Intermarkets' Privacy Policy
Support


Donate to Ace of Spades HQ!


Contact
Ace:
aceofspadeshq at gee mail.com
Buck:
buck.throckmorton at protonmail.com
CBD:
cbd at cutjibnewsletter.com
joe mannix:
mannix2024 at proton.me
MisHum:
petmorons at gee mail.com
J.J. Sefton:
sefton at cutjibnewsletter.com


Recent Entries
Absent Friends
Jon Ekdahl 2026
Jay Guevara 2025
Jim Sunk New Dawn 2025
Jewells45 2025
Bandersnatch 2024
GnuBreed 2024
Captain Hate 2023
moon_over_vermont 2023
westminsterdogshow 2023
Ann Wilson(Empire1) 2022
Dave In Texas 2022
Jesse in D.C. 2022
OregonMuse 2022
redc1c4 2021
Tami 2021
Chavez the Hugo 2020
Ibguy 2020
Rickl 2019
Joffen 2014
AoSHQ Writers Group
A site for members of the Horde to post their stories seeking beta readers, editing help, brainstorming, and story ideas. Also to share links to potential publishing outlets, writing help sites, and videos posting tips to get published. Contact OrangeEnt for info:
maildrop62 at proton dot me
Cutting The Cord And Email Security
Moron Meet-Ups





















« Sheesh! The Sex is Least Embarassing Part of Paris Hilton's New Videotapes | Main | What's the Deal With Texas Democrats? »
October 18, 2004

Real Clear Politics: Bush Leads Electoral Count, But He's Not Over 270

I'm just posting this because I love the way all that red looks.

There are a couple of unwelcome surprises there. New Hampshire is now in Kerry's column, and Ohio is slightly leaning towards Kerry (although so slightly that RCP calls it a toss-up). Minnesota, which ought to be getable and could shatter Kerry's hopes by going for Bush, nevertheless remains a blue state.

On the other hand, it appears as though Bush could afford to lose Ohio-- but only if he picks up toss-ups Wisconsin and Iowa. I wouldn't bet the farm on that, but it's nice to know there's an out if Bush doesn't pick up the Ohio card.

The Iowa Electronic Markets continue showing a belief in Bush's odds.


posted by Ace at 03:20 AM
Comments



New Hampshire's been blue all year, Ace - you obviously haven't been watching. Minnesota won't go red unless enough other states go first that it won't matter. Pennsylvania is unlikely to be red without Ohio going red first, but either one ends it. Wisconsin only just went toss-up, and has been leaning Bush through thick and thin until now. With Wisconsin, you'd only need Iowa OR New Mexico to win, even without Ohio.

All of this is actually a shift toward Kerry within the last few days. That would sound bad if it weren't for the fact that things were going toward Bush all through the debates. Moral of that story is the polls in the states (and thus the electoral count) apparently lag behind the trend we see in the national polls. So the recent Bush surge should be seen in the electoral count next week - just in time to poop all over the Dems when they need to see good news most.

And, again, all this presumes the polls are accurate, which they aren't. Every single state I mentioned above will end up red on election night.

To. The. Bank.

Posted by: The Black Republican on October 18, 2004 08:39 AM

If you likethe color Red, you'll love the AOL Straw poll for October:

http://www.electionguide04.com/straw_poll_october.adp

Posted by: Donna on October 18, 2004 08:43 AM

Not giving up on New Hampshire, yet. Bush and Cheney have been making routine trips to Manchester, et al during the past months.

Aside, when did Hawaii, Rhode Island, and Alaska pull even/ahead of Deleware in electoral votes.

If you post a blog in Deleware...does anyone read it?

Posted by: sonofnixon on October 18, 2004 08:45 AM

Wow, Donna. That's a whole lotta red

Posted by: sonofnixon on October 18, 2004 08:47 AM

I don't know if it is true or not but supposedly a poll released last night said Oregon had gone Red. Any truth to that?

Posted by: carl on October 18, 2004 10:38 AM

I'm in NE Ohio, and just yesterday, they were reporting on the news that Kerry is losing ground in areas of the state that he used to hold firmly.

They quoted close numbers (52-48 to Kerry), and said that this only included major cities, and ignored all the Bush lovin' country folk.

Posted by: DelphiGuy on October 18, 2004 11:53 AM

DU was debunking the OR poll yesterday. Their complaint was that Riley is a republican shill and that he sampled 3% more repubs than dems. One interesting number from the poll that isn't affected by the whole oversampling question is that only 80% of dems polled were voting for Kerry. Have the dems considered that 1 in 5 of all their newly registered voters may not vote for their candidate?

Posted by: rw on October 18, 2004 12:30 PM

Ohio will not go Kerry. Neither will Oregon.

Trust me on this--or rather, just remember the ballot initiatives on gay marriage in those states.

Ain't. Gonna. Happen.

Posted by: Anthony Perez-Miller on October 18, 2004 01:30 PM

I don't know if it is true or not but supposedly a poll released last night said Oregon had gone Red. Any truth to that?

Well, I know a Riley poll -- whatever that is -- shows Bush up by 5 since last week or so. I don't know what we can make of that, as other polls disagree.

Posted by: ace on October 18, 2004 01:36 PM

I have been tracking an Electoral Count projection by using the Tradesports state contract prices since October 4th. I am not doing anything greatly sophisticated and I haven't posted up the last three days yet but Bush is holding at 291 vs. Kerry at 247. New Hampshire swung to Kerry a little over a week ago. Pensylvania has gone from "solid" Kerry to "soft" Kerry. Florida, Ohio, Iowa, and Wisconsin are all "soft" Bush. I use $0-$33.9 as "Solid" Kerry, $34-$50.9 as "Soft" Kerry, $51-$67 as "Soft" Bush and $67.1-$100 as "Solid" Bush. You can view the files in a variety of formats at http://www.horsescare.com/horsepuckey/EVFILES/. My not-very-active blog is Horsepuckey.

Posted by: DJ on October 18, 2004 03:31 PM
Post a comment
Name:


Email Address:


URL:


Comments:


Remember info?








Now Available!
The Deplorable Gourmet
A Horde-sourced Cookbook
[All profits go to charity]
Top Headlines
You know we "joke" about the GOPe just "conserving" leftist things?
David French just posted:

Populists ask what conservativism has ever conserved?
Well its about to conserve birthright citizenship!
Posted by: 18-1

I couldn't hate this queen of the cuck-chair more if it paid seven figures and came with a corner office.
CJN podcast 1400 copy.jpg
Podcast: CBD and Sefton talk birthright citizenship, the 14th Amendment and SCOTUS, no boots in Iran, Artemis II and refocusing NASA, the NBA's hatred of everything non-woke, and more!
In more marketing for Project Hail Mary, scientists say they've found the biosigns indicating life growing on an alien planet. It's not proof, just signatures of chemicals that are produced by biological metabolism, and it could be nothing, but scientists think it's a strong sign that this planet is inhabited by something.
In a paper published in the Astrophysical Journal Letters, a team of scientists announced the detection of dimethyl sulfide (along with a similar detection of dimethyl disulfide) in the atmosphere of an exoplanet called K2-18b. This is actually the second detection of dimethyl sulfide made on this planet, following a tentative detection in 2023.
Tons of chemicals are detected in the atmospheres of celestial objects every day. But dimethyl sulfide is different, because on Earth, it's only produced by living organisms.
"It is a shock to the system," Nikku Madhusudhan, first author on the paper, told the New York Times. "We spent an enormous amount of time just trying to get rid of the signal."

He means they tried to prove the signal was caused by things other than dimethyl sulfide but they could not.
Artemis moon shot a go, scheduled for 6:24 Eastern time tonight
Great marketing arranged by Amazon to promote Project Hail Mary. Okay not really but it does work out that way.
What? Skeleton of the most famous Musketeer, D'Artagnan, possibly discovered in Dutch church closet.
Dumas picked four names of real musketeers out of a history book, D'Artagnan, Athos, Aramis, and Porthos. So there was an actual D'Artagnan, though he made most of the story up. (Or, you know, all of it.)*
Charles de Batz de Castelmore, known as d'Artagnan, the famous musketeer of Kings Louis XIII and Louis XIV, spent his life in the service of the French crown.
The Gascon nobleman inspired Alexandre Dumas's hero in "The Three Musketeers" in the 19th century, a character now known worldwide thanks to the novel and numerous film adaptations.
D'Artagnan was killed during the siege of Maastricht in 1673, and there is a statue honoring the musketeer in the city. His final resting place has remained a mystery ever since.

A lot of Dumas's stories are based on bits of real history. The plot of the >Three Musketeers, about trying to recover lost diamonds from the queen's necklace, was cribbed from the then-almost-contemporaneous Affair of the Queen's Necklace. And the Man in the Iron Mask is based on real accounts of a prisoner forced to wear a mask (though I think it was a velvet mask).
* Oh, I should mention, Dumas says all this, about finding the names in an old book, in the prologue to his novel. But authors lie a lot. They frequently present fictions as based on historic fact. The twist is, he was actually telling the truth here. At least about these four musketeers having actually existed and served under Louis XIV.
Fun fact: You know the beginning of A Fistful of Dollars where the local gunslingers make fun of Clint Eastwood's donkey and Eastwood demands they apologize to the donkey? That's lifted from The Three Musketeers. Rochefort mocks D'Artagnan's old, brokedown farm horse and D'Artagnan is incensed.
A commenter asked which should be read first, The Hobbit of LOTR?
Easy, no question -- read The Hobbit first. It's actually the start of the story and comes first chronologically. It sets up some major characters and major pieces in play in LOTR.
Also, the Hobbit is Beginner-Friendly, which LOTR isn't. The Hobbit really is a delightful book, and a fast read. It's chatty, it's casual, it's exciting, and it's funny. In that dry cheeky British humor way. I love that the narrator is constantly making little asides and commentary, like he's just sitting next to you telling you this story as it occurs to him.
LOTR is a very long story. Fifteen hundred pages or so. The Hobbit is relatively short and very punchy and easy to read. If you don't like The Hobbit, you can skip out on LOTR. If you do like it, you'll be primed to read LOTR.
Oh, I should say: The Hobbit is written as if it's for children, but one of those smart children's stories that are also for adults. Don't worry, there's also real fighting and violence and horror in it, too.
LOTR is written for adults. (It's said that Tolkien wrote both for his children, but LOTR was written 17 years later, when his children were adults.) Some might not like The Hobbit due to its sometimes frivolous tone. Me, I love it. I find it constantly amusing. Both are really good but there is a starkly different tone to both. LOTR is epic, grand, and serious, about a world war, The Hobbit is light and breezy, and about a heist. Though a heist that culminates in a war for the spoils.
The Hobbit Challenge: Read two more chapters. I didn't have much time. Bilbo got the ring.
I noticed a continuity problem. Maybe. Now, as of the time of The Hobbit, it was unknown that this magic ring was in fact a Ring of Power, and it was doubly unknown that it was the Ring of Power, the Master Ring that controlled the others.
But the narrator -- who we will learn in LOTR was none of than Bilbo himself, who wrote the book as "There and Back Again" -- says this about Gollum's ring:
"But who knows how Gollum had come by that present [the Ring], ages ago in the old days when such rings were still at large in the world? Perhaps even the Master who ruled them could not have said."
In another passage, the ring is identified as a "ring of power."
I don't know, I always thought there was a distinction between mere magic rings and the Rings of Power created by Sauron. But this suggests that Bilbo knew this was a ring of power created by Sauron.
Now I don't remember when Bilbo wrote the Hobbit. In the movie, he shows Frodo the book in Rivendell, and I guess he wrote it after he left the Shire. I guess he might have added in the part about the ring being a ring of power created by "the Master" after Gandalf appraised him of his research into the ring.
I never noticed this before. I know Tolkien re-wrote this chapter while he was writing LOTR to make the ring important from the start. And also to make Gollum more sinister and evil, and also to remove the part where Gollum actually offers Bilbo the ring as a "present" -- Bilbo had already found it on his own, but Gollum was wiling to give it away, which obviously is not something the rewritten Gollum would ever do.
But I had no memory of the ring being suggested to be The Ring so early in the tale.
Finish the job, Mr. President!
Melanie Phillips lays out the case for the total destruction of the Iranian government and armed forces. [CBD]
CJN podcast 1400 copy.jpg
Podcast: Sefton and CBD talk about how would a peace treaty with Iran work, Democrats defending murderers and rapists, The GOP vs. Dem bench for 2028, composting bodies? And more!
Oh, I forgot to mention this quote from Pete Hegseth, reported by Roger Kimball: "We are sharing the ocean with the Iranian Navy. We're giving them the bottom half."
Forgotten 80s Mystery Click: Red Leather Suit and Sweatband Edition
And I was here to please
I'm even on knees
Makin' love to whoever I please
I gotta do it my way
Or no way at all
Tomorrow is March 25th, "Tolkien Reading Day," because March 25th is the day when the Ring is destroyed in the book. I think I'm going to start the Hobbit tomorrow and read all four books this time.
The only bad part of the trilogy are the Frodo/Sam chapters in The Two Towers. They're repetitive, slow, and mostly about the weather and terrain. But most everything else is good. Weirdly, the Frodo-Sam chapters in Return of the King are exciting and action-packed and among the best in the trilogy. (Though the chapters with everyone else in Return of the King get pretty slow again. Mostly people talking about marching towards war, and then marching towards war.)
Recent Comments
I gotta ask : "What in the wide, wide world of margins is a-going ..."

Big Pharma: "Ooof, we are WIDE. Posted by: Grumpy and Recalcit ..."

Krebs v Carnot: Epic Battle of the Cycling Stars (TM): " Blown margins? This close to Pride Month? ..."

RedMindBlueState[/i][/b][/s][/u]: "#8 Damn it, Sponge, you beat me to it! ..."

Martini Farmer: "Post upon posts Yonder Horde ..."

San Franpsycho: "Good morning dear horde and happy birthday JJ ..."

Sponge - F*ck Cancer: "[i]I had a few personal issues to condeal with so ..."

Don Black: "none of this looks right ..."

NaCly Dog: "Nooded. ..."

Skip: "The Bolsheviks original plan was to crash the Russ ..."

Sponge - F*ck Cancer: "I trust everyone had a glorious Easter with family ..."

"Perfessor" Squirrel: "Margin status: BLOWN! ..."

Bloggers in Arms
Some Humorous Asides
Archives