| Intermarkets' Privacy Policy Support
Donate to Ace of Spades HQ! Contact
Ace:aceofspadeshq at gee mail.com Buck: buck.throckmorton at protonmail.com CBD: cbd at cutjibnewsletter.com Doof: doof2112 at proton.me joe mannix: mannix2024 at proton.me MisHum: petmorons at gee mail.com J.J. Sefton: sefton at cutjibnewsletter.com Recent Entries
Happy Hallow-ont
Halloween Cafe Case Closed: Deportations of Criminals Reduce, Get This, Crime GDP Growth Surges to Strong 3.4% The Week In Woke The Spooktacular History of Halloween Traditions and Lore Candidate of Germany's Far-Left Party "Die Linke" Confesses that Islamists Control Her Party and That She Fears They Will Kill Her A Stronk and Empowered Black Female Democrat Judge Routinely Makes Racist Screeds Against Attorneys Before Her, Because She's So Anti-Racist Feds Raid Multiple Fraudulent "Autism Services Centers" in, Get This, Minnesota THE MORNING RANT: Public Radio is Being Squeezed Thanks to Trump Defunding the Corporation for Public Broadcasting Absent Friends
Captain Whitebread 2026
Jon Ekdahl 2026 Jay Guevara 2025 Jim Sunk New Dawn 2025 Jewells45 2025 Bandersnatch 2024 GnuBreed 2024 Captain Hate 2023 moon_over_vermont 2023 westminsterdogshow 2023 Ann Wilson(Empire1) 2022 Dave In Texas 2022 Jesse in D.C. 2022 OregonMuse 2022 redc1c4 2021 Tami 2021 Chavez the Hugo 2020 Ibguy 2020 Rickl 2019 Joffen 2014 AoSHQ Writers Group
A site for members of the Horde to post their stories seeking beta readers, editing help, brainstorming, and story ideas. Also to share links to potential publishing outlets, writing help sites, and videos posting tips to get published.
Contact OrangeEnt for info:
maildrop62 at proton dot me Cutting The Cord And Email Security
Moron Meet-Ups
|
« Rudy Didn't Fail: Guiliani Speech Sways More Voters than McCain or Arnold |
Main
| Gallup: 7 Point Lead »
September 06, 2004
That Newsweek Poll: Too Biased in Favor of Kerry?I have trouble believing this, but DJ Drummond at PoliPundit makes an interesting case. As CrushKerry noted, the Newsweek poll sample had about 37% Republicans and 31% Democrats. (Most people believe actual party identification is something like 31-33% for both.) So, CrushKerry argued (and I agreed) that poll probably overstated Bush's true lead, at least by 20-25%. (And that doesn't even consider other problems the poll might have, like just hitting an unrepresentative sample.) Well, looking deeper at the raw numbers, DJ finds, first, that independents broke this time for Bush 45-40, a big reversal from Kerry's previous lead with this group, and second, that the poll actually found even more people self-identifying as Republican, but the pollsters gave heavier weight to Democratic respondents in order to correct for a too-high sampling of Republicans. Without that weighting, Bush's lead was even bigger. Huge, in fact. The technical mathematical term for it is "freakin' ginormous." The dramatic shift in independents' sentiments alone should be plenty worrisome for Kerry. I don't know what to make of that second point-- I don't think we can make much of it, since this country is obviously not 42% Republican, except to say that Newsweek did at least some counterweighting to reduce the Republican advantage in sampling. Now, Fred Barnes has of course predicted eleven of the last zero poltical realignments in favor of Republicans. But if Time magazine similarly found they were getting a lot more self-identifying Republicans on the phone than they expected, Barnes might be tempted to write his twelfth column predicting that "the country is realigning to become plurality-Republican," and who knows? This time, he might even be right. Susan Lucci eventually got her Emmy, after all. (Take that, those who said I was unduly pessimistic last time out. I balance my undue pessimism with wild-eyed lunatic optimism.) Update: I should have finished reading the analysis. Actually, it's not as bad as all that for the Sinking Senator. It may be worse. But... Rasmussen shows just a single point lead. A lead of 1.2%. One point freakin' two. posted by Ace at 04:07 AM
CommentsThis is why I hate polls, they have too much nuance, just like that John F'ing Krazy presidential candidate. Posted by: Rob on September 6, 2004 10:40 AM
Hey, does anyone think as well that the Time poll that showed a ~10 point upswing for Bush was potentially biased? That poll was based on data obtained before the end of the RNC. I'm thinking that they may have skewed the data to have a high point advantage to Bush prior to the polls taken after the RNC to "show" a net drop *after* the RNC. It's a psychology thing; the media creating the appearence of a lack of momentum and by default shifting "undecideds" to the other side. Someone else could probably explain this better, but it goes with the story: polls are only an estimation based on the data- which can be manipulated or skewed either way- and as such shouldn't be given too much weight. The polls are just an indication. Then again, I'm probably preaching to the converted.... Posted by: hinzman on September 6, 2004 03:35 PM
Per Rasmussen today,the small lead by Bush is FALSE. Please see below. " For those who need to know the answer before the explanation, the bottom line is that the President is ahead by 4 to 5 points at this time. That's a significant improvement over the past few weeks, but not a double digit lead. Posted by: dougf on September 6, 2004 04:01 PM
Post a comment
| The Deplorable Gourmet A Horde-sourced Cookbook [All profits go to charity] Top Headlines
Some Invisible Man costumes (which I hope aren't just AI):
An invisible man with a missing body (I assume the real person is *behind* the costume; A kid in the same kind of costume, put together by his mom; another invisible man; and another great Invisible Man costume, my favorite.
Email confirmed as once used by the Muskily Heterosexual James Talarico found in leak of emails of Fling.com sex dating site:
An email address that James Talarico's attorneys confirmed belonged to and was at one time used by the Texas Democratic U.S. Senate candidate appears in a database search result associated with the adult dating website Fling.com's 2011 data breach. A Fling.com account was created with Talarico's email address just before Talarico began teaching sixth graders. "Well I can't believe the trans-child-obsessed Confirmed Bachelor James Talarico is into group fetish shit," said noted void phantom Doctor Nullity, The Man Who Never Existed I'm not the guy who noted this, I saw it on X (Razib Khan maybe), but The Bulwark could be "audience capture". It might have started as the Frum / 90s-Kristol / NRO classic Eisenhower Republicanism. But nobody was reading the Bulwark except leftists.
Some researchers think the enigmatic and unreadable cipher of the Voynich Manuscript has resisted decipherment because the pages were bound in the wrong order, and putting them in the right order might allow them to finally break the code
But as of now: No Joy It occurs to me that a key step in breaking the Zodiac 340 cipher was putting the three parts of it in the correct order.
Flashback: "trans man" Lawyer freaks out after a judge denies "his" motion. He's ultimately arrested. "He" makes so much drama he was just recruited to develop a new CW show.
I'm just wondering if this flighty high-calorie pyrsyn is also in the news today for other reasons.... Update: No, it's not. Zee/Zem says they's name is like "Rob Hopkins" or something. Story here, courtesy of The Blade
Buck Throckmorton on The Continuing Crisis (American Spectator) podcast discusses prediction markets.
[CBD]
Forgotten 80s Mystery Click
[Song title]
From Anonosaurus Wrecks:
@NBCNews
John Kass retires
He's great. He'll be missed.
Supreme Court to hear arguments on 160-year-ban on home distilleries
It's about time they took on an important case! [CBD] We call on France to exercise restraint when dispersing the freedom fighters on the streets of Paris. These brave warriors for justice must receive immediate humanitarian aid, and their safety must be guaranteed in accordance with international law. Failure to comply will leave us no choice but to bring a case before the ICJ, in close cooperation with that renowned champion of human rights, Afghanistan.-- Israel War Room [CBD]
Forgotten 80s Mystery Click: Garrett's Sus iPod Edition
Everybody wants you Everybody wants your love I'd just like to make you mine, all mine Just imagine he's singing that to a dude. BTW I thought this was a completely different band from Garrett's Sus iPod, the Bay City Rollers.
Shane Gillis tells a mildly amusing joke; the feminazis and their gay best friends freak out! [CBD]
Our very own "Weasel" has won the Nobel Prize For Physics:
A Rigorous Investigation into the Quasi-Static Equilibration of Shoulder-Fired Ballistic Platforms: Rear-Bag-Mediated Suppression of Angular Perturbations and Its Implications for Sub-MOA Precision.[CBD] Recent Comments
Braenyard - some Absent Friends are more equal than others _ :
">>>I don't think the Russians have imported many r ..."
LASue: "Tmj, how did you get your own personal troll doll? ..." Semi-Literate Thug: " 254 Posted by: wth at October 30, 2026 09:47 ..." ChristyBlinkyTheGreat: "Who knew there were tik tok witches til now? I did ..." Braenyard - some Absent Friends are more equal than others _ : "It didn't end when Karol Nawrocki entered the Trib ..." wth: "Why did the Polack cross the road? Trick question ..." NemoMeImpuneLacessit[/i][/b][/u][/s]: "Apparently, in Tsarist Russia almost 10% of the po ..." wth: "Old Polish joke: Why do the Poles bury their dead ..." Dumb Polack Jokes: "How many polacks does it take to have a coup? 7 ..." wth: " what a horndog Kirk was - https://tinyurl.com/u ..." JackStraw: ">>The French started that nonsense about having bo ..." Rodrigo Borgia: "> Well, they are one of about two countries in Eur ..." Bloggers in Arms
RI Red's Blog! Behind The Black CutJibNewsletter The Pipeline Second City Cop Talk Of The Town with Steve Noxon Belmont Club Chicago Boyz Cold Fury Da Goddess Daily Pundit Dawn Eden Day by Day (Cartoon) EduWonk Enter Stage Right The Epoch Times Grim's Hall Victor Davis Hanson Hugh Hewitt IMAO Instapundit JihadWatch Kausfiles Lileks/The Bleat Memeorandum (Metablog) Outside the Beltway Patterico's Pontifications The People's Cube Powerline RedState Reliapundit Viking Pundit WizBang Some Humorous Asides
Kaboom!
Thanksgivingmanship: How to Deal With Your Spoiled Stupid Leftist Adultbrat Relatives Who Have Spent Three Months Reading Slate and Vox Learning How to Deal With You You're Fired! Donald Trump Grills the 2004 Democrat Candidates and Operatives on Their Election Loss Bizarrely I had a perfect Donald Trump voice going in 2004 and then literally never used it again, even when he was running for president. A Eulogy In Advance for Former Lincoln Project Associate and Noted Twitter Pestilence Tom Nichols Special Guest Blogger Rich "Psycho" Giamboni: If You Touch My Sandwich One More Time, I Will Fvcking Kill You Special Guest Blogger Rich "Psycho" Giamboni: I Must Eat Jim Acosta Special Guest Blogger Tom Friedman: We Need to Talk About What My Egyptian Cab Driver Told Me About Globalization Shortly Before He Began to Murder Me Special Guest Blogger Bernard Henri-Levy: I rise in defense of my very good friend Dominique Strauss-Kahn Note: Later events actually proved Dominique Strauss-Kahn completely innocent. The piece is still funny though -- if you pretend, for five minutes, that he was guilty. The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility The Dowd-O-Matic! The Donkey ("The Raven" parody) Archives
|