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« Four Good Pieces on Kerry/SwiftVets | Main | Message: I Care About Margaret Cho »
August 26, 2004

David Frum: The Ad That Worked

The only downside is that we're going to have to hear twenty fucking years of whining over this, just like with Willie Horton.

But the upside to that is that they only whine when they lose.

Update: One of those increasingly-popular "Connections" charts shows the secret links between President Bush, Max Cleland, and the KKK. (The connection is made through Senator/Kleagle Robert Byrd, natch.)

Thanks to Nick, again.

Update: MyPetJawa calls this "freaking brilliant analysis." I haven't read it yet -- I'm posting right before I read it -- but if Prof. Rusty Shackleford says it's brilliant, I have to think it's pretty good.

Rusty goes on to question whether all the people claiming to have "seen or heard about" the SwiftVets ad really have. I think he's wrong. I take his point that a lot of those who've "seen or heard about" the ad haven't seen the whole thing, or have just seen parts of it shown on newscasts with the best parts edited out (sanitized for Kerry's protection).

But some ads, some books, some reports, etc., do cut through the clatter and make an impact, even if people aren't very strong on the details. The dirty little secret about elections is that 90% of the public is relatively uninformed; they make gut level judgments on sketchy knowledge. I expect that's the same with the SwiftVets ad, but to be fair, a lot of the people now doubting Kerry were previously inclined to vote for him based on an incomplete and erroneous understanding of his record, his ideology, and his actual Vietnam record.

Correction: Harlan Pepper points out the NRO chart didn't link the SwiftVets to the KKK, as I wrote. I have corrected.


posted by Ace at 02:17 PM
Comments



Wow, Ace, you're on fire today.

Great series of posts.

Posted by: Dianna on August 26, 2004 02:50 PM

When Ace posts, he posts like an effing hammer!

Posted by: Nick on August 26, 2004 02:57 PM

The new chart at The Corner ties not the SwiftVets, but a pro-Kerry group to the KKK.

Posted by: Harlan Pepper on August 26, 2004 04:17 PM

ooops. My bad. Still, it doesn't affect the comedy. :)

Posted by: Nick on August 26, 2004 04:22 PM

I recently bought "Unfit For Command". One word - devestating. Just finished the fourth chapter, 'War Crimes'. Kerry is such an asshole.

Posted by: Harlan Pepper on August 26, 2004 04:23 PM

That's some great work, Ace.

But I don't get why Rusty likes that Bloomberg piece. After the first paragraph, it reads like a DNC press release. It calls the Swifty charges "unsubstantiated", then lists veterns in Kerry's camp, says independent media [sic] analysis backs up Kerry, says the FCC is investigating, and closes with the old "Republicans gave money to the Swifties, therefore they lie" attack. The polling is good, but that article was a joke.

Posted by: Terry Notus on August 27, 2004 12:29 PM

I don't know why Rusty said it was brilliant. Maybe it dovetails with his take that most people really don't know anything about the ad.

Posted by: ace on August 27, 2004 01:56 PM

Rusty was being sarcastic, I think. Maybe he should have put quotes around "analysis".

Posted by: See Dubya on August 27, 2004 02:22 PM
Posted by: Ralph on November 5, 2004 09:10 PM
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Top Headlines
"It's f**king f**ked."
-- reportedly a genuine comment offered by a "senior Labour source"
Correction: I wrote that Labour is losing 88% (now 87%) of the seats it is "defending." I think that's wrong. The right way to say it is the seats they are contesting -- that is, they don't necessarily already hold these seats, but they have put up a candidate to run for the seat. It's still very bad but not as bad as losing 87% of the seats they already held.
Basil the Great
@BasilTheGreat

🚨ED MILIBAND [a Minister in Starmer's government] SAYS KEIR STARMER WILL RESIGN AS PRIME MINISTER

He has reportedly reassured Labour MP's that Starmer will be resigning following the disastrous results tonight

It's over
"The end of the two party system in the UK" as first the Fake Conservatives and now Labour chooses political suicide rather than simply STOPPING THE INVASION
Incidentally, the only reason this didn't already happen in the US is because of the Very Bad Orange Man (who is right on 85% of all policy calls and extremely, existentially right on 15% of them)
No political party that is NOT also a doomsday religious cult would EVER choose a cataclysmic loss -- and possible extinction as a party -- to support a toxically unpopular favoritism of NON-CITIZEN ILLEGAL MIGRANTS over actual citizen voters.

Only a cult does this.
Now they've lost 84%.
Annunziata Rees-Mogg
@zatzi
If this continues Labour loses 2,148 seats tonight.

That is much worse than the worst case predictions I’ve seen.

Cataclysmic

Update: They've now lost 88% of the seats they're defending. As I mentioned earlier, I think I heard that London will not bail them out, as many of those Labour seats will probably flip to "Muslim Independent" or Green. Detroit's 5am vote will not save them.
Yup, Labour is losing 80% of its seats...
The British Patriot
@TheBritLad

🚨 BREAKING: Labour have lost 80% of all seats contested as of 2:25 AM.<
br> If this continues, Keir Starmer will be out of office next week.

Reform has surged and projected to pick up between 1700-2100 seats.


Wow, up to 1700-2100 seats. It's not incredible that this is happening. It's incredible that the Davos crowd is so absolutely determined to privilege Muslim "migrants" over the actual native population who elects them, no matter how loudly the natives scream that they want to be prioritized, that they will gladly self-extinguish as a party rather than simply representing the interests of their own voters. Astonishing.
Remember, when they call other people "cultists" -- they are the ones so imprisoned in their social reinforcement and discipline bubbles that they will choose political death rather than dare upset the Karen Enforcement Officers of their cult.
Update: Now they've lost 83% of the seats they were defending.
(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges

Reform are basically wiping Labour out in the North. It's not a defeat. It's not even a rout. Labour are simply ceasing to exist.


Nick Lowles
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Tonight’s results are calamitous for Labour. Not just for Keir Starmer's leadership, but for the very future of the party
STARMERGEDDON: In early returns, Reform gains 135 seats, Labour loses 90, the Fake Conservatives lose 36 (and I didn't even know they could fall any further), the Lib Dems lose 4, and the Greens gain 6. Note that the only other party gaining seats is the Greens and they're only gaining a handful of seats.
Update: Reform now up 145, Labour down 98.
Labour projected to lose Wales -- where they've ruled for 27 years.
Fulton County Georgia just discovered 400 boxes of ballots for Labour
Update: REF +156, LAB -107, CON -45
Brutal: In four out of five council seats where Labour is defending, they've lost. 80%.
I'm sure it's not this simple, but Reform is straight taking Labour's and the "Conservatives'" seats. They've lost almost exactly what Reform gained. If understand this right (and warning, I probably don't), all of London's council seats are up for election, and Labour might lose hugely there, as their old voters abandon them for Reform, Muslim Indenpendents, and the Greens.
REF +190, LAB -134, CON -56.
Updates on the Labour collapse in council elections -- which wags are calling #Starmergeddon -- from Beege Welborne. There are about 5000 seats up for grabs, Labour is expected to lose 1,800, Reform will probably gain 1,580, up from... zero. So this would be more than that.
People claim that while Labour has adopted the Sharia Agenda to appeal to the million Muslims it allowed to migrate to the country, those voters are ditching Labour to vote for the Muslim Independent Party or the Greens. Delicious. This shadenfreude is going straight to my thighs.
Oh, and if Starmer loses about as badly as expected, Labour will toss him out of a window Braveheart style and replace him. He will announce he is resigning to spend more time with his Gay Ukrainian Male Prostitutes.
Media bias and senationalism are as old as, well, the media:
spidermanthreatormenace.jpg

That was written by Denny O'Neill and illustrated by, get this, Frank Miller. Editor to the Stars Jim Shooter was in charge at the time.
I always thought the gag was original to the comic book, but in fact the "Threat or Menace" headline was a satirical joke about media bias and sensationalism for a long while. The Harvard Lampoon used it in a parody of Life magazine: "Flying Saucers: Threat or Menace?"
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Leftists who have been drawing Frankendistricts for decades are suddenly upset about Republican line-drawing
Socialist usurper Obama cut commercials urging Virginians to vote for the bizarre "lobster" gerrymander -- but now says gerrymanders are so racist you guys
Obama is complaining about the new Louisiana map -- but here's the thing, the new map has much more compact and rational borders than the old racial gerrymander map
Pete Bootyjudge is whining too. But here's the Illinois gerrymander he supports.
Big Bonus! Under the new Florida congressional map, Debbie Wasserman Schultz will probably lose her seat
And she can't even go on The View because she's ugly a clump of stranger's hair in the bath-drain
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Podcast: CBD and Sefton Charge the Democrats with fomenting violence against the nation with their rhetoric, Virginia redistricting going down the tubes? Trump's bully pulpit is not censorship, Lee Zeldin is a star, J.B. Pritzker is an idiot, and more!
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