My people don't know how to vote.

How does the Ace Of Space get Yiddishkeit? Wow! I'll bet your grandparents changed the family name at Ellis Island from Ace Of Schpadelman.

re: Jewish Republicans, it must be a mass insanity. Sure George talks to Jesus, but Jesus tells him to support Israel and fight terrorists.

The thing I can't understand is that they're supporting the same kind of people that turned their backs on Hitlers death camps, and who activly support the Palastinian terrorists. Not to mention that the Liberals they support wouldn't have ANY problem persecuting them here- if it could get them back in power.

Seems like just personal self intrest would scare me away fron the Liberal brownshirted Union thugs of today.

The existential threat to Israel is the Iranian nuclear weapons program. The only thing that has any chance of stopping it is diplomacy backed up by the credible use of force. Bush can provide that credible threat. His past gumption proves it. The dictatorship in Iran will not be the least bit scared of John Kerry. He voted against first gulf war, waffled on second, proposes to supply Iran with uranium as long as they promise to be nice - the same deal that the Europeans offered Iran last year and produced no cessation of the Iranian drive to acquire nuclear weapons.

If Kerry had been President, Saddam would not only still be in power - he would still be in power in Kuwait. He would be there with vast wealth and the weapons he was able to acquire with that wealth. Remember, this is the brute who paid $25,000 to the families of suicide bombers.

Some Jewish voters might not care about Israels, others might have other priorities. But I am concerned that many Jewish voters are voting out of habit, rather than a open-minded and informed examination of the relative track records of Bush and Kerry.

I pulled for Gore the past election, so I'm not true believer in Republicans or any other party.
This election I am transfixed by the prospect of a second and final Holocaust at the hands of the Iran dictators or the terrorists they supply. I do not think this is paranoid by any means. I live in a city in Canada to which hundreds of Argentinian Jews have come. Their Jewish community centre was bombed and scores of them murdered by Iranian-backed terrorists. I read the insane and vicious pronouncements of the Iranian leadership. And the only prospect I see of stemming the risk is the re-election of president Bush.

I also believe that in the long run, the Bush vision of a middle east in which some governments are reasonably tolerant and demoratic offers the best hope of long run peace in the area.

President Bush has, rightly not been an uncritical partisan of an Israeli faction, including the Sharon government. He has - rightly again - acknowledged the desirability of achieving a two state solution. But in the toughest of times - including Israel's assertion of its right to defend itself against terrorist mass murder - Bush has demonstrated again and again his fundamental commitment to Israel's survival. With a friend like Bush, Sharon can take some chances for peace, like the Gaza pull-out. Without Bush, though, I am genuinely and profoundly concerned that the unspeakable may happen to what is left of the Jewish people.

Like certain other demographics their minds are still stuck on the plantation and they vote with their reflexes rather than their forebrain.

Part of it is environmental. The highest density of we Jews in the US are in the bluest states that provide a DNC echo chamber.

Docpro,

Me too, then.

That's it.

There simply is no better way to distill the issues surrounding the Jewish vote and Bush.

Ace,

Jews for Kerry?

No, it's not Oy Vay.

It's Ah Zuchen Vay!

It seems that the American members of the World Zionist Conspiracy simply haven't gotten the latest memos.

World Zionist Conspiracies aren't what they used to be.

I put no credence in fukakta polls.

bush has the "Jewish " vote, unfortunately only 20-25%% of American Jews vote "Jewish". The majority of American jews are assimilated liberals that put Jewish interests on the bottom of the list. The majority of Jewish Jews tend to be Republican or swing voters.
Jews that marched in the Israeli day parade will mostly vote for Bush.
Jews that march in abortion rallies will vote Kerry. unfortunately there are more single issue abortion Jews than there are Jewish Jews.
The good news is that liberal Jews are disappearing and assimilating and having few kids, while Jewish Jews are the only growth segment in the US.

The great Republican dream is to get - not the Jewish vote so much - but to deny Democrats the incredible treasure chest of Jewish wealth, that amounts to 1/2 the DNC's coffers.

Republicans think the way to get that money shifted is to all but publicly lick Ariel Sharons boots and follow a Neocon foreign policy. Totally wrong approach...

They miss the traditional Jewish attachment to big strong central governments that have law triumph over the people's will or the people's legislatures. And for governments that embrace the secular, and wish to eradicate Christian aspects they feel threaten Jews. Jews feel safer under a Stalin than in a Christian democracy.

That is why Jews will stay Democratic no matter how hard Republicans kow-tow to the Likud or fight Israel's proxy wars. Even the Republican "Christian Zionists" are looked upon as rubes and useful tools only.

Cedarford,

For the love of God, do I really fucking need statements like "Jews feel safer under a Stalin than in a Christian democracy" on my site?

Get a fucking grip. Every Jewish reader just winced at that and had to reconsider aligning themselves with the conservative movement.

And I hate to be a fucking PC Cop, but I don't need to read the "good news" about liberal Jews disappearing.

Yeah, I guess I know what you mean, but just watch not only what you mean but how you say it. There are understandable sensitivities in these areas.

Cedarford, as a Jew who had plenty of family members killed under Stalin, I just need to tell you: you're a moron.

It's not a big central government that Jews are drawn to but the socially liberal policies of the Democrats and the idea of welfare/charity. Like I said, my people don't know how to vote.

Karol - The Bolshieviks had plenty of Jewish support. In the early Soviet years the pattern was Jewish migration into "the revolutionary state", not out of it. Stalin made anti-Semitism a capital offense under Soviet law. Stalin supported the creation of Israel and was convinced that the socialists and communists running Israel would bring it into the Soviet sphere. It wasn't until later in the 30's that Stalin turned on the Trotskyites and others that he saw as a threat. The Doctor's Plot was clearly the first purge Stalin directed at certain insider Jews, but it wasn't until his last years. It was only in the late 60's, long after Stalin's death, that Soviet Jews really soured on communism and sought to leave in significant numbers.

Scholars, including many Jewish ones, have explained that the long-time attraction Jews had for Communism was in fact an attraction for a strong central state where the law and powerful wise men running things prevailed over the people's will. They said this was a reaction to Czarist pogroms and the past where weak kings and rulers let mobs persecute Jewery.

In the US, FDR anchored Jewish loyalty to the Democratic Party by creating a vastly expanded strong central government run by "careerist experts" and beginning the usage of the courts to advance the social agenda - rather than the mob's votes or it's legislature.

ACE - There is little in the conservative agenda to attract most Jewish voters. The Democrats also give Israel what it wants. The tax cuts for the wealthy had little appeal to Jewish voters compared to the threat they see coming from the Republicans to Big government, activist judiciaries. And concern the religious right may be controlling things. You get a few conservative Jews, and the neocons that still want a liberal agenda and big government, switching and joining the Republicans, but not the mainstream. Same with blacks that also favor rule by judges, heavy government involvement, and "progressive" change.

On the numbers - the Republicans should abandon courting Jews and blacks for a while, and focus on Hispanics - who are closer to traditional Republican values. Republicans have dreamed since Nixon's time that their love of Israel would cause Jews to shift the large campaign funds away from the Democrats - but it hasn't even trended that way since 1932, except for Nixon's 2nd term when he got ~20% of the Jewish vote and 25% of the money Jews gave out in 1972.

I wouldn't put too much faith in those poll results for Jews. Plenty of them are pulling the big R lever this year. Anecdotally, all the Jews I know -- and I mean all of them, and I know plenty -- are voting Bush. I doubt a one says as much to their aged parents, who've been voting Democrat since Roosevelt, but that's what they're doing. I suspect Jews, like many others, say what they think they are supposed to say when a pollster comes a'knocking, but behind the voting curtain vote their own interests.

Cedarford: If Stalin had not died when he did, in the middle of the "Doctors Plot" in early 1953, there wouldn't have been a live Jew at liberty between Prague and Vladivostok by year's end. And he was a lifelong hater of Jews, but unlike Hitler he was smart enough to include them in the Party apparatus, even putting Jews like Kaganovich into high positions to deflect such criticism. Memories of the czarist pogroms, as you said, and the essential gullibility of progressive intellectuals in those days, and the Soviet defeat of Hitler, gave Stalin further legitimacy in their eyes.

Ace: From your mouth to God's ear! Nice job!

Who was it who said Jews live like Episcopalians and vote like Puerto Ricans?

The Doctor's [sic] Plot was clearly the first purge Stalin directed at certain insider Jews, but it wasn't until his last years. It was only in the late 60's, long after Stalin's death, that Soviet Jews really soured on communism and sought to leave in significant numbers.

You mean, they liked it just fine when government-sponsored mobs beat them up in the streets, and their children in the schools? And they only soured on that 10+ years later?

Just shut the fuck up. Or go back to babbling about "tax cuts for the wealthy."

Last comment mine.

I have a friend who got out of Russia in 1976, as soon as he could. He is a good atheist, but a strong supporter of Israel. Yet, he is a Democrat. The only reason that I can think of is that it is the closest thing to the Communist party (just kidding). Actually, there is some truth to it, as he does have some socialist tendencies, despite having been part of the Capitalist underground economy in Russia and an opponent of the government.

My friend is an entrepreneur and has his second startup company up and going. He would be helped by the Bush tax cuts. So why go against his obvious self-interest and vote for Kerry?

The bolsheviks did have many members who were jews, however their main opponents the mensheviks were virtually all Jews, and their other opponents the Narodniks also had many Jews as a matter of fact it was a Jewish Narodnik named Fannie Kaplan who shot and almost killed Lenin. Additionally ,Sidney Riley who attempted a couter-coup was also Jewish. The one thing they all had in common however, was that they were Jews by birth only and had little to do with the traditional Jewish community in the pale of settlement. Most traditional Jews either ended up on the Polish side of the borderafter ww1 or were trapped inside the Soviet Union after ww1. Traditional Jews did not support the bolsheviks and were highly victimized during the early years of the USSR (particlarly by the yezvetskia).
The reason that soviet Jewish immigration became a big issue in the 60's was because of grass roots predominately Orthodox Jewish American activists that were able to bypass the more assimmilationist Jewish establishment that did not want to make waves in the US.
It is the Orthodox, traditional Jews(like myself) that form the core of Republican voting/leaning Jewish voters, not unlike traditional Catholic and Protestant voters. Most Jewish liberals are only nominally(if that much) Jewish and ideologically are no different from goyishe liberals like the Protestant Clintons of the Catholic Cuomo's, Kerry's, Pelosi's or Kennedy's. I don't think FDR anchored "Jewish" loyalty to the Democratic Party by creating a vastly expanded strong central government run by "careerist experts" and beginning the usage of the courts to advance the social agenda - rather than the mob's votes or it's legislature. If that were the case , then the Jewish Jews would be the Democratic fanatics;instaed it is non-Jewish Jews that are . If those nominal Jews were so supportive of FDR because of their "jewish" identity and not their secular liberal identity they would have used their influence on FDR to have acted against the holocaust. But alas they did not.

Avi, as the Catholic counterpart to your Jewish Republican-conservatism, your comment struck home as far closer to the truth than anyone speaking here. There is a decided difference between liberal CINO and JINO voters and those of us who actually practice our respective religions. This basic fact of life is totally lost on some people who have no clue what it means to be guided by faith rather than strictly by some humanist ideology.

Cedarford, up to now I thought it strange why a liberal would hang around here unless they enjoyed pissing on other people when they tried to be optimistic. It never occurred to me you were actually a paleo. I've got a special message right here for you and what I think of trash like you. Why don't you spend time in my comments where we can educate you on some basic decency, rather than crapping all over Ace's jokes here?

Black Republican - I can't help it if you are too stupid to understand the underlying reasons why one ethnic group maintains deep loyalty to one Party - or even following a theory as to why the Republicans have been unable to shift their vote despite decades of trying fruitlessly by focusing on showing total Republican support for Zionist objectives in Israel. And, Black Republican Dolt - Don't like traditional conservatives? Oh, boo-hoo. In your case, my analysis has to not be considered trash, but alas, pearls before swine...

Avi, on the other hand, understands the basic argument, the Jewish Progressive cause tradition - and how Jews were in the thick of Revolutionary activity in the Soviet Union and how that view - and participation in the Revolutions before that (1848), and outside the Soviet Union (Bela Kun, Rosa Luxembourg) shapes Jewish political discourse. Yes, a Jew from a rival revolutionary faction shot Lenin, but he was nursed back to health by his Jewish wife. Avi makes an important distinction between religious Jews and non-religious Jews in framing the Jewish Love Affair with Communism, which has validity. In America, non-Jewish Jews were at the forefront of revolutionary change - the Reds, the Anarchists, the Socialists, starting the radical unions, the NAACP, the Communist Party, and being involved in the start of the ACLU..then FDR came along and offered them a place at the table, and mainstreamed them into the Democratic Party. But in America, the distinction between religious and non-religious Jews is not an important determinant of Party Vote. Jewish socialists like Soros, or Jewish CEOs or Jewish Hasidm can all be reliably counted on to do two things - vote Democratic and give generously to the Democratic Party - because they just don't connect with what the Republicans embody culturally. The Republicans are not progressive enough, distrust the judiciary, and have too much religious Right influence to be palatable to most Jews. Also, most Jews do not share Neocon values...

That is why I said to ACE that blind devotion to Israel by Republicans would not shift the Jewish vote or cash donations. It's as irrelevant to Jewish voters as a Republican program to create black entrepreneur multimillionaires would be in shifting the black vote - it fails to focus on the central wishes and needs of the voting blocks most loyal to the Democrats.

Most blacks will be with the Democrats for a long time to come. Same with most Jews. Hispanics are a closer fit with the Republicans because their central values are closer to the Republicans.

I'm intrigued (and encouraged) by Zumkopf's observation. As I recall, during Reagan-Carter, many people who intended to vote Reagan said otherwise to pollsters, for fear of looking politically atavistic.

Traditional Jewish support for the Democrats, I believe, is largley based on the idea that the Party stood up for the vulnerable. As the Torah said, remember that you yourself were strangers in Egypt. Nowadays, unfortunately, there is a branch of the Democratic party that is glib and self-abasing about how they classify who is powerful and who is oppressed, who is righteous and who is cruel. The United States is excessively cast as arrogant, monomanically driven by economic self interest, indifferent ot the the values of others. The hard left - let's call it the Chomsky left - gives inadequate credit to the genuinely idealistic component in US foreign policy, such as the humanitarian interventions in Kosovo or Somali, or the willingness of the US to stand up for little Israel when other countries - like Chirac's France - see that the balance of population and aggregate wealth is overwhelmingly on the side of Israel's enemies in the region. Bob Dylan's song "Neighbourhood Bully" is an achingly accurate portrayal of the bind Israel is in; its success in surviving against the odds enables its mortal enemies to portray as the oppressor. (That is not to say that the Palestinians should not have their own state; but what stands in the way of that is not Israeli intransigence but the rejectionism of Arafat.)

It is creditable to our people that so many Jews still have a social conscience, still remember being the outsiders. But as Hillel says, you must be for yourself as well as for others. Have our people in North America, though, been numbed by tradition and habit into closing their eyes into how dire the threat is of another genocide, and who in the world, who in the United States, are friends that are genuine and reliable and effective?

As far as I can see, George W Bush is the most reliable friend Israel has in facing the Iranian/terrorist nuclear peril. The threat is mortal, and a cold hard look at the facts suggests the Kerry is very unlikely to be to deal with it effectively. His recapitulation of the failed approach of the Europeans in respect of Iran demosntrates that, as does his long record of voting against weapons program, against the first Gulf War, dissing the US tried and true friends (UK, Australia, etc) and deference to the coalition of the bribed and cynical in European capitals.

Hope you're right Zumpkopf. Anyone else in the US able to confirm his perspective from their own observations?

Cedarford-

Why did you call The Black Republican stupid? Is that latent (or perhaps patent) racism? If so, please STFU and mind both your P's and your Q's. If not, then just watch the insults.

You wrote:
That is why I said to ACE that blind devotion to Israel by Republicans would not shift the Jewish vote or cash donations.

Are you arguing some sort of wag the dog "the Jews are behind it all" garbage or what? Do you think there are no good reasons to support Israel other than the Jewish vote? I'm not religious and still find reasons to support Hindu India and Jewish Israel. They're democracies and reliable (unlike thugocracies) friends that tend not to exact cruelty on their populations. That's good enough for me, given the options.

Cedarford,

The Protocols of the Elders of Zion is bullshit.

Most of the crap you have said about jews could be
said about any group of people. Take away demographics, and democrats would never win an
election again.

Did you know that Che Guevara is a hero to terrorists
even today?

Oh, I beg your pardon, Cedarford. He's probably your
hero too.

cedarford,
you still don't get it . while the assimmilated,liberal Jews in name only largely vote democratic Hasidm particularly and other orthodox vote republican. Bush overwhelmingly received the vote of the hasidim in 2000 and the Jewish Press ( an orthodox Brooklyn paper ) endorsed him.

Birkel - The Democrats also tilt to Israel so a Republican argument that they love Sharon more doesn't work. The REpublicans will never win by being more "pro-Settlements" or other matters.

And as far as Black Republican goes, he initially started the ad hominems with "liberal" "trash like you" and so on, so if you are policing the insults, kindly ask him to STFU -.

My posts were meant to show why Jews will not be likely to vote or shift contributions to the Republicans for a long time - the Progressive Tradition, the European Revolutionary/Communist tradition, being brought into the political process by FDR, preference for progressive, activist Courts setting the social agenda - not the majority, fear of the Religious Right. Given both parties support Israel, supporting Israel "more" is not a determinant. And being pro-business and offering tax cuts just doesn't sway voter blocks more concerned with other issues.

The Republicans also have problems with swaying blacks in any appreciable numbers because of the dissonance of Republican positions with what blacks want and who they trust in office.

And I believe Republican's time and energy would be far better spent on bringing Women onboard. And Hispanics, Asians, and other immigrants into the Party will bear more fruit than continuing failed efforts elsewhere.

Avi - Perhaps in your part of the country, very religious Jews may vote Republican, but from my experience they, including the Hasidm, are typically long-time members of the Democratic Political Machines in the cities, and stayed Democratic when going out to the suburbs. Hasidm are unusually effective in getting what they want because they tend to vote as their leaders direct and in full turnout block votes. And leaders negotiate terms in Democratic primaries with the candidate they go with, and helped in the general elections with Gore and Hillary, in particular.

There are vocal Republican religious Jews, but the same can be said for vocal religious Republican blacks.....just that there aren't that many. I think the black vote went 92-8 against Bush. Puerto Ricans 88-10-2, Jews 82-16-2 for Gore, Bush, Nader, respectively.

cedarford,
again you don't know what you are talking about.Being an orthodox Jew I can say your "experience" of the hasidic vote is totally wrong. There was one small Hasidic community that voted for Hiliary -the Skverer sect-because of a Clinton pardon, but Bush/Lazio received the bulk of the Hasidic vote. Besides most of the Hasidim live in my part of ther country, and since I have studied in a Hasidic Yeshiva and have lived in Hasidic communities I think I know their communities a little better than you.
Yes it is true that Gore received more Jewish votes ,but as I have said in prior e-mails Gore's Jews mostly do not care about or vote about Jewish issues. Most of his Jew in name only voters are more concerned with saving Roe v. Wade than Israel- these are not committed Jews but are committed liberals who happened to have had a Jewish mother.They are no different from secular gentile liberals.
Ralph Reed sumed it up best when he described American Jews as being like a series of concentric circles i.e. a target. Theinner circle is the bullseye. If you placed the most committed Jews in the center and the least committed onthe outside perifery, Republican/Bush voters are the bullseye and the kapo's , the noam chomsky's and adam shapiro's are barely on the taget and the farther you get from the center the more Democrat the voters are. Some gentiles actually know what they are takling about when it comes to the Jewish community.
Oh , and if these liberals where truly committed Jews that had policies that benefitted Jews as Jews (not liberals that happen to have had a Jewish mother) they would have been in the forefront in getting Jews out of Europe during the Holocaust and the soviet union afterward and would be in the forefront of the school choice movement.
Anti-semites like cedarford often talk about the Jewish dominated media , but take for example the liberal nytimes. The formerly Jewish sulzberger family owns the paper but in 1938 opposed fdr's nomination of frankfurter to the supreme court because they did not want a Jewish justice. The publisher married a WASP and the current publisher was raised as aprotesttant liberal and the paper covered up the Holocaust! The most influential paper in the country and they covered it up. Do you really think these JINO'S are really carrying out a secret Jewish agenda?

You comments are skewed and misplaced. Just like any poll out there, you have to question the credibility of the poll sponsor. The American Jewish Committee (AJC) does not represent the American Jewish Public. It is questionable if they can even speak with authority for their own members.
They do not make policy for Jews in this country - or any other - in any civil, commercial, religious, or private sector. These are a bunch of people who are self appointed to their own little empires - and have a public voice that is hollow. They do have - like all other such - groups connections to politicians and to business interests, but they do not represent individual voices or choices.
The Chasidic community will vote as their Rebbes tell them to. The pro-Israel voters, and most of the Orthodox community are more likely to go with Bush.
We just finished a three day holiday weekend. I had plenty of time to take my own poll in my synagogue (shul). We have close to 400 member families. This may be anecdotal - but only one guy in our shul was buying the Liberal line and planning to vote for Kerry. The shul is Orthodox, and yes many of our members even donate and belong to AJC. But we also know what is good for us.
And by the way - 100% of those 'polled' are furious about CBS and Rather trying to manipulate the election and control our minds.
Before you lecture us on our vote - which has not even taken place yet - try to do the right thing - unlike CBS - and check your sources. You will not find a credible poll taken of the Jew in the street, or one that covers the broad spectrum of American Jewery.
Accepting the AJC as representative of the Jewish vote in this country and lambasting individual Jews based on their poll is ludicrous. It is akin to accepting an organization such as MoveOn.org as representative of the voice of the American public.

ari,

I accept the poll, but I'm not "lambasting" anyone. I expect Jews to vote predominently Democratic this cycle as they do in every cycle. That's really not "lambasting," it's just stating a probability.

Un-named person (12:42PM ) - I find it exceptionally amusing that gentiles who disagree with you are all "Anti-Semites" - (yawn! ) the usual charge deployed to "cow" others to not challenging any position any Jew takes - "we have suffered so, so shutup!".............

While at the same time you strip the Jewishness from any Jew who disagrees with your particular position within the Orthodox faction on any issue - as not being "real Jews" - but JINOs - Jews in name only. How anti-Semitic is the act of casting 85% of the Jews outside their Jewishness - simply by not agreeing to your standards?

Particularly in Israel -

Where "JINO's" fight and die for their country whereas most Orthodox Right Wingers draft dodge by religious study and then many spend the rest of their lives trying to control the "JINOs" they hold in contempt.

ARI - I don't know what the AJC says. I know the Democrats claimed they got 82% of the Jewish vote in 2000, are on track to get the same in 2004, and are on track to get most of the Jewish campaign money instead of the Republicans. (Jewish dollars were 50% of all DNC money donations in 2000)

Cedarford,
I accept your money figures - but remember - when it comes to politics - we are dealing with Spin City. The AJC guys have access to some big money and historically they always give it to the party of the Sharptons and the Jesse Jackson's. Jews are very bright in medicine and physics - but alas - Politics seems to be a much more complex topic - and we suck at it!
But - and please correct me if I am wrong - you cannot correlate between the monies that you mention - and the individual grass roots Jewish voter.
The big bucks belong to a few so-called 'JEWSIH LEADERS' (e.g. Bronffman) who are out of touch with the rest of us. They are not LEADERS in any functional activity of day living to the individual Jew on the street. They cannot tell us how to vote - though they try to. I am not a fan of Bush's policy on the Middle East - I do not trust that his plan for us is radically better or different than Clinton's. But - there is a very strong perception today - here in the USA - and also in ISrael - that George W. Bush is the best US President ever vis-a-vis Israel. His Administration has been quietly more supportive of Israel's actions to defend itself. When Clinton was in power - it was very tough to do mop up operations in the 'territories' like we do today.
Four years ago - I would agree with you that the Democrats still had the Jewish vote to count on. But - I feel that times have changed drastically - and that the pendulum has moved in the other direction to a greater extent than is being reported.

Just to clarify, the above Ari isn't Me. Although, for the most part, I do happen to agree.

ARI,
I will change my name from Ari to Ariel - to eliminate the confusion.

Currently 65% of the officer corps in Israel are orhtodox.
A recent poll in the US stated that only 17% of Jews consider Israel an important electoral issue.
This years NYC Israeli day parade was virtually an Orthodox only event by both marchers and watchers. It did not used to be.
The only people( in statistically significant numbers) from America to visit or study in Israel are Orthodox Jews and members of the Christian Right.

Yohannan,

Perhaps when 17% of Jews say that Israel is not an important issue, it is because they wrongly believe that Israel is as secure with Kerry in office as it is with Bush. In this, I'm afraid - truly afraid - that they are mistaken.

Kerry voted against the first gulf war; imagine if Saddam had remained in Kuwait, emboldened, enriched, empowered, and with an extra decade to proceed with this nuclear and other WMD programs. Sanctions would not have worked - not with so many resources with which to bribe members of the security council and others. Kerry voted against crucial weapons programs. Without sophisticated high tech weapons, many bought from the US, Israel would not have the qualitative advantage its survival depends upon.
Kerry various US allies as coerced, puppets (via Joe Lockhart) or warloads, and apparently has an abiding belief that France and Germany and other such "sophisticated" states will line up behind the US and not grab their profits where they can make it without sacrificing their own soldiers or treasure.

Iran has a potentially genocidal nuclear weapons program on the march. Kerry has no credible means of doing anything about it. He repeats formulas that have not worked in the past - in either North Korea or as offerd to Iran. The Europeans tried the "have some uranium, and promise to play nicely with it" route, and have been treated in return with contempt.

Now Kerry refers to terrorists as having been a nuisance in the past and wants to return to that level.

I suppose when terrorists were mainly concerned with killing Jews, both in Israel and abroad (e.g., the bombing of the Jewish community centre in Argentina, with almost two hundred lives lost) there were, in Kerry's view, a mere nuisance. Not to say that Kerry is an anti-semite - he assuredly is not - just that it obviously did not register as a major concern for him.

The possession of nuclear weapons by the Iran dictatorship, whose anti-semitic ravings are notorious, raises a threat of outread genocide. Kerry may say he is concerned, but with his track record - voting against the first gulf war, against weapons system, and now referring to terrorists in the past as a "nuisance" - he is no position to back up any diplomacy with Iran with the credible threat of the use of force.

Docpro

yohannan,
where are you getting these numbers from? The officers corps in Israel 65% Orthodox???!!! Could you cite the source of these numbers? They sound off by a few hundred percent. 6.5% would be more believable.
While most American Jews - including JINO's - have not visited Israel - this does not negate Israel as an "electoral issue" to American Jews.
The primary 'pitch' of any politician seeking the Jewish vote here is that politician's stand on and his hisotrical support of Israel. I do not remember any Presidential candidate appealing to the Jewish public more through any other issue.
Even if the individuals that you allude to exist in the stereotype that you cast for them - policy towards Israel remains the litmus test for attracting the Jewish voter. The proof of this is from the politicians themselves. Check the record and see. There has been a lot of energy expended historically by Presidential candidates to get the Jewish vote. The don't just eat a bagel and lox for a photo-op and assume that its in the bag. They always bank on their pro-Israel campaign rhetoric to try and convince us that through their pro-Israel stand - they care about us here in the USA.
The Jewish voter knows that there is a direct correlation between his 'apparent' interest in Israel, and his importance to the vote seeker.

All,

I am still not sure I want to get into the middle of this, but oh well.

I believe there is much truth, and the election will again bear this out, that those Jews who adhere to religious orthodoxy will vote Bush in overwhelming numbers.

I travel quite a bit, and in every "traditional community" I've been to, all signs are that the vote there will go to Bush.

And yes, the deeply assimilated American Jews (I find the JINO offensive) have long ago traded their nominal support for Israel for the Berkeley-Chomsky-NY Times-neoliberalism and Kumbaya priorities.

Those religiously Conservative but not Orthodox American Jews seem to feel duty bound to their Progressive roots, but know that Kerry and the New Left will not defend Israel (which matters very much to them) and are leaning Bush.

As for the political funding of candidates, well it will still come from Hollywood, The Greater Bay Area and New York (at least as far as the "big hitters"). And here the Republicans will have to settle for votes and not cash.

Although it continues to diminish, there remains suspicion on the part of American Jews of the Christian Religious Right. If not for this, Bush would be receiving (IMHO) almost 40-50% of the American Jewish vote.

I hate to say this, but I suspect Milton Friedman's right--again--this time about Jews being disproportionately tied to big government spending, et ergo predisposed to the political left. (Think: lawyers, teachers, social workers, and doctors--who, for a long time, have been the principal beneficiaries of government subsidies.)

Jewish businessmen--temple president types--never had much intellectual clout among jews. They follow the clerisy: the rabbis, long ago, and the inellectuals recently.

Foreign policy is an afterthought: Jews don't--well, won't--believe that either Israel or America is in more danger under the left. Why? Because the left is (for reasons already given) the good guys.

Also, for various reasons, the left contains most of the smart guys, except in economics and politics and defense analysis. Top physicists, for instance, are overwhelmingly lefty--because academia is, and, as it is not their field, they generally just absorb it. Jews overestimate smarts. I say that as a (humbly confessed) smart Jew.

MeTooThen,
I apologize for using JINO - this is my first day at this site and I thought it was part of the local vernacular. I will avoid this term in the future.
In April of 2003 I went to the Interfaith Conference on Israel in Washington DC. Alan Keyes, Daniel Pipes, Frank Gaffney, etc. all showed up. Many of the largest Christian Right PACs came. Some Jewish groups - but not the BIG GUNS, one group representing one of the religious parties in the Israeli government, and a few individual Jews also showed up. The majority of attendees by far were Christian. There were some very remarkable things going on at this conference. It became easy to discern that the Christian Right people were there due to their deep religious convictions.
They need Israel to succeed and to survive.

Without a viable Israel - say goodbye to the prophecies that lie at the heart of their creed.

The Jewish groups on the other hand - came for some form or other of material gain.

Historically - most American Jews and the Christian Right - did not pool their resources, because their needs were not mutually consistent.

True the religious Jewish community is always on the defensive in regards to Christian proselytizing of their young. But the religious community only accounts for a minority of Jews.

Since last year - there has been much more activity to increase cooperation between Jews and the Christian Right - and also between Jews and the RNC.

I feel as you do that the RNC is gaining ground. But I don't know how anyone can fairly and accurately measure this gain.

Ariel,

Thank you for the kind remarks.

It is not clear how to measure these gains but this should not inhibit continued political and community involvement.

Whether or not there is, or will be, a rise in the numbers of observant Jews is debatable.

But it appears as a percentage, the traditional communities are growing (I guess it depends on who's counting.)

As far as Christian proselytizing, I suspect that those days have come and gone (in the 70's and 80's).

Assimilated American Jews are more likely to experience proselytizing in the form of "Have you ever wrapped tefillin?" than, "Have you accepted Jesus as your personal Savior?"

And finally, yes, the needs and goals of all Americans of traditional or orthodox communities are converging. Although admittedly, this may not include traditional American Muslim communities.

MeTooThen,

Two last thoughts for today.

1. Is seems that President Bush has less Jews in top positions (i.e. Cabinet level) than his predecesors. Do you think that this has been advantageous for the American Jewish community?

2. What defines a traditional American Muslim?

Ariel,

To your queries:

1) Admittedly, I have never considered this before now. But having done so, I don't think it matters much at all.

2) My experience is that there is tremendous diversity within the American Muslim community, varying degrees of observance, styles/schools of belief, varying adherence to immigrant customs, etc.

I have known and worked with, and called my friends immigrants from Syria, Iraq, Egypt, Turkey, Lebanon, Iran, and Pakistan.

My impression of "traditional" may very well be off-base, but I intended above for it to mean traditional in the religious or observant sense, more than the cultural sense.

I feel most conservatives are whatI've termed American Secular Nice Guys/Gals.They go to religious services on Holy Days/Easter,etc. and feel,"I'm basically a good person;it will all work out for me". But the conservatives seem more open to facing unpleasantness and even the concept of evil than the liberals/left wing.A comment on the Jewish vote shifting to the Republican Party. to some extent.I think most of the shift is coming from male voters.

Ariel - you're a prince amongst men ;)

Thanks.

Ari,
Thank you for your kind words. What did I do to earn them?

Hello folks nice blog youre running