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January 26, 2005

Bad Day In Iraq. [Dave at Garfield Ridge]

31 Marines dead after their CH-53 helicopter crashed.

Also, four Marines were killed in combat, as well as an Army soldier in a separate attack.

While the cause of the helo crash is unknown, a dead American is still a dead American.

And sadly, as we approach this weekend's elections, the prospects for violence increase.

Over at Garfield Ridge, I express my concern over the Bush Administration's apparent lack of a "Plan B" in case the Iraqi elections fail.

You won't find a stronger supporter of the war than I, but it seems to me like we're riding on "wishful thinking" fumes right now. If there's one thing I've learned in my time in the Pentagon, it's that "optimism is not a strategy."

Pray for our men and women-- pray for their victory, and pray for their safe return.

-- Dave at Garfield Ridge


posted by Ace at 11:46 AM
Comments



I'm sure they have a Plan B, but they're not discussing it. I don't see the benefit of discussing a plan at this time either. This loss of life is heartbreaking.

Posted by: Chris Grant on January 26, 2005 11:54 AM

Chris--

I would like to think they have a Plan B, but I'm not as confident as you are.

And the problem with never discussing options ahead of time is that you look like you're making it up as you go after the shite hits the fan.

For instance, just think of how much political hay the Democrats made with statements like "the Pentagon was unprepared for the insurgency!" and "The SECDEF is responsible for armoring every Humvee!"

One can easily imagine the cacophony of criticism next week if, say, most of the election Sunday has to be called off due to violence. Every Dem will be on Hardball playing a genius in hindsight.

And while lives are more important than politics, the only way this war is going to be fought to victory is if the President can manage the politics-- either by gaining support for the war, or neutralizing criticism of it.

My fingers are crossed for this weekend. But I fear that if things get *really* bad (I'm already resigned to a lot of violence, so my definiton of "really bad" is a very bad day), the Administration has done very little in the way of specifics to prepare the American people for what's next. All they've said in public so far is "It'll be hard, there'll be bloodshed, go Iraqi National Guard!"

That may not be enough to insulate them from criticism.

Then again, I'm also a realist-- the Dems are going to complain no matter what. All that's left is finding out which horrible images from Baghdad complement their complaints on CNNMSNBCCBSABCNBC.

-- Dave at Garfield Ridge

Posted by: Dave at Garfield Ridge on January 26, 2005 12:23 PM

Our track record in Iraq so far has been mixed, there just is no denying it. Though I share Dave's worry, I expect that somehow the force of events set already in motion will be unstoppable by even the worst terrorists attacks. I am far more fearful of our own press attacks upon the war. Last night on Front Line a brother of three dead suicide bombers went down the Liberal littany and mentioned the "no WMDs" mantra as one of the reasons for terrorism. Our Liberal Press is the most powerful weapon terrorists have against us as they turn Moslems and everyone else in the world against us just to get Bush. Now THIS is a truly frightening scenario.

Posted by: 72VIRGINS on January 26, 2005 12:25 PM

I, for one, would prefer not to see any discussion of plans or options in public, because it only provides valuable information to our enemies.

By all means, however, have informed oversight through the appropriate Congressional committees, with severe punishment for leakers. That is, after all, how a republican form of government is supposed to work.

Posted by: HT on January 26, 2005 01:12 PM

Dave, you served at the Pentagon, though I'm not sure in what capacity. What would you suggest the president say to offset current and post-election criticism (that is purely strategic in how the war will be run)? I'm interested in your take on this as a former Pentagon person.

Posted by: Chris Grant on January 26, 2005 01:16 PM

Erm, Dave I'd like to hear your impressions on the thought that AQ is (going forward) going to have more of a focus in Europe (than the US) as we've "hardened" access to the country, and have better counter-terrorism systems in place compared to the EU weenies.

If that is in fact a tactic they're employing, it will be interesting to see what tactics they employ in Iraq. They weren't able to get shit off the ground in Afghanistan, and that was RUN by a bunch of hardline islamists. Iraq, obviously, is a different story, but shit, if security isn't tight there election day, it isn't tight anywhere.

Posted by: fat kid on January 26, 2005 01:46 PM

Nice to see that Ace may be gone but his spirit of defeatism goes on.

Posted by: someone on January 26, 2005 02:36 PM

Why would anyone, based on the administration's track record, expect that they have a "plan B" for anything? They appear to adhere to Will Smith's injunction that Plan B would only distract from Plan A. Plus, in the Faith Based Policymaking of this administration, having a Plan B would really be an insult to faith in divine providence.

I expect that the elections themselves will go as well as expected; several polling places will be car bombed, the bulk of the Sunni Triangle will not participate, the Shi'as will take control and negotiate with the Kurds, the administration will declare it all good and move on.

Posted by: vonKreedon on January 26, 2005 03:18 PM

Chris, Fat Kid--

If you wouldn't mind waiting, I'll write a bit more on the subject over on my site, .after I get home from work

As for Ace's spirit of defeatism-- Good Lord, I'm not *predicting* failure. I'm just talking about what would happen next *if* we fail-- or more accurately, if the election failed to improve the situation (which, it must be remembered, is ultimately a failure on the part of the Iraqis, not America. . . although we certainly share some responsibility).

Cheers,
Dave at Garfield Ridge

Posted by: Dave at Garfield Ridge on January 26, 2005 03:34 PM
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