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October 18, 2004
Real Clear Politics: Bush Leads Electoral Count, But He's Not Over 270I'm just posting this because I love the way all that red looks. There are a couple of unwelcome surprises there. New Hampshire is now in Kerry's column, and Ohio is slightly leaning towards Kerry (although so slightly that RCP calls it a toss-up). Minnesota, which ought to be getable and could shatter Kerry's hopes by going for Bush, nevertheless remains a blue state. On the other hand, it appears as though Bush could afford to lose Ohio-- but only if he picks up toss-ups Wisconsin and Iowa. I wouldn't bet the farm on that, but it's nice to know there's an out if Bush doesn't pick up the Ohio card. The Iowa Electronic Markets continue showing a belief in Bush's odds. posted by Ace at 03:20 AM
CommentsNew Hampshire's been blue all year, Ace - you obviously haven't been watching. Minnesota won't go red unless enough other states go first that it won't matter. Pennsylvania is unlikely to be red without Ohio going red first, but either one ends it. Wisconsin only just went toss-up, and has been leaning Bush through thick and thin until now. With Wisconsin, you'd only need Iowa OR New Mexico to win, even without Ohio. All of this is actually a shift toward Kerry within the last few days. That would sound bad if it weren't for the fact that things were going toward Bush all through the debates. Moral of that story is the polls in the states (and thus the electoral count) apparently lag behind the trend we see in the national polls. So the recent Bush surge should be seen in the electoral count next week - just in time to poop all over the Dems when they need to see good news most. And, again, all this presumes the polls are accurate, which they aren't. Every single state I mentioned above will end up red on election night. To. The. Bank. Posted by: The Black Republican on October 18, 2004 08:39 AM
If you likethe color Red, you'll love the AOL Straw poll for October: http://www.electionguide04.com/straw_poll_october.adp Posted by: Donna on October 18, 2004 08:43 AM
Not giving up on New Hampshire, yet. Bush and Cheney have been making routine trips to Manchester, et al during the past months. Aside, when did Hawaii, Rhode Island, and Alaska pull even/ahead of Deleware in electoral votes. If you post a blog in Deleware...does anyone read it? Posted by: sonofnixon on October 18, 2004 08:45 AM
Wow, Donna. That's a whole lotta red Posted by: sonofnixon on October 18, 2004 08:47 AM
I don't know if it is true or not but supposedly a poll released last night said Oregon had gone Red. Any truth to that? Posted by: carl on October 18, 2004 10:38 AM
I'm in NE Ohio, and just yesterday, they were reporting on the news that Kerry is losing ground in areas of the state that he used to hold firmly. They quoted close numbers (52-48 to Kerry), and said that this only included major cities, and ignored all the Bush lovin' country folk. Posted by: DelphiGuy on October 18, 2004 11:53 AM
DU was debunking the OR poll yesterday. Their complaint was that Riley is a republican shill and that he sampled 3% more repubs than dems. One interesting number from the poll that isn't affected by the whole oversampling question is that only 80% of dems polled were voting for Kerry. Have the dems considered that 1 in 5 of all their newly registered voters may not vote for their candidate? Posted by: rw on October 18, 2004 12:30 PM
Ohio will not go Kerry. Neither will Oregon. Trust me on this--or rather, just remember the ballot initiatives on gay marriage in those states. Ain't. Gonna. Happen. Posted by: Anthony Perez-Miller on October 18, 2004 01:30 PM
I don't know if it is true or not but supposedly a poll released last night said Oregon had gone Red. Any truth to that? Well, I know a Riley poll -- whatever that is -- shows Bush up by 5 since last week or so. I don't know what we can make of that, as other polls disagree. Posted by: ace on October 18, 2004 01:36 PM
I have been tracking an Electoral Count projection by using the Tradesports state contract prices since October 4th. I am not doing anything greatly sophisticated and I haven't posted up the last three days yet but Bush is holding at 291 vs. Kerry at 247. New Hampshire swung to Kerry a little over a week ago. Pensylvania has gone from "solid" Kerry to "soft" Kerry. Florida, Ohio, Iowa, and Wisconsin are all "soft" Bush. I use $0-$33.9 as "Solid" Kerry, $34-$50.9 as "Soft" Kerry, $51-$67 as "Soft" Bush and $67.1-$100 as "Solid" Bush. You can view the files in a variety of formats at http://www.horsescare.com/horsepuckey/EVFILES/. My not-very-active blog is Horsepuckey. Posted by: DJ on October 18, 2004 03:31 PM
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You might think that movie critics by nature are effeminate and bitchy, but, did you know that grass is green and red peppers are red?
Odd 90s-Retro Susan Collins ad against the Nazi Hotchkiss "hobby farmer"
I like the throwback AOL style of the ad.
Seattle mayor shrugs off millionaire-tax concerns as 44% of business leaders consider leaving
It happens in all the blue states, but WA and Seattle will be different! [CBD] Mary Margaret Olohan
Oof. Reviewers do not like Scary Movie 6. The criticism I keep hearing is that the movie mistakes a reference for an actual joke. The movie (they say) keeps Key Jangling a reference to another movie (or some other pop culture ephemera) and you expect there to be a joke but nope, the Key Jangle was the joke. Other reviewers say that the promise that "no lines will be uncrossed" is a fake-out, and that the movie is bland and inoffensively corporate.
Whoops! I posted about Dan Goldman losing the NY congressional primary. He might do that, but it won't be tonight -- the primary isn't held until June 23.
One race to keep an eye on: the Levi's heir nepo baby and egregious "Designated Liar" Dan Goldman -- one of the Democrats from a safe district Democrats send out to spread their most indefensible lies -- may actually lose his lower Manhattan/Brooklyn set due to, get this, antisemitism in the Democrat primary electorate.
Antisemitism? In the anti-Nazi Democrat Party? Sounds crazy, I know, but apparently the anti-Nazi Party wants to eliminate Jews. Henry Rosoff Oh my Totenkopf Tattoo, that is a DRUBBING! I'm usually very anti-antisemitism but if the Communist Antisemite Jihadists can pull this one off, Go Communist Antisemite Jihadists, Go!
Democrat Senator Rueben Gallego, who served his wife with divorce papers when she was nine months pregnant so that he could marry his side-piece, counsels us that we should not judge Graham Platner for his infidelity because these things are personal matters, Racists:
Sahil Kapur I like that he says that it's okay that Graham Platner sexted 12 different women within months of marrying the woman to sponge off her because he wasn't then "living a political life" -- the clear meaning being, "We all cheat, we just don't cheat when we're running for office, and he didn't know he was running for office when he was sending dicpics to half the women he ran into." Except he was running: His own wife turned the sexts over to his campaign. And obviously Reuben Gallego didn't let his "political life" get in the way of his extramarital dating life: ![]()
Funny -- if you don't mind clicking on TikTok. "Amy.Pranks.22" set up an AI scam-call screener which replies to a foreign scammer trying to get her bank information with Trumpian bluster. This might be fake because I don't see how a program can respond in real time, but it's funny.
Food Thread Pizza Dough Recipe
The ULA rocket just launched
Thanks to Joyenz The rocket's enormous engines are fueled by "the volcanic heterosexual lust between James Talarico and his Neighbor With a Uterus 'girlfriend'" I hope Amazon's rocket works better than the Amazon Prime app does as far as allowing people to watch the black and white version of "Spider-Noir" From the CA Post: Thanks to beckster
Just like "Spartacus" Corey Booker, now that James Talarico is running for a higher office, he unveils his previously-unknown "girlfriend" and hooboy, it just so happens she used to work for him, and, get this, likes to "dance the night away" at gay bars
Gee I wonder where they might have met Oh and she's a vegan When Corey Booker needed a "girlfriend," he conjured up known LGBTQ activist Rosario Dawson. How convenient that when these guys need a girlfriend to show off to the normies that just happen to find an activist with a strong history of and interest in Supporting Gay Men But seriously, this James Talarico romance with a Neighbor with a Uterus is a love story for the ages. The passion of their lovemaking is hotter than a blue star with a core of Primordial Sex Atoms created in the Big Bang Recent Comments
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