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« Wrong War, Wrong Place, Wrong Time | Main | Shock: Kerry Admits French and German Troops in Iraq "Unlikely" »
October 06, 2004

Even After Debate, New Jersey Is Still a Toss-Up

Kerry leads 49-46, inside the MoE (although barely so).

Who slapped New Jersey with the Smart Stick?

Is there any chance of similarly slapping Michigan?


posted by Ace at 01:07 PM
Comments



Jim McGreevy.

Posted by: someone on October 6, 2004 01:33 PM

Michigan is THE toughest nut...AFL-CIO's strongest state...AFSCME very strong here too...and NEA...and on and on and on...

Bush better be ahead by 5-7 points on election day or they're gonna steal it.

Posted by: superhawk on October 6, 2004 02:13 PM

As a wolverine, I have to believe that if New Jersey can be that close, there's no reason Michigan can't be either. haven't seen any recent polls, but Rassmussen had it tied on the 30th...

Posted by: marc on October 6, 2004 02:23 PM

Analysis (I'm being generous to myself with this description) of Michigan over at my blog; scroll down a bit and leave a comment if you like

Otherwise, Instapundit already linked it but everyone should read ejectejecteject.com

No offense Ace but it's the best posting I've ever read. EVER.

Posted by: Birkel on October 6, 2004 02:34 PM

Bill at ejecteject...excellent rant. Thanks for the tip, Birkel!

Articulated the central issues of strategy in the WoT and Iraq in a way the Bushies can't or won't. Give Bill a White House speechwriter's job if there is a 2nd Term.

While the Jersey vote is still close, Bush's lead continues to shrink as more post-debate polls come out, from around 7 points down to 1.5 in the past 7 days.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/RCP_EC.html

Pennsylvania is now shifted from toss-up to leaning Kerry. Ohio and Iowa have moved from leaning Bush to toss-up. Maine is back with Kerry, as is New Mexico.

If Bush has Binnie stashed in Crawford, now might be a good time to haul him out. Or finally launch the battle to wipe out the terrorists in Fallujah. Or to take some "energy and articulatiousness" pills to get ready for Friday's Kerry debate.

Posted by: Cedarford on October 6, 2004 03:41 PM

Michigan might move towards Bush like NJ did, if they too had a freshly outed gay adulterous governor, who hired his unqualified lover for the top anti-terrorism job in the state at over $100,000 of public funds. Every time NJ voters think of the democrat party, waves of nausea come over them.

Posted by: susan on October 7, 2004 03:26 AM

Are you in Michigan Ace? If so shoot me a note, we'll get together for dinner some time.

Anyway: Bush is well within striking distance in Michigan. It's not that tough a nut to crack. We had a Republican governor, a very popular one, for 12 years, and when he was term-limited out, the Democrat Granholm replaced him, but in a squeaker election victory against an incredibly weak and inept Republican. That same year, Republicans took every single other statewide office, and kept comfortable majorities in both state houses.

No, Michigan is HARDLY unwinnable for Republicans. But the economy's been slower here than in much of the rest of the Union, so it's a tougher slog for him.

Posted by: Dean Esmay on October 7, 2004 06:08 AM
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