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October 18, 2004
Real Clear Politics: Bush Leads Electoral Count, But He's Not Over 270I'm just posting this because I love the way all that red looks. There are a couple of unwelcome surprises there. New Hampshire is now in Kerry's column, and Ohio is slightly leaning towards Kerry (although so slightly that RCP calls it a toss-up). Minnesota, which ought to be getable and could shatter Kerry's hopes by going for Bush, nevertheless remains a blue state. On the other hand, it appears as though Bush could afford to lose Ohio-- but only if he picks up toss-ups Wisconsin and Iowa. I wouldn't bet the farm on that, but it's nice to know there's an out if Bush doesn't pick up the Ohio card. The Iowa Electronic Markets continue showing a belief in Bush's odds. posted by Ace at 03:20 AM
CommentsNew Hampshire's been blue all year, Ace - you obviously haven't been watching. Minnesota won't go red unless enough other states go first that it won't matter. Pennsylvania is unlikely to be red without Ohio going red first, but either one ends it. Wisconsin only just went toss-up, and has been leaning Bush through thick and thin until now. With Wisconsin, you'd only need Iowa OR New Mexico to win, even without Ohio. All of this is actually a shift toward Kerry within the last few days. That would sound bad if it weren't for the fact that things were going toward Bush all through the debates. Moral of that story is the polls in the states (and thus the electoral count) apparently lag behind the trend we see in the national polls. So the recent Bush surge should be seen in the electoral count next week - just in time to poop all over the Dems when they need to see good news most. And, again, all this presumes the polls are accurate, which they aren't. Every single state I mentioned above will end up red on election night. To. The. Bank. Posted by: The Black Republican on October 18, 2004 08:39 AM
If you likethe color Red, you'll love the AOL Straw poll for October: http://www.electionguide04.com/straw_poll_october.adp Posted by: Donna on October 18, 2004 08:43 AM
Not giving up on New Hampshire, yet. Bush and Cheney have been making routine trips to Manchester, et al during the past months. Aside, when did Hawaii, Rhode Island, and Alaska pull even/ahead of Deleware in electoral votes. If you post a blog in Deleware...does anyone read it? Posted by: sonofnixon on October 18, 2004 08:45 AM
Wow, Donna. That's a whole lotta red Posted by: sonofnixon on October 18, 2004 08:47 AM
I don't know if it is true or not but supposedly a poll released last night said Oregon had gone Red. Any truth to that? Posted by: carl on October 18, 2004 10:38 AM
I'm in NE Ohio, and just yesterday, they were reporting on the news that Kerry is losing ground in areas of the state that he used to hold firmly. They quoted close numbers (52-48 to Kerry), and said that this only included major cities, and ignored all the Bush lovin' country folk. Posted by: DelphiGuy on October 18, 2004 11:53 AM
DU was debunking the OR poll yesterday. Their complaint was that Riley is a republican shill and that he sampled 3% more repubs than dems. One interesting number from the poll that isn't affected by the whole oversampling question is that only 80% of dems polled were voting for Kerry. Have the dems considered that 1 in 5 of all their newly registered voters may not vote for their candidate? Posted by: rw on October 18, 2004 12:30 PM
Ohio will not go Kerry. Neither will Oregon. Trust me on this--or rather, just remember the ballot initiatives on gay marriage in those states. Ain't. Gonna. Happen. Posted by: Anthony Perez-Miller on October 18, 2004 01:30 PM
I don't know if it is true or not but supposedly a poll released last night said Oregon had gone Red. Any truth to that? Well, I know a Riley poll -- whatever that is -- shows Bush up by 5 since last week or so. I don't know what we can make of that, as other polls disagree. Posted by: ace on October 18, 2004 01:36 PM
I have been tracking an Electoral Count projection by using the Tradesports state contract prices since October 4th. I am not doing anything greatly sophisticated and I haven't posted up the last three days yet but Bush is holding at 291 vs. Kerry at 247. New Hampshire swung to Kerry a little over a week ago. Pensylvania has gone from "solid" Kerry to "soft" Kerry. Florida, Ohio, Iowa, and Wisconsin are all "soft" Bush. I use $0-$33.9 as "Solid" Kerry, $34-$50.9 as "Soft" Kerry, $51-$67 as "Soft" Bush and $67.1-$100 as "Solid" Bush. You can view the files in a variety of formats at http://www.horsescare.com/horsepuckey/EVFILES/. My not-very-active blog is Horsepuckey. Posted by: DJ on October 18, 2004 03:31 PM
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Lost Seventies Mystery Click: The Darkest Song Ever Recorded?
I think Professor of Rock (on YouTube) claimed this song was so upsetting that people used to pull over to the side of the road when it came on the radio. It's about a fatal plane crash, but obviously it suggests a fatal car crash too, which could wig out a driver. It's like one of those nasty 70s anti-war body horror movies. Not for the squeamish. I'm not even going to post the lyrics because they're upsetting too.
Compilation of Naked Gun intros
That theme gets me charged. Compilation of all Police Squad! openings. They're all the same except for the last few seconds where they reveal the Special Guest Star and the title(s).
Pitch Meeting: Amazon's new, terrible War of the Worlds
I don't know why these tech monopolists spend so much money on ripoff/sequel/remake slop. I like popcorn entertainment but is it legally required to be terrible?
Lost 90s Mystery Click: College Radio Edition
Well you look fantastic in your cast-off casket At least the thing still runs This nine to five bullshit don't let you forget Whose suicide you're on. Also: You wax poetic about things pathetic As long as you look so cute Believe these hills are starting to roll Believe these stars are starting to shoot ![]()
Forgotten 80s Mystery Click: Garrett's Favorite Band Edition
Everybody wants you Everybody wants your love I'd just like to make you mine, all mine
Baylor Coach Dave Aranda Apologizes for 'Ableism' After Using the Word 'Midget'
Well, he is also disabled...he is a eunuch [CBD] I'm frankly surprised the title is 107 Days. I would have thought it would be:
Soft weak poop from the early 80s Mystery Click
I never liked this song, but it is memorable. In a weak, annoying way. The kid's in shock up and down the block The folks are home playing beat the clock Down at the golden cup They set the young ones up Under the neon light Selling day for night It's alright Nobody rides for free (nobody, nobody) Nobody gets it like they want it to be (nobody, nobody) Nobody hands you any guarantee (nobody, nobody) Nobody
Flashback: UCLA allows terror-supporting thugs to set up and maintain checkpoints to keep Jews out of campus buildings
More video of the anti-Jewish checkpoints A major university allowed this and defended this.
Earthquake off Russian coast sends tsunami waves towards Hawaii:
Nick Sortor Coastal evacuation ordered in Honolulu Warnings for the California coast as well. Impact expected at 12:15
Former CIA operative John Kiriakou talks with Matt Taibbi about the Brennan/Comey Coup
Both guys are old liberals, maybe even of the far-left variety, and both are appalled by the Democrat/Deep State coup against the US. Kiriakou says that CIA officers were legally obligated to report to the Inspector General John Brennan's repeated overruling of actual intelligence to encode his partisan conspiracy theories into US intel product, but of course they didn't. Recent Comments
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