This could give us a great oportunity to launch a limited-scale offensive--just about the only kind of fight we're capable of fighting right now. We'd be able to blow up some Iranian boats, shoot down some Iranian fighters, and engage in tactical bombing of a few Iranian military targets. What we want to avoid is putting ourselves in a position where we need to invade.

This is just one more reason why we cant allow them to get the Bomb. When they finally get one we will lose our ability to wage small scale offensives like this.

Ripped off from Instapundit:

"Without much publicity, France has moved the replenishment ship Var to the eastern Mediterranean. The Var contains facilities for running commando operations, as well as facilities for about 200 commandoes and their equipment. France apparently believes that the situation in Lebanon is going to get out of control. Since World War II, France has been something of a big brother for Lebanon, especially the Lebanese Christians. This particular relationship goes back some 800 years, to the time of the Crusades. Currently, the Lebanese are out in the streets protesting the continued presence of Syrian troops in the country. If France is going to get involved, it won’t be with a lot of troops. But you can do a lot with a hundred or so commandoes. "

You know what this means dont you? Thats right-Syria is about to conquer France.

Nice article Ace.

I agree about Iran using the threat of increased oil prices as a way "discourage" the United States or an ally (perhaps Israel?) from disrupting their nuke program.

IN fact, I even wrote an article about it! :) If you are curious you can read it here:

http://allalongtheblogtower.blogspot.com/2005/03/dylan-code-energy-independence-and-you.html

Ace--

I've had some experience in these kinds of wargames myself. They're not pretty.

Iran has a pretty substantial short-range missile capacity along the Gulf coast. Lots of Chinese-made Silkworms and similar systems, they can threaten neutral shipping pretty much along the length of the Gulf (and especially so at the Straits). Combine that with their Kilo subs and their extensive mine warfare capabilities, and they can shut down the Gulf to traffic pretty quickly.

Now, the U.S. Navy can probably reopen the Gulf quickly as well, but it'd be one helluva knife fight (significantly more intense than the Kuwaiti reflagging in the late 80's). There's no room to maneuver in the Gulf, and given the short ranges involved, it's easy to get surprised. I have no doubts we'd clean the Iranians' clock before all is said and done, but in the short-term, we'd definitely lose tankers, and could see more than a few Navy vessels hurt. Especially from mines (the "IED of the sea"), as they're cheap, plentiful, and our countermine capability is woefully inadequate.

In the meantime, oil prices will go through the roof for some time, at least until the Iranian capability is neutralized. Which might take quite a while.

Not a pleasant picture.

Cheers,
Dave at Garfield Ridge

The choice is between war and the Iranian bomb. The Mullah's Manhattan project is proceeding and negotiations merely buy them time, until it is too late. The talk of "giving them financial incentives" (trying to buy them off) is the kind of virulent insanity that can only spring from the minds of Liberals. No matter what, in the long run, they cannot be bought off. Perhaps if they could be bribed to actually stop their project (highly unlikely and impossible to really verify) it would give our thinly stretched military a break to prepare for our strike against them. Other than that, tribute is worthless and only encourages others to demand it too. The cowardly and treacherous Europeans aren't serious about doing anything about the Iranian Bomb, as usual, they wait for us to do it. The Isrealis may not have the capability or the will to stop this like they did in Iraq (a much simpler matter). We will have to go to war with Iran sooner or later over this. Why not sooner, before they have a bomb?

Dave,
Interesting information I did not know. What do you think about the Iranian nuclear bomb?

It's times like this that I wish the U.S. flex its muscles by not flexing. You know, "Gee Europe, you seem to be doing well with this nuanced diplomacy thing. Think you can handle this one? We're a litte occupied at the moment. Occupied, heh."

Or perhaps we'll drop it on them.

Gordon - Good idea. This is what Bush should've done before the Iraq war before he signaled our intent to go it alone, allowing them to stay out of it.

Dave has a reasonable take here - but the tactical situation is even worse. Recently the Iranians have become heavily invested in coastal AA as well as anti-ship stuff. In essense we operate there currently only because they allow it - eliminating Saddam was to their advantage.

There's also those three Kilos (who's operational status I don't know about). When protected against air ASW by the shore batteries, and surface combatants don't dare enter because of a hail of cruise, what is there to neutralize the Kilos in a head to head fight? Nothing I can think of. The Iranians have built themselves a pretty good interlocked defense.

IMO, it would take some Seal magic, or a first strike, to take out the kilos. The first strike option is politically ugly.

That's what I'm talking about, Seventy-Two V-Man!

It seems like we can't lose if we play it that way. Either Europe does it itself therby losing to option to bash this as a U.S. oil adventure, or they ask us to deal with it. When that happens, we first say, "could you say that a little louder?" Then we go it.
Win-Win!

I'd be willing to bet we know exactly where those kilo's are at all times which means we don't necessarily need the air/surface components of our ASW capability. Everything else Iran has is subordinate to our air power in the region and would not last very long. We've got enough stand-off weaponry to take care of their missile threat. Not a cakewalk by any means but certainly the odds are heavily in our favor.

French Commando=Women who don't shave anything.

The reasons the Syrians are pulling out and I quote
"We're out of Nare! How can we fight the French Commandos?"

Did I grow up watching James Bond movies for nothing?

When do we see the hero penetrate the Iranians' secret labs, arrange an "accident," and use a bunch of outlandish gadgets to narrowlly escape with his life and a foxy Russian agent?

Criminy, isn't that why I pay taxes?