Ace of Spades HQ

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June 30, 2004

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs... "Nearly a Million Jobs in 100 Days"

Consensus estimate: 250,000 in June, slightly beating May's 248,000.

There's the possibility of upward re-adjustments of previous months, which is something we've seen again and again during this boom. And of course we could get another pleasant surprise, and see even more jobs than this created.

But I actually think that the period of positive surprises is passing us; I think that economists have adjusted their thinking, and that therefore the estimates won't necessarily be lower than the real numbers anymore. We'll start seeing estimates that are high about half of the time and low about half of the time.

On to the cowbell:

WASHINGTON, June 30 (Reuters) - U.S. employment likely surged again in June, taking gains this year to some 1.4 million jobs and bolstering President George W. Bush's economic record ahead of the November election, analysts said onWednesday.

Economists believe 250,000 jobs were created this month, virtually matching May's jump of 248,000, though the unemployment rate probably will not budge from 5.6 percent because newly hopeful job-seekers are returning to the job market.

"I think the gains will be quite widespread again, and as we saw in April and May, we are likely to create slightly more higher-paying than lower-paying positions," said Lynn Reaser, chief economist at Banc of America Securities.

Even if the unemployment rate does not decline, analysts expect the Labor Department's closely watched payrolls report, due on Friday, to confirm broad strength in what months ago was still only a tepid economic recovery.

The creation of nearly a million jobs in the last three months ended years of worry about the slow recovery from the 2001 recession and cemented expectations the Federal Reserve will begin raising interest rates to head off inflation.

While 1.2 million jobs have been lost since Bush took office, that deficit could easily be erased if hiring continues at its recent pace, and talk of Bush being the president with the worst job record since Herbert Hoover has faded.

And how! As others have pointed out, we knew the economy was booming when the liberal media stopped asking Bush about it.

For three years they wanted to talk about nothing but the economy. Veritable economic Chatty Kathy dolls, they were.

And then, suddenly-- thin-lipped silence. No more talk of "the Bush economy."

There's your leading economic indicator, right there.

"The economy has turned very sharply in Bush's direction, so his biggest weakness is becoming a strength," said Cary Leahey, senior U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities.

The shift in political rhetoric from the "jobless recovery" lament of the Democrats to "nearly a million jobs in 100 days" of the Bush administration appears to have reached consumers, whose confidence levels hit the highest level in two years in June, according to a Conference Board report this week.

Finally.

And yet no credit to Ace of Spades HQ.

Screwed again. I blame Instapundit for this slight.

...

Longer hours and fatter paychecks are seen by experts as evidence the economy is on the threshold of even stronger job gains in the months ahead.

Even stronger job gains in the "months ahead," which, I'm sure you all realize, are also the "months ahead" of the November election.

Three words:

Cow. Frickin'. Bell.

posted by Ace at 03:13 PM

Comments

Great article. I would just like to state, for the record, that The Cowbell is funnier every time I see it.

Posted by: Beatnik Joe on June 30, 2004 03:29 PM

It's almost time to break out the gold-plated diapers.

Posted by: Aaron on June 30, 2004 03:35 PM

Aaron,

I've been wearin' gold-plated diapers since the 8% growth back in the third quarter of 2003.

Beatnik,

Thanks. I have to say, once again, that when I went looking for an alternate "siren" for economic news, it was RDBrewer who suggested the cowbell.

I've gotten an awful lot of mileage out of his cowbell.

Posted by: Ace on June 30, 2004 03:42 PM

The bits he did with the fat guy & Rupert, where he'd tell them to say ridiculous things to people on over a hidden microphone/receiver, and the funny stuff he did ordering from the drive-through at Taco Bell-- those were the only really funny bits he's done in 10 years or more.

They were funny. But they were also pretty much direct rip-offs of Jerky Boys skits.

Posted by: Ace on June 30, 2004 03:48 PM

Ooops. Wrong thread.

Posted by: Ace on June 30, 2004 03:48 PM

Ace, I have a bit of criticism for this post. While one-sidedly pointing out the large number of new jobs created by the booming, throbbing Bush economy, you failed to mention the darker side of the news.

The reality is that, while nearly a million jobs have been created in a short time span, those jobs are being performed by only one thousand people.

That's right, the evil, greedy capitalist pig-dog Repuke-licans don't want you to know that 1,000 people now have to work 1,000 jobs each just to make ends meet! So what if McDonalds, Wendys and Arbys all hired an extra cashier if all three positions are held by the same guy!!!

Not that I have any proof of this, or anything, but it's the only reasonable explanation.

Shame on Bush, and shame on you.

Posted by: Aaron on June 30, 2004 05:07 PM

Yeah. Cowbell. Lotso jobs.

Wake me up, fellas, when the economy is working...for me.

Posted by: Nicholas Kronos on June 30, 2004 05:10 PM

As usual, the Bushies are overlooking what happens when you compare the quartile differential with the standard deviation of the liquidity trap. Trust me, on this folks; if you look at those numbers, we're headed over the cliff.

When President Clinton was in office, the quartile differential and the standard deviation of the liquidity trap were golden. At least twice what they are now.

Posted by: Paul "Pee-wee" Krugman on June 30, 2004 05:12 PM

It's gotta be a bad sign for JK when he borrows a theme from the Dole campaign on the economy (middle class squeeze).

Where's Joe?

Posted by: Dave in Texas on June 30, 2004 08:17 PM

Yours truly got a job 2 weeks ago after a couple of blissful months of unemployment. I couldn't fight the call of the cowbell.

Posted by: Moonbat_One on June 30, 2004 10:46 PM

Yours truly got a job 2 weeks ago...

Congratulations, Moonbat!

Posted by: Ace on July 1, 2004 02:39 PM

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