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October 26, 2004

A Bit o' Optimism

Some of you think I'm being a nervous Nelly. Well, I'm just telling you my gut, which frankly changes week-by-week. If you want to prove me wrong-- vote.

But just to inject a little optimism into the discussion, Hugh Hewitt interviewed the indispensible political analyst Michael Barrone, a man who has a reputation that's more important to him than political pimping. He says that Bush could win 35-36 states.

That's not as big a statement as it may read at first blush; for one thing, a lot of things could happen. I could, for example, be hired on as Paula Zahn's guest-host for election week.

For another, we already know (or at least we hope!) that Bush is going to win a majority of states, but many of those states are pretty small.

Still, sounds kinda good to me.

I'm confused. How can you be both
so insightful and so goshdarn funny at once?
You're like James Spader in Tuff Turf, only
hotter, and without the slightly
Cornelius-from-Planet-of-the-Apes nostrils.

Update: Hugh Hewitt also links an article further exploring John Kerry's continuing insistence on posing as a "real man" and "regular guy" who "really digs this crazy new sport of 'Base-Ball' that's so popular with the masses" and yet who continues incorrectly announcing the scores of Red Sox games.

He reminds me of Dennis Finch from Just Shoot Me, a geeky guy lying to his wife in an effort to appear more manly. When Finch was actually exhibiting his prized Abyssinian at a cat-show, he claimed to have been playing rugby. "It was rough stuff," he said. "Lots of blood. I scored two tabernacles and a walkabout."

Go Sox! Really knock those tabernacles out of the park.

Is There Such a Thing as Too Much Kim Richards: CNN/Gallup/USAT have Bush up by 8, 51-43, in Florida.

Oddly enough, Florida is shaping up to be semi-safe for Bush.

That CNN article is pretty funny. Although the main hed announces their own poll shows Bush beating the crap out of Kerry, a sub-hed is quick -- too quick, one might say -- to announce that other polls show the contest tighter.

Once again, the liberal media seems to be rather begrudging about their own polls when they show the wrong man ahead.

posted by Ace at 01:56 AM

Comments

Hijacking this thread too:

Was it Tuff Turf that opened with the guy riding a bike and singing, boo-bop-a-lee-bop, my baby?

Cause I kinda thought it was but I might be confused because I thought that was Matt Dillon doing that, not James Spader.

But I was all wet about Switek being played by Chris Penn the other day, too, so I'll look to this group of Tuff Turf experts to straighten me out.

Good to hear that from Barone. Hewitt's predictions along this line seemed a little fanciful but this is a nice boost.

Posted by: See Dubya on October 26, 2004 02:16 AM

I actually don't know. I only half-saw parts of it at a party. I had never heard of the movie before. I asked a guy, "Why are you showing this stupid movie?" and he said, "Kim Richards, man." And so I watched her dance around a bit, but what the movie was about, I could not say.

It seemed to involve James Spader on a motorcycle and Kim Richards playing a Madonna-clone called "Frankie" or something.

Posted by: ace on October 26, 2004 02:55 AM

She also was in the sitcom "Nanny and the Professor"

Posted by: ordi on October 26, 2004 03:04 AM

Hewitt: Interesting that comes out in the Scotsman, not an American paper.

Florida: This is Kim Richards in a white sequined push-up bathing suit, blazing away with a .454 Casull, driving a Jaguar with Tawny Kitaen on the hood banging a cowbell good news.

Tuff Turf: I saw it at a friends' house and I think, looking back, he may have been more interested in James Spader or whoever the Boobopaleebop guy was cause he replayed that like eight times.

Posted by: on October 26, 2004 03:23 AM

That was me with the boobopaleebop stuff.

HD Miller called Kerry "Senator von Munchausen" (over at travellingshoes.blogspot.com) for his goofy exaggerations, like "running" the Boston marathon. Here's another one in the Munchausen files.

Posted by: See Dubya on October 26, 2004 03:26 AM

Kim Richards....now there's a blast from the past! She rocked as Tia in "Escape To Witch Mountain" with Ike Eisenman.

Posted by: Da Goddess on October 26, 2004 04:33 AM

Unfortunately, the Kim Richards nude scene in "Tuff Turf" used a body double. When I learned that, a little light went out of my life. Don't forget that everyone's favorite drug user, Robert Downey Jr., was also in that movie.

Posted by: Brass on October 26, 2004 09:53 AM

Tuff Turf?

How on earth did that come up? I have not thought about that film in 10 years!!! Why would I?

I do not feel as alone in the world as I did when I woke up this morning. What a strange, strange reaction to a obscure movie reference.

Thank you, Ace.

Posted by: Tom Vaugahn on October 26, 2004 10:19 AM

Ace, all you need to know about this coming election is where the candidates are campaigning. Yesterday Komrade Kerry and Comrade Clinton were campaigning in Philly, an area that should be so solidly locked in for them that they wouldn't bother.
Yesterday Dubya was campaigning in Iowa, a state that the Gorebot took in '00.
Forget the polls, look where the candidates are campaigning.
Oh, since my wife has a gun...who is Kim Richards?

Posted by: Peter on October 26, 2004 12:48 PM

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Chris
@chriswithans

"Ahhhhh ahh I put my career on the line for Louise Lucas and Jay Jones thinking they'd vault me into presidential contention and we ended up costing Democrats 20 House seats and unleashing a Reverse Dobbs ahhhhh ahhh"

Forgotten 80s Mystery Click That Sums Up the Democrat Communist Party Today
Something is wrong as I hold you near
Somebody else holds your heart, yeah
You turn to me with your icy tears
And then it's raining, feels like it's raining

TJM wonders about world building in stories, mostly The Hunger Games

"It's f**king f**ked."
-- reportedly a genuine comment offered by a "senior Labour source"
Correction: I wrote that Labour is losing 88% (now 87%) of the seats it is "defending." I think that's wrong. The right way to say it is the seats they are contesting -- that is, they don't necessarily already hold these seats, but they have put up a candidate to run for the seat. It's still very bad but not as bad as losing 87% of the seats they already held.

Basil the Great
@BasilTheGreat

🚨ED MILIBAND [a Minister in Starmer's government] SAYS KEIR STARMER WILL RESIGN AS PRIME MINISTER

He has reportedly reassured Labour MP's that Starmer will be resigning following the disastrous results tonight

It's over

"The end of the two party system in the UK" as first the Fake Conservatives and now Labour chooses political suicide rather than simply STOPPING THE INVASION
Incidentally, the only reason this didn't already happen in the US is because of the Very Bad Orange Man (who is right on 85% of all policy calls and extremely, existentially right on 15% of them)

No political party that is NOT also a doomsday religious cult would EVER choose a cataclysmic loss -- and possible extinction as a party -- to support a toxically unpopular favoritism of NON-CITIZEN ILLEGAL MIGRANTS over actual citizen voters.

Only a cult does this.

Now they've lost 84%.

Annunziata Rees-Mogg
@zatzi
If this continues Labour loses 2,148 seats tonight.

That is much worse than the worst case predictions I’ve seen.

Cataclysmic

Update: They've now lost 88% of the seats they're defending. As I mentioned earlier, I think I heard that London will not bail them out, as many of those Labour seats will probably flip to "Muslim Independent" or Green. Detroit's 5am vote will not save them.

Yup, Labour is losing 80% of its seats...

The British Patriot
@TheBritLad

🚨 BREAKING: Labour have lost 80% of all seats contested as of 2:25 AM.<
br> If this continues, Keir Starmer will be out of office next week.

Reform has surged and projected to pick up between 1700-2100 seats.

Wow, up to 1700-2100 seats. It's not incredible that this is happening. It's incredible that the Davos crowd is so absolutely determined to privilege Muslim "migrants" over the actual native population who elects them, no matter how loudly the natives scream that they want to be prioritized, that they will gladly self-extinguish as a party rather than simply representing the interests of their own voters. Astonishing.
Remember, when they call other people "cultists" -- they are the ones so imprisoned in their social reinforcement and discipline bubbles that they will choose political death rather than dare upset the Karen Enforcement Officers of their cult.
Update: Now they've lost 83% of the seats they were defending.

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges

Reform are basically wiping Labour out in the North. It's not a defeat. It's not even a rout. Labour are simply ceasing to exist.

Nick Lowles
@lowles_nick

Tonight’s results are calamitous for Labour. Not just for Keir Starmer's leadership, but for the very future of the party

STARMERGEDDON: In early returns, Reform gains 135 seats, Labour loses 90, the Fake Conservatives lose 36 (and I didn't even know they could fall any further), the Lib Dems lose 4, and the Greens gain 6. Note that the only other party gaining seats is the Greens and they're only gaining a handful of seats.
Update: Reform now up 145, Labour down 98.
Labour projected to lose Wales -- where they've ruled for 27 years.
Fulton County Georgia just discovered 400 boxes of ballots for Labour
Update: REF +156, LAB -107, CON -45
Brutal: In four out of five council seats where Labour is defending, they've lost. 80%.
I'm sure it's not this simple, but Reform is straight taking Labour's and the "Conservatives'" seats. They've lost almost exactly what Reform gained. If understand this right (and warning, I probably don't), all of London's council seats are up for election, and Labour might lose hugely there, as their old voters abandon them for Reform, Muslim Indenpendents, and the Greens.
REF +190, LAB -134, CON -56.

Updates on the Labour collapse in council elections -- which wags are calling #Starmergeddon -- from Beege Welborne. There are about 5000 seats up for grabs, Labour is expected to lose 1,800, Reform will probably gain 1,580, up from... zero. So this would be more than that.
People claim that while Labour has adopted the Sharia Agenda to appeal to the million Muslims it allowed to migrate to the country, those voters are ditching Labour to vote for the Muslim Independent Party or the Greens. Delicious. This shadenfreude is going straight to my thighs.
Oh, and if Starmer loses about as badly as expected, Labour will toss him out of a window Braveheart style and replace him. He will announce he is resigning to spend more time with his Gay Ukrainian Male Prostitutes.

Media bias and senationalism are as old as, well, the media:

That was written by Denny O'Neill and illustrated by, get this, Frank Miller. Editor to the Stars Jim Shooter was in charge at the time.
I always thought the gag was original to the comic book, but in fact the "Threat or Menace" headline was a satirical joke about media bias and sensationalism for a long while. The Harvard Lampoon used it in a parody of Life magazine: "Flying Saucers: Threat or Menace?"

Hamas is Humiliating Trump's 'Board of Peace'
[Hat Tip: TC] [CBD]

Tucker Carlson is pretty sure Trump is a wizard

Ted Turner Dies At 87 [CBD]

Podcast: Starting a new season, CBD and Sefton discuss their personal journeys to conservative principles, is Nick Shirley the beginning of a trend?, Iran trying to reignite the war, the Left attacks itself, even on "Best Guitarist" lists, and more!

TJM definitively ranks the films of Billy Wilder, like Some Like It Hot

TJM talks about Billy Wilder

Democrat Congresswoman Sara Jacobs cites Me-Again Kelly, Cavernous Nostrils, Alex Jones and Tuq'r Qarlson as proof that concerns about Trump's mental health are "bipartisan"
As Bonchie from Red State says: Know the op when you see it.