Intermarkets' Privacy Policy
Support


Donate to Ace of Spades HQ!


Contact
Ace:
aceofspadeshq at gee mail.com
Buck:
buck.throckmorton at protonmail.com
CBD:
cbd at cutjibnewsletter.com
joe mannix:
mannix2024 at proton.me
MisHum:
petmorons at gee mail.com
J.J. Sefton:
sefton at cutjibnewsletter.com


Recent Entries
Absent Friends
Bandersnatch 2024
GnuBreed 2024
Captain Hate 2023
moon_over_vermont 2023
westminsterdogshow 2023
Ann Wilson(Empire1) 2022
Dave In Texas 2022
Jesse in D.C. 2022
OregonMuse 2022
redc1c4 2021
Tami 2021
Chavez the Hugo 2020
Ibguy 2020
Rickl 2019
Joffen 2014
AoSHQ Writers Group
A site for members of the Horde to post their stories seeking beta readers, editing help, brainstorming, and story ideas. Also to share links to potential publishing outlets, writing help sites, and videos posting tips to get published. Contact OrangeEnt for info:
maildrop62 at proton dot me
Cutting The Cord And Email Security
Moron Meet-Ups






















« RNC Video Documents Kerry's Changeable Beliefs About War and Peace | Main | Brilliantly Funny Piece at NRO's The Corner »
July 27, 2004

ABC/WashPo Shock Poll: Bush Gaining Big

Does that headline, errrm, overstate the findings of the poll? Well, I'm thinking about applying to the New York Times as a political reporter; I'm emulating Adam Nagourney. I plan to use that headline as one of my "clips."

But, in all seriousness, it's the internals that really surprise.

Kerry has lost support against Bush in trust to handle five of six issues tested in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll, including terrorism, Iraq, taxes and even health care. And Kerry's ratings on personal attributes β€” honesty, strong leadership, consistency, empathy and others β€” have softened as well.

...

The bottom line has shifted only very subtly. Head-to-head, the Massachuestts senator has slipped from a slight lead in late June to a dead heat today, with 49 percent support for Bush and 48 percent for Kerry among registered voters. Including Ralph Nader, it's 48 percent-46 percent-3 percent.

Better but not good. But hang on there.

Here's the really stunning part. Asked who the voters trusted to better handle issues...

Terrorism B55 v. K37 (was 48 v. 47 -- that's a 17 point swing)

Taxes B49 v K43 (was 41 v. 53 -- that's a stunning reversal)

Health Care B44 v. K47 (was 38 v. 56 -- from a trouncing to near-parity)

Iraq B52 v K40 ( was 49 v 47 -- a nine point swing)

Education B44 v K45 (was 43 v 52 -- nine-point deficit to near-parity)

Economy B47 v K46 (was 45 v 50 -- five point deficit to near parity, slightly ahead)

I don't know if this poll is right or one of the 5% that will just be wrong, but it seems to me that Kerry can't win when he's behind big on the war, slightly behind on the economy, and only slightly ahead on the Mommy issues.

An improving economy and the handover of authority in Iraq are among the likely factors influencing these assessments. So, too, is the attention focused on terrorism by the release of the Sept. 11 commission report last week. The nation's response to 9/11 has been Bush's finest hour in public approval; focus on it accrues to his advantage.

Probably the single most important advance for Bush on the issues in this poll is his rating for handling terrorism. Fifty-seven percent of Americans now approve, up from 50 percent last month. And registered voters trust Bush over Kerry to handle terrorism by 55 percent to 37 percent, compared with an even split, 48 percent to 47 percent, a month ago.

Among specific groups that are key to Kerry's chances, since June he has lost 13 points among women in trust to handle terrorism, 11 points among moderates and eight points among independents.

Who do women, moderates, and Independents trust on terrorism?

Women B46 v K43 (was 40 v 56 -- nice turnaround)
Moderates B40 v K43 (was 42 v 54 -- another nice turnaround)
Independents B50 v K40 (was all knotted up at 48-48 -- ten point lead with Independents. Nice.)

...

On the economy, public perceptions, while hardly enthusiastic, are their best (46 percent positive, 53 percent negative) in ABC/Post polls since July 2001. And Bush's approval rating for handling the economy, while not good, is better β€” up eight points since March, to 47 percent. Economic sentiment was vastly more sour at this time in 1992, when Bush's father was on his way to losing a second term.

This President Bush does remain vulnerable on his economic performance; 41 percent of Americans say most people have gotten worse off financially since he took office, while just 15 percent say most people are better off. That "worse off" number, though, is down from a high of 52 percent last fall β€” and it was worse still, 61 percent, in summer 1992.

Lots of good stuff here.

No Matter How Cynical I Try To Be, I Just Can't Keep Up Update: Kerry is Unelectable calls shenanigans on this poll, for an interesting reason:

This is meant to give the appearnace of a John Kerry boost after the convention. There will be no real gain for Kerry, the media have recognized that, and now they are doing their damnedest to manufacture one. Kerry has to have some kind of momentum post convention or else everyone will recognize he has no chance of winning and Donks will be discouraged and won't show on Nov.2. This poll is completely false.

Hmmmm... I don't know. I guess we'll have some idea in a week.


digg this
posted by Ace at 03:34 PM

| Access Comments




Recent Comments
Seems Legit: "How odd, I thought everyone understood that electr ..."

rickb223 Gold & Silver Spot Prices [s][/b][/i][/u]: "You’d think they would’ve come up with ..."

Commissar of Plenty and Lysenkoism in Solidarity with the Struggle : "MiG-29 has two sets of intakes Bonus hole. ..."

It's me donna : "270 242 To be fair, Elon did advise that there isn ..."

West Frisian Women's Auxiliary : "The red head gene mutation also enables them to dr ..."

eleven: "If there wasn't a steel re-enforced concrete wall ..."

SMOD: "DC_Draino @DC_Draino Think about this If Tr ..."

Sponge - F*ck Joe Biden: "[i]thus, his push to ship congolese lithium mining ..."

garrett: "What is the increased Mass of an Electric School B ..."

Thomas Paine: "242 To be fair, Elon did advise that there isn't e ..."

Skip : "Bet they won't get 10 years of use out of a EV Bus ..."

Sponge - F*ck Joe Biden: "[i]They handle 25% more pain than others, and repo ..."

Recent Entries
Search


Polls! Polls! Polls!
Frequently Asked Questions
The (Almost) Complete Paul Anka Integrity Kick
Top Top Tens
Greatest Hitjobs

The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon
A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates
Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny
More Margaret Cho Abuse
Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny
Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman
Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format
John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia
World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading
Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree
Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears
Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed"
Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility
Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips
They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan
Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq
Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town
When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool
What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means
Wonkette's Stand-Up Act
Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour
Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider
My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty
Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA
An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear
The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report!
Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet
The House of Love: Paul Krugman
A Michael Moore Mystery (TM)
The Dowd-O-Matic!
Liberal Consistency and Other Myths
Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias
John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate
"Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long)
The Donkey ("The Raven" parody)
Powered by
Movable Type 2.64