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« Egyptian Sex Scandal | Main | Sundance Update [Ace] »
January 26, 2005

RE: How and Where the Democrats Went Wrong [Dave at Garfield Ridge]

Zelda--

Excellent post, but I disagree a wee bit on one point of yours. Rather than comment to your post, I figure I'll use my Super Posting Power! to enlarge the scope of this discussion to involve all us guest bloggers.

Because, let's be honest, everybody has their opinion on why the Dems screwed this one up.

I don't think Senator Kerry moved any farther to the Left this year. At least not in the general election, where necessity demands all candidates move at least somewhat towards the Center. Granted, when compared to Clinton's campaigns (especially 1996), Kerry's was certainly further to the left, but when compared to most every other Democratic campaign in the past thirty years, Kerry's was no more Left than normal.

Then again, no Democrat other than Clinton has won recently, so perhaps that's the problem, eh?

I think what ultimately motivated many undecideds to vote against Senator Kerry was a conclusion that they couldn't tell which side of the spectrum Kerry would lead from: the campaign-spun Center, or more to the far Left.

If anything, Kerry's fault wasn't that he moved to far to the Left-- it was that he was already Left, but didn't move far enough (or effectively enough) to the Center.

Given the flip-flopping charges early on, Kerry already had a natural handicap working against him in trying to move towards the Center.

As a result, few believed Senator Kerry when he pushed his "new" nuanced Centrist positions-- not the skeptical undecideds, and not the diehard Left who fondly remembered, with a wink and a nudge, the unapologetically liberal Kerry. Overcoming this confusion ultimately turned out to be an impossible task for the Kerry Campaign.

Heck, given Kerry's flawed campaign, if it weren't for the "Anybody But Bush" vote, the election may not even have been close.

Then again, whadda I know? I voted Matt Hooker for President.

-- Dave at Garfield Ridge


posted by Ace at 02:36 PM
Comments



Dave, I totally agree with you that Kerry was already quite far to the left. I guess what I was trying to say is that when moderate candidates like Joe Lieberman were rejected in favor of someone like Kerry speaks volumes about the direction of the Democrats. I guess you could say that Kerry was chosen was because the party was already far off to the left.

Posted by: Zelda on January 26, 2005 02:45 PM

Man does it piss me off when Liberals claim that they, and they alone, won civil rights. Even Andrew Young once admitted that "the unsung heroes of the movement are the Republican judges all over the south." Republicans like Eisenhower sent troops to enforce order while Democrats like George Wallace stood in the schoolhouse door. Former KKK Kleagle "sheets" Byrd opposed civil rights legislation, and was a part of the REAL opposing force to civil rights: the Dixicrats! But that doesn't fit the mythology of the Left. What the Democrats really DID DO was to pimp a popular cause and take it to such extremes that it morphed into the monster we have today, government sponsored and enforced racism against white people. For that they really do deserve all the credit.

Posted by: 72VIRGINS on January 26, 2005 03:04 PM

Yup-- my point exactly.

But, one more caveat-- if the Democratic Party had *really* moved as far to the Left as CW assumes, Howard Dean would've grabbed the nod.

Then again, Dean kinda killed his own chances with the howling.

What really did Kerry in was his failure to "introduce himself" to Americans who had no idea who he was, and his subsequent failure to reinvent himself once the flip-flopping liberal label stuck.

Whether or not Kerry could've possibly avoided either outcome is another question.

Cheers,
Dave at Garfield Ridge

Posted by: Dave at Garfield Ridge on January 26, 2005 03:08 PM

They walk an impossible highwire--trying to keep the moonbats writing checks without scaring the Moms and union meatheads.

Some of us remember how Reagan was going to destroy the country and how that turned out. The same thing's likely to happen here. Once it turns out Bush is not the reincarnation of Ba-al or Himmler the moonbats'll lose another few percent of the middle they seek to decieve. Which is great.

Posted by: spongeworthy on January 26, 2005 03:41 PM

It really wasn't that Kerry was 'left',or 'pseudo-centre';it was more that Kerry was weak, vacillating,and opportunistic.
Kerry lost on NATIONAL SECURITY.Not on abortion,not on health care,not on MORALS.He lost because many,many,people just 'knew'he was not the man(nor did he have a reliable Party behind him)to defend the nation.
All the Democrats save Lieberman suffered from the same problem.In the end the only thing that made it close was the ABB vote.In 2008,if security remains job#1,the results will be much worse for what remains of the Democratic Coalition.

Posted by: dougf on January 26, 2005 03:55 PM

They also energized the mainstream people who saw all the protestors and crazy antics and said to themselves, "I sure as Hell don't want THOSE assholes to win."

Posted by: lauraw on January 26, 2005 03:58 PM

By saying that Kerry blew it assumes that he SHOULD have won. Is that what you are saying?

If that is the case, then you and I were looking for the same candidate -ABB as long as ABB was not WtB(worse than Bush.) I concluded JK was not WtB, you concluded he was.

If Bush was the right man all along, if he was YOUR man for the job, then the Dem's did nothing wrong. It was just an unwinable election. That would be like saying what the '86 Pats did wrong against the Bears, right? I mean, Bush was so strong, so right for the country, who could possibly step up and beat him?

Posted by: Ranger on January 26, 2005 05:29 PM

Maybe if John Kerry had done the Superbowl Shuffle he would have done better...

Posted by: refigerator amish on January 26, 2005 05:40 PM

But Ranger, think about all the spectacular flubs Kerry made. Come on, now, they helped.

-I remember in particular during debate time-- "Mary Cheney is a Lesbian"

-Showing the common man that he can reluctantly force-feed himself three bites of a Wendy's meal.

-Exploiting the memory of Vietnam- as if people want to fucking go back there

-Failing to keep Teresa sedated and quiet.

I'm sure you can think of like 25 more stupid pet tricks he did.
Somebody should put together a highlights tape.

Posted by: lauraw on January 26, 2005 05:52 PM

Ranger--

First, it's nice to see ya over here at my vacation home. Please don't track any mud onto the carpet.

Second, c'mon, the 1986 Pats never had a chance. Remember, I can rub that in all I want to-- you've got one more ring than I do in your lifetime (and possibly another one quite soon).

As for Kerry, look: I view most elections, particularly at the national level, beginning from a level playing field.

Start off at the beginning of any campaign from 1988 to 2004, and to me, nearly every election appears to be a toss-up.

While some candidates are weaker than others-- Dukakis and Dole come to mind-- even they wasted good opportunities in hindsight to win the election.

Now, I'm just talking politics here, not whether Bush or Kerry were better from a policy standpoint. You and I are both aware that, despite personal protestations to the contrary, millions of Americans never get much politics beyond Jay Leno or the Daily Show. Subtracting the diehard Righties and Lefties, there is still a great big middle in play in each election.

My question is, how much of that middle was really in play? We all hear the talk about Red vs. Blue voters, but is there actually some underlying movements in favor of one candidate or another?

Some folks like to think the country has grown more conservative in recent years (or, conversely, more conservatives have grown in the country). The polling data seems to support that trend.

However, how influential is that streak? Was it and it alone enough to overcome ABB syndrome, which could have normally carried the day?

Or, were we really just talking about as little as, say, 5 percentage points in play on election day?

The trouble is, so many morons out there claim they're "undecided" when they're really not, so it only appears that the electorate as a whole is undecided come election day.

So, which is it? Are we split right down the middle, Red vs. Blue, or are we one great mass of undecided voters? We can't be both, or at least we can't be both in the percentages CNN or Time Mag would have us believe.

I tend to believe we really aren't that undecided. In that case Kerry's campaign strategy became *vitally* important, because he had to sway a very small number of people to come over to his side.

And, the tyranny of small margins means small things can sway them: dumb gaffes, bad hair days, lousy convention speeches, etc. All that's left is for Al Pacino to give his "game of inches" speech.

I'm just trying to understand a confusing dynamic by confusing the issue even more, that's all.

Cheers,
Dave at Garfield Ridge

Posted by: Dave at Garfield Ridge on January 26, 2005 06:24 PM

fywbxvnkometwgrwwtwjjuofmejiscurotpbpxt
link http://glayhc.aqsfrr.com

Posted by: fwdohe on October 12, 2005 05:44 PM
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Funniest thing I've read about the Virginia mess. Back when they were hustling the referendum through the assembly both Senators, Warner and Kaine, advised them to go slow and play by the rules. Louise Lucas said she respected them but didn't need advice from the "cuck chair" in the corner. The gerrymandering was overturned and Louise is heading for the big house. Edward G. Robinson voice "where's your cuck now?"
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I posted his post on twitter and it's gotten 25K views so far. Thanks, Smell the Glove
Chris
@chriswithans

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"Ahhhhh ahh I put my career on the line for Louise Lucas and Jay Jones thinking they'd vault me into presidential contention and we ended up costing Democrats 20 House seats and unleashing a Reverse Dobbs ahhhhh ahhh"
Forgotten 80s Mystery Click That Sums Up the Democrat Communist Party Today
Something is wrong as I hold you near
Somebody else holds your heart, yeah
You turn to me with your icy tears
And then it's raining, feels like it's raining
"It's f**king f**ked."
-- reportedly a genuine comment offered by a "senior Labour source"
Correction: I wrote that Labour is losing 88% (now 87%) of the seats it is "defending." I think that's wrong. The right way to say it is the seats they are contesting -- that is, they don't necessarily already hold these seats, but they have put up a candidate to run for the seat. It's still very bad but not as bad as losing 87% of the seats they already held.
Basil the Great
@BasilTheGreat

🚨ED MILIBAND [a Minister in Starmer's government] SAYS KEIR STARMER WILL RESIGN AS PRIME MINISTER

He has reportedly reassured Labour MP's that Starmer will be resigning following the disastrous results tonight

It's over
"The end of the two party system in the UK" as first the Fake Conservatives and now Labour chooses political suicide rather than simply STOPPING THE INVASION
Incidentally, the only reason this didn't already happen in the US is because of the Very Bad Orange Man (who is right on 85% of all policy calls and extremely, existentially right on 15% of them)
No political party that is NOT also a doomsday religious cult would EVER choose a cataclysmic loss -- and possible extinction as a party -- to support a toxically unpopular favoritism of NON-CITIZEN ILLEGAL MIGRANTS over actual citizen voters.

Only a cult does this.
Now they've lost 84%.
Annunziata Rees-Mogg
@zatzi
If this continues Labour loses 2,148 seats tonight.

That is much worse than the worst case predictions I’ve seen.

Cataclysmic

Update: They've now lost 88% of the seats they're defending. As I mentioned earlier, I think I heard that London will not bail them out, as many of those Labour seats will probably flip to "Muslim Independent" or Green. Detroit's 5am vote will not save them.
Yup, Labour is losing 80% of its seats...
The British Patriot
@TheBritLad

🚨 BREAKING: Labour have lost 80% of all seats contested as of 2:25 AM.<
br> If this continues, Keir Starmer will be out of office next week.

Reform has surged and projected to pick up between 1700-2100 seats.


Wow, up to 1700-2100 seats. It's not incredible that this is happening. It's incredible that the Davos crowd is so absolutely determined to privilege Muslim "migrants" over the actual native population who elects them, no matter how loudly the natives scream that they want to be prioritized, that they will gladly self-extinguish as a party rather than simply representing the interests of their own voters. Astonishing.
Remember, when they call other people "cultists" -- they are the ones so imprisoned in their social reinforcement and discipline bubbles that they will choose political death rather than dare upset the Karen Enforcement Officers of their cult.
Update: Now they've lost 83% of the seats they were defending.
(((Dan Hodges)))
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Reform are basically wiping Labour out in the North. It's not a defeat. It's not even a rout. Labour are simply ceasing to exist.


Nick Lowles
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Tonight’s results are calamitous for Labour. Not just for Keir Starmer's leadership, but for the very future of the party
STARMERGEDDON: In early returns, Reform gains 135 seats, Labour loses 90, the Fake Conservatives lose 36 (and I didn't even know they could fall any further), the Lib Dems lose 4, and the Greens gain 6. Note that the only other party gaining seats is the Greens and they're only gaining a handful of seats.
Update: Reform now up 145, Labour down 98.
Labour projected to lose Wales -- where they've ruled for 27 years.
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REF +190, LAB -134, CON -56.
Updates on the Labour collapse in council elections -- which wags are calling #Starmergeddon -- from Beege Welborne. There are about 5000 seats up for grabs, Labour is expected to lose 1,800, Reform will probably gain 1,580, up from... zero. So this would be more than that.
People claim that while Labour has adopted the Sharia Agenda to appeal to the million Muslims it allowed to migrate to the country, those voters are ditching Labour to vote for the Muslim Independent Party or the Greens. Delicious. This shadenfreude is going straight to my thighs.
Oh, and if Starmer loses about as badly as expected, Labour will toss him out of a window Braveheart style and replace him. He will announce he is resigning to spend more time with his Gay Ukrainian Male Prostitutes.
Media bias and senationalism are as old as, well, the media:
spidermanthreatormenace.jpg

That was written by Denny O'Neill and illustrated by, get this, Frank Miller. Editor to the Stars Jim Shooter was in charge at the time.
I always thought the gag was original to the comic book, but in fact the "Threat or Menace" headline was a satirical joke about media bias and sensationalism for a long while. The Harvard Lampoon used it in a parody of Life magazine: "Flying Saucers: Threat or Menace?"
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