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October 31, 2004

Bush Leads by Three in Dem-Skewing CBSNYT Poll

OTOH, Frank Luntz says that Bush needs to be up by at least three in order to win (due to new voters and late-undecideds voting against him, plus, you know, fraud), so if this poll is merely accurate, Bush is still only fifty-fifty to prevail.

The article is worth reading, because it does endeavor to spin this as really bad news for Bush.

It's not just news-- it's hilarious liberal desperation.

Update: But the New York Times goes, as usual, a little farther.

If any of you are fans of Mickey Kaus, you know that Times' reporter Adam Nagourney is their go-to guy for liberal cocooning. For example, when the last NYT poll in 2002 showed a massive movement towards Republicans, Nagourney buried that interesting finding until nearly the end of the article, and wrote some idiotic article about the polls' findings about voter anxiety and the like. He gave it the following headline:

Poll Finds Americans Like Cheese

Okay, not that, but something equally anodyne and boring. The New York Times "newspaper" deliberately refused to report its own discovery of actual news in order to not distress its archliberal constituency.

At any rate, the latest NYT poll finds that Bush is ahead by three-- cause for some alarm to liberals, given the poll's Democratic skew.

And what's the headline?

In Final Days, Divided Electorate Expresses Anxiety.

Once again, Nagourney deliberately avoids mention of the actual news-making part of the poll in favor of a non-newsworthy headline that won't discombobulate liberals too much.

The first two paragraphs:

The nation is girding for tomorrow's presidential election, worried about the integrity of the voting system, divided over the legitimacy of President Bush's election four years ago and anxious about the future no matter who wins the contest, according to the final New York Times/CBS News Poll of the 2004 campaign.
The poll shows that Mr. Bush and his opponent, Senator John Kerry, remain locked in a statistical tie as they head into the final 48 hours of the race. But the poll registered an increase in Mr. Bush's job approval rating, as well as an increase in the number of Americans who said the nation was heading in the right direction. Republicans described this as evidence that Mr. Bush was picking up speed in these closing days of the campaign, but Democrats dismissed the numbers, saying that both figures remain dangerously low for an incumbent.

Nagourney waits until the sixth paragraph to actually let you know Bush is up 49-46-- not really a "statistical tie" at all, because any statistician can tell you that any lead indicates at least the probability that one man is ahead, even if you can't be sure of the margin. This lead isn't big, but neither is it tiny.

Nagourney has waited far, far longer in his articles to inform his readers of what the poll actually says. He's slipping a bit. I expect better/worse from him.

Loose shit, Adam.

posted by Ace at 10:21 PM

Comments

Try deciphering the new Gallop poll. Bush down in fl and OH up by 4 in PA? they are on crack. It is totally ass backwards. I think the polls are shit this year more so than usual. Just better get everyone to vote.

Heard 500 old folks die a day in florida or something bizarre like that earlier and they are having poll workers check obits for dead voters to watch out for.

Bush should win this handily. If he loses it will not be for not fighting the fight. When they are not playing by the same rules it makes it hard to win.

Posted by: jennifer on October 31, 2004 10:37 PM

Oy. 2 days. I feel like the guy pounding on the rail and screaming during the last lap of a horserace.

Posted by: Russell Wardlow on October 31, 2004 10:43 PM

I'm starting to understand the whole "icing the kicker" thing too.

Posted by: Joe R. the Unabrewer on October 31, 2004 10:46 PM

In this poll, 71% said they are as well off or better than they were four years ago. Doesn't sound like the Great Depression to me.

Posted by: on October 31, 2004 11:03 PM

I don't know if I can understand all this wacky, esoteric poll number gobblygook without Kim Richards to explain it to me, Ace.

Posted by: Alex on October 31, 2004 11:50 PM

That is what I'd call "objective reporting" from the Times. After all, they didn't make things up.

Posted by: jb on November 1, 2004 12:23 AM

Tha weekend polls are straight garbage..

First off, It's been pointed out all over the blogoshpere, that Bush folks are attending Friday night football games, second, it's Holloween weekend! All the good mommies and daddies are out doing what they do with tha kiddies.. This leaves either A)people who hate football or B)people who hate kids -- at home, answering the phone.

I'd take these last poll numbers -- wad em'up,-- do a Kerry-Jump-throw with em' right into the waste basket. I'd also like for someone to please stick a bloody sock in Terry Macoluf's mouth every time he mentions the exit polls showing Kerry ahead with people who've already voted in Iowa and Florida. That stuff is crap to.

Its all crap.

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Posted by: Raymond on November 1, 2004 03:16 AM

49-46.
Hmm.
That would mean there are 4% undecided if you assume at least 1% for Nader or Bednarak or whomever, combined.

The incumbent rule, which has only been true in 4 of the last 6 elections, says people break against the incumbent 2 to 1. It is of course horsesh**. But, that would still leave Bush winning the popular vote.

But all of the above is nonsense. Expect Bush to win 5 or 6 states that are 'surprises' to the media. They're not surprises. They're figured out of the numbers to fit preconceptions.

No Kool-Aid here. I just have my ear to the ground. Cutting like a fu**ing hammer, I'm like the Lone Ranger out here. I've already sent Tanto into town and I'm just waiting to ride into town to put the smack down.

Posted by: Birkel on November 1, 2004 04:00 AM

Even one with such an obviously Republican cut to my jib has friends in certain liberal circles around town (Manhattan, if you have to ask.) These guys give me lots of good scoop on these reporters, Nagourney being the reporter they hate but need. Why? First of all, he's an ass-bandit. And second, he is a sniveling, Andy Sullivan-type ass-bandit.

His ambition, his enthusiasm for his career is second only to his fixation with the "stinky starfish".

Posted by: spongeworthy on November 1, 2004 09:28 AM

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Top Headlines

Forgotten 90s Mystery Click
Too much walkin', shoes worn thin
Too much trippin' and my soul's worn thin
Time to catch a ride, it leaves today, her name is what it means
Too much walkin', shoes worn thin
Damn I used to love this one. It's definitely a driving-around, looking-for-trouble kind of song.

Both Michigan's Appeals Court and North Carolina's Supreme Court have reversed lower (Hawaiian judge) rulings keeping RFKJr.'s name on the ballot. Democrats want to keep his name on the ballot because they don't want RFKJr.'s voters voting for the man RFKJr. endorsed, Trump. Republicans want him off (as RFKJr. himself demanded) so that they will.

Remember, it was RFKJr. himself who filed to remove his name from the ballot. Democrat judges said "no, you have to stay on the ballot, to help Kamala." I mean, they didn't say that last part out loud -- but that's the reason. Nice election news for Team Trump:

@SteveLovesAmmo

BREAKING: Michigan Appeals Court just ordered that RFK Jr.'s name will be taken off the ballot!

Leading Report
@LeadingReport

BREAKING: North Carolina Court of Appeals has ordered Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s name to be taken off the general election ballot in the state.

Via John Ekdahl and our own weft-cut loop

Interesting etymology: "sullen" originally meant "solitary," but by the 14th century had picked up the meaning of "morose" or "gloomy," and now only means that. Hey, not all solitary people are gloomy!
I looked it up because Tolkein used the word in describing "sullen hills," meaning gloomy. It struck me as a cool word to apply to hills (rather than a person or a face).

This YouTuber took a photo of himself every day for 22 years, from age 25 to 47. [CBD]

Clarification: Stepanopolous won't be the moderator. It will be ABC's "News's" 7pm anchor, David Muir, and "some Disney bint," as a commenter says, an ABC "Prime" "journalist" named Linsey Davis. Obviously she is a Stronk Woman of Color because of course.
Here's ABC "News" "journalist" and debate "moderator" Linsey Davis sitting down with Kamala Harris to give her a puffball Speaking Opportunity to talk up the importance of abortion
By the way, Linsey Davis is a "proud member" of the mostly-black sorority Alpha Kappa Alpha. If that sounds familiar to you, it's because Kamala Harris promotes the sorority, and it is devoted to promoting her.

"Ben Had" has been in contact with commenter "JT," and he is on the road to recovery and appreciates all of the prayers!

Popular gun Youtuber Paul Harrell has died. Love him or hate him, he created a lot of interesting content. [dri]

UC Berkeley slapped with federal civil rights complaint, accused of 'unlawful' racial discrimination "Haas clearly tells students the program is intended for 'Latinx/Hispanic' students, setting up a barrier that would deter other students from applying." [CBD]

Chalk up another victory for the IDF. [Mis. Hum.]

Forgotten 70s Yacht Rock Mystery Click
Another easy one -- I don't want anyone working too hard on Labor Day weekend.
Friday night, it was late, I was walking you home
We got down to the gate and I was dreaming of the night
Would it turn out right

The Official History of Yacht Rock

Forgotten Very Early 80s Soft Rock Mystery Click
Let's make this super-easy, barely an inconvenience for Labor Day. You don't have to name the band, just the song:
Well, make a wish, baby
And I will make it come true
Make a list baby, of the things I'll do for you

I was talking about Vince Vaughan movies with Pug Mahon and other commenters. Even when his movies are mid, or romantic comedy dreck, he always has a least one scene that's a scream. In The Break-Up, he revisits his hilarious video-game trash-talking from Swingers, this time humiliating a child he's playing online and then Jennifer Anniston's date.
His funniest stuff is what can be called "aggressive, bullying Alpha Chad whining and complaining." Or just straight-up rage freak-outs.
And of course his Swingers trash-talk is a classic in the field

Murder, manslaughter, adultery, addiction, sexual assault and rape aren't enough to get you disowned by the low-rent white trash Hillbillies of Hyanisport, but endorsing Trump is

BurtTC writes:

I listened to Dave Smith's podcast with Nicole Shanahan. At some point you have to ask, people who genuinely consider themselves to be good, and still vote Democrat... how do you not know you are supporting the most evil people to ever exert power in this country? Whatever your grievances against Republicans and Don Trump (many of which are perfectly valid), how do you not see this for what it is?

Nicole is a very reasonable person, and while she lacks the name recognition of RFK, in many ways she even a better spokeperson for this very point.

That podcast is here. It's an hour long. I'll ask Burt about where she talks about this.

Forgotten 80s Mystery Click
I totally forgot this one until five minutes ago. I had no memory of it at all.
I got no means to show identification
I got no papers show you what I am
You'll have to take me just the way that you find me
What's gone is gone and I do not give a damn

Duran Duran "View to a Kill" Bond medley from Coachella 2011

Flashback: When Harris cackled when asked about the 13 murdered servicemen
Bringing joy

Former Clinton adviser Mark Penn: Kamala ducking the media and refusing to debate is "unacceptable" in a democracy
It's only a fake democracy now-- the Regime is barely pretending it's anything else than an oligarchy.

Jim Acosta flacks for Biden-Harris: Trump was "politicizing" the deaths of the thirteen service members so aren't Biden and Harris the Real Heroes Here for blowing it off?
Harris won't even sit down with this obvious DNC plant. If Kamala's too scared to sit down with Jim Acosta, how can she be expected to stand up to Vladimir Putin?