Wednesday Morning Rant

Based on reports yesterday, it looks like this chapter in the Texas "flee-bagger" saga is coming to an end. The Senate passed the gerrymander, the House session is going to expire, and Abbott will start a new one. And then another. And then another for as long as it takes and so on if needed. The Democrats fleeing will sock away whatever lucre they got and eventually, the gerrymander will probably pass. Maybe there will be an expulsion or arrest or prosecution, but I wouldn't bet on it.

But I think the most interesting side show happened last week. Abbott offered his assurances that the gerrymander will be completed, and added an escalation that proved popular:

You know, what I'm thinking now, is if they don't start showing up, I may start expanding it. We may make it six or seven or eight new seats we're going to be adding to the Republican side.

I am not sure, but I may be the only person on the right who saw this who didn't like it. This threat is either empty or serious, but it strikes me as troubling either way. If it's empty, it doesn't inspire confidence because empty threats carry no weight. If the magic number doesn't grow, it's shown as bluster. It will have no effect other than increasing the smirks of the Texas Democrats who, despite the fact that they will probably lose this battle, will also surely try to use it for their benefit. As a campaign ad about how nasty those Republicans will be next time to raise more money, or an opportunity to insult Abbott, or both, they will find a use for it.

But it's much more troubling if the threat is shown to be serious. If the threat is real and achievable, then it invites a question that needs to be answered: "if you could get eight, why did you target five? Why did you leave three more reps on the table instead of going for it?" If the threat is serious, then it means that the Texas GOP could have done much more than it did and made the margins even wider, if it could have been bothered to do so.

There is a reason why the GOP is so often viewed as weak, spineless and stupid and this is an example of it. If the Texas GOP could have gone +8 and settled for +5, they need a very good explanation for why they chose to settle on five. And there well could be such an explanation (for example, to get the Dems to privately capitulate and increase the odds of overall success at the smaller scale), not that it has been offered. Instead, Abbott just cracked wise about running up the score without pausing to consider that somebody might wonder just why they chose not to run up the score when they had the chance.

That, or there is no way they can possibly get eight and it's just a red meat soundbite for his side, and he threw it out with the full knowledge that there's no there there - in which case, the Democrats know it, too. Abbott's threat to run up the seat count is baffling because there is no upside that I can see. He potentially gets cornered for making empty threats, or he exposes the Texas GOP as unwilling to be the bloodthirsty bulldogs they pretend to be, who instead incompletely capitalize on their opportunities to win and win big.

Though I am quite confident - and pleased - that the Texas gerrymander is probably going to pass, I admit to being more than a bit puzzled as to why anyone thinks that boasting about it being a halfway measure is a good idea.

posted by Joe Mannix at 11:00 AM

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