If it's a deal, it's the kind of deal to make: we get everything he gets nothing.

He may have his skin for now, but that can be taken from him at any time.

It's the same sort of deal they gave the insurgents in Fallujah. Iraqis in nominal charge of the place, lots and lots of dead martyrs, and not much appitite to tangle with the Americans head-on.

Unfortunately, its not as simple as that. In the Arab world, survival often gets inflated into victory in the minds of the masses. Remember, Saddam actually said (and apparently believed) that he WON the first Gulf War, simply because he survived and stayed in power. We said we would bring Sadr to justice. If we don't, he will be able to say he went head-to-head against the mighty United States and won. True, he probably lost a lot of militia members ("martyrs" as far as they are concerned) - in any case, there are always more where they came from.

This is the kind of deal that can easily come back and haunt us.