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February 22, 2005

The Rumor Mill Churns: Condi for Cheney?

You know, I just wrote a post about the rightosphere not trafficking in rumors, yet here I go.

It's not a conspiracy theory, though.

I don't really believe this at all. Rumors about Dick Cheney leaving his position have been percolating for so long I think we can safely say they jumped the shark sometime back in 2003.

Still, a lot of people who should probably know better never tire of hyping a hypothetical Condi run, so here's the latest Condi-for-Cheney replacement rumor:

Dr. Jack Wheeler reports on his Web site, To the Point (http://www.tothepointnews.com/article.php?id=629&i=), that a "red-breasted rumor bird" is buzzing around the Capitol whispering Hillary's worst nightmare. Congressional know-it-alls claim Vice President Dick Cheney will use health reasons as an excuse to not finish his term. If or when that happens, word is that Bush will pick Condoleezza Rice to succeed Cheney.

Wheeler says: "Being a sitting Vice-President places Condi in an impregnable position for the GOP nomination in 2008, and sucks every breath of wind from Hillary's sails. ... This is George Bush and Dick Cheney's way to buck history – and make it."

...

Condoleezza Rice is a flipping juggernaut waiting to be unleashed on the dysfunctional, lost, babbling Democratic Party.

...

Hillary has 'tried' to reinvent herself. She has 'tried' to mitigate her extreme liberal roots. She has even 'tried' to equivocate on abortion (go figure). However, if you think John Kerry got hammered for flip-flopping, wait for the point-counterpoint on Hillary.

Condoleezza Rice is Hillary's worst nightmare. If only the "red-breasted" rumor is true ...

I've said it before, but here goes again: Condi has never run for elective office. Being a politician requires a very odd and particular skill set, and there is no evidence whatsoever that she possesses it.

Further, she is probably too pro-Affirmative Action to woo the conservative base (she was reported to have fought tougher anti-AA language in Ted Olson's brief in the Michigan U. case) and I think it's known (?) that she is at least moderately pro-choice.

Which leads me to wonder: Sure, she has a great story, and sure she's a black woman and a capable strategist as far as foreign and military policy, but if the Republican Party is inclined to nominate a social moderate/liberal, it has others it can turn to. John McCain, for one. Rudy Guiliani, for another, and a superior one at that.

I don't buy it, but I'll just report and let you decide.

Thanks to LauraW.

And... If you want to start wargaming out a Condi-Hillary death-match, you can pick up miniatures -- well, action figures, really -- from this company.

H/t Michelle Malkin.


posted by Ace at 04:10 PM
Comments



i had heard she's reasonably socially conservative, though no Ashcroft. She is certainly religious. In any case, she has enough latitude to get away with being conservative if she wants to.

I also don't think being mildly pro-AA is a career killer.

Posted by: See-Dubya on February 22, 2005 04:18 PM

I think it's more than "mildly." The brief ultimately submitted in the Michigan case, IIRC, basically endorsed quotas so long as they weren't called quotas, or were at least disguised enough that they weren't facially quotas.

But they were, really.

Posted by: ace on February 22, 2005 04:24 PM

Let it be said here and now that I indeed predicted exactly such a scenario (not on this website, mind you - this was long before Ace of Spades HQ had arrived on the scene) about two years ago.

Let's face it: Hillary's the first serious female contender for The Title. On another pundit's website I posited that a Condi candidacy would force Hillary to attack Condi on some very fundamental level. It would place Hill in the absurd and preposterous position of saying the Condi is neither female nor black. Now that would be interesting….

Posted by: Dan-O on February 22, 2005 04:33 PM

Not John McCain. He's crazy as a bedbug. How about John McClane! Yippie Ei Oh MF!

Posted by: BrewFan on February 22, 2005 04:40 PM

You're gonna vote for Condi and you're gonna like it, damnit.
From where I'm standing, the social conservatives can go out back and NOT screw themselves if they're going to bitch about a Condi run. But they, alas, control the primaries to a large extent (and did such a good job for so long in California). This rumor, as whacky as it might be, is the only way to get someone like Condi or Rudy G. beyond the primaries.
McCain? Let him go make sand art in Arizona. Or let him go run on Hillary's ticket. If the Dems love him so much, they can have him.

Posted by: ken on February 22, 2005 04:56 PM

I think if the administration had the balls to do this it would be absolutely dumbfounding to the left.

I agree with you about the "never ran for office" thing, however, i think the nature of politics has changed so dramatically since 2000 that people would be much more likely to embrace a non-politician than ever before.

This is just the next phase in the legacy of Al Gore. His contesting of the 2000 election and refusal to take it like a man started the ball rolling. Now we have a nation of people who are totally jaded and totally distrustful of the process. I think an arguement could be made at this point, that the longer you have been in office the WORSE it is for your chances of winning.

All those votes in congress and the senate to defend. All the interviews and the dealing and the campaign donations. All these things make me think if there is ever a time for someone like a Condi Rice, it is now. The Media has spent their last "get out of jail free" card with the CBS memos. They will have to think long and hard now before releasing anything that sensational. Look at the deal with all these "tapes" and Bush's comments. Who really cares? Nobody.

What are the chances of the MSM coming out and slamming Condi Rice in grand fashion? Sure they will want to do it. Why isn't she married? Why didn't she breed? She must be a lesbian! All that crap. But then who do they alienate? That's right, the women and the gays and who gets the vote? Condi.

It is a win/win for the RNC and Condi. I think the bigger question is if she is interested in the job. I would love to see the media collectively shit themselves and I would love to see the Friends of Hillary contemplate their own "Jonestown."

Sorry for the rambling... :)

Posted by: on February 22, 2005 04:57 PM

Hmmm.. was she provost at Stanford then? Because she may have had that policy dictated to her by trustees, etc. It had to be before she was NSA, right?

Posted by: See-Dubya on February 22, 2005 04:58 PM

The fact that Rice isn't married and may have a "partner" on the downlow will sink her nomination.

Posted by: Chris Grant on February 22, 2005 04:59 PM

Fine, yeah, if she has street creds with moderate Republicans, then she's a moderate. She's certainly got less baggage and a higher Q factor than Giuliani or McCain.


On the other hand, the last political science professor elected to the presidency was Woodrow Wilson.

Any chance Powell will try to horn in?

Posted by: Seedub on February 22, 2005 05:00 PM

One thing Condi has going for her is international "strategery". She is, after all, much of the brains behind a lot of what the Bush administration has been up to these past five years on the international scene. She doesn't get much credit (or blame, depending on your point of view), but she deserves it and can rightly claim it in a campaign.

I'm not saying I'd vote for her; I don't know enough about her to make up my mind, and she's inexperienced. But I think she stands a chance.

Posted by: SJKevin on February 22, 2005 05:04 PM

I wish Conde would run and win, for all the reasons given.

But I suspect that the calm arguments against it will prevail - unless the rumour-bird is accurate.

One set of arguments I do not buy are of the "its never been done" catagory. Nothing was ever "done"...until it was done. Women didn't vote - until they did. Blacks didn't have civil rights - until they did. We never had a female Senator - until we did.

Posted by: Cheese_tensor on February 22, 2005 05:11 PM

She should be picked as the 08 VP nominee. In order to set her up for a '12 or '16 run. This could give her some election experience and some executive experince.
I still love the idea of Republicans running the first serious black woman for president, which is also probably why all the other Condi backers support her..

Posted by: Iblis on February 22, 2005 05:16 PM

George Washington never ran for elective office before running for President.

I'm jus' sayin'

Posted by: Phil on February 22, 2005 05:20 PM

You're gonna vote for Condi and you're gonna like it, damnit.
From where I'm standing, the social conservatives can go out back and NOT screw themselves if they're going to bitch about a Condi run.

I would vote for her. My question is whether enough other people will to elect her.

She's popular now among conservatives because they only really know her one big position, a position they agree with: Kicking ass and taking names.

If she ran for president, they'd quickly find out the other positions they don't like as much.

Can star quality alone overcome ideological qualms about a candidate?

Again, if they can, why not just get behind my guy, Rudy Guiliani?

I think Condi would be a good president. But I only think that. I don't know that. Some people look like good candidates on paper (Wesley Clarke? John Kerry? Al Gore?) but just don't have the charisma, emotional intelligence, and glibness (sometimes ooching into outright evasiveness) to be effective candidates.

Posted by: ace on February 22, 2005 05:35 PM

Her moderate views don't bother me too much. But this still seems like a pipe dream.

As long as we are dreaming... just think of all the bile that would roar forth from the DU/MoveOn/Ted Rall types. And not even the moonbats, but their enablers in the 'mainstream'.

Remember, during her confirmation hearings she was basically accused of being a step & fetcher.
The Dems in charge would be hard pressed to keep from making similar revolting displays, and driving more moderates into the warm arms of the Republican base.

Ooooh, Charlie Rangel, imagine the interviews with him, trying to explain how Condi Ain't Black.
Sigh. It'll never happen, but wow.

Posted by: lauraw on February 22, 2005 05:42 PM

Yippee ki yay, BrewFan.

Posted by: hobgoblin on February 22, 2005 05:51 PM

When asked to describe her position on abortion, she replied that she is "pro-choice". She is personally opposed to abortion, but doesn't feel it should be prohibited by the state.

Those of you who wish the social conservatives would just sit down and shut up can rant all you like, but the simple fact of the matter is that no candidate will pass primary muster unless they're in line with the pro-life voters in the Republican party.

If the Supreme Court overturns Planned Parenthood vs. Casey, and says that abortion is a matter for the states, then Condi can win the nomination. But as long as the President, through his power to nominate federal judges and justices, has the greatest impact on the long term prospects of the abortion fight, there will be no pro-choice Republican nominee.

Posted by: CleverNameHere on February 22, 2005 07:06 PM

hobgoblin,

I stand corrected :)

Posted by: BrewFan on February 22, 2005 07:41 PM

Ace is right. Rice should not be the next Presidential candidate for the reasons he stated.

McCain, though, is also not an option. I wouldn't vote for someone so media-hungry he let the words "Hillary would make a good President" come out of his mouth. What a MORON.

Despite our current lack of contenders, I don't think Hillary has a chance because she is far more hated than admired. Right now all she has is name recognition that is helping her in the polls. BUT, if she gets McCain to agree to be her VP candidate, then it's not going to matter who the Republicans run; the spineless fence straddlers of the world who call themselves "moderates" will fall on the wrong side for the wrong reasons.

Later,
bbeck

Posted by: bbeck on February 22, 2005 08:40 PM

Actually Phil, George Washington ran for and was elected to Virginia's House of Burgesses--the Colonial Legislature. He was also elected (well, by the House of Burgesses) to the Continental Congress.

Posted by: Simon Oliver Lockwood on February 22, 2005 08:49 PM

Oh yeah, rumor has it that the DNC has already prepared an extensive dossier on Condi in anticipation of just such a scenario. They've most likely packed it with every rumor and inneundo and scrap of sleeze they possibly can. She's going to have a hell of fight on her hands because I think she scares the daylights out 'em.

Posted by: Dan-O on February 22, 2005 09:44 PM

The exception to holding significant elective office as a preliminary to being a credible Presidential candidate has always been aternate high performance of leadership - as amply displayed by certain Generals - Washington, Jackson, Grant, Harrison, Eisenhower, etc.

And it is best that Senators serve as VP or First Lady, to get executive experience or they typically get whomped by a governor or general... Did I say 1st lady????

Republicans are doing too much "life story" garbage these days as a qualification. Condi the ice-skater who knew one of the Birmingham victims, Keyes the orator and preacher man from humble roots who was ideal in his blackness to pit against Obama, or would have been but for the fact Keyes is borderline crazy. The Eric Estrada story...no make that the Miguel Estrada story...ever hear it???

Condi is a policy wonk who never held a true leadership position, was never elected to anything. She isn't even VP material until she proves her chops.

Hillary KNEW despite all the talk of all the Hillary-lovers that she should accept the Dem nomination in 2004, that it would be meaningless unless she proved she could campaign, prove that she could get elected, prove she could make tough choices, and prove she could maintain her popularity and get the respect of her elected peers once in office. She has done that, so far...

Pity Rice didn't take her shot against Boxer, who is widely regarded as the stupidest Senator in the body, since Bob Smith of NH was forced out. The fact that she is female, black, plays piano, and is a smart wonk isn't enough.

If she ran, she's just another Buchanan, Jesse Jackson, Pat Robertson, Ralph Nader, Alan Keyes type - not qualified....unelectable.

Posted by: Cedarford on February 23, 2005 12:29 AM

The only argument I've heard against a Condi run that seemed to have practical heft is that she has no political base.

I think that's the significant - oft unstated - bit when someone argues against a presidential run simply because she hasn't run for office before. Where's the campaign support infrastructure coming from?

But this isn't an historically insurmountable problem, although it is a logistically significant one; and inasmuch as it could be a problem, some cautionary planning needs be done (and, likely, is).

And does anyone think Karl Rove is going to quit working just because Dubya has finally run his last race? (I don't.)

As for "lack of political experience" ...c'mon. Who really cares? Arnold didn't have "political experience" either, but frankly he's been a superb governor here in California (and as a moderate Republican in a state chock full o' moonbats ...hell, we invented moonbat-ism out here 40 years ago); and arguably the best governor since Reagan.

And it's not like running Stanford, running the NSC, and running State aren't giving her oodles of relevancy to bring to the post. A year or so of the VP would be ...icing ...though.

As for the expected Democrat hits: they'll need the cooperation of the MSM (and the major media are still going to be major players in '08) ...and I would suggest that the MSM, are going to find themselves severly conflicted by a Condi run.

I simply don't think the MSM are going to be as uniformly allied with the Dem's when the question before the electorate is whether to elect the first woman AND the first black person in the the history of the Republic ...or whoever else.

The Civil War will be over. As will the 1960's. As will sufferage.

She will win. It will not even be close.

The more interesting question is ...who's the ticket?

I vote Zell Miller. Talk about triangulation! - But hmm ...Jeb Bush also comes to mind (yes, for the obvious reason, in 2016).

And either of them would tend to mitigate Condi's present lack of campaign support infrastructure, eh?

Uh, in case there's any doubt ...I'm fer it. And have been since roughly March of 2000 when I heard her speak publicly for the first time. Told my wife then: "That woman's going to be President of the United States."

Posted by: brandon davis on February 23, 2005 12:37 AM

Condi's not going to run. She has zero -- zero -- domestic policy cred. What's more, I'm not sure there's a particular set that would appear to particularly complement the foreign credentials she's got. She may well be VP nom in '08 as our 'more of the same foreign policy' guru. Incidentally, I suspect any lesbian innuendo would blow up in the faces of the Dems/MSM. I mean that Mary Cheney stuff sure helped Kerry, right?

McCain will never win a Republican primary, nohow. Unless we're hit with a WMD attack -- but Rudy might be the choice then too.

If Romney can beat the embryo-harvesting nightmare and win reelection -- in MA of all places -- he may be the frontrunner. (He's a serious contender even if he only manages one.) Otherwise Rudy looks like our man. Which is OK -- he seems to have learned not to go all holier-than-thou on his social liberalism (something certain bloggers could use), and indeed may be moderating on at least the framing of his positions somewhat.

Posted by: someone on February 23, 2005 01:11 AM

Rice needs some sort of experience to win the presidency. McCain would never make it past the primaries and he knows it. He's a shameless unstable media whore and a Kyoto-loving, speech-censoring, business regulating sumbitch. No way in hell would he ever get the nomination.

Giuliani doesn't know jack about national politics and there is no way a partial birth abortion supporter will ever get the nomination.

My favorites are Romney and Allen though I wouldn't bet on either.

Ace should ask Jeff Gannon if he'd be interested.

Or would that be a demotion for the Great Gannon?

Posted by: Stinky Pete on February 23, 2005 02:20 AM

Thanks for the correction Simon. I still like the idea, though maybe for the wrong reasons. It would drive some people bonkers.

Posted by: Phil on February 23, 2005 08:14 AM

I dearly hope Condi runs. Since she's a fanatic when it comes to 2nd Amendment Rights, she has that going for her anyway....

I can't see how her marital status will affect her at ALL.

I have no idea how her AA positions are in the details, but personally, if the GWOT is still going, I don't care. If it's clearly over in 2008, then I'll care.

Same with Abortion - plus, most who call themselves 'reluctantly pro-choice' tend to be of the "The Supremes said it was a Right, who am I to even start to argue?" type.

Posted by: Dave on February 23, 2005 08:38 AM

Her marital status and her race will absolutely affect her chances in the primaries, especially in the South and Mid-west. It's Jeb and Rudy in 2008.

Posted by: Chris Grant on February 23, 2005 11:36 AM

Being a politician requires a very odd and particular skill set, and there is no evidence whatsoever that she possesses it.

As noted above, she was provost of Stanford. If you think that doesn't take the same skill set as a politician just look at the Summers Saga.

I look forward to a Condi Rice run if only to see the left explain to me exactly why she's neither a woman nor black.

Posted by: Veeshir on February 24, 2005 06:52 AM

On a related note (that's politesse for OT), did anybody see Sliders yesterday on the Sci-Fi channel? They had slided (slid?) to a world that looked exactly the same. They were happy to see that 'President Clinton' was about to address the nation. What a shock when they found out that they were on a world where men were second class and it was President Hillary Clinton.

I had to change the channel, shoot the dog or shoot the TV. I like the TV and the dog so I watched the end of Scary Movie 3.

Posted by: Veeshir on February 24, 2005 06:54 AM

Why shouldn't there be a "political pairing" between Condi and Hillary ,like the one between Buchan and his VP ?-O.K,maybe in an alterrnate world,just like in the ep of'Sliders'with women"taking over"....(Geddit ? )

Posted by: Christophe Renaudot on February 26, 2005 04:13 PM
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