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« Clinton's "Miracle Economy" vs. Bush's "Jobless Economy" | Main | Which SAT's Did He Take? »
August 03, 2004

Of Bounces and "Suspicious Timing"

A week ago, the WashPost & ABCNews put out a poll showing Bush gaining big.

The poster called "Kerry is Unelectable" called shenanigans on that poll. He thought the poll was deliberately biased in favor of Bush so as to produce a big Kerry bounce after the convention. In other words, the lower Kerry's support seemed to be right before the convention, the bigger the "bounce" he would show afterwards.

Now, I didn't really buy that theory then, and I don't know if I do now, either. But I do have to note that Kerry Is Unelectable at least called the outcome of the two polls, if not the chicanery behind them. In fact, it's the ABCNews/WashPost polls that are showing the biggest Kerry "bounce," all based off of the cratering Kerry support reported in the previous poll. Had that earlier poll shown results more in-line with other polls, the new poll wouldn't show a bounce at all.

Kausfiles (August 3 entry) dismisses that earlier poll as a likely outlier, and decides that Kerry probably got little if any bounce at all.


posted by Ace at 05:18 PM
Comments



Good. I'm glad Kerry didn't bounce.

Posted by: Maranna on August 3, 2004 07:30 PM

I'd like to see Kerry bounce.

You know, the way you bounce when your parachute doesn't open.

Posted by: Brian B on August 3, 2004 07:31 PM

I've pointed this out in another thread before, but I'm gonna go ahead and do it again while I take my victory lap. (Even though you still have your doubts about my predictive talents, Ace.) I called the no-bounce convention on July 12.

This isn't so much boasting as it is taking my rightful place in history next to Nostradamus and John the Revelator.

Posted by: Kerry Is Unelectable on August 3, 2004 07:31 PM

When I saw the lack of a bounce, my first thought was, "Hey, I remember seeing that predicted by that guy on Ace's blog ... um, whatizname ... uh ... Shoot, if only he had taken his place in history next to, for example, Nostradamus and John the Revelator, THEN I'd remember who it was!"

Posted by: Aaron on August 3, 2004 07:36 PM

Isn't this new WaPo poll another one of those supsect polls that over-poll Democrats? It's a joke that we even have to consider the possibility that the poll was rigged.

Off-topic: I guess Kerry's people forgot what Gore's people did a few days before the election in 2000. (The Drudge dirtiest trick ever story.)

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