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« Kerry Holds Lead in Later Exit Polls | Main | Kristol: Exit Polls Systematically Understating Bush's Actual Level of Support? »
November 02, 2004

Fox Hints on Ohio and Florida?

They're not calling them yet, but....

Ohio voters give Bush a 50% approval rating, 49% disapproval.

That's tight.

But last time I checked, 50% was bigger than 49%. The alligator goes right after the 50% and slaps the 49% in the mouth with its tail.

In Florida, Bush gets 55% of the Hispanic vote to Kerry's 45%.

This seems like good news to me. No? Answer: Not necessarily. Bush had wanted 60%. Answer: Yes. See update.

On the other hand: Kerry's doing very well with military familes. Bush is beating him, but not by the margin he should be beating him by.

Update-- Kristol Corrects: Bush didn't expect to win 60% of Hispanics. Last time, in 2000, he won Hispanics 50-48. So 55% is a marked improvement.


posted by Ace at 08:26 PM
Comments



Are they lumping Cubans in with Hispanics? That always skews the Florida numbers. . .

Cheers,
Dave

Posted by: Dave at Garfield Ridge on November 2, 2004 08:31 PM

Dave, as a former S. Florida Cuban - now a No. Virginian Cuban, we tend to vote republican. Wonder why they don't make that a separate count?

Posted by: Tati on November 2, 2004 08:45 PM

Kristol just issued a correction... he had been given bad numbers, and he said the 55% is actually doing very well after all.

Posted by: dave on November 2, 2004 08:46 PM

I love it that Bill Kristol, et al., have just jumped all over the exit polls as being likely wrong, wrong, wrong.

Posted by: H.D. Miller on November 2, 2004 08:46 PM

Yeah, just heard that too...

Posted by: ace on November 2, 2004 08:47 PM

KerrySpot has a good run down on why the exit polls are so wacky (and indeed they are very wacky). Can't imagine why...the last thing I would ever do is tell some exit poller how I really voted.

Posted by: Paul B. on November 2, 2004 08:49 PM

Re: alligators

Glad to see someone else who learned greater than/less than with a teacher drawing alligator mouths. I remember my teacher calling it a dragon, but the thought is the same. Just the other day I was remembering this and thinking it's crazy how we can learn something in a wacky way and twenty years later still think of it in that way.

Posted by: Dale on November 2, 2004 09:02 PM

I'm pissed, Ace: this is true.

I live in Columbus. I woke up early, to go vote, the line was huge damm long. I'm on call this week, thus couldn't hang out, hadda go to work.

After work, went back, but the line was still two hours. For health reasons, I can't stand in the rain for two hours.

I stood there for a few minutes, wondering, really. I know I know more about this election than the majority of those folks. Feeling disenfranchised, but as a good Republican, suing isn't in the cards.

Any doubt who I woulda voted for?

Fuck me.

Posted by: James Cooper on November 2, 2004 09:21 PM
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