McCain as an 800 lb gorilla?

The media really has to stop confusing wishes with reality. McCain probably couldn't even win the New Hampshire primary again.

I'm a (mostly) social conservative, and I'm a Guiliani guy as well. I saw him speak here in Maine before the election last year and came away really impressed. The guy's good, and I would love to see a debate between him and whoever the Dem is going to be, as I don't think it's going to be Hillary.

Guiliani is too ethnic to carry the souther bigot vote.

the souther bigot vote

Whoa. Step aside, Michael Barone.

We got a reeeal political guru in our midst.

Rudy by and large hates judges and thinks they're all puffed up on themselves. He should use our drunk judge as a whipping boy too.

The thing that allows social conservatives to overlook Rudy's cosmopolitan squishiness is his law-and-order record. The guy doesn't put up with much loose shit. Now on guns he's vulnerable.

I wish I had a beer for every time one of my lefty friends told me "Shhh, but I voted for Rudy. Don't tell anybody."

I'm not a Guiliani man myself, but I was saying something similar on Karol's site yesterday. I think, under certain circumstances, he could get the nomination, and if he does, he could win the election. I think some of his personal baggage could hurt him, but if he did get nominated, he has the potential of taking New York's electoral votes, so he could afford to lose some southern states. And he could probably take most swing states without a problem. Depends on who he runs against, obviously, but I think Karol is way off here.

"the souther bigot vote"?
Racist AND illiterate... I think I smell a Democrat.

As far as McCain goes... if i want to vote in a Republican primary I'd rather vote for a REPUBLICAN. This leaves McCain out.
I can also guarantee that unless he's running opposite Sarah Brady there's no way he'll get the votes of the gun-owner lobby.

speaking for souther bigots (I'm not one, but they do let me speak for them),

fuck you thomas

As to the subject at hand, McCain the media that worship him can't get him elected. Hagel is a non-entity outside of Nebraska (probably works to his favor - if more Republicans paid attention to him he'd lose more votes).

Guiliani is popular, even in souther bigoted Texas.

Ace, I'm with you on Guiliani (or are you with me? I forget which), although I think that he's likely to take a very different tack to neutralize the abortion issue.

Instead of publically eating his words-- which would only hurt his image as a political maverick anyway-- he could still get the primary vote by stating that his personal opinion on the matter is irrelevant. But, in his professional opinion, Roe v. Wade is bad law, and the states should once again decide whether to allow abortion or not.

This way, he can have his cake and eat it, too: he can still say that he feels abortion should be legal. . . *in New York* (where, let's face it, it always will be unless it's made illegal by the federal government), but that other states can choose their own laws, and that we shouldn't let such divisive social issues dominate our national discourse, etc., etc.

Now, I'm sure that such a stance won't help with some of the more extreme anti-abortion folks, but the more mainstream anti-abortion folks would eat it up. You know why? Because thirty years of GOP head-pats on abortion have given them virtually nothing but presidential platitudes on things like "the culture of life." The GOP currently controls the presidency and the Congress, and has a technical majority of the SCOTUS judges, and *STILL* abortion is as legal today as it was after Roe was decided. Quite frankly, the GOP treats the anti-abortion wing about the same as the Dems treat the black vote-- taken totally for granted on election day.

A federalist solution, while far from ideal for anti-abortionists (especially those who feel that it is murder, plain and simple), at least serves as a grand compromise, and neutralizes the issue at the federal level. As long as the anti-abortion crowd insists on outlawing abortion everywhere, they will guarantee that abortion will be outlawed nowhere-- a federalist solution at least provides the likelihood that abortion will be outlawed/restricted in certain states.

Of course, to enact such a solution would necessarily require strict constructionists who don't read a right to privacy into the Constitution, don't abuse the Commerce Clause, etc., which Giuliani would have to pledge to appoint (but he would do so anyway, as it gets votes, and I think he believes that too).

Bottom line: I dunno how Rudy will get out of the abortion quandry, but I doubt he can do so merely with platitudes. He's been too close to the debate for too long in order to backtrack.

Oh, and one last thing: if Rudy does run, watch for the MSM to ignore him in favor of McCain & Hagel, because he's probably not "maverick" enough for them anymore (since he's remained a strong supporter of Dubya).

Cheers,
Dave at Garfield Ridge

Include this Texas voter in the Rudy camp.

I'm a souther bigot (blind hatred for fucktards), and I wouldn't vote for Guliani unless he was all there was. Say, Guliani v. McCain--I'd go for the dago in a heartbeat.

We need a good, solid conservative governor to head the ticket. Somebody with executive experience. Condaleeza would make a great V.P.--not as much practical executive experience, but is used to the environment. I'd be afraid that she was too fucking tired to go another term.

Mitt Romney? Well, maybe. A governor with experience dealing with Democrate insurgents--even if ineffective--may be useful.

Rho, I share you committment to nominees with executive experience, but it doesn't necessarily have to be *state* executive experience.

After all, NYC's population, not to mention operating budget, is larger than a number of states, even countries. I'd say that being mayor of NYC counts as having executive experience (whether it's the right *brand* of executive experience, I leave up to the voters).

BTW, sounds like you should take a look at George Allen, who I think may end up surprising folks. (Or not, cause he's boring-- but boring may be appealing when faced with Rudy, McCain, etc.)

Cheers,
Dave at Garfield Ridge

I'm pretty much a Condi man, but Giuliani's my strong second choice. He did much better in Patrick Ruffini's latest straw poll than I expected, and McCain did a lot worse. McCain's an 800-pound gorilla in much the same sense that Mario Cuomo was for the Dems--he looked pretty fearsome, as long as he didn't actually run. Even with fairly uncritical MSM support, I doubt McCain would do as well in 2008 as he did in 2000, and he didn't win that one.

Even with fairly uncritical MSM support, I doubt McCain would do as well in 2008 as he did in 2000, and he didn't win that one.

He got his butt kicked pretty badly, actually. The media built him up almost completely:

Bush Wins
Alabama
Arkansas
California
South Carolina
Delaware
Colorado
Florida
Georgia
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin

McCain Wins
Arizona
New Hampshire
Michigan
Connecticut
Massachusetts
Rhode Island
Vermont

The "McCain juggernaut" was pure, unadulterated media fiction.

My "he didn't win that one" was meant to be sarcastic understatement. Yeah, Bush wiped the floor with him. McCain is the candidate that all the journalists would vote for, if they had the slightest intention of ever voting for a Republican, which they don't, but that doesn't translate into real-world appeal.

Right now McCain is polling at about 20-25 percent, I think, roughly even with Giuliani, but I really doubt that will hold. In Ruffini's online poll, Giuliani rose to better than 30%, with surprisingly little regional variation (apparently he can bring in the souther bigot vote). McCain fell to something like 7%. Just a silly on-line poll (with 16,500 votes), but it doesn't bode well for the guy.

Sorry about that. Was trying to underscore, not disagree.

heh, no Texan would vote for a guy named George Allen.

Would that be because of the name's affiliation with a certain football team whose name shall go unmentioned?

Versus anything on the dem radar scope so far, Rudy would be a slamdunk.

Sure, he's one of those squishy northern republicans kinda like Rocky was, but what's the alternatave?

Hillary?

[runs away screaming...]

Rudy's squishy on the Social Con issues, but he'd clearly not squishy all over (like, say Specter). McCain is kind of the same - his views on free speech and free markets make me queesy, but he is strong on defense and even some social-con issues.

Either one could win I think - though Rudy's marital issues could hurt him. He also ahowed horrible judgment in backing Kerrick for SHS - something that hurt him big time with the Republican Party.

Hagel is a non-entity outside of Nebraska and France.

"Is that enough to appease the strongly-conservative Republican base?"

In a word--no.

McCain is the 800lb gorilla in the niche that Hagel wants: Republicans who hate Republicans.

I agree with you on Rudy. Karol is right about Condi, though.

I just had a mental flash of Guiliani, coming out as not just pro-life but for pot legalization and Democratic talking heads visibly panicking on the cable news shows.

Completely ridiculous, but I had the scenario spring unbidden to my mind. Must be my repressed libertarian side.

Would that be because of the name's affiliation with a certain football team whose name shall go unmentioned?

Bingo.

"*STILL* abortion is as legal today as it was after Roe was decided."

Not strictly true. After 2 decades of virtually no restrictions, they reined it in a wee bit in the early 90s. But that's splitting hairs.

It doesn't matter how NAKED Guiliani gets. He's toast outside the northeast and west coast. PLEEEASE--Why, he can't even pronounce BAR-B-Q. How many women mud wrestling contests has he attended anyhow? No way is this fellas going to win. I think he'd be a great president, but he's got to get him some shit kicking boots and a whole lot more down home humor to get this red necks vote. As for the bigot vote, Guiliani's got no chance to gain those votes----Howard Dean and the Democrats already have all the Christ haters and Republican haters. And given the KKK endorsement of Mother SHeehan by David DUke why there's no bigot vote left to get outside the Democratic party.

Giuliani has law and order creds that anybody could admire.

However, that speaking cadence...atrocious. Rapid fire staccato. Not good.

Three suggestions for a Republican's success and two out of three involve lying. That says a lot.

Hagel is a Republican who doesn't agree with every aspect of the current administration's foreign policy. It's absolutely hysterical to call him a "republican who hates republicans" for that. I think about 59% of the American public would call him "sane" for that.

Hagel is a Republican who doesn't agree with every aspect of the current administration's foreign policy

I think you meant "any aspect".

You're welcome.

Dave, you're kidding right. What part of the current Bush agenda has Hagel questioned other than the Iraq War and Bush's Social Security scam? I think he's supported everything else. If I'm wrong, please correct me.

Well, if you need a reminder, how about tax cuts?

Fess up, Ace - is it you who registered rudycantfail.com?

Whoever it is, damn them for beating me to the punch.

Rudy would be a VERY strong candidate.
Even in the deep south.
EVERYONE watched every minute of the post 9-11 situation in NYC. Everyone knows a real human being when they see one. He would do very well indeed.
All he has to do is come out with a plan on illegal immigration which focuses on the judicial, detention, and deportation aspects of making the system work, and he's a shoe-in.

Giuliani needs to lay a lot of groundwork before he'll be considered a viable candidate by the western states. They saw him for a couple of months after 9/11 and were impressed, but he's still only an ex-mayor, and from NYC at that. He needs to show them that he understands their needs and that he's got the executive chops to manage at the state or federal level.