On The One Hand, Iran's Economy Is imploding...On The Other Hand, The Mullahs And IRGC Are Willing To Suffer A Lot!
We Need More Hands!

Every second that goes by weakens the Iranian attempts to control the Strait of Hormuz. There are multiple projects underway to create the infrastructure to bypass the chokepoint of Hormuz, and not just pipelines that bypass it. Shale oil, fracking, horizontal drilling, vast improvements in techniques to maximize production in existing wells, reopening huge oil fields like in the North Sea, Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR), and the Trump administration push to make America an energy exporter have all contributed to the decrease in the importance of Hormuz, and Iran's power over the world oil economy.

Guyana is becoming a serious producer, Venezuela's oil industry slide into unimportance has been stopped, even Canada is quietly producing for their customers in the Pacific.

But...the Mullahs and the IRGC are willing to cause massive damage to the people and the economy of Iran to further their geopolitical goal of a religious armageddon. They will not surrender, and they will not relieve the pressure on the people...they simply don't care. Their goal is simple...survive to continue their quest for the destruction of Israel, America, and the West.

But...their blockade, incomplete as it may be, is cementing their position as the enemy of the Gulf states, and it will have far-reaching consequences both diplomatically and economically for years to come. The massive American and Israeli military response to Iran has destroyed most of the military industrial capacity, has destroyed most of their missile stocks and anti-aircraft capability, and has killed a huge number of their senior leadership, which has created a massive power struggle across the Mullahcracy and the IRGC.

But...American resolve has an expiration date. The United States is not in the business of colonialism, and when we tried it, we failed miserably, so "fixing" Iran is not and hopefully will not be a part of our geopolitical goals. The Mullahs and the IRGC believe that simply waiting us out will be a win.

But...economic pressure, coupled with a Western naval presence in the Strait of Hormuz will gradually erode the ability of the Mullahs and the IRGC to control the Iranian people and to project power through their terrorist proxies. It will also take Iran and Hormuz off the front page, since economic warfare and boring escorting of commercial vessels is far less interesting for the hysterical media.

But...President Trump is fanatical about the appearance of a deal, and perhaps he will settle for a public deal that sounds good but has no substance.

But...it is entirely possible that Iran is on the brink. They do not have the foreign exchange to purchase enough gasoline to run their economy, their central planning has been destroyed, the death of Khamenei Senior has left a huge hole in the message being conveyed to the faithful. The Mullahcracy might just wither away.

But...The IRGC is dug in like ticks, and getting rid of them will be a massive undertaking. Even if the Mullahs fade into nothing, the IRGC will be a danger, at least until they become a priority target of the American armed forces. Or even better: the Persian people!

See my point? The perspective on the Iranian situation is complex, and there are rational arguments to be made from most sane sides.

One reason stands out...we are dealing with a mindset that is completely foreign to Western culture. There is no risk/benefit calculation being made in Tehran. There is no sensitivity to civilian casualties. There is no sense of honor or respect during "negotiations." There is no cultural imperative for truth. There is one goal, and the means justifies the end to an extent that most westerners cannot comprehend.

That of course supports one clear strategy...the total destruction of the Mullahs and the IRGC. Whether that happens economically or militarily remains to be seen, but there will be no end to the Iranian Problem until that occurs!

posted by CBD at 12:00 PM

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