will help spur the economy a bit, but by then the ripples may still be upsetting business nationwide.

Cheers,
Dave at Garfield Ridge

Posted by: Dave at Garfield Ridge on September 2, 2005 09:35 AM

.
Not to rain on the parade (maybe that's not a good metaphor to use here), but:

Keep in mind Bastiat's Fallacy of the Broken Window:

http://www.econlib.org/library/Bastiat/basEss1.html

IOW, hurricane and flood damage is not a good thing.

Posted by: speedster1 on September 2, 2005 09:36 AM

Good economic news or no, Ace, a little Mallory today would go a long way towards bucking me up right now.

The despressed malcontents need some cheesecake.

Posted by: Rocketeer on September 2, 2005 10:24 AM

I was going to mention what speedster mentioned. It's not good for the economy to have to rebuild something that took centuries to build up. It may spur activity in particular sectors, but entire businesses were wiped out. Lots of people lost a whole bunch of net worth, and regular insurance doesn't cover flood damage (as well, federal flood insurance is capped at $100k, I think).

So, no, it's not a good thing on the macro scale. If you're a construction guy, or a cleanup crew, it may be good for you, but that's about it.

Posted by: meep on September 2, 2005 10:27 AM

What will it take for the US to finally start building some new refineries? $5 gas? Fine, go to Atlanta!

Seriously, what is the purpose of having a strategic oil reserve if you can't turn it into something useful? You can't just pour crude into a tank or ambulance. Of course, trying to establish a petroleum reserve at this point would just push up the price, but it is something that will have to be looked at in the future.

Posted by: holdfast on September 2, 2005 10:29 AM

How about we take a big chunk of the land freed up by BRAC and, in the "long term" short term, if you see what I'm saying, turn it over to oil refining?

Posted by: Rocketeer on September 2, 2005 10:36 AM

Bastiat's Fallacy may be more familiar to us lay fold as Zorg's lecture to Father Cornelius in Fifth Element.

Posted by: geoff on September 2, 2005 10:41 AM

I was talking to my landlord about this stuff, and he had a great idea - tribal lands.

An oil company should talk to a representative from a Native American tribe about putting a refinery on tribal land - offer them a sweetheart deal and move right in.

Since those lands are sovereign under US law, there'd be no issue with licensing, regulatory nonsense or anything like that. I mean, it should be done in an environmentally-friendly fashion, but it could be done faster on those lands than on lands owned by the US government.

Posted by: Slublog on September 2, 2005 10:43 AM

Not bad, Slublog, and a lot more productive than casinos.

Posted by: Rocketeer on September 2, 2005 10:48 AM

RE: Gas & oil prices.

The true good that will come out of this, in my opinion, is that we have a chance to finally stop this boutique gas bullshit. (Scroll down on this page for interesting discussion back on PBS in 2000 about oil & gas profiteering and boutique gasoline)

It will also expose all of the morons standing in the way of progess - mainly the NIMBY and ecowackos who have impeded construction of refineries and domestic drilling operations. I want them to begin screaming and yelling at the top of their lungs when the administration tries to clear the roadblocks. I think we should dub it the "Dean Effect."

Finally, there will be serious movement toward alternative fuel sources and automotive technologies. What a lot of people don't know about is the very short time span in which this could be done.

Silver linings abound.

Posted by: Sue Dohnim on September 2, 2005 10:48 AM

Slublog -- Nice try, but it won't work. The law on tribal sovereignty is a complex and self-contradictory mess, but one principle that emerges is that the sovereignty extends only to internal matters. It would be easy for the tree huggers to find an activist federal judge to rule that refining is not purely internal because it affects the entire world via Gaia-harshing, etc.

Legalities aside, tough, I'm tickeld at the prospect of making making moonbats squirm by forcing them to choose between two sacred idols (trees and teepees). What whould the crying injun from the old Earth Day ads do? My prediction is that this is one of those many instances when the moonbats would have to deny any freedom of action for the noble-and-innocent-but-misinformed protected group, "for their own good."

Posted by: quiggs on September 2, 2005 11:14 AM

Well, that sucks.

Nuclear power for everyone, then!

Posted by: Slublog on September 2, 2005 11:16 AM

Just had another one in here....fucking moonbats will be the death of me!

She said it was Bush's fault for cutting funds to NOLA....then she said there would be a depression- when I pointed out that there's usually a little job boom because of the rebuilding- then she said that now the Bushies and corporate types will get rich.

Which is it, moonbat??
Both of course.

The only thing that gives me comfort is that this woman is a crabby, pushy, cheap complainer-type person that I never liked seeing come through the door.

Hopefully she won't be ruining any more of my days.

Posted by: lauraw on September 2, 2005 12:56 PM

My co-workers are saying the National Guard should be here in the US instead of in Iraq and so it's ultimately Bush's fault.

*sigh*

Posted by: Slublog on September 2, 2005 12:58 PM

Just had another one in here....fucking moonbats will be the death of me!

The irritating thing is, even when they know you're a righty, they assume the truth about <insert some issue here> is so obvious that even you have to agree on this one. I was on the phone to somebody last night who damn well knows my politics, and she starts in on the hurricane and Bush and I so didn't want to go there. I said, "I really don't think we want to talk about this." And she was like, "oh, you can't support Bush now?"

That happens to me a lot in the UK. They start friendly political discussions assuming I'm a lefty. I must be one, because I'm not crapping my pants and I strumming the banjo.

Posted by: S. Weasel on September 2, 2005 01:07 PM

Well, I made it worse...I told her that I had a guy from Louisiana in here yesterday that told me about all the money that has been poured into fixing NOLA for years and years that has simply vanished into thin air...and she just stared at me with fucking hatred in her eyes.

They are barking mad and its getting worse.

Posted by: lauraw on September 2, 2005 01:26 PM

My co-workers are saying the National Guard should be here in the US instead of in Iraq and so it's ultimately Bush's fault.

Slublog, you might want to point out to your co-workers that 40,000 NG troops are on their way - the largest NG disaster deployment in history.

Also, you might want to point out that that's 1/7th of the remaining NG troops available after subtracting those currently deployed in Iraq.

Or not. I work in blue state state gov't, so I know how likely facts are to bounce off your co-workers thick skulls.

Posted by: on September 2, 2005 02:11 PM

I don't think facts are what the gripers are interested in. Just check out the NO Mayor. He's finally gotten the help he needs, and guess what? He's still whining!

But Mayor Ray Nagin issued an urgent statement indicating that a single convoy would not save the city. He warned that thousands of residents could die if remaining water supplies are cut off or contaminated, and that 50,000 residents were still on rooftops or shelters awaiting rescue.

“We’re holding on by a thread,” he said. “Time has run out.”

Well, if he'd had better control of his police force and a freaking plan, we might not have had to suspend rescue operations because the freaking helicopters were being shot at.

Someone get this guy a nice, tall glass of shut the f*** up.

Posted by: Slublog on September 2, 2005 02:24 PM

The NOLA mayor is a proven incompetent.

Yes, we have to clean up after his planning/organizational nightmare, but we really shouldn't pay him anymore attention than a buzzing gnat.

He is "combat ineffective".

Posted by: Tony on September 2, 2005 03:43 PM

Methinks Nagin doth protest too much.

Posted by: BrewFan on September 2, 2005 03:56 PM

Ace, you missed the most important part - POVERTY IS UP.

That 30M or so illegal laiens might have something to do with that needs to be kept hush-hush though.

Posted by: Tony on September 2, 2005 07:48 PM

I simply cannot believe the gentle treatment that New Orlean's government leaders, almost all of whom skedaddled, are getting in the press.

Some of the light touch is deserved, because they are still dealing with this mess and it's hard to come down hard on someone who sounds as desperate as Nagin. But if there has been any MSM publication that has quoted anyone pontificating on just how badly the local government failed these people, then I haven't heard it.

Surely, we can't be the only people to have noticed that in every city and town across this fair land, the actions of the local governement have FAR more impact on almost any aspect of life than the Feds. We can't be the only people to remember the parts of New Orleans that resembled the Third World BEFORE Katrina. It's very bizarre for me to see reporters constantly fretting about what George Bush should have done while completely ignoring how poorly New Orleans has been run for decades.

The only way I'd like to see New Orleans rebuilt is if they fire every single politician, government worker and police officer, and let Bush decide who fills each position. Hey, they do want the Feds invoved, right?

Posted by: Kimberly on September 2, 2005 09:09 PM

I heard Shepard Smith a couple of hours ago talking about Nagin sending some of his friends currently lodged in a ritzy hotel over to the evacuation buses at the Superdome and getting them in front of the line of New Orleans refugees.

Posted by: Sue Dohnim on September 2, 2005 09:24 PM

That can't be.

He was elected on a promise to end corruption.

Posted by: Slublog on September 2, 2005 09:25 PM

Oh I'm quite sure he ended the OTHER guy's corruption.

That would have competed with his own....

Posted by: Tony on September 2, 2005 10:08 PM

Heh.

Anyone notice the lefties seem to go away at night? That's weird.

Posted by: Slublog on September 2, 2005 10:15 PM

"Anyone notice the lefties seem to go away at night? That's weird."

I've noticed it to. What time does the dayroom close at the 'home'?

Posted by: BrewFan on September 2, 2005 10:20 PM

I don't know whether to laugh or get mad at this one.

Is consistency too much to ask? Have NYTimes writers even heard of Google?

Posted by: Slublog on September 2, 2005 10:23 PM

I've noticed it to. What time does the dayroom close at the 'home'?

Either that, or they don't have the same internet connectivity at home as they do at the high school.

Posted by: Slublog on September 2, 2005 10:24 PM
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