Another approach that can work is "make commercials people *want* to see." Also, when I TiVo and "skip" the commercials, whether using the fast-forward or the "secret" 30-second skip function, I do actually see bits of the commercials flash by. And if I see something that intrigues me (and this *can* happen), I'll stop to watch it.

Ace, while you do see that "sponsored by one sponsor" deal coming back ("24" has a had few episodes commercial free, sponsored by only one comapany), that doesn't really do much for the advertisers. They still need to put in something that shows their products off, usually a commercial at the beginning or very end of the program. Which, of course, means something that can get TiVo'ed.

What is unfortunately more likely is the actual inclusion of ads within the programs-- and not like the subtle branding you get when Jack Bauer uses a Norelco to razor burn a jihadi's testicles. Nope, I'm talking about using the margins of the screen to broadcast banner ads.

You see that now with ads popping up for upcoming programs ("Coming this August: Glutton Bowl VII!"). My guess is you'll see more of these ticker ads, until it's possible that all broadcast TV will look like a CNBC program.

All this means, of course, that I'll be sticking to pay cable.

Cheers,
Dave at Garfield Ridge

but who the hell cares what sort of diet cola Detective Munch from Law & Order: SVU drinks? I don't.

Not even Homo Cola, ace?

They actually - on *24* as it happens - *did* do a mini-skit about Cisco Systems network security products this season. It was a totally extraneous bit where Chloe tells the boss that a network attack from Imhotep was automatically blocked, thanks to Cisco. And the boss doesn't *quite*, but almost, turns to the camera and says "Well, I'm certainly glad I chose Cisco back when around CTU budget time. Thanks to Cisco, I don't have to waste valuable manpower on this problem!"

And they had a pretty funny extended 5+ minute ad (on an otherwise ad-free season opener) for Ford, where terrorists are pursuing Jack Bauer in a Ford truck. Bauer and his truck elude the terrorists nicely, and he even manages to turn the tables on the bad guys somehow, and they all get arrested by local cops. Then we learn the bad guys were chasing the wrong Jack Bauer - this one's just a regular Joe construction contractor whose Ford truck let him survive a terrorist attack....

The underlying situation for all this is that the broadcast networks are dead. They just don't realize it yet, so they're still twitching and lurching around and stuff before they're absolutely forced by events to rethink a 50 years obsolete business model.

Yeah. I can see a pay-per-season model rising up, its going to be the only way shows can continue, especially as the market becomes more On-Demand.

The underlying situation for all this is that the broadcast networks are dead.

Hear, hear!

They're whole existence has always depended on the captive audience -- the lack of viable alternatives. It's been dying since pay cable on the scene. They survived that development for the last 20 years by using governmental restrictions to their advantage (local monopolies and other legal restrictions on cable companies, which helps keep the broadcast market essentially closed).

Same goes for radio. Radio's big development is satellite, which is relatively unregulated, and will therefore bury terrestrial radio.

But the Internet is too free of a market for network TV to last much longer.

The usual suspects will probably turn to legislation again, this time to help shut down the broadband internet cable system, or make it more content-restricted, or keep the technology from improving to the point where full-length content can be disseminated conveniently and quickly. As it stands, it still takes half an hour to download a 5 minute segment. As that technological capacity improves, TV declines, and they know it.

They are so predictable: for an example of such content-restrictions and other legislative solutions, American TV can always look to Europe.

God forbid we have a free market! How would the current crop of third-rate TV execs make any money that way?

One mildly funny thing - if you go read the old Sony case where the Supreme Court said that the sale of VCRs was legal, the Court either strongly suggests or outright says that using your VCR to skip commercials would be illegal, but because there are other, legal, uses of the VCR, it's still ok to sell them.

Wait until Internet2 goes mainstream, where you can download a full DVD movie in a few minutes. If the lawyers let it happen...

Looks like advertisers will have to find new captive audiences. Watch for movie theatre advertising to increase, and thinly veiled "ad-ucation" programs in public schools.

I never bought that "watch the ads or you're stealing TV!" argument. So, what, I have to carefully study every ad in my newspaper too?

And the only think I watch on the broadcast networks is football and baseball. And they already constantly stream ads across the bottom, have every single stat sponsored by someone, and now even show computer images of company logos on the field.

I've had a TiVo for 3 years and a Replay for 2 years before that.

I cannot tell you what night much less what hour a network program airs. My TiVo knows my likes and faithfully grabs programs for me always obeying my orders for certain programs.

I haven't a clue how the networks' business models will have to change. I just know you'll have to pry my TiVo from my cold hands.

I suspect that we'll end up with a two tiered system, with everyone that can afford it getting cable and TiVo, while the few who can't have to stick to networks, and they are the only ones that are counted for advertising purposes. As we get more affuent, the networks will eventually disappear altogether.

Nah, the other 10% leave the commercials running while they use the bathroom or grab a drink. Expect to see a change in how networks promote commercials, like with the superbowl. Top rated programs will premiere hyped ads and all other advertising will turn to more product placement/sponsership types.

WTF is wrong with the other 10%?

Are they morons?

One possible solution: Blipverts

How about this solution? All these TV people could just make normal salaries. If Detective Munch made 200K a year instead of 2M, and all of the other people on the show took similar cuts in salary, small ads could easily pay for the show.