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November 02, 2004

Kristol: Exit Polls Systematically Understating Bush's Actual Level of Support?

Just like in 2000, he says that in several states this time around -- like Virginia -- the exit polls indicate a tight race, too close to call, whereas the actual votes indicate a fairly comfortable Bush win.

Food. For. Thought.

Update: Barrone: Republicans squeezing more votes out of Florida than expected

Kondracke: Exit polls predicted Kerry win in FL, 42-48, but actual county voting doesn't match up, and may suggest Bush win

Exit polls in PA ridiculous, showing 58-42 Kerry edge; Kerry will almost certainly win PA, but by smaller margin, suggesting again that exit pollsters have consistently over-sampled liberals

Which makes sense. Look, this is a liberal kind of job -- college kid, etc. -- and they sort of gravitate to each other.

But we'll have to see.

Could be a very long night, kids.

But! My Pet Jawa says the big Democratic counties in Florida haven't reported yet.

You need an awfully big cushion to absorb the huge D votes from Miami-Dade.

posted by Ace at 08:46 PM

Comments

Does this mean I can take a nap and wake up at midnight when they start to sort all this crap out?

Posted by: someone on November 2, 2004 08:48 PM

Right! Time to stop hitting refresh, and go get a beer.

Posted by: Rich on November 2, 2004 08:50 PM

It's VERY early, but I sense a sinister smile starting to creep across Hume's face.

Maybe he's warming up to the idea of bitch-slapping Juan Williams. Finally.

Posted by: sonofnixon on November 2, 2004 08:51 PM

CNN calls Coburn a winner in Oklahoma. That's especially welcome because it an in the face to the Kos Kiddies, who were all predicting he'd lose. (Not that anyone else thought that.)

Posted by: H.D. Miller on November 2, 2004 08:52 PM

Susan Estrich was just on Fox.
Desperately trying to sell Kerry as a big winner tonight. Not very convincing. I'm not buying.
Estrich and Juan Williams sound like the partisan hacks they are.

Posted by: Joe Mama on November 2, 2004 08:58 PM

Exit polls are garbage. Precincts blow my skirt up.

Posted by: Velociman on November 2, 2004 08:59 PM

Michael Barone on Fox News is doing really great analysis of-- surprise, surprise-- *actual* votes in Florida.

The Democratic urban votes aren't in yet, but the rural and suburban counties that are voting Republican show big increases over the 2000 vote (up to 40% more GOP voters turned out to the polls).

Good news?

Cheers,
Dave

Posted by: Dave at Garfield Ridge on November 2, 2004 09:12 PM

Over 7,000 more panhandle Bush voters from last time -- about the same as were deterred by the early call, I'd guess.

Still wondering if Dems can steal OH.

Posted by: someone on November 2, 2004 09:17 PM

Holy crap! Kerry spot saying the -late- exits the nets are using had a 57% female sample too!

Where's Kim?

Posted by: someone on November 2, 2004 09:20 PM

OK, looks like those fake exit polls were real earlier.

They were just totally, totally wrong.

Posted by: on November 2, 2004 09:30 PM

I just put this up on my own blog, but I wanted to put it here because this scenario was going around here a few days ago:

I just did some math: Bush is looking good for Fla., so give him that. Give Kerry PA and OH, and put the rest of the swings in the columns they were trending toward before the election, which is how they've been breaking down anyway so far. And what do you get?

269-269 tie.

Shoot me now.

Posted by: francisthegreat on November 2, 2004 09:33 PM

Erm...did anybody see Susan Estrich on Fox a while ago?

Is it just me, or has she;

a.) Had a facelift and drunk off her ass
b.) Had a facelift and still high on pain pills
c.) ...Facelift and is faking a southern accent

Posted by: lauraw on November 2, 2004 09:34 PM

Dude, thanks for link. Here is a personal not on the exit-polling that I just put up at the live porn blogging post

9:31: Exit polls suck ass!! Look, I'm in the loop on this one. The peeps called me up looking for some students. I found some. When I called the polling company they said they already had found some students to work the polls in my state, sorry, too late. I was pissed. What students did the exit-polling here? The Social-Work students. Seriously, not only are they freaking retarded, they're also a bunch of nut-jobs with paranoia complexes that Bush is out to get them. I'm not joking.

Posted by: Rusty Shackleford on November 2, 2004 09:35 PM

Someone,

I didn't see KerrySpot saying that, though I looked for it. You sure it was there?

Posted by: ace on November 2, 2004 09:38 PM

Ace: check the blockquote here.

Posted by: someone on November 2, 2004 09:40 PM

Ace:

Hispanics in my office in Miami were almost all voting for Bush, even non-Cuban and my African-American secretary (religious conservative) also. If this is a county-wide trend it would definitely cancel out more liberal voters (Jewish and gays from the Beach and white liberals from my area, Coconut Grove) and make Miami-Dade County a wash.

That's my unscientific analysis and I'm sticking to it.

Posted by: SWLiP on November 2, 2004 09:40 PM

Lauraw,

Yeah, what was up with that? Her eyes were so wide open-- okay, face-lift. No big deal. She looked okay.

But what the hell was up with that Southern accent all of a sudden?

What is it with liberal women and just deciding they're going to speak with an entirely foreign accent?

Posted by: ace on November 2, 2004 09:40 PM

I've been making a sauce while Fox plays in the background. The fake Estrich-Souther accent was so noticeable, it caught my attention from the other room (kitchen), over a hot pot. What's the deal? Is she actually from a southern state? If so, I agree she's been drinking and the old drawl is coming out. If not, she's as nutty as squirrel shit. The latter is the more likely.

Posted by: Dear Johns on November 2, 2004 09:46 PM

This Southerner (four ancestors in the Miss. Infantry) says NO F**KIN' WAY SUSAN ESTRICH IS FROM THE SOUTH.

Posted by: SWLiP on November 2, 2004 09:49 PM

So far my logic seems to be holding out.

Posted by: SWLiP on November 2, 2004 09:59 PM

Miami-Dade? How about the later reporting votes in the Panhandle, a republican stronghold? Oh, and Zogby can kiss my booty. Virginia tied? Possible surprise state? I guess I won't be eating my hat.

Posted by: physics geek on November 2, 2004 10:03 PM

With the exception of Leon County (college town, government employees), the Fla. Panhandle is Bush country, for sure.

Posted by: SWLiP on November 2, 2004 10:06 PM

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Top Headlines

SpaceX's IPO sets the stage for the colonization of the solar system -- by private enterprise [CBD]

Teen Driver Tayvin Galanakis Wins Jury Trial Against Officers Who Charged Him With DUI Even After He Blew 0.0 on A Breathalyzer And Passed Sobriety Tests. One Officer Accounted For 72% of All DUI Arrests For That PD [dri]

Days before the woman was stabbed in the neck by a taxpayer-supported Cultural Enrichment Officer, in the same general area, another taxpayer-supported Cultural Enrichment Officer attacked a boy and bloodied his head with a brick.
What is the UK Regime's plan for protecting the citizens from the savage criminals they've foisted on the populace? They offer NONE. They do, however, have a plan for protecting the savage criminals from the citizens: The citizens must STAY CALM and not get angry and not share videos of citizens being attacked by savage criminals.
The public keeps saying "protect us from the foreign savages you have imported against our wishes and over our objections" and the UK branch of The Regime keeps proposing plans to protect the foreign savages from the public. Soclose to what the public is demanding, just, you know, the complete opposite.
Just a thought: Maybe you wouldn't have to worry about the public attacking the savage criminals if you actually introduced a plan to protect the public from the savage criminals. Maybe they wouldn't feel as if it was necessary for them to protect the public through self-help.

Courtney Subramiam, one of the "journalists" who "previewed" her questions for the decrepit and demented Biden so that he could "answer" it with a pre-scripted response, rewarded by promotion to president of the White House Press Corps

Bonchie
@bonchieredstate

hahahahaha

This is the lady who gave her question to Biden beforehand, and he had it written verbatim in his notes with her picture.

You know what's really terrible? There are Daily Signal reporters in the press room. That's the Real Scandal Here!

English racist garbage-person who's on the wrong side of history warns the corrupt Regime that the people cannot take much more of this -- and won't take much more of this
The English have rebelled before.

All of the various Bob Dylans
by Ace-Endorsed Author A.H. Lloyd

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Odd 90s-Retro Susan Collins ad against the Nazi Hotchkiss "hobby farmer"
I like the throwback AOL style of the ad.

Podcast: Sefton and CBD bounce around from Maine and its pet Nazi, to the cracks in the Democrat messaging, to the failure of California and its effect on the 2028 election, sea drones rescuing Apache crews, and more!

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VOTE JEFF CARTER FOR NV STATE TREASURER!
[CBD]

Mary Margaret Olohan
@MaryMargOlohan

NEW: Five FBI employees were fired today over the infamous Richmond Catholic memo on "radical traditionalist Catholics," FBI source confirms to @realDailyWire.

Oof. Reviewers do not like Scary Movie 6. The criticism I keep hearing is that the movie mistakes a reference for an actual joke. The movie (they say) keeps Key Jangling a reference to another movie (or some other pop culture ephemera) and you expect there to be a joke but nope, the Key Jangle was the joke. Other reviewers say that the promise that "no lines will be uncrossed" is a fake-out, and that the movie is bland and inoffensively corporate.

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Whoops! I posted about Dan Goldman losing the NY congressional primary. He might do that, but it won't be tonight -- the primary isn't held until June 23.

One race to keep an eye on: the Levi's heir nepo baby and egregious "Designated Liar" Dan Goldman -- one of the Democrats from a safe district Democrats send out to spread their most indefensible lies -- may actually lose his lower Manhattan/Brooklyn set due to, get this, antisemitism in the Democrat primary electorate.
Antisemitism? In the anti-Nazi Democrat Party? Sounds crazy, I know, but apparently the anti-Nazi Party wants to eliminate Jews.

Henry Rosoff
@HenryRosoff

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@bradlander: 57%

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Oh my Totenkopf Tattoo, that is a DRUBBING!
I'm usually very anti-antisemitism but if the Communist Antisemite Jihadists can pull this one off, Go Communist Antisemite Jihadists, Go!

Democrat Senator Rueben Gallego, who served his wife with divorce papers when she was nine months pregnant so that he could marry his side-piece, counsels us that we should not judge Graham Platner for his infidelity because these things are personal matters, Racists:

Sahil Kapur
@sahilkapur

Sen. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., on Platner: "We know that Graham has lived not your typical political experience. He's been very clear and open with his wife, and they worked through whatever they worked through. At the end of the day, this man has had 60 more town halls than Susan Collins has. He's winning the polls, he's willing to accept that he has grown as a person, and I think we should accept that."

Gallego says the drip-drip of revelations won't harm Platner's campaign.

"I think you guys are all in a bubble here right now. The drip, drip that's actually happening is Americans are really, really hurt the fact that gas is still high, food is still high, they can't buy a home, you can't afford rent. They're not going to care about text messages and everything else like that that happened years ago, especially when it was worked out between spouses."

I like that he says that it's okay that Graham Platner sexted 12 different women within months of marrying the woman to sponge off her because he wasn't then "living a political life" -- the clear meaning being, "We all cheat, we just don't cheat when we're running for office, and he didn't know he was running for office when he was sending dicpics to half the women he ran into."
Except he was running: His own wife turned the sexts over to his campaign.
And obviously Reuben Gallego didn't let his "political life" get in the way of his extramarital dating life: