If oil prices stay at current levels the recovery will run out of steam sometime next year. And they show no sign of any significant drop in time to prevent this. Hate to say it guys, but between terrorists in the mid east disrupting supplies, increased demand from China and India, maturing oil fields, and an increasingly uncooperative Russia, prices will probably stay high for the next few years. Sorry, but the tea leaves just look that way right now, fasten your seatbelts.

Well, crude's down 20% from it's high and at the pump we're well below $2 in Jersey. All this revised growth took place when gas was substantially higher than it is now. Maybe long-term the fundamentals aren't so hot, but we've heard that before and gas is still a bargain in real terms.

I dearly hope you're right spongeworthy, but why is gas a bargain in real terms? Because of inlation, and we can't endure inflation for long before we wind up in recession. Gasoline is less than 50% of oil use, high oil prices result in higher prices in everything from electricity to plastics and all points in between. The collapse of the 90's boom was preceeded by a run up in oil as was the stagflation of the 1970's. It is only a matter of time before so much money is wrung out of the hands of consumers and into the hands of oil producers that recession starts. The long term fundementals for the speculative boom of the 90's weren't good, and people heard it so often they stopped listening, that is, until the bust.

New rule changes which take effect next fall, and are expected to save the government $300 million in the 2005-6 academic year, ensure that at least 1.3 million students receive smaller Pell Grants and that 89,000 students who would be eligible for college Pell Grant money will get none.

The new rules are expected to have a "domino effect" across every type of financial aid, "tightening access to billions of dollars in state and institutional grants and, in turn, increasing the reliance on loans to pay for college." Education experts say, "the consequences for the nation's core financial aid programs are among the most substantial in a decade."

"This is the first time in at least 10 years where there's been a significant reduction for this magnitude of students."

The Bush administration first proposed altering financial aid rules last year but Congress "stopped the revisions from taking hold, arguing that tough economic times meant students needed more help to attend college, not less." This year the administration found support from Congressional leaders seeking to constrain the cost of Pell Grants, an expense that has steadily increased as more low-income students go to college.

For more on the consequences of large budget deficits and increased war spending, click here.

Post more cowbells often. Makes my day.

Better than Europe, but waaaaaaay behind China's 9.5% annualized GNP growth over the last 10 years.

China is starting to reward itself with those 100's of billions in trade surplus it has gotten from American. It is now buying up Australian, Indonesian, and Canadian oil production previously going to the USA. And buying certain oil companies where permitted, like in Canada.

Next stop for the Chinese? Hugo Chavez's Venezuela, where they hope to cook up a deal getting a portion of that oil dedicated to China only. It helps that China now operates the port facilities on both sides of the Panama Canal through HK Wampoa.

Enjoy your 1,000 dollars in Christmas purchases everyone! China, knowing 800 dollars of your goodies were made in China shares your Christmas bliss as visions of oil drums dance in their heads...

Smaller Pell Grants means more starving academics. Seems like that's a feature of large budget deficits and increased war spending, not a bug, troll.

The papers have previously reported that the administration was looking for ways to cut growth in federal spending on Medicaid by cracking down on improper payments and restricting eligibility and benefits. 47 Democratic senators expressed "opposition to any Medicaid reform proposal that seeks to impose a cap on federal Medicaid spending in any form or eliminates the fundamental guarantee to Medicaid coverage for our nation's must vulnerable citizens." Now, the nation's governors are urging President Bush not to shift Medicaid costs to the states to reduce the federal deficit.

The trimming of Medicaid benefits is yet another consequence of large budget deficits and defense spending. Because of Bush's economic priorities, domestic programs are trimmed for those that are most vulnerable. And as the funding for public programs decreases, religious institutions (who are also being funded by Bush's faith-based initiatives) are picking up the slack. Slowly but surely, they replace the government as the provider of basic social services and in the process build-up their stature and influence.

more on the consequences of Bush's spending priorities: www.politicalthought.net

For the last six quarters, the GDP annual growth rate is 4.6%. Is that a cowbell I hear?

As for those who take no pride in American energy and achievement - and who take eager comfort in the eventual prospect of bad news - Merry Christmas, losers!

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