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October 31, 2004

Bush Leads by Three in Dem-Skewing CBSNYT Poll

OTOH, Frank Luntz says that Bush needs to be up by at least three in order to win (due to new voters and late-undecideds voting against him, plus, you know, fraud), so if this poll is merely accurate, Bush is still only fifty-fifty to prevail.

The article is worth reading, because it does endeavor to spin this as really bad news for Bush.

It's not just news-- it's hilarious liberal desperation.

Update: But the New York Times goes, as usual, a little farther.

If any of you are fans of Mickey Kaus, you know that Times' reporter Adam Nagourney is their go-to guy for liberal cocooning. For example, when the last NYT poll in 2002 showed a massive movement towards Republicans, Nagourney buried that interesting finding until nearly the end of the article, and wrote some idiotic article about the polls' findings about voter anxiety and the like. He gave it the following headline:

Poll Finds Americans Like Cheese

Okay, not that, but something equally anodyne and boring. The New York Times "newspaper" deliberately refused to report its own discovery of actual news in order to not distress its archliberal constituency.

At any rate, the latest NYT poll finds that Bush is ahead by three-- cause for some alarm to liberals, given the poll's Democratic skew.

And what's the headline?

In Final Days, Divided Electorate Expresses Anxiety.

Once again, Nagourney deliberately avoids mention of the actual news-making part of the poll in favor of a non-newsworthy headline that won't discombobulate liberals too much.

The first two paragraphs:

The nation is girding for tomorrow's presidential election, worried about the integrity of the voting system, divided over the legitimacy of President Bush's election four years ago and anxious about the future no matter who wins the contest, according to the final New York Times/CBS News Poll of the 2004 campaign.
The poll shows that Mr. Bush and his opponent, Senator John Kerry, remain locked in a statistical tie as they head into the final 48 hours of the race. But the poll registered an increase in Mr. Bush's job approval rating, as well as an increase in the number of Americans who said the nation was heading in the right direction. Republicans described this as evidence that Mr. Bush was picking up speed in these closing days of the campaign, but Democrats dismissed the numbers, saying that both figures remain dangerously low for an incumbent.

Nagourney waits until the sixth paragraph to actually let you know Bush is up 49-46-- not really a "statistical tie" at all, because any statistician can tell you that any lead indicates at least the probability that one man is ahead, even if you can't be sure of the margin. This lead isn't big, but neither is it tiny.

Nagourney has waited far, far longer in his articles to inform his readers of what the poll actually says. He's slipping a bit. I expect better/worse from him.

Loose shit, Adam.

posted by Ace at 10:21 PM

Comments

Try deciphering the new Gallop poll. Bush down in fl and OH up by 4 in PA? they are on crack. It is totally ass backwards. I think the polls are shit this year more so than usual. Just better get everyone to vote.

Heard 500 old folks die a day in florida or something bizarre like that earlier and they are having poll workers check obits for dead voters to watch out for.

Bush should win this handily. If he loses it will not be for not fighting the fight. When they are not playing by the same rules it makes it hard to win.

Posted by: jennifer on October 31, 2004 10:37 PM

Oy. 2 days. I feel like the guy pounding on the rail and screaming during the last lap of a horserace.

Posted by: Russell Wardlow on October 31, 2004 10:43 PM

I'm starting to understand the whole "icing the kicker" thing too.

Posted by: Joe R. the Unabrewer on October 31, 2004 10:46 PM

In this poll, 71% said they are as well off or better than they were four years ago. Doesn't sound like the Great Depression to me.

Posted by: on October 31, 2004 11:03 PM

I don't know if I can understand all this wacky, esoteric poll number gobblygook without Kim Richards to explain it to me, Ace.

Posted by: Alex on October 31, 2004 11:50 PM

That is what I'd call "objective reporting" from the Times. After all, they didn't make things up.

Posted by: jb on November 1, 2004 12:23 AM

Tha weekend polls are straight garbage..

First off, It's been pointed out all over the blogoshpere, that Bush folks are attending Friday night football games, second, it's Holloween weekend! All the good mommies and daddies are out doing what they do with tha kiddies.. This leaves either A)people who hate football or B)people who hate kids -- at home, answering the phone.

I'd take these last poll numbers -- wad em'up,-- do a Kerry-Jump-throw with em' right into the waste basket. I'd also like for someone to please stick a bloody sock in Terry Macoluf's mouth every time he mentions the exit polls showing Kerry ahead with people who've already voted in Iowa and Florida. That stuff is crap to.

Its all crap.

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Posted by: Raymond on November 1, 2004 03:16 AM

49-46.
Hmm.
That would mean there are 4% undecided if you assume at least 1% for Nader or Bednarak or whomever, combined.

The incumbent rule, which has only been true in 4 of the last 6 elections, says people break against the incumbent 2 to 1. It is of course horsesh**. But, that would still leave Bush winning the popular vote.

But all of the above is nonsense. Expect Bush to win 5 or 6 states that are 'surprises' to the media. They're not surprises. They're figured out of the numbers to fit preconceptions.

No Kool-Aid here. I just have my ear to the ground. Cutting like a fu**ing hammer, I'm like the Lone Ranger out here. I've already sent Tanto into town and I'm just waiting to ride into town to put the smack down.

Posted by: Birkel on November 1, 2004 04:00 AM

Even one with such an obviously Republican cut to my jib has friends in certain liberal circles around town (Manhattan, if you have to ask.) These guys give me lots of good scoop on these reporters, Nagourney being the reporter they hate but need. Why? First of all, he's an ass-bandit. And second, he is a sniveling, Andy Sullivan-type ass-bandit.

His ambition, his enthusiasm for his career is second only to his fixation with the "stinky starfish".

Posted by: spongeworthy on November 1, 2004 09:28 AM

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Top Headlines

Days before the woman was stabbed in the neck by a taxpayer-supported Cultural Enrichment Officer, in the same general area, another taxpayer-supported Cultural Enrichment Officer attacked a boy and bloodied his head with a brick.
What is the UK Regime's plan for protecting the citizens from the savage criminals they've foisted on the populace? They offer NONE. They do, however, have a plan for protecting the savage criminals from the citizens: The citizens must STAY CALM and not get angry and not share videos of citizens being attacked by savage criminals.
The public keeps saying "protect us from the foreign savages you have imported against our wishes and over our objections" and the UK branch of The Regime keeps proposing plans to protect the foreign savages from the public. Soclose to what the public is demanding, just, you know, the complete opposite.
Just a thought: Maybe you wouldn't have to worry about the public attacking the savage criminals if you actually introduced a plan to protect the public from the savage criminals. Maybe they wouldn't feel as if it was necessary for them to protect the public through self-help.

Courtney Subramiam, one of the "journalists" who "previewed" her questions for the decrepit and demented Biden so that he could "answer" it with a pre-scripted response, rewarded by promotion to president of the White House Press Corps

Bonchie
@bonchieredstate

hahahahaha

This is the lady who gave her question to Biden beforehand, and he had it written verbatim in his notes with her picture.

You know what's really terrible? There are Daily Signal reporters in the press room. That's the Real Scandal Here!

English racist garbage-person who's on the wrong side of history warns the corrupt Regime that the people cannot take much more of this -- and won't take much more of this
The English have rebelled before.

All of the various Bob Dylans
by Ace-Endorsed Author A.H. Lloyd

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You might think that movie critics by nature are effeminate and bitchy, but, did you know that grass is green and red peppers are red?

"We have black ghetto fatigue"

Odd 90s-Retro Susan Collins ad against the Nazi Hotchkiss "hobby farmer"
I like the throwback AOL style of the ad.

Podcast: Sefton and CBD bounce around from Maine and its pet Nazi, to the cracks in the Democrat messaging, to the failure of California and its effect on the 2028 election, sea drones rescuing Apache crews, and more!

Seattle mayor shrugs off millionaire-tax concerns as 44% of business leaders consider leaving
It happens in all the blue states, but WA and Seattle will be different! [CBD]

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VOTE JEFF CARTER FOR NV STATE TREASURER!
[CBD]

Mary Margaret Olohan
@MaryMargOlohan

NEW: Five FBI employees were fired today over the infamous Richmond Catholic memo on "radical traditionalist Catholics," FBI source confirms to @realDailyWire.

Oof. Reviewers do not like Scary Movie 6. The criticism I keep hearing is that the movie mistakes a reference for an actual joke. The movie (they say) keeps Key Jangling a reference to another movie (or some other pop culture ephemera) and you expect there to be a joke but nope, the Key Jangle was the joke. Other reviewers say that the promise that "no lines will be uncrossed" is a fake-out, and that the movie is bland and inoffensively corporate.

TJM introduces you to the movies of Alexander Mackendrick

Whoops! I posted about Dan Goldman losing the NY congressional primary. He might do that, but it won't be tonight -- the primary isn't held until June 23.

One race to keep an eye on: the Levi's heir nepo baby and egregious "Designated Liar" Dan Goldman -- one of the Democrats from a safe district Democrats send out to spread their most indefensible lies -- may actually lose his lower Manhattan/Brooklyn set due to, get this, antisemitism in the Democrat primary electorate.
Antisemitism? In the anti-Nazi Democrat Party? Sounds crazy, I know, but apparently the anti-Nazi Party wants to eliminate Jews.

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@bradlander: 57%

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Oh my Totenkopf Tattoo, that is a DRUBBING!
I'm usually very anti-antisemitism but if the Communist Antisemite Jihadists can pull this one off, Go Communist Antisemite Jihadists, Go!

Democrat Senator Rueben Gallego, who served his wife with divorce papers when she was nine months pregnant so that he could marry his side-piece, counsels us that we should not judge Graham Platner for his infidelity because these things are personal matters, Racists:

Sahil Kapur
@sahilkapur

Sen. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., on Platner: "We know that Graham has lived not your typical political experience. He's been very clear and open with his wife, and they worked through whatever they worked through. At the end of the day, this man has had 60 more town halls than Susan Collins has. He's winning the polls, he's willing to accept that he has grown as a person, and I think we should accept that."

Gallego says the drip-drip of revelations won't harm Platner's campaign.

"I think you guys are all in a bubble here right now. The drip, drip that's actually happening is Americans are really, really hurt the fact that gas is still high, food is still high, they can't buy a home, you can't afford rent. They're not going to care about text messages and everything else like that that happened years ago, especially when it was worked out between spouses."

I like that he says that it's okay that Graham Platner sexted 12 different women within months of marrying the woman to sponge off her because he wasn't then "living a political life" -- the clear meaning being, "We all cheat, we just don't cheat when we're running for office, and he didn't know he was running for office when he was sending dicpics to half the women he ran into."
Except he was running: His own wife turned the sexts over to his campaign.
And obviously Reuben Gallego didn't let his "political life" get in the way of his extramarital dating life:

Podcast: CBD goes solo in a short segment...talking about Iran, the nativist issues surrounding Reform and Restore in the UK, and the delicious pain of an imploding Democrat Party, courtesy of Talerico and Platner!

TJM ranks all of John Ford's films. All of them. TJM is very tired.