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August 26, 2004

Swift Kick: Bush Overtakes Kerry 49-46 Among Registered Voters

Yes, among registered voters, a more liberal leaning group (usually) than likely voters. And it's an LA Times poll besides-- not exactly Republican-friendly.

Even when I first saw the first SwiftVets ad, and "predicted" that it would cost Kerry 2-4 points, I didn't entirely believe it; I was more hopeful than confident.

But the latest polls tend to show those ads were just as powerful as they first seemed:

WASHINGTON -- President Bush heads into next week's Republican national convention with voters moving slightly in his direction since July amid signs that John F. Kerry has been nicked by attacks on his service in Vietnam, a Los Angeles Times Poll has found.

For the first time this year in a Times survey, Bush led Kerry in the presidential race, drawing 49 percent among registered voters, compared to 46 percent for the Democrat. In a Times Poll just before the Democratic convention last month, Kerry held a 2 percentage point advantage over Bush.

That small shift from July was within the poll's margin of error. But it fit with other findings in the Times Poll showing the electorate edging toward Bush over the past month on a broad range of measures, from support for his handling of Iraq to confidence in his leadership and honesty.

Although a solid majority of Americans say they believe Kerry served honorably in Vietnam, the poll showed that the fierce attacks on the senator from a group of Vietnam veterans criticizing both his performance in combat and anti-war protests at home have left some marks: Kerry suffered small but consistent erosion compared to July on questions relating to his Vietnam experience, his honesty and his fitness to serve as commander in chief.
...

With independent voters splitting evenly in the survey between the two men, one key to Bush's tentative new advantage was his greater success at consolidating his base. While just 3 percent of voters who called themselves Republicans said they would vote for Kerry, Bush drew 15 percent of all Democrats, and 20 percent of Democrats who consider themselves moderate or conservative, the poll found.

...

Other key questions produced even more troubling results for Kerry.In the July Times Poll, 53 percent of voters said Kerry in his Vietnam combat missions had demonstrated the "qualities America needs in a president" while just 32 percent said by "protesting the war in Vietnam, John Kerry demonstrated a judgment and belief that is inappropriate in a president."

In the August survey, that balance nudged away from Kerry, with 48 percent saying he had demonstrated the right qualities and 37 percent saying he exhibited poor judgment.

Likewise, the share of voters saying they lacked confidence in Kerry as a potential commander in chief edged up from 39 percent in July to 43 percent now; the percentage that said they were confident in him slipped from 57 percent to 55 percent. Both changes were within the poll's margin of error, yet both tracked with the poll's general pattern of slight Kerry slippage.

...

Now the poll of course shows continued anxiousness about the Iraq War and the economy. I had to cut something from the article, though, and I figured that's just telling us what we already know.

Gallup, I believe, will also be releasing a poll either late tonight or tomorrow.

Thanks to Kirk for the tip, although Kirk doesn't understand that cowbells are for economic news.

For a good poll, I can provide only either this picture of an adorable dog snapped by da Goddess:

or this animated Robot from Lost in Space:

or this still of Tawney Kitaen humping a Jaguar in the Whitesnake video "Here I Go Again":

I would provide cowbell if it were up to me, but I've got my boss looking over my shoulder every five minutes.

Whoa, Whoa, Wait a Minute: The commenter Kerry Is Unelectable cried bullshit on an ABC/WaPo poll showing Kerry losing ground going into his convention. His theory was they were pushing the poll down for Kerry so that the convention would result in a bigger "bounce" -- but of course that bounce would be illusory. But still, it would be a good talking point in favor of Kerry.

I don't know if I buy this sort of crafty-to-the-third-power skullduggery in polling, but I suppose this poll might be goosed for Bush so that his convention will then show him "losing" support.

Update: Allah points out that it's state-by-state voting, and therfore state by state polling, that ultimately counts. I disagree-- only if one candidate fails to win the national election by 2% or less will the state-by-state outcome differ from the national-poll/national-vote outcome.

It should be noted that Bush's state-by-state position has been improving as well. See Rasmussen, for example.

Update: Not a big deal, but Rasmussen's national numbers show Bush pulling ahead now too.

Update: Frequent AoSHQ contributor Kerry is Unelectable sets a high number for Bush's convention bounce.

Isn't this the guy who's always so cautious about the expectations game? What gives, Kerry is Unelectable?

posted by Ace at 01:33 AM

Comments

LA Times has Bush in the lead? Wow, cool. Hasn't that paper been accused of skewing the results for Kerry?

He has a weird, but good momentun, going into the convention.

Posted by: Tom Galvin on August 26, 2004 01:40 AM

Good news, but nationwide surveys aren't especially useful.

Posted by: Allah on August 26, 2004 01:46 AM

Pish-posh. Any candidate ahead by 2 or more points nationally will win the electoral college.

You can set up a chart showing when each state will most likely swing to the GOP based upon the GOP candidate's national performance. Florida may swing at -2, Ohio at -3, New Jersey at +6, etc.

Posted by: ace on August 26, 2004 01:51 AM

Furthermore, there haven't been any national polls for some time, and they're all coming this week. (They said so on Brit Hume.) Those "current" electoral predictions are based in part on polls taken some time ago.

Posted by: ace on August 26, 2004 01:52 AM

As I was reading, I was thinking the same thing you concluded with, re the Wapost manipulation of the polling data.

I don't put much faith in polls done by any news service.

Posted by: krakatoa on August 26, 2004 02:28 AM

Rasmussen? Didn't he fall overboard off the swift boat and now is held in thrall to Kerry for saving his life, like Morgan Freeman was bound to Kevin Costner in Robin Hood?

I wouldn't trust his polls.

Posted by: See Dubya on August 26, 2004 04:02 AM

Tawny Kitean on the hood of a jag! What is worse? That I know who she is and saw Bachelor Party at the cinema, or that I have SEEN Whitesnake in concert. Stop making me feel old!

Posted by: Jennifer on August 26, 2004 10:20 AM

Animated Tawney Kitaen gif? ...or is that too much to ask?

Posted by: El Barto on August 26, 2004 10:31 AM

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Top Headlines

"It's f**king f**ked."
-- reportedly a genuine comment offered by a "senior Labour source"
Correction: I wrote that Labour is losing 88% (now 87%) of the seats it is "defending." I think that's wrong. The right way to say it is the seats they are contesting -- that is, they don't necessarily already hold these seats, but they have put up a candidate to run for the seat. It's still very bad but not as bad as losing 87% of the seats they already held.

Basil the Great
@BasilTheGreat

🚨ED MILIBAND [a Minister in Starmer's government] SAYS KEIR STARMER WILL RESIGN AS PRIME MINISTER

He has reportedly reassured Labour MP's that Starmer will be resigning following the disastrous results tonight

It's over

"The end of the two party system in the UK" as first the Fake Conservatives and now Labour chooses political suicide rather than simply STOPPING THE INVASION
Incidentally, the only reason this didn't already happen in the US is because of the Very Bad Orange Man (who is right on 85% of all policy calls and extremely, existentially right on 15% of them)

No political party that is NOT also a doomsday religious cult would EVER choose a cataclysmic loss -- and possible extinction as a party -- to support a toxically unpopular favoritism of NON-CITIZEN ILLEGAL MIGRANTS over actual citizen voters.

Only a cult does this.

Now they've lost 84%.

Annunziata Rees-Mogg
@zatzi
If this continues Labour loses 2,148 seats tonight.

That is much worse than the worst case predictions I’ve seen.

Cataclysmic

Update: They've now lost 88% of the seats they're defending. As I mentioned earlier, I think I heard that London will not bail them out, as many of those Labour seats will probably flip to "Muslim Independent" or Green. Detroit's 5am vote will not save them.

Yup, Labour is losing 80% of its seats...

The British Patriot
@TheBritLad

🚨 BREAKING: Labour have lost 80% of all seats contested as of 2:25 AM.<
br> If this continues, Keir Starmer will be out of office next week.

Reform has surged and projected to pick up between 1700-2100 seats.

Wow, up to 1700-2100 seats. It's not incredible that this is happening. It's incredible that the Davos crowd is so absolutely determined to privilege Muslim "migrants" over the actual native population who elects them, no matter how loudly the natives scream that they want to be prioritized, that they will gladly self-extinguish as a party rather than simply representing the interests of their own voters. Astonishing.
Remember, when they call other people "cultists" -- they are the ones so imprisoned in their social reinforcement and discipline bubbles that they will choose political death rather than dare upset the Karen Enforcement Officers of their cult.
Update: Now they've lost 83% of the seats they were defending.

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges

Reform are basically wiping Labour out in the North. It's not a defeat. It's not even a rout. Labour are simply ceasing to exist.

Nick Lowles
@lowles_nick

Tonight’s results are calamitous for Labour. Not just for Keir Starmer's leadership, but for the very future of the party

STARMERGEDDON: In early returns, Reform gains 135 seats, Labour loses 90, the Fake Conservatives lose 36 (and I didn't even know they could fall any further), the Lib Dems lose 4, and the Greens gain 6. Note that the only other party gaining seats is the Greens and they're only gaining a handful of seats.
Update: Reform now up 145, Labour down 98.
Labour projected to lose Wales -- where they've ruled for 27 years.
Fulton County Georgia just discovered 400 boxes of ballots for Labour
Update: REF +156, LAB -107, CON -45
Brutal: In four out of five council seats where Labour is defending, they've lost. 80%.
I'm sure it's not this simple, but Reform is straight taking Labour's and the "Conservatives'" seats. They've lost almost exactly what Reform gained. If understand this right (and warning, I probably don't), all of London's council seats are up for election, and Labour might lose hugely there, as their old voters abandon them for Reform, Muslim Indenpendents, and the Greens.
REF +190, LAB -134, CON -56.

Updates on the Labour collapse in council elections -- which wags are calling #Starmergeddon -- from Beege Welborne. There are about 5000 seats up for grabs, Labour is expected to lose 1,800, Reform will probably gain 1,580, up from... zero. So this would be more than that.
People claim that while Labour has adopted the Sharia Agenda to appeal to the million Muslims it allowed to migrate to the country, those voters are ditching Labour to vote for the Muslim Independent Party or the Greens. Delicious. This shadenfreude is going straight to my thighs.
Oh, and if Starmer loses about as badly as expected, Labour will toss him out of a window Braveheart style and replace him. He will announce he is resigning to spend more time with his Gay Ukrainian Male Prostitutes.

Media bias and senationalism are as old as, well, the media:

That was written by Denny O'Neill and illustrated by, get this, Frank Miller. Editor to the Stars Jim Shooter was in charge at the time.
I always thought the gag was original to the comic book, but in fact the "Threat or Menace" headline was a satirical joke about media bias and sensationalism for a long while. The Harvard Lampoon used it in a parody of Life magazine: "Flying Saucers: Threat or Menace?"

Hamas is Humiliating Trump's 'Board of Peace'
[Hat Tip: TC] [CBD]

Tucker Carlson is pretty sure Trump is a wizard

Ted Turner Dies At 87 [CBD]

Podcast: Starting a new season, CBD and Sefton discuss their personal journeys to conservative principles, is Nick Shirley the beginning of a trend?, Iran trying to reignite the war, the Left attacks itself, even on "Best Guitarist" lists, and more!

TJM definitively ranks the films of Billy Wilder, like Some Like It Hot

TJM talks about Billy Wilder

Democrat Congresswoman Sara Jacobs cites Me-Again Kelly, Cavernous Nostrils, Alex Jones and Tuq'r Qarlson as proof that concerns about Trump's mental health are "bipartisan"
As Bonchie from Red State says: Know the op when you see it.

Leftists who have been drawing Frankendistricts for decades are suddenly upset about Republican line-drawing
Socialist usurper Obama cut commercials urging Virginians to vote for the bizarre "lobster" gerrymander -- but now says gerrymanders are so racist you guys
Obama is complaining about the new Louisiana map -- but here's the thing, the new map has much more compact and rational borders than the old racial gerrymander map
Pete Bootyjudge is whining too. But here's the Illinois gerrymander he supports.

Big Bonus! Under the new Florida congressional map, Debbie Wasserman Schultz will probably lose her seat
And she can't even go on The View because she's ugly a clump of stranger's hair in the bath-drain

Podcast: CBD and Sefton Charge the Democrats with fomenting violence against the nation with their rhetoric, Virginia redistricting going down the tubes? Trump's bully pulpit is not censorship, Lee Zeldin is a star, J.B. Pritzker is an idiot, and more!