Wednesday Morning Rant

This week, CNBC published their insane lists of the best and worst states. Much fun has been poked at CNBC in the wake of these lists, especially their list of worst states. The ranking is almost purely political. Not enough kowtowing to trannies? Bad state. Not enough unions? Bad state. Not enough abortion? Bad state. One of the few objective measures in the qualification for "worst" status is crime - and even then, if you subtract the urban (that is, Democrat) centers from the statewide figures, the numbers tend to start collapsing. The list of "good" states is much the same. They do this every year, but this year is particularly absurd and the commentary has been everything from outrage to bafflement to guffawing laughter, all of which seem more or less appropriate.

It's absurd and low-value on its face, and everyone can plainly see it. So what gives, beyond the obvious appeal of clickbait to a dying enterprise? I suspect that this pair of articles was a trial balloon, much like the Party sent up during COVID using its preferred high-brow outlet, The Atlantic. This may be the low-brow equivalent. If this bears out, expect a a period of relative quiet on this topic, followed by an increasing drum-beat of articles from more outlets about how awful the "bad" states and those like them are, and how great the "good" sates and those like them are. There is a reason for this if it happens.

It is likely waning now, but we're coming off one of the largest peacetime migrations in American history. A lot of people have moved in the past decade, and not just down the street or to a better neighborhood. It is plain that on CNBC's list, "red states" are bad and "blue states" are good, but there's more going on over the covers when you look at population. Per the Census estimates from April, 2020 as compared to July, 2025, the US total population increased by 3.1%. That is the baseline. So what about the best and worst?

CNBC "Worst" States
- Tennessee: +5.83%
- Texas: +8.78%
- Indiana: +2.75%
- Louisiana: -0.85%
- Georgia: +5.50%
- Utah: +8.17%
- Missouri: +1.88%
- Alabama: +3.34%
- Oklahoma: +4.14%
- Arkansas: +3.43%

CNBC "Best" States
- Vermont: +0.25%
- New Jersey: +2.79%
- Minnesota: +2.17%
- Connecticut: +2.24%
- Hawaii: -1.54%
- New Hampshire: +2.74%
- Virginia: +2.88%
- North Dakota: +2.60%
- Massachusetts: +1.72%
- Nebraska: +2.86%

Of CNBC's 10 "worst" states, seven of them grew population faster than the United States. Of CNBC's 10 "best" states, zero of them grew faster than the United States overall. In real terms, the entire "best" list has lost population over the past five years. Its "worst" states include most of the big "red" states, but it's "best" list doesn't include several of the big "blue" states. As a bonus, let's look at a handful of big, major-player states that didn't make either list:
- Illinois: -0.80%
- New York: -1.00%
- California: -0.51%
- Florida: +8.93%
- Ohio: +0.86%
- Arizona: +6.51%

Ouch. Deep blue California, New York and Illinois all shrank in nominal terms. On the red side, Florida grew even more than Texas and Ohio shrank in real terms. Purple Arizona grew more than twice as fast as the country as a whole.

The gigantic migration of the past several years is going to have profound consequences on electoral distribution and power dynamics - especially if (and it is a big "if") the red state population magnets remain red states. Population movement can cause major political and cultural change, which we've seen writ large as some states of the Interior West fell like dominoes, moving from red or purple to solid blue and how Florida moved from purple to red (thanks in large part to electoral reform and reduced cheating, but still...). If this migration serves to reinforce rather than degrade the targets of the migration, the ripples through the power structure are barely even being felt yet. I think this is what the establishment fears, is why CNBC went full retard with their lists this year - and why I expect to see more excoriation of the popular red states and more articles about how wonderful the blue states are.

People have spent the better part of a decade voting not just with their ballots or with their wallets, but with their feet. This has also been largely ignored by the mainstream, which is notable because this has been a big and consequential realignment spread over years. During this time, most of the establishment - regardless of nominal party affiliation - has been pretending it isn't happening. It is too big to continue ignoring it and I think this is a sign that the establishment is finally starting to acknowledge what has happened and to attempt to slow any more motion in the same direction. If this assumption is correct and this is the establishment's motivation, they waited far, far too long. The horses are out of the barn. The Great Migration has already redrawn the map. A media salvo and associated pressure campaigns now will be too little, too late.

The only real question is whether the Great Migration reinforces conservatism at its destinations, or whether the red states will fall. If this pair of articles is indeed a trial balloon and more follow with greater intensity and frequency, it will be a strong indicator that the establishment fears that the Great Migration is a reinforcing trend for its enemies - that is, for Americans.

posted by Joe Mannix at 11:00 AM

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