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October 03, 2004

Gallup: It's All Tied Up, Folks

49-49 among likelies, a small 49-47 Bush edge among registered.

And the effects of the debate aren't over yet. This movement is coming earlier and stronger than most pundits, including myself, expected.

I've already said it, but, again, before this thing is over, I'm going to have a heart attack.

Before anyone goes all to pieces, though, bear in mind that Bush's lead was just as ephemeral and soft as Kerry's momentum is at the moment. I think Kerry did himself some real good -- good that won't dissipate, and increased support that will remain permanent -- but that's only a fraction of the current shift of support.

Bush was up, then Kerry, then Bush, now Kerry (sort of). Voter sentiment does seem to be pretty volatile, and votes seem to swing according to whoever's getting the best press of the week. The winner might just be the man who has the last good news before the election.

Or the man who makes the next-to-last-mistake.

The most important effect of Kerry's bounce is on bloggers. Josh Marshall is going to be whistling Zippitty-doo-dah out of his ass, while a lot of conservatives are going to go into a bitter funk for a couple of weeks.

Not me, though.

I'm the blogger with an optimistic vision for the election.

posted by Ace at 09:03 PM

Comments

Tied up?

Not a good sign for an incumbent President.

Factors favoring Kerry:

1. He beat Bush in the foreign policy debate. He had some substance hits, but his style advantages, looking far more Presidential and appearing far stronger, smarter, and articulate - appear to have had a big hit with voters worried Kerry was a weak, vacillating man before they saw his performance.

2. He goes into 2 more debates that will focus on Bush's big areas of weakness - domestic policy.

3. Oil prices up, deficit up, trade imbalance up, illegals up, outsourcing up.

Bush's advantages:

1. He has more money left than Kerry does.
2. He can help reverse the 1st Debate's damage if he proves he can talk intelligently and string together a complete sentence..though he will have a smaller audience.
3. He can get some ads reminding people Teddy Kennedy will cash his Kerry IOU chips in and get to sit down with Kerry, Hillary, Pelosi and get to chose the next 4 Ruth Bader Ginzburgs for the Court.
4. He can strongly suggest the Generals need to take Fallujah and show big enough piles of dead Muslim terrorists that the average American heart is rewarmed.
5. If he does have Bin Laden stashed away in Crawford, now's the time to pull him out.

Posted by: Cedarford on October 3, 2004 09:24 PM

I'm holding on to the Rasmussen numbers tighter than John Kerry holding a rich widow, but I have to admit, I'm feeling pessimistic. There's no reason to think that the domestic debates are going to be any kinder to Bush than the foreign policy debate was. On the contrary, there's plenty of reasons to think they'll be worse.

I've already got the election night "look on the bright side" post in the works.

Posted by: Allah on October 3, 2004 09:32 PM

You guys need some Mullings - go see Rich Galen right now.

Posted by: blaster on October 3, 2004 09:39 PM

The only effect that I've seen as a result of the debate is a massive increase in the outspoken arrogance of Bush-hating liberals.

Posted by: Larry Jones on October 3, 2004 09:42 PM

Take a look at the Gallup though
http://www.gallup.com/poll/content/default.aspx?ci=13237&pg=2

Bush only "lost" for "expressing himself". (I know a lot of people who are great at expressing themselves. They're called theater majors.)

Bush tied with Kerry on "knowing the issues".
Won on "issues you care about", "likeability", "believeability", and wom by a 17 point margin for "tough enough for the job".

Posted by: fat.elvis on October 3, 2004 09:51 PM

I can't hold on to the Rasmussen numbers, since I was so eager to discard them when they showed Bush still tied (and other polls showed him ahead).

Rasmussen seems to hold partisan sampling constant, so their number don't move much, either way.

Rasmussen also seems to show effects later than other polls.

Even though we're tied right now, I think Kerry is essentially ahead. But I don't think this was a knockout blow.

I hate hoping on good news to save us, but there is a jobs number due on Friday.

Posted by: ace on October 3, 2004 09:54 PM

Hey, folks, Kerry is still Kerry. He may shine in the rarified environment of the debate hall, but his track record on the campaign trail has been a disaster. He will revert to type and waffle and flip flop again. He can't help it, he's John Kerry!
Sleep tight, sweet dreams, Bush will come out on top.

Posted by: ricksamerican on October 3, 2004 09:59 PM

Kerry's pollster has just released his newest numbers for the state of Virginia. This new poll reflects the Kerry bounce after last week's debate. As reported earlier Rasmussen has it 49Bush and 43 Kerry. Mason Dixon has it the same. So here is the results after the Kerry bounce. AP reports that 20 of the 30 Kerry staff in the state of Virginia are pulling out of the state.

Posted by: Ralph on October 3, 2004 10:13 PM

The CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll is based on phone calls to 1,012 adult Americans Friday through Sunday. I thought the conventional wisdom was never trust a poll done on the weekend.

Posted by: Major Domo on October 3, 2004 10:23 PM

I can assure you that the Kerry poll that I mentioned is much accurate then the Gallup poll.
No one at Gallup is staking their political life on their polling.

Posted by: Ralph on October 3, 2004 10:29 PM

True. I've only been called once and it was on a weekend. I was probably the only hungover sarcastic well-educated Bush supporter they talked to on a Saturday morning sitting in front of the TV in his boxers just trying to mess with the pollster.

Weekends? Most normal people are out living at life. They're not at home with 30 minutes to spare to talk to a boring pollster.

Posted by: fat.elvis on October 3, 2004 10:33 PM

The cocoon of the media is no less deep than it was several days ago. The Gallup Poll was done over the weekend--favoring Democrats. The Newsweek poll was completely biased and obviously so. The state numbers will tell the story and right now I've seen little/no evidence of big changes on those accounts. Buck up soldiers.

Posted by: Birkel on October 3, 2004 10:54 PM

Grab a Xanax, folks. It's going to be a fun ride, and while a knockout would have been nice, it wasn't realistic to expect.

Bush is Bush - never the most articulate guy on the stage, and he'll remain that way, partly because he has no choice but more importantly, I think, because he's comfortable being who he is.

Much like Ace's view of Rasmussen's poll (didn't believe it back then, and can't hang on it now), I'm unmoved by polling ups and downs, until the one that matters. Even with that, I don't believe we've seen the last poll lead for Bush.

With four weeks or so to go, unless Kerry just runs and hides, he's going to continue providing more waffle-shaped evidence that he's no better than the second best choice we're offered to lead the country.

Posted by: Patton on October 3, 2004 10:56 PM

YEah, don't panic. This is just media hype. Even if Bush won the debate, they still would spin it as a loss

Posted by: Iblis on October 3, 2004 10:59 PM

C'mon guys, check out job approval - it's still at that magic 50%. And these people are waffling around like Kerry on Iraq policy. When push comes to shove, Americans are not going to jump off a horse in-mid war. The closer we get to Election Day, the more apparent that'll be, and the more despirited leftists will protest with a Nader vote. And I haven't even mentioned what The Roe Effect will do in this election, the first real chance to vote for many first-wavers in the Millenial Generation.

In the end, Bush by seven. No oranges for Hoke.

Posted by: The Black Republican on October 3, 2004 11:08 PM

Ace: According to realclearpolitics.com, the electoral college advantage for Bush is still solid. Second, the Iowa Futures Market predicts a big Bush win. Third, the Ray Fair econometric model predicts Bush the winner with 57 percent of the total vote. Bush will win in November despite the MSM's all-out efforts to defeat him. Then it's payback time. Can't wait!

Posted by: Mark Jackson on October 3, 2004 11:24 PM

What's the point of getting so worked up over national polls? Do we have national elections? Also, if polls really meant anything, Dean would be the Dem nominee right now. I'm not one of those 'Bush is a lock' people and I think pessimism is good if it will make Republicans come out and vote, as opposed to assuming it's in the bag and staying home. But, nothing has really changed since before the debate and there's still a month to go.

Posted by: Karol on October 3, 2004 11:37 PM

Just want him to win by enough we don't have to wait another six weeks while the lawyers and judges battle it out. I'd also like to feel more secure about it now. No kidding, I don't know if I could stay here if Kerry got the White House.

Posted by: Billie on October 3, 2004 11:38 PM

Many people who are current strong Bush supporters forget that the country was once giving the guy 80% job approval ratings. His slippage is due to the failure of his tax cuts for the wealthy to trickle down to most Americans in ways they can see, the botched Iraq postwar, a perception of his stubborness and refusal to hold people accountable, and a general failure to move past sloganeering and articulate, communicate what his vision is.

I think the 1st debate was REAL BAD for Bush. I know that the BlogWorld is detail-focused, but I submit the general public base a lot of their vote on style.

Remember half the print journalists listened to the Nixon-Kennedy debate on radio, not TV, then pored over every word each candidate said as it came over the teletype, and pronounced Nixon the clear winner. The other half saw TV and thought the public would be impressed by how Presidential, how attractive JFK's demeanor was compared to dark, dour Dick.

Watching a recast, I honestly thought Nixon did better on style against JFK, than Bush did against his ersatz JFK.

It ought to be an interesting October! With two debates where Kerry can go after Bush's domestic policies, I give the edge to Kerry. Momentum is with Treebeard, with Bush clinging to a small lead.

Hope people who are thinking on voting based on how great Kerry did in the debates handling Dubya - will take a moment to reflect that Prez Kerry gets to put 4 more Ginzburgs on the Supreme Court, in all likelihood.

Posted by: Cedarford on October 4, 2004 12:16 AM

Yes, Cedarford, we know that you think the debate was a major flop. You've only posted this 5 times now?

Kerry will not win and it will be a landslide for Bush, provided this sickening, disheartening, and (most importantly) contagious defeatism doesn't affect election day turnout... It's simple, 2+2 stuff. Why? Kerry has no supporters, he has no plan, he'd the first protectionist since Hoover, the scotus, his global test, and Karl Rove.

While the media will continue to trumpet the debate like the poodles they are, there is no way it will affect the election as Cedarford is projecting.

Posted by: Alan on October 4, 2004 01:35 AM

Ace,

First, allow me to channel the soul of Dr. Johnson for a minute here....

*Falls into trace and then, suddenly, snaps up-right with a flaming gleem in his eye -- while a hauntingly echoed and well modulated voice annoucnes...*

"Sir, had you known the electorate for as long as I have, you would not so readily enquire, but feel rather the Need to resist such a public Display of your own lamentable and incorrigible Ignorance."

Ace and Co. the election is most wisely decided in the electoral college, not the public vote. Were all matters of public policy given over to popular sentiment, nothing would be decded at all. Furthermore, at last notice, Bush is leading by a great if not a resounding margin.

ref: www.electoral-vote.com

I doubt very much that such capricious and empheral swings in voter sentiment shall determine what is already a foregone conculsion.

Posted by: Swiftsure aka Vinny Falcone on October 4, 2004 01:56 AM

Optimistic as you say you are, I still don't understand
why so many Bush supporters are saying that Kerry
won the debate. His foreign policy positions are still
incoherent, except for his pro-Iran and pro-North
Korea ones. Oh yeah, and his anti-Bush/anti-American
ones

Posted by: just a man on October 4, 2004 02:20 AM

I say Kerry had a slight edge because, projecting what I think the average non-informed citizen would think, he came off slightly better.

People who thrive on political blogs, as I do, cannot judge such things using their own experience. You need a certain sense of detachment.

Still, Bush will win. The MMM spin is trying to keep this as a horse race, but it isn't. I keep telling myself that.

Posted by: david on October 4, 2004 02:34 AM

See Fred.

Posted by: on October 4, 2004 02:44 AM

The 90 minutes are over but the first debate isn't really finished. We have yet to see the fallout from 'global test' and the bunker-buster freeze, among other things. If Kerry really did unfold a cheat sheet at the podium, that might negate any putative bounce.

My guess is that the debate didn't change anything. Bush continues to have a 4-6 point lead and an edge in the electoral vote. Unless Kerry converted thousands of Bush supporters in Ohio, his debate performance will have no lasting consequence.

Posted by: lyle on October 4, 2004 05:51 AM

UGH, I can't handle reading this type of bad news on Monday. I had to endure 8 years of Slick Willy, I can't do four years of 'Lurch.'

Posted by: Carin on October 4, 2004 10:02 AM

Is "I'm the blogger with an optimistic vision for the election" anything like Dave Foley's "I'm the guy...the guy with a good attitude toward menstruation?";-)

Sorry...just sounded awfully familiar to a Kids in the Hall fan!

I'm optimistic about the election too...and I also have a good attitude toward menstruation!

Posted by: on October 4, 2004 10:16 AM

49 - 49 sounds highly suspicious to me...there are no undecided voters left? The Fake JFK might have a nice little national "bounce" and some momentum, but like Mark J. above pointed out, he's still getting killed in the electoral college. Maybe I'm still blindly optimistic, but I just don't see where the states are for John-John to pull it out.

Posted by: TSL on October 4, 2004 10:39 AM

Lurch and his staff spend 45 minutes every morning trying to figure out which navy blazer he should wear. Barring fraud, this guy is NOT going to win.

Honestly- I think that if he did win, it wouldn't be the end of the world, and could actually help the Republicans in the long run.

Posted by: lauraw on October 4, 2004 10:56 AM

Don't worry about the polls. My gut feeling is that partly they are off because of changing methodology in the polling, but also due to a desire of the press in general to spin the results to make a closer election [for higher ratings which = mucho advertising $$$, aside from liberal bias towards Kerry].

Remember that polls of "likely voters" always favor Democrats by 5 or even more points. This is because fewer "likely voters" actually show up on Election Day.

Proof of what I'm saying: 1996 Presidential Election. Remember what all the polls were saying going into election night? Clinton lead Dole in every single poll except one by double digits. Some polls predicted Clinton by as much as 25 points. [!] Only the Zogby poll showed him in a single digit lead. Going into the election they showed Clinton ahead by 9 with a 3 point margin of error. After the results were in, it was Clinton by 6, so Zogby was the only poll that was even close, and they were also the only one that was in the margin of error. Zogby seems to have gone downhill since then, though.

I'm suspicious as well about the numbers, current and previous. If there's such a small percentage of undecided voters, how are the numbers changing by almost 10% multiple times virtually overnight? It just doesn't add up.

I doubt Bush really had double digit leads like the polls were saying a couple weeks ago. They were probably sampling a higher percentage of Republican voters than usual for some reason at that time.

In my opinion, take all the polls of likely voters, average them, and add at least 5 points in Bush's favor, and you'll see where it's at.

Conclusion: Don't fret the numbers, fight the good fight, get as many friends and relatives to vote as possible, and don't take anything for granted. But, be upbeat and remember that if things go wrong, there's always another election down the road to set things right.

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