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« Wrong War, Wrong Place, Wrong Time | Main | Shock: Kerry Admits French and German Troops in Iraq "Unlikely" »
October 06, 2004

Even After Debate, New Jersey Is Still a Toss-Up

Kerry leads 49-46, inside the MoE (although barely so).

Who slapped New Jersey with the Smart Stick?

Is there any chance of similarly slapping Michigan?


posted by Ace at 01:07 PM
Comments



Jim McGreevy.

Posted by: someone on October 6, 2004 01:33 PM

Michigan is THE toughest nut...AFL-CIO's strongest state...AFSCME very strong here too...and NEA...and on and on and on...

Bush better be ahead by 5-7 points on election day or they're gonna steal it.

Posted by: superhawk on October 6, 2004 02:13 PM

As a wolverine, I have to believe that if New Jersey can be that close, there's no reason Michigan can't be either. haven't seen any recent polls, but Rassmussen had it tied on the 30th...

Posted by: marc on October 6, 2004 02:23 PM

Analysis (I'm being generous to myself with this description) of Michigan over at my blog; scroll down a bit and leave a comment if you like

Otherwise, Instapundit already linked it but everyone should read ejectejecteject.com

No offense Ace but it's the best posting I've ever read. EVER.

Posted by: Birkel on October 6, 2004 02:34 PM

Bill at ejecteject...excellent rant. Thanks for the tip, Birkel!

Articulated the central issues of strategy in the WoT and Iraq in a way the Bushies can't or won't. Give Bill a White House speechwriter's job if there is a 2nd Term.

While the Jersey vote is still close, Bush's lead continues to shrink as more post-debate polls come out, from around 7 points down to 1.5 in the past 7 days.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/RCP_EC.html

Pennsylvania is now shifted from toss-up to leaning Kerry. Ohio and Iowa have moved from leaning Bush to toss-up. Maine is back with Kerry, as is New Mexico.

If Bush has Binnie stashed in Crawford, now might be a good time to haul him out. Or finally launch the battle to wipe out the terrorists in Fallujah. Or to take some "energy and articulatiousness" pills to get ready for Friday's Kerry debate.

Posted by: Cedarford on October 6, 2004 03:41 PM

Michigan might move towards Bush like NJ did, if they too had a freshly outed gay adulterous governor, who hired his unqualified lover for the top anti-terrorism job in the state at over $100,000 of public funds. Every time NJ voters think of the democrat party, waves of nausea come over them.

Posted by: susan on October 7, 2004 03:26 AM

Are you in Michigan Ace? If so shoot me a note, we'll get together for dinner some time.

Anyway: Bush is well within striking distance in Michigan. It's not that tough a nut to crack. We had a Republican governor, a very popular one, for 12 years, and when he was term-limited out, the Democrat Granholm replaced him, but in a squeaker election victory against an incredibly weak and inept Republican. That same year, Republicans took every single other statewide office, and kept comfortable majorities in both state houses.

No, Michigan is HARDLY unwinnable for Republicans. But the economy's been slower here than in much of the rest of the Union, so it's a tougher slog for him.

Posted by: Dean Esmay on October 7, 2004 06:08 AM
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This was her actual complaint. The mushed-up tomato looked like blood so it's a death threat and these violent attacks on me must stop. What is dis bitch, CNN?
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Funniest thing I've read about the Virginia mess. Back when they were hustling the referendum through the assembly both Senators, Warner and Kaine, advised them to go slow and play by the rules. Louise Lucas said she respected them but didn't need advice from the "cuck chair" in the corner. The gerrymandering was overturned and Louise is heading for the big house. Edward G. Robinson voice "where's your cuck now?"
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I posted his post on twitter and it's gotten 25K views so far. Thanks, Smell the Glove
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"Ahhhhh ahh I put my career on the line for Louise Lucas and Jay Jones thinking they'd vault me into presidential contention and we ended up costing Democrats 20 House seats and unleashing a Reverse Dobbs ahhhhh ahhh"
Forgotten 80s Mystery Click That Sums Up the Democrat Communist Party Today
Something is wrong as I hold you near
Somebody else holds your heart, yeah
You turn to me with your icy tears
And then it's raining, feels like it's raining
"It's f**king f**ked."
-- reportedly a genuine comment offered by a "senior Labour source"
Correction: I wrote that Labour is losing 88% (now 87%) of the seats it is "defending." I think that's wrong. The right way to say it is the seats they are contesting -- that is, they don't necessarily already hold these seats, but they have put up a candidate to run for the seat. It's still very bad but not as bad as losing 87% of the seats they already held.
Basil the Great
@BasilTheGreat

🚨ED MILIBAND [a Minister in Starmer's government] SAYS KEIR STARMER WILL RESIGN AS PRIME MINISTER

He has reportedly reassured Labour MP's that Starmer will be resigning following the disastrous results tonight

It's over
"The end of the two party system in the UK" as first the Fake Conservatives and now Labour chooses political suicide rather than simply STOPPING THE INVASION
Incidentally, the only reason this didn't already happen in the US is because of the Very Bad Orange Man (who is right on 85% of all policy calls and extremely, existentially right on 15% of them)
No political party that is NOT also a doomsday religious cult would EVER choose a cataclysmic loss -- and possible extinction as a party -- to support a toxically unpopular favoritism of NON-CITIZEN ILLEGAL MIGRANTS over actual citizen voters.

Only a cult does this.
Now they've lost 84%.
Annunziata Rees-Mogg
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If this continues Labour loses 2,148 seats tonight.

That is much worse than the worst case predictions I’ve seen.

Cataclysmic

Update: They've now lost 88% of the seats they're defending. As I mentioned earlier, I think I heard that London will not bail them out, as many of those Labour seats will probably flip to "Muslim Independent" or Green. Detroit's 5am vote will not save them.
Yup, Labour is losing 80% of its seats...
The British Patriot
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🚨 BREAKING: Labour have lost 80% of all seats contested as of 2:25 AM.<
br> If this continues, Keir Starmer will be out of office next week.

Reform has surged and projected to pick up between 1700-2100 seats.


Wow, up to 1700-2100 seats. It's not incredible that this is happening. It's incredible that the Davos crowd is so absolutely determined to privilege Muslim "migrants" over the actual native population who elects them, no matter how loudly the natives scream that they want to be prioritized, that they will gladly self-extinguish as a party rather than simply representing the interests of their own voters. Astonishing.
Remember, when they call other people "cultists" -- they are the ones so imprisoned in their social reinforcement and discipline bubbles that they will choose political death rather than dare upset the Karen Enforcement Officers of their cult.
Update: Now they've lost 83% of the seats they were defending.
(((Dan Hodges)))
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Reform are basically wiping Labour out in the North. It's not a defeat. It's not even a rout. Labour are simply ceasing to exist.


Nick Lowles
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Tonight’s results are calamitous for Labour. Not just for Keir Starmer's leadership, but for the very future of the party
STARMERGEDDON: In early returns, Reform gains 135 seats, Labour loses 90, the Fake Conservatives lose 36 (and I didn't even know they could fall any further), the Lib Dems lose 4, and the Greens gain 6. Note that the only other party gaining seats is the Greens and they're only gaining a handful of seats.
Update: Reform now up 145, Labour down 98.
Labour projected to lose Wales -- where they've ruled for 27 years.
Fulton County Georgia just discovered 400 boxes of ballots for Labour
Update: REF +156, LAB -107, CON -45
Brutal: In four out of five council seats where Labour is defending, they've lost. 80%.
I'm sure it's not this simple, but Reform is straight taking Labour's and the "Conservatives'" seats. They've lost almost exactly what Reform gained. If understand this right (and warning, I probably don't), all of London's council seats are up for election, and Labour might lose hugely there, as their old voters abandon them for Reform, Muslim Indenpendents, and the Greens.
REF +190, LAB -134, CON -56.
Updates on the Labour collapse in council elections -- which wags are calling #Starmergeddon -- from Beege Welborne. There are about 5000 seats up for grabs, Labour is expected to lose 1,800, Reform will probably gain 1,580, up from... zero. So this would be more than that.
People claim that while Labour has adopted the Sharia Agenda to appeal to the million Muslims it allowed to migrate to the country, those voters are ditching Labour to vote for the Muslim Independent Party or the Greens. Delicious. This shadenfreude is going straight to my thighs.
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Media bias and senationalism are as old as, well, the media:
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That was written by Denny O'Neill and illustrated by, get this, Frank Miller. Editor to the Stars Jim Shooter was in charge at the time.
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