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November 02, 2004

Kristol: Exit Polls Systematically Understating Bush's Actual Level of Support?

Just like in 2000, he says that in several states this time around -- like Virginia -- the exit polls indicate a tight race, too close to call, whereas the actual votes indicate a fairly comfortable Bush win.

Food. For. Thought.

Update: Barrone: Republicans squeezing more votes out of Florida than expected

Kondracke: Exit polls predicted Kerry win in FL, 42-48, but actual county voting doesn't match up, and may suggest Bush win

Exit polls in PA ridiculous, showing 58-42 Kerry edge; Kerry will almost certainly win PA, but by smaller margin, suggesting again that exit pollsters have consistently over-sampled liberals

Which makes sense. Look, this is a liberal kind of job -- college kid, etc. -- and they sort of gravitate to each other.

But we'll have to see.

Could be a very long night, kids.

But! My Pet Jawa says the big Democratic counties in Florida haven't reported yet.

You need an awfully big cushion to absorb the huge D votes from Miami-Dade.

posted by Ace at 08:46 PM

Comments

Does this mean I can take a nap and wake up at midnight when they start to sort all this crap out?

Posted by: someone on November 2, 2004 08:48 PM

Right! Time to stop hitting refresh, and go get a beer.

Posted by: Rich on November 2, 2004 08:50 PM

It's VERY early, but I sense a sinister smile starting to creep across Hume's face.

Maybe he's warming up to the idea of bitch-slapping Juan Williams. Finally.

Posted by: sonofnixon on November 2, 2004 08:51 PM

CNN calls Coburn a winner in Oklahoma. That's especially welcome because it an in the face to the Kos Kiddies, who were all predicting he'd lose. (Not that anyone else thought that.)

Posted by: H.D. Miller on November 2, 2004 08:52 PM

Susan Estrich was just on Fox.
Desperately trying to sell Kerry as a big winner tonight. Not very convincing. I'm not buying.
Estrich and Juan Williams sound like the partisan hacks they are.

Posted by: Joe Mama on November 2, 2004 08:58 PM

Exit polls are garbage. Precincts blow my skirt up.

Posted by: Velociman on November 2, 2004 08:59 PM

Michael Barone on Fox News is doing really great analysis of-- surprise, surprise-- *actual* votes in Florida.

The Democratic urban votes aren't in yet, but the rural and suburban counties that are voting Republican show big increases over the 2000 vote (up to 40% more GOP voters turned out to the polls).

Good news?

Cheers,
Dave

Posted by: Dave at Garfield Ridge on November 2, 2004 09:12 PM

Over 7,000 more panhandle Bush voters from last time -- about the same as were deterred by the early call, I'd guess.

Still wondering if Dems can steal OH.

Posted by: someone on November 2, 2004 09:17 PM

Holy crap! Kerry spot saying the -late- exits the nets are using had a 57% female sample too!

Where's Kim?

Posted by: someone on November 2, 2004 09:20 PM

OK, looks like those fake exit polls were real earlier.

They were just totally, totally wrong.

Posted by: on November 2, 2004 09:30 PM

I just put this up on my own blog, but I wanted to put it here because this scenario was going around here a few days ago:

I just did some math: Bush is looking good for Fla., so give him that. Give Kerry PA and OH, and put the rest of the swings in the columns they were trending toward before the election, which is how they've been breaking down anyway so far. And what do you get?

269-269 tie.

Shoot me now.

Posted by: francisthegreat on November 2, 2004 09:33 PM

Erm...did anybody see Susan Estrich on Fox a while ago?

Is it just me, or has she;

a.) Had a facelift and drunk off her ass
b.) Had a facelift and still high on pain pills
c.) ...Facelift and is faking a southern accent

Posted by: lauraw on November 2, 2004 09:34 PM

Dude, thanks for link. Here is a personal not on the exit-polling that I just put up at the live porn blogging post

9:31: Exit polls suck ass!! Look, I'm in the loop on this one. The peeps called me up looking for some students. I found some. When I called the polling company they said they already had found some students to work the polls in my state, sorry, too late. I was pissed. What students did the exit-polling here? The Social-Work students. Seriously, not only are they freaking retarded, they're also a bunch of nut-jobs with paranoia complexes that Bush is out to get them. I'm not joking.

Posted by: Rusty Shackleford on November 2, 2004 09:35 PM

Someone,

I didn't see KerrySpot saying that, though I looked for it. You sure it was there?

Posted by: ace on November 2, 2004 09:38 PM

Ace: check the blockquote here.

Posted by: someone on November 2, 2004 09:40 PM

Ace:

Hispanics in my office in Miami were almost all voting for Bush, even non-Cuban and my African-American secretary (religious conservative) also. If this is a county-wide trend it would definitely cancel out more liberal voters (Jewish and gays from the Beach and white liberals from my area, Coconut Grove) and make Miami-Dade County a wash.

That's my unscientific analysis and I'm sticking to it.

Posted by: SWLiP on November 2, 2004 09:40 PM

Lauraw,

Yeah, what was up with that? Her eyes were so wide open-- okay, face-lift. No big deal. She looked okay.

But what the hell was up with that Southern accent all of a sudden?

What is it with liberal women and just deciding they're going to speak with an entirely foreign accent?

Posted by: ace on November 2, 2004 09:40 PM

I've been making a sauce while Fox plays in the background. The fake Estrich-Souther accent was so noticeable, it caught my attention from the other room (kitchen), over a hot pot. What's the deal? Is she actually from a southern state? If so, I agree she's been drinking and the old drawl is coming out. If not, she's as nutty as squirrel shit. The latter is the more likely.

Posted by: Dear Johns on November 2, 2004 09:46 PM

This Southerner (four ancestors in the Miss. Infantry) says NO F**KIN' WAY SUSAN ESTRICH IS FROM THE SOUTH.

Posted by: SWLiP on November 2, 2004 09:49 PM

So far my logic seems to be holding out.

Posted by: SWLiP on November 2, 2004 09:59 PM

Miami-Dade? How about the later reporting votes in the Panhandle, a republican stronghold? Oh, and Zogby can kiss my booty. Virginia tied? Possible surprise state? I guess I won't be eating my hat.

Posted by: physics geek on November 2, 2004 10:03 PM

With the exception of Leon County (college town, government employees), the Fla. Panhandle is Bush country, for sure.

Posted by: SWLiP on November 2, 2004 10:06 PM

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