New Hampshire's been blue all year, Ace - you obviously haven't been watching. Minnesota won't go red unless enough other states go first that it won't matter. Pennsylvania is unlikely to be red without Ohio going red first, but either one ends it. Wisconsin only just went toss-up, and has been leaning Bush through thick and thin until now. With Wisconsin, you'd only need Iowa OR New Mexico to win, even without Ohio.

All of this is actually a shift toward Kerry within the last few days. That would sound bad if it weren't for the fact that things were going toward Bush all through the debates. Moral of that story is the polls in the states (and thus the electoral count) apparently lag behind the trend we see in the national polls. So the recent Bush surge should be seen in the electoral count next week - just in time to poop all over the Dems when they need to see good news most.

And, again, all this presumes the polls are accurate, which they aren't. Every single state I mentioned above will end up red on election night.

To. The. Bank.

If you likethe color Red, you'll love the AOL Straw poll for October:

http://www.electionguide04.com/straw_poll_october.adp

Not giving up on New Hampshire, yet. Bush and Cheney have been making routine trips to Manchester, et al during the past months.

Aside, when did Hawaii, Rhode Island, and Alaska pull even/ahead of Deleware in electoral votes.

If you post a blog in Deleware...does anyone read it?

Wow, Donna. That's a whole lotta red

I don't know if it is true or not but supposedly a poll released last night said Oregon had gone Red. Any truth to that?

I'm in NE Ohio, and just yesterday, they were reporting on the news that Kerry is losing ground in areas of the state that he used to hold firmly.

They quoted close numbers (52-48 to Kerry), and said that this only included major cities, and ignored all the Bush lovin' country folk.

DU was debunking the OR poll yesterday. Their complaint was that Riley is a republican shill and that he sampled 3% more repubs than dems. One interesting number from the poll that isn't affected by the whole oversampling question is that only 80% of dems polled were voting for Kerry. Have the dems considered that 1 in 5 of all their newly registered voters may not vote for their candidate?

Ohio will not go Kerry. Neither will Oregon.

Trust me on this--or rather, just remember the ballot initiatives on gay marriage in those states.

Ain't. Gonna. Happen.

I don't know if it is true or not but supposedly a poll released last night said Oregon had gone Red. Any truth to that?

Well, I know a Riley poll -- whatever that is -- shows Bush up by 5 since last week or so. I don't know what we can make of that, as other polls disagree.

I have been tracking an Electoral Count projection by using the Tradesports state contract prices since October 4th. I am not doing anything greatly sophisticated and I haven't posted up the last three days yet but Bush is holding at 291 vs. Kerry at 247. New Hampshire swung to Kerry a little over a week ago. Pensylvania has gone from "solid" Kerry to "soft" Kerry. Florida, Ohio, Iowa, and Wisconsin are all "soft" Bush. I use $0-$33.9 as "Solid" Kerry, $34-$50.9 as "Soft" Kerry, $51-$67 as "Soft" Bush and $67.1-$100 as "Solid" Bush. You can view the files in a variety of formats at http://www.horsescare.com/horsepuckey/EVFILES/. My not-very-active blog is Horsepuckey.