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October 18, 2004
Real Clear Politics: Bush Leads Electoral Count, But He's Not Over 270I'm just posting this because I love the way all that red looks. There are a couple of unwelcome surprises there. New Hampshire is now in Kerry's column, and Ohio is slightly leaning towards Kerry (although so slightly that RCP calls it a toss-up). Minnesota, which ought to be getable and could shatter Kerry's hopes by going for Bush, nevertheless remains a blue state. On the other hand, it appears as though Bush could afford to lose Ohio-- but only if he picks up toss-ups Wisconsin and Iowa. I wouldn't bet the farm on that, but it's nice to know there's an out if Bush doesn't pick up the Ohio card. The Iowa Electronic Markets continue showing a belief in Bush's odds. posted by Ace at 03:20 AM
CommentsNew Hampshire's been blue all year, Ace - you obviously haven't been watching. Minnesota won't go red unless enough other states go first that it won't matter. Pennsylvania is unlikely to be red without Ohio going red first, but either one ends it. Wisconsin only just went toss-up, and has been leaning Bush through thick and thin until now. With Wisconsin, you'd only need Iowa OR New Mexico to win, even without Ohio. All of this is actually a shift toward Kerry within the last few days. That would sound bad if it weren't for the fact that things were going toward Bush all through the debates. Moral of that story is the polls in the states (and thus the electoral count) apparently lag behind the trend we see in the national polls. So the recent Bush surge should be seen in the electoral count next week - just in time to poop all over the Dems when they need to see good news most. And, again, all this presumes the polls are accurate, which they aren't. Every single state I mentioned above will end up red on election night. To. The. Bank. Posted by: The Black Republican on October 18, 2004 08:39 AM
If you likethe color Red, you'll love the AOL Straw poll for October: http://www.electionguide04.com/straw_poll_october.adp Posted by: Donna on October 18, 2004 08:43 AM
Not giving up on New Hampshire, yet. Bush and Cheney have been making routine trips to Manchester, et al during the past months. Aside, when did Hawaii, Rhode Island, and Alaska pull even/ahead of Deleware in electoral votes. If you post a blog in Deleware...does anyone read it? Posted by: sonofnixon on October 18, 2004 08:45 AM
Wow, Donna. That's a whole lotta red Posted by: sonofnixon on October 18, 2004 08:47 AM
I don't know if it is true or not but supposedly a poll released last night said Oregon had gone Red. Any truth to that? Posted by: carl on October 18, 2004 10:38 AM
I'm in NE Ohio, and just yesterday, they were reporting on the news that Kerry is losing ground in areas of the state that he used to hold firmly. They quoted close numbers (52-48 to Kerry), and said that this only included major cities, and ignored all the Bush lovin' country folk. Posted by: DelphiGuy on October 18, 2004 11:53 AM
DU was debunking the OR poll yesterday. Their complaint was that Riley is a republican shill and that he sampled 3% more repubs than dems. One interesting number from the poll that isn't affected by the whole oversampling question is that only 80% of dems polled were voting for Kerry. Have the dems considered that 1 in 5 of all their newly registered voters may not vote for their candidate? Posted by: rw on October 18, 2004 12:30 PM
Ohio will not go Kerry. Neither will Oregon. Trust me on this--or rather, just remember the ballot initiatives on gay marriage in those states. Ain't. Gonna. Happen. Posted by: Anthony Perez-Miller on October 18, 2004 01:30 PM
I don't know if it is true or not but supposedly a poll released last night said Oregon had gone Red. Any truth to that? Well, I know a Riley poll -- whatever that is -- shows Bush up by 5 since last week or so. I don't know what we can make of that, as other polls disagree. Posted by: ace on October 18, 2004 01:36 PM
I have been tracking an Electoral Count projection by using the Tradesports state contract prices since October 4th. I am not doing anything greatly sophisticated and I haven't posted up the last three days yet but Bush is holding at 291 vs. Kerry at 247. New Hampshire swung to Kerry a little over a week ago. Pensylvania has gone from "solid" Kerry to "soft" Kerry. Florida, Ohio, Iowa, and Wisconsin are all "soft" Bush. I use $0-$33.9 as "Solid" Kerry, $34-$50.9 as "Soft" Kerry, $51-$67 as "Soft" Bush and $67.1-$100 as "Solid" Bush. You can view the files in a variety of formats at http://www.horsescare.com/horsepuckey/EVFILES/. My not-very-active blog is Horsepuckey. Posted by: DJ on October 18, 2004 03:31 PM
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Mayor Karen is so stung by fan-made AI ads that she's resorting to the shitlibs' go-to demand for an end to criticism -- these ads are "violent" and "hateful" and making me feel unsafe because one video showed AI cartoons throwing tomatoes at me and the tomatoes looked like blood when they squished
This was her actual complaint. The mushed-up tomato looked like blood so it's a death threat and these violent attacks on me must stop. What is dis bitch, CNN?
Few people remember that Norm MacDonald began his career as a ventriloquist
MacDonald's old partner Adam Egot revealed that MacDonald repurposed a bit with one of his ventriloquist dolls -- that he was a "bad guy" who "didn't believe the Holocaust happened" -- for the Norm MacDonald show, in which he claimed Egot didn't believe in the Holocaust. Funniest thing I've read about the Virginia mess. Back when they were hustling the referendum through the assembly both Senators, Warner and Kaine, advised them to go slow and play by the rules. Louise Lucas said she respected them but didn't need advice from the "cuck chair" in the corner. The gerrymandering was overturned and Louise is heading for the big house. Edward G. Robinson voice "where's your cuck now?" I posted his post on twitter and it's gotten 25K views so far. Thanks, Smell the Glove Chris
Forgotten 80s Mystery Click That Sums Up the Democrat Communist Party Today
Something is wrong as I hold you near Somebody else holds your heart, yeah You turn to me with your icy tears And then it's raining, feels like it's raining
"It's f**king f**ked."
-- reportedly a genuine comment offered by a "senior Labour source" Correction: I wrote that Labour is losing 88% (now 87%) of the seats it is "defending." I think that's wrong. The right way to say it is the seats they are contesting -- that is, they don't necessarily already hold these seats, but they have put up a candidate to run for the seat. It's still very bad but not as bad as losing 87% of the seats they already held. Basil the Great
"The end of the two party system in the UK" as first the Fake Conservatives and now Labour chooses political suicide rather than simply STOPPING THE INVASION
Incidentally, the only reason this didn't already happen in the US is because of the Very Bad Orange Man (who is right on 85% of all policy calls and extremely, existentially right on 15% of them)
No political party that is NOT also a doomsday religious cult would EVER choose a cataclysmic loss -- and possible extinction as a party -- to support a toxically unpopular favoritism of NON-CITIZEN ILLEGAL MIGRANTS over actual citizen voters.
Only a cult does this.
Now they've lost 84%.
Annunziata Rees-Mogg Update: They've now lost 88% of the seats they're defending. As I mentioned earlier, I think I heard that London will not bail them out, as many of those Labour seats will probably flip to "Muslim Independent" or Green. Detroit's 5am vote will not save them.
Yup, Labour is losing 80% of its seats...
The British Patriot Wow, up to 1700-2100 seats. It's not incredible that this is happening. It's incredible that the Davos crowd is so absolutely determined to privilege Muslim "migrants" over the actual native population who elects them, no matter how loudly the natives scream that they want to be prioritized, that they will gladly self-extinguish as a party rather than simply representing the interests of their own voters. Astonishing. Remember, when they call other people "cultists" -- they are the ones so imprisoned in their social reinforcement and discipline bubbles that they will choose political death rather than dare upset the Karen Enforcement Officers of their cult. Update: Now they've lost 83% of the seats they were defending. (((Dan Hodges))) Nick Lowles
STARMERGEDDON: In early returns, Reform gains 135 seats, Labour loses 90, the Fake Conservatives lose 36 (and I didn't even know they could fall any further), the Lib Dems lose 4, and the Greens gain 6. Note that the only other party gaining seats is the Greens and they're only gaining a handful of seats.
Update: Reform now up 145, Labour down 98. Labour projected to lose Wales -- where they've ruled for 27 years. Fulton County Georgia just discovered 400 boxes of ballots for Labour Update: REF +156, LAB -107, CON -45 Brutal: In four out of five council seats where Labour is defending, they've lost. 80%. I'm sure it's not this simple, but Reform is straight taking Labour's and the "Conservatives'" seats. They've lost almost exactly what Reform gained. If understand this right (and warning, I probably don't), all of London's council seats are up for election, and Labour might lose hugely there, as their old voters abandon them for Reform, Muslim Indenpendents, and the Greens. REF +190, LAB -134, CON -56.
Updates on the Labour collapse in council elections -- which wags are calling #Starmergeddon -- from Beege Welborne. There are about 5000 seats up for grabs, Labour is expected to lose 1,800, Reform will probably gain 1,580, up from... zero. So this would be more than that.
People claim that while Labour has adopted the Sharia Agenda to appeal to the million Muslims it allowed to migrate to the country, those voters are ditching Labour to vote for the Muslim Independent Party or the Greens. Delicious. This shadenfreude is going straight to my thighs. Oh, and if Starmer loses about as badly as expected, Labour will toss him out of a window Braveheart style and replace him. He will announce he is resigning to spend more time with his Gay Ukrainian Male Prostitutes.
Media bias and senationalism are as old as, well, the media:
![]() That was written by Denny O'Neill and illustrated by, get this, Frank Miller. Editor to the Stars Jim Shooter was in charge at the time. I always thought the gag was original to the comic book, but in fact the "Threat or Menace" headline was a satirical joke about media bias and sensationalism for a long while. The Harvard Lampoon used it in a parody of Life magazine: "Flying Saucers: Threat or Menace?"
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